scholarly journals Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s

2004 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 115-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert B Barsky ◽  
Lutz Kilian
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Macroeconomic Fluctuations ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Reverse Causality ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Political Events ◽  
The Us ◽  
Oil Shock

Increases in oil prices have been held responsible for recessions, periods of excessive inflation, reduced productivity and lower economic growth. In this paper, we review the arguments supporting such views. First, we highlight some of the conceptual difficulties in assigning a central role to oil price shocks in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations, and we trace how the arguments of proponents of the oil view have evolved in response to these difficulties. Second, we challenge the notion that at least the major oil price movements can be viewed as exogenous with respect to the US macroeconomy. We examine critically the evidence that has led many economists to ascribe a central role to exogenous political events in modeling the oil market, and we provide arguments in favor of ‘reverse causality’ from macroeconomic variables to oil prices. Third, although none of the more recent oil price shocks has been associated with stagflation in the US economy, a major reason for the continued popularity of the oil shock hypothesis has been the perception that only oil price shocks are able to explain the US stagflation of the 1970s. We show that this is not the case.

Exploring the inflationary effect of oil price in the US

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amine Lahiani
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to explore the effect of oil price shocks on the US Consumer Price Index over the monthly period from 1876:01 to 2014:04.Design/methodology/approachThe author uses the Bai and Perron (2003) structural break test to split the data sample into sub-periods delimited by the computed break dates. Afterwards, the author uses the quantile treatment effects over the full sample and then, by including sub-periods dummies to accommodate the selected structural breaks that drive the relationship between inflation and oil price growth.FindingsThe findings include a decreased transmission effect of oil price changes on inflation in recent years; a varied elasticity of inflation to the growth rate of oil prices across the distribution; and, finally, evidence of asymmetry in the relationship between the growth rate of oil prices and inflation, with a higher transmission mechanism for decreasing rather than increasing oil prices.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should remain alert to monitoring potential inflation increases and should take precautionary measures to anchor inflation expectations, because inflation reacts differently to positive and negative oil price shocks. Moreover, authorities should consider the asymmetric reaction of inflation to oil price shocks to adopt an appropriate monetary policy strategy to achieve the price stability target.Originality/valueThe paper used a quantile regression model with structural breaks, which has not yet been used in the literature.

Monetary policy and the effect of the transfer of oil prices to inflation

2020 ◽  
pp. 41-50
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
I. D. Medvedev
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
The Impact

The paper examines the impact of oil price shocks on inflation, as well as the impact of the choice of the monetary policy regime on the strength of this influence. We used dynamic models on panel data for the countries of the world for the period from 2000 to 2017. It is shown that mainly the impact of changes in oil prices on inflation is carried out through the channel of exchange rate. The paper demonstrates the influence of the transition to inflation targeting on the nature of the relationship between oil price shocks and inflation. This effect is asymmetrical: during periods of rising oil prices, inflation targeting reduces the effect of the transfer of oil prices, limiting negative effects of shock. During periods of decline in oil prices, this monetary policy regime, in contrast, contributes to a stronger transfer, helping to reduce inflation.

scholarly journals Globalization, Endogenous Oil Price Shocks and Chinese Economic Activity

2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 39-64
Author(s):  
Gulzar Khan ◽  
Adiqa Kiani ◽  
Ather Maqsood Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Macroeconomic Activity

Using a structural vector autoregressive model, this study investigates the extent to which international oil price shocks have influenced the Chinese economy over the period 1991–2014. Given China’s intensified macroeconomic activity and its increasing demand for energy resources, we also examine the endogenous response of international oil prices to economic conditions in the country. To that end, we derive and empirically estimate a small open-economy New Keynesian model for China and the rest of the world. Our results show that the Chinese economy is relatively more sensitive to global economic conditions than to domestic policy actions. Global productivity shocks appear to be the most important variable causing Chinese macroeconomic activity through trade, where oil prices impact aggregate demand negatively.

scholarly journals Inflation Expectations and the Pass-Through of Oil Prices

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
Knut Are Aastveit ◽  
Hilde C. Bjørnland ◽  
Jamie L. Cross
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Pass Through

Abstract Inflation expectations and the associated pass-through of oil price shocks depend on demand and supply conditions underlying the global oil market. We establish this result using a structural VAR model of the global oil market that jointly identifies transmissions of oil demand and supply shocks through real oil prices to both expected and actual inflation. We demonstrate that economic activity shocks have a significantly longer lasting effect on inflation expectations and actual inflation than other types of real oil price shocks, and resolve disagreements around the role of oil prices in explaining the missing deflation puzzle of the Great Recession.

scholarly journals Oil Price Shocks and Economic Activity: The Asymmetric Cointegration Approach in South Africa

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 685-713 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ntokozo Nzimande ◽  
Simiso Msomi
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Asymmetric Response ◽  
Asymmetric Cointegration

This study examines the link between oil prices and economic activity proxied by gross domestic product in the context of South Africa. The study employs the asymmetric approach proposed by Schorderet (2004) and advanced by Lardic and Mignon (2008). Asymmetric cointegration is used because it is believed that increasing and decreasing oil prices do not have similar or equal impacts on economic activity. In this study we document evidence for an asymmetric response of economic activity to oil price shocks. Further, our findings suggest that negative oil price shocks are important relative to positive oil price shocks.

Identifying asymmetric responses of sectoral equities to oil price shocks in a NARDL model

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abderrazak Dhaoui ◽  
Julien Chevallier ◽  
Feng Ma
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Asymmetric Responses ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Nardl Model

AbstractThis study examines the asymmetric responses of sector stock indices returns to positive and negative fluctuations in oil prices using the NARDL model. Our empirical findings support indirect transmissions of oil price fluctuation to the financial market through industrial production and short-term interest rate. Furthermore, both direct and indirect impacts of oil price shocks on stock returns are sector dependent. These results are with substantial policy implications either for investors or for policymakers. They mainly help government authorities to reduce the instability in financial markets caused by the major oil price shocks. The analysis of the impact of oil price shocks on stock markets also helps the financial market participants to adjust their decisions and revise their coverage of energy policy that is substantially affected by the turbulence and uncertainty in the crude oil market. Finally, based on the forecast of the oil price shocks effects, the central bank should adjust the interest rate in order to face up to the inflation rate induced by oil prices since oil prices act as an inflationary factor.

scholarly journals NONLINEARITIES AND THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF OIL PRICES

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (S3) ◽  
pp. 364-378 ◽  
Author(s):  
James D. Hamilton
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Macroeconomic Effects

This paper reviews some of the literature on the macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks with a particular focus on possible nonlinearities in the relation and recent new results obtained by Kilian and Vigfusson [http://www-personal.umich/~lkilian/kvsubmission.pdf (2009)].

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