scholarly journals Evaluating the Minimum-Wage Exemption of the Long-Term Unemployed in Germany

ILR Review ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 73 (5) ◽  
pp. 1095-1118
Author(s):  
Matthias Umkehrer ◽  
Philipp vom Berge
Keyword(s):  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Unemployment Duration ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Micro Data ◽  
Job Seekers ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Employment Stability

The authors evaluate the exemption of long-term unemployed job seekers from Germany’s national minimum wage. Using linked survey and administrative micro data, they rely on a regression discontinuity design to identify the effects of the policy by comparing hiring rates, employment stability, and entry wages around the administrative threshold between short-term and long-term unemployment. They find that the exemption is very rarely used and that the minimum wage binds irrespective of past unemployment duration. While the minimum wage led to a relative rise in entry wages for the long-term unemployed compared to the short-term unemployed, the authors do not detect a relative deterioration in their employment prospects.

scholarly journals Analisis Peningkatan Upah Minimum Terhadap Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja di Provinsi Jawa Tengah

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 134-143
Author(s):  
Annisa Yulianti ◽  
Hadi Sasana
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Central Java ◽  
Meaningful Relationship ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Relationship Of

 This study aims to analyze the short-term and long-term relationship of increasing the minimum wage in Central Java on employment. The research method used is ECM. The variables of this study include labor, minimum wages, PMDN, and economic growth. The data used are time-series data from 1990-2020. The results show that the minimum wage has a positive and significant relationship to the employment in the long term but not significantly in the short time. PMDN has a negative but significant correlation in the short and long term. At the same time, the variable economic growth has a positive but not meaningful relationship to employment absorption in the long and short term.

scholarly journals Long-Term Capital Goods Importation and Minimum Wage Relationship in Turkey: Bounds Testing Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 122-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
Serkan Tastan ◽  
Halil Ozekicioglu
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Capital Goods ◽  
Error Correction Mechanism ◽  
Bounds Testing Approach ◽  
Testing Approach

Abstract In order to examine the long-term relationship between capital goods importation and minimum wage, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to the cointegration is used in the study. According to bounds test results, a cointegration relation exists between the capital goods importation and the minimum wage. Therefore an ARDL(4,0) model is estimated in order to determine the long and short term relations between variables. According to the empirical analysis, there is a positive and significant relationship between the capital goods importation and the minimum wage in Turkey in the long term. A 1% increase in the minimum wage leads to a 0.8% increase in the capital goods importation in the long term. The result is similar for short term coefficients. The relationship observed in the long term is preserved in short term, though in a lower level. In terms of error correction model, it can be concluded that error correction mechanism works as the error correction term is negative and significant. Short term deviations might be resolved with the error correction mechanism in the long term. Accordingly, approximately 75% of any deviation from equilibrium which might arise in the previous six month period will be resolved in the current six month period. This means that returning to long term equilibrium progresses rapidly.

scholarly journals Long-Term Contextual Effects in Education: Schools and Neighborhoods

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 336-377
Author(s):  
Jean-William Laliberté
Keyword(s):  
Educational Attainment ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Spatial Regression ◽  
Contextual Effects ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Growing Up ◽  
Research Designs ◽  
Long Term Impact

This paper estimates the long-term impact of growing up in better neighborhoods and attending better schools on educational attainment. First, I use a spatial regression-discontinuity design to estimate school effects. Second, I study students who move across neighborhoods in Montreal during childhood to estimate the causal effect of growing up in a better area (total exposure effects). I find large effects for both dimensions. Combining both research designs in a decomposition framework, and under key assumptions, I estimate that 50–70 percent of the benefits of moving to a better area on educational attainment are due to access to better schools. (JEL H75, I21, R23)

scholarly journals Comparative politics and causal evaluation of structural reforms: the case of the UK national minimum wage introduction

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 301-314
Author(s):  
Thomas König ◽  
Guido Ropers ◽  
Anika Buchmann
Keyword(s):  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Comparative Politics ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Post Treatment ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Similar Treatment

