The Long-Term Effects of UI Extensions on Employment

2012 ◽  
Vol 102 (3) ◽  
pp. 514-519 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes F Schmieder ◽  
Till von Wachter ◽  
Stefan Bender
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Insurance ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Employment Effects ◽  
Unemployment Spell ◽  
Unemployment Spells

The majority of papers analyzing the employment effects of unemployment insurance (UI) benefit durations focus on the duration of the first unemployment spell. In this paper, we make two contributions. First, we use a regression discontinuity design to analyze the long-term effects of extensions in UI durations. These estimates differ from standard estimates in that they incorporate differences in UI benefit receipt and employment due to recurrent unemployment spells. Second, we derive a welfare formula of UI extensions that incorporates recurrent nonemployment spells.

scholarly journals Does Welfare Inhibit Success? The Long-Term Effects of Removing Low-Income Youth from the Disability Rolls

2016 ◽  
Vol 106 (11) ◽  
pp. 3300-3330 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manasi Deshpande
Keyword(s):  
Policy Change ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Supplemental Security Income ◽  
Cash Income ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Youth With Disabilities

I estimate the effects of removing low-income youth with disabilities from Supplemental Security Income (SSI) on their earnings and income in adulthood. Using a regression discontinuity design based on a 1996 policy change in age 18 medical reviews, I find that youth who are removed from SSI at age 18 recover one-third of the lost SSI cash income in earnings. SSI youth who are removed and stay off SSI earn on average $4,400 annually, and they lose $76,000 in present discounted observed income over the 16 years following removal relative to those who do not receive a review. (JEL I30, I38, J14)

scholarly journals Evaluating the Minimum-Wage Exemption of the Long-Term Unemployed in Germany

ILR Review ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 73 (5) ◽  
pp. 1095-1118
Author(s):  
Matthias Umkehrer ◽  
Philipp vom Berge
Keyword(s):  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Unemployment Duration ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Micro Data ◽  
Job Seekers ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Employment Stability

The authors evaluate the exemption of long-term unemployed job seekers from Germany’s national minimum wage. Using linked survey and administrative micro data, they rely on a regression discontinuity design to identify the effects of the policy by comparing hiring rates, employment stability, and entry wages around the administrative threshold between short-term and long-term unemployment. They find that the exemption is very rarely used and that the minimum wage binds irrespective of past unemployment duration. While the minimum wage led to a relative rise in entry wages for the long-term unemployed compared to the short-term unemployed, the authors do not detect a relative deterioration in their employment prospects.

The Distribution of Unemployment Spells: Canada, 1978–82

ILR Review ◽  
1987 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 254-267
Author(s):  
Charles M. Beach ◽  
S. F. Kaliski
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Work Experience ◽  
The United States ◽  
Micro Data ◽  
Lorenz Curves ◽  
Unemployment Spell ◽  
Data Source ◽  
Unemployment Spells ◽  
Severe Recession

This paper empirically examines entire distributions of unemployment spells according to a novel duration-share approach based on decile shares and Lorenz curves of unemployment. The approach is applied to a Canadian micro-data source akin to the Work Experience Surveys for the United States. The major empirical findings are that long-term unemployment accounts for a very substantial proportion of total weeks of unemployment, despite the short duration of the average spell of unemployment. The structure of unemployment spell distribution differs significantly by gender, age, education, and region; and significant cyclical effects on the distribution of unemployment spells are associated with the severe recession in 1982.

scholarly journals Long-Term Contextual Effects in Education: Schools and Neighborhoods

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 336-377
Author(s):  
Jean-William Laliberté
Keyword(s):  
Educational Attainment ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Spatial Regression ◽  
Contextual Effects ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Growing Up ◽  
Research Designs ◽  
Long Term Impact

This paper estimates the long-term impact of growing up in better neighborhoods and attending better schools on educational attainment. First, I use a spatial regression-discontinuity design to estimate school effects. Second, I study students who move across neighborhoods in Montreal during childhood to estimate the causal effect of growing up in a better area (total exposure effects). I find large effects for both dimensions. Combining both research designs in a decomposition framework, and under key assumptions, I estimate that 50–70 percent of the benefits of moving to a better area on educational attainment are due to access to better schools. (JEL H75, I21, R23)

Long-Term Employment Effects from Job Losses during the COVID-19 Crisis? A Comparison to the Great Recession and Its Slow Recovery

2021 ◽  
Vol 111 ◽  
pp. 481-485
Author(s):  
Till von Wachter
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Job Loss ◽  
Loss Rate ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Slow Recovery ◽  
Employment Effects ◽  
The Great Recession

This paper compares predictions for the long-term reductions in the employment-to-population (EPOP) ratio based on estimates of the overall job-loss rate and the long-term effects of job loss with the actual evolution of the EPOP ratio. It took about ten years after the end of the Great Recession for the EPOP ratio to recover from substantial reductions partly implied by job-loss effects. Based on job loss during the COVID-19 crisis through July, the prediction is that 15-37 percent of the reduction of the EPOP ratio in December 2020 is permanent.

