scholarly journals Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises: The Role of Interest Rates

2006 ◽  
Vol 96 (5) ◽  
pp. 1769-1787 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Hellwig ◽  
Arijit Mukherji ◽  
Aleh Tsyvinski
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Currency Crises ◽  
Multiple Equilibria ◽  
Asset Market ◽  
Equilibrium Uniqueness ◽  
Private Signals ◽  
Special Cases

We develop a model of currency crises, in which traders are heterogeneously informed, and interest rates are endogenously determined in a noisy rational expectations equilibrium. In our model, multiple equilibria result from distinct roles an interest rate plays in determining domestic asset market allocations and the devaluation outcome. Except for special cases, this finding is not affected by the introduction of noisy private signals. We conclude that the global games results on equilibrium uniqueness do not apply to market-based models of currency crises.

scholarly journals Does the Interest Rate Form Business Cycle?

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-34
Author(s):  
Bijan Bidabad ◽  
Abul Hassan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Rate Form ◽  
The Interest Rate

Dynamic structural behavior of depositor, bank and borrower and the role of banks in forming business cycle are investigated. We test the hypothesis that does banks behavior make oscillations in the economy through the interest rate. By dichotomizing banking activities into two markets of deposit and loan, we show that these two markets have non-synchronized structures, and this is why the money sector fluctuation starts. As a result, the fluctuation is transmitted to the real economy through saving and investment functions. Empirical results assert that in the USA, the banking system creates fluctuations in the money sector and real economy as well through short-term interest rates

Natural Interest Rate: Sraffa Vs. Hayek Debates

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (3) ◽  
pp. 3-16
Author(s):  
Aleksandr Kovalev
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Thought ◽  
Business Cycle Theory ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
Main Method ◽  
Natural Rate Of Interest ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Impact

This article deal with the discussion between F. Hayek and P. Sraffa in the 1930s. This piece of the history of economic thought is not presented in the Russian-speaking literature. The main method is a content analysis. The directions of criticism Hayek’s business cycle theory by Sraffa and the response towards is analyzed in the paper. The author compared the opponents’ approaches to the essence of the equilibrium, to the savings-investments equality, to the possibility to lose capital as a result of malinvestments, to the role of expectations, and to the natural rate of interest. A version was offered for explaining the ineffectiveness of Hayek's answer to the question on the multiplicity of natural interest rates and the reasons why the barter economy has been perceived as theoretical basis of the Hayekian analysis. It is the inaccurate wording of the natural interest rate and the representation the theory within the framework of the equilibrium paradigm. The findings of the research may be applied to analyze the impact of interest rate regulation on the economic.

Derivatives Pricing in the Positive Interest Rates

2004 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 157-179
Author(s):  
Joon Hee Rhee
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Analytic Solutions ◽  
Infinitely Divisible ◽  
Pricing Kernel ◽  
Derivatives Pricing ◽  
Interest Rate Derivatives ◽  
Practical Applications ◽  
Kernel Approach

This paper examines the pricing of interest rates derivatives such as caps and swaptions in the pricing kernel framework. The underlying state variable is extended to the general infinitely divisible Levy process. For computational purposes, a simple pricing kernel as in Flesaker and Hughston (1996) and Jin and Glasserman (2001) is used. The main contribution or purpose of this paper is to find several proper positive martingales, which is key role of practical applications of the pricing kernel approach with interest rates guarantee to be positive. Particularly, this paper first finds and applies a quite general type of a positive martingale process to pricing interest rate derivatives such as swaptions and range notes in the incomplete market setting. Such interest rate derivatives are hard to find analytic solutions. Consequently, this paper shows that such a choice of the positive martingale in the kernel framework is a promising approach to price interest rate derivatives

scholarly journals PERBANDINGAN PENGARUH SUKU BUNGA DAN INFLASI TERHADAP KREDIT DAN PEMBIAYAAN (Studi Kasus pada Bank Umum Konvensional dan Bank Umum Syariah periode 2011-2015)