AbstractIn comparative studies, causal evaluations attempt to improve our understanding of the effectiveness of structural reforms by counterfactually inspecting post-treatment effects. Yet, even if comparative scholars find similar treatment and comparison units, the interpretation of the post-treatment trajectory is difficult as short-term estimates can be subject to strategic timing of reform implementation, while long-term effects are likely affected by further interventions. To illustrate these difficulties we apply the generalized synthetic control method to evaluate the introduction of a British national minimum wage. We find a short-term decreasing effect on youth unemployment that turns into an increasing effect over time. This suggests the presence of an upward biased selection effect from strategic timing. We also inspect two post-treatment interventions and find that they differ in their general and country-specific implications for the long-term trajectory.

scholarly journals Can the Easter break induce a long-term break of exercise routines? An analysis of Danish gym data using a regression discontinuity design

BMJ Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. e024043
Author(s):  
Eskild Klausen Fredslund ◽  
Anja Leppin
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Exercise Frequency ◽  
Physically Active ◽  
Exercise Habit ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Motivational Support

ObjectivesMany sedentary individuals are aware of the health benefits of regular physical activity and start becoming more physically active. Yet, despite good intentions, many struggle to keep up initial exercise levels and experience a decline in exercise frequency. A possible explanation is that it is hard to establish habits or routines, and that such routines—once established—might be easy to break. In this paper, we analyse whether a break in habitual/routine behaviour—induced by the Easter holidays—results in individuals exercising less after the break.MethodsThe study included a sample of 1210 members of a Danish chain of fitness centres who were gym members at least since the preceding New Year’s Day. Participants granted access to gym attendance data, which were automatically recorded when entering the gym. We use a regression discontinuity design encompassing a time period of 10 weeks prior to and 10 weeks after Easter.ResultsWe found a significant and relevant discretionary drop in exercise frequency right after the Easter holidays of 0.24 times per week (p=0.001) corresponding to a fall of 12.25% compared with the week prior to the Easter holidays. The effect was especially profound for individuals below retirement age and for individuals who had attended the gym with a higher frequency (twice a week or more) in the 6 weeks prior to the Easter break.DiscussionThis information is potentially relevant for helping individuals maintain an exercise habit. Motivational support should focus on the time period after normative breaks, such as Easter or other holidays.

ARE INITIAL WAGE LOSSES OF INTERSECTORAL MOVERS COMPENSATED FOR BY THEIR SUBSEQUENT WAGE GAINS?

2010 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 501-526 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donggyun Shin ◽  
Kwanho Shin ◽  
Seonyoung Park
Keyword(s):  
Panel Study ◽  
Wage Growth ◽  
Longitudinal Survey ◽  
Income Dynamics ◽  
Utility Model ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Job Seekers ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wage Loss

This paper presents an equilibrium explanation of the inter- and intrasectoral mobility of workers. Analyses of our samples from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth show that, other things being equal, the initial wage decline is greater for intersectoral movers than for intrasectoral movers. Intersectoral movers, however, enjoy higher wage growth in subsequent years on postunemployment jobs than intrasectoral movers do, and hence are compensated for their initial wage decline. Our estimates suggest that, other things being constant, the additional short-term wage loss associated with sector shifts is overturned in no more than four years by the greater wage growth of intersectoral movers in subsequent years. The findings in the current study clearly show that the true economic costs of intersector mobility tend to be overstated in existing studies and are significantly lowered in the long-term perspective. Calibration of a simple lifetime utility model demonstrates that inter- and intrasectoral movements of workers are quantitatively consistent with an equilibrium framework, at least for a major group of workers who move with longer term perspectives. Evidence also shows that job seekers consider not only the initial wage rate but also the subsequent wages received from the postunemployment job when deciding whether to recommence employment or switch sectors.

scholarly journals Men and women candidates are similarly persistent after losing elections

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (26) ◽  
pp. e2026726118
Author(s):  
Rachel Bernhard ◽  
Justin de Benedictis-Kessner
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Political Ambition ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Women Candidates ◽  
Point Of Entry ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
First Time

Are women more likely to quit politics after losing their first race than men? Women’s first-time candidacies skyrocketed in the wake of the 2016 presidential election. Yet we have little sense of the long-term impact of this surge in women candidates on women’s representation writ large: Inexperienced candidates are more likely to lose, and women might be especially discouraged by a loss. This might make the benefits of such a surge in candidacies fleeting. Using a regression discontinuity design and data that feature 212,805 candidates across 22,473 jurisdictions between 1950 and 2018, we find that women who narrowly lose these elections are no more likely to quit politics than men who narrowly lose. Drawing on scholarship on women’s lower political ambition, we interpret these findings to mean that women’s decision-making differs from men’s at the point of entry into politics—not at the point of reentry.