Infrastructure investment and employment: Evidence for Portugal

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 1377
Author(s):  
Alfredo M. Pereira ◽  
Rui M. Pereira ◽  
Pedro G. Rodrigues
Keyword(s):  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Employment Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Infrastructure Investments

We estimated how investment in 12 infrastructure types affects employment in Portugal. Using a vector-autoregressive specification at the industry level, we found a double dividend associated with ports and airports: investing in either delivers the greatest bang per euro, both on impact and in the long run. One million euros invested in ports and airports creates 717.1 and 290.5 jobs in the long run, respectively, and 535 and 253.3 jobs in the short run, respectively. Regarding long-term employment effects, these are followed by municipal roads, telecommunications, national roads, health structures, education facilities, refineries, railroads, and highways. Water infrastructures and electricity and gas infrastructures have negligible effects. With the long-term effects decomposed, sizable supply-side employment effects for health and education facilities exist, while demand-side effects dominate for airports, ports, municipal roads, and telecommunications. Employment following the investment in national roads is balanced across demand and supply channels. We found no significant employment-related location effects of infrastructure investments. Also, investing in either health facilities or in education buildings entails non-negligible job losses in the short run. These results suggest that the magnitude and the timing of job creation crucially depend on the type of infrastructure investment. Policymakers in Portugal need to be aware of this in choosing between countercyclical or structural targets.

scholarly journals Can the Easter break induce a long-term break of exercise routines? An analysis of Danish gym data using a regression discontinuity design

BMJ Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. e024043
Author(s):  
Eskild Klausen Fredslund ◽  
Anja Leppin
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Exercise Frequency ◽  
Physically Active ◽  
Exercise Habit ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Motivational Support

ObjectivesMany sedentary individuals are aware of the health benefits of regular physical activity and start becoming more physically active. Yet, despite good intentions, many struggle to keep up initial exercise levels and experience a decline in exercise frequency. A possible explanation is that it is hard to establish habits or routines, and that such routines—once established—might be easy to break. In this paper, we analyse whether a break in habitual/routine behaviour—induced by the Easter holidays—results in individuals exercising less after the break.MethodsThe study included a sample of 1210 members of a Danish chain of fitness centres who were gym members at least since the preceding New Year’s Day. Participants granted access to gym attendance data, which were automatically recorded when entering the gym. We use a regression discontinuity design encompassing a time period of 10 weeks prior to and 10 weeks after Easter.ResultsWe found a significant and relevant discretionary drop in exercise frequency right after the Easter holidays of 0.24 times per week (p=0.001) corresponding to a fall of 12.25% compared with the week prior to the Easter holidays. The effect was especially profound for individuals below retirement age and for individuals who had attended the gym with a higher frequency (twice a week or more) in the 6 weeks prior to the Easter break.DiscussionThis information is potentially relevant for helping individuals maintain an exercise habit. Motivational support should focus on the time period after normative breaks, such as Easter or other holidays.

Short- and Long-term Ex-Post Effects of Unemployment Insurance Sanctions

2012 ◽  
Vol 232 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara Hofmann
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Insurance ◽  
Job Search ◽  
Work Force ◽  
West Germany ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Regular Employment ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Benefit Sanctions

SummaryUnemployment insurance (UI) benefit sanctions in form of benefit reductions are intended to set an incentive to comply with job search requirements and to decrease moral hazard behaviour. However, sanctions might also affect the subsequent employment history. Empirical research on long-term effects is scarce. Using administrative data, we investigate short- and long-term effects of sanctions on the reemployment probability of individuals in West Germany who entered UI benefit receipt between April 2000 and March 2001. As outcomes we consider regular employment, other employment, and having dropped out of the registered labour market. By applying a matching approach that takes the timing of treatment into account, we identify the ex post effect of UI sanctions. According to our results, sanctions are effective in increasing the probability of regular employment for young sanctioned UI benefit recipients. Older women on average respond to a sanction by taking up jobs of lower quality. For both women and men, we find an increased number of months out of the official work force after a sanction.

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