IQTISHODUNA ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 91-97
Author(s):  
Hasannudin Nursalim Putra ◽  
Irnin Miladyan Aryq ◽  
Lilik Jazilatul Mufidah
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Path Analysis ◽  
The State ◽  
Financial Policy ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Policy Interest

Inflationary pressures that often time there was a can shake economy the state, to face inflationarypressures one of the efforts of the country to control the inflation is by issuing policy interest rate by theIndonesia bank as central financial policy monetary and fiscal. The banks have the role of to control the rateinflation. The interest rate that set by the bank will affect the level distribution credit of bank conventional andfinancing of sharia bank. For that researchers want to see the influence of direct and indirect interest rates tocredit and financingand inflation as variable intervening. The kind of research is quantitative with the sampleof six general Sharia Bank and the generalconventional bank in Indonesia period 2011 until 2015 taken withpurposive sampling. Themethod is path analysis. Based onsignificant test, the first significant test has resultthat interest rates significant of inflation. Thesecond significant testhas results that the interest rate notsignificant on the distribution credit and financing. The third significant test has result that inflation is notsignificant to distribution credit and financing. So this is can concluded that inflation will not be variableintervening for the distribution credit and financing.

scholarly journals Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises: The Role of Interest Rates

2005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Hellwig ◽  
Arijit Mukherji ◽  
Aleh Tsyvinski
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Currency Crises

scholarly journals INTEREST RATE RULES AND MACROECONOMIC STABILITY UNDER HETEROGENEOUS EXPECTATIONS

2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (8) ◽  
pp. 1574-1604 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikhail Anufriev ◽  
Tiziana Assenza ◽  
Cars Hommes ◽  
Domenico Massaro
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Multiple Equilibria ◽  
Monetary Authority ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Inflation Dynamics ◽  
Interest Rate Rules ◽  
Heterogeneous Expectations ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Interest Rate

The recent macroeconomic literature stresses the importance of managing heterogeneous expectations in the formulation of monetary policy. We use a simple frictionless dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to investigate inflation dynamics under alternative interest rate rules when agents have heterogeneous expectations, and update their beliefs based on past performance, as in Brock and Hommes [Econometrica65(5), 1059–1095 (1997)]. The stabilizing effect of different monetary policies depends on the ecology of forecasting rules (i.e., the composition of the set of predictors), on agents' sensitivity to differences in forecasting performance, and on how aggressively the monetary authority sets the nominal interest rate in response to inflation. In particular, if the monetary authority responds only weakly to inflation, a cumulative process with rising inflation is likely. On the other hand, a Taylor interest rate rule that sets the interest rate more than point for point in response to inflation stabilizes inflation dynamics, but does not always lead the system to converge to the rational expectations equilibrium, as multiple equilibria may persist.

THE ROLE OF TWO INTEREST RATES IN THE INTERTEMPORAL CURRENT ACCOUNT MODEL

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (S2) ◽  
pp. 176-189 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michał Rubaszek
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Low Income Country ◽  
Interest Rate Spread ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Current Account

We analyze the role of the lending-deposit interest rate spread in the dynamics of the current account in developing countries. For that purpose, we extend the standard perfect-foresight intertemporal model of the current account for the existence of the interest rate spread and simulate the convergence path of developing economies. This model helps explain why in many cases it is optimal for a fast-growing, low-income country to run a balanced current account.

scholarly journals Competition in the Georgian banking sector and its impact on the credit policy of commercial banks

2021 ◽  
Vol 342 ◽  
pp. 08003
Author(s):  
George Abuselidze ◽  
Mariam Sharabidze
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Competitive Environment ◽  
Credit Policy ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Based on the role of banking sector in the development of the country’s economy, we consider it important to study the current situation in this sector. The existence of a competitive environment ensures the efficient functioning of the banking sector. The aim of the study is to estimate the competitive environment in the banking sector, to determine the relationship between competition and interest rates. The research is based on the use of different economic models and indexes. Competition in the banking sector is studied on the example of Georgian banking sector, for that we used HHI Net Loans and H-statistic indicators. The study analyses the impact of competition in the banking sector on the net interest income and interest rate in the same sector.

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