Sweeping the flies away: evidence from a fruit fly eradication program

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (5) ◽  
pp. 1920-1962
Author(s):  
Lina Salazar ◽  
Julian Aramburu ◽  
Marcos Agurto ◽  
Alessandro Maffioli ◽  
Jossie Fahsbender
Keyword(s):  
Pest Management ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Fruit Fly ◽  
Fruit Production ◽  
Management Program ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Pre Treatment ◽  
And Control

Abstract This article evaluates the short-term impacts of a fruit fly integrated pest management program in Peru. Exploiting arbitrary variation in the program’s intervention borders, we use a geographical regression discontinuity design to identify the program’s effects on agricultural outcomes. Pre-treatment balance tests show that producer and farm-level pre-treatment characteristics evolve smoothly at the intervention border. Results indicate that farmers within treated areas improved pest knowledge and are more likely to implement prevention and control practices. Also, they increased fruit production and sales. Our findings are confirmed by placebo tests and are robust to alternative regression discontinuity bandwidths and polynomials.

scholarly journals The Dynamic Electoral Returns of a Large Anti-Poverty Program

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Zimmermann
Keyword(s):  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Implementation Quality ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Poverty Program ◽  
Plausible Mechanism ◽  
The Government ◽  
Election Strategies

Short-term re-election strategies are widely used by governments around the world. This is problematic if governments can maximize their re-election chances by prioritizing short-term spending before an election over long-term reforms. This paper tests whether longer program exposure has a causal effect on election outcomes in the context of a large anti-poverty program in India. Using a regression-discontinuity framework, the results show that length of program exposure lowers electoral support for the government. The paper discusses a couple of potential explanations, finding that the most plausible mechanism is that voters hold the government accountable for the program's implementation quality.

scholarly journals What effect does gun-related violence have on the attractiveness of a residential area? The case of Stockholm, Sweden

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mats Wilhelmsson ◽  
Vania Ceccato ◽  
Manne Gerell
Keyword(s):  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Design Method ◽  
Causal Connection ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Housing Values ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Exact Location ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Short Term Effects

PurposeThis study aims to analyse the effect of gun-related violence on housing values, controlling for the area's crime levels and locational factors. Previous studies that aimed to find a causal connection between crime and housing values used instrument variables to solve the endogeneity problem. Here, the authors have instead been able to take advantage of the fact that shootings have occurred in random time and space. This has made it possible to estimate models to create windows around the shooting (event) and to estimate the causal effects of the shootings. Thus, the authors aim to contribute to the regression discontinuity design method in this context to estimate the short-term effects.Design/methodology/approachUsing the regression discontinuity design method, the authors can estimate the short-term effects of shootings.FindingsFindings from the analysis indicate that shootings directly affect those who are impacted by shootings and indirectly affect the environments where shootings occur. The indirect effect of shootings is momentary as it is capitalised directly in housing values in the immediate area. The effect also appears to be relatively long-term and persistent as housing values have not returned to the price level before the shooting 100–200 days after the shooting. The capitalisation effect is higher the closer one gets to the central parts of the city. On the other hand, the capitalisation effect is not higher or lower in areas with a higher crime rate per capita.Originality/valueThe article contributes to the previous literature in several ways. First and foremost, it provides an explicit analysis of shootings in built-up areas and their hypothesised effect on property prices through the impact on attractiveness and perceived safety. As far as the authors know, no study has analysed this issue on the international level or in Sweden. In this way, the authors aim to develop a study that can provide critical knowledge about one of the adverse effects of shootings. The authors also contribute to the literature by utilising unique data material, which allows the authors to merge information from the police about the exact location of shootings in the Stockholm area with data on sales of apartments in the same residential areas. In addition to the exact location of the shootings (coordinates), the authors also have access to data about whether the shootings led to injuries or deaths. Thus, the authors have separated the effect of shootings and fatal shootings, which has not been done before. Finally, the authors set out to highlight the results as a contribution to the debate on shootings.

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