scholarly journals Does the Interest Rate Form Business Cycle?

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-34
Author(s):  
Bijan Bidabad ◽  
Abul Hassan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Rate Form ◽  
The Interest Rate

Dynamic structural behavior of depositor, bank and borrower and the role of banks in forming business cycle are investigated. We test the hypothesis that does banks behavior make oscillations in the economy through the interest rate. By dichotomizing banking activities into two markets of deposit and loan, we show that these two markets have non-synchronized structures, and this is why the money sector fluctuation starts. As a result, the fluctuation is transmitted to the real economy through saving and investment functions. Empirical results assert that in the USA, the banking system creates fluctuations in the money sector and real economy as well through short-term interest rates

scholarly journals A FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF RESWITCHING

2021 ◽  
pp. 220-244
Author(s):  
Rafael García Iborra
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inverse Relationship ◽  
Financial Analysis ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Business Cycle Theory ◽  
Natural Level ◽  
The Interest Rate

The classical Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT) is based on an inverse relationship between the so-called Average Period of Production (APP) or ‘roundaboutness’ and the interest rate. According to Böhm-Bawerk (1884 [1891]), the APP is the weighted average time that a unit of labor is locked up in the production process1; moreover, there is a positive relationship between savings (the ‘subsistence fund’) and the APP: the higher the latter the higher the former, which implies an inverse relationship between interest rates and the APP. Thus, a lower interest rate will lead to a higher APP ceteris paribus. Hayek (2008) based his Hayekian triangles on Böhm-Bawerk’s work: a lower (higher) interest rate leads to a more (less) rounda- bout structure of production, increasing (decreasing) the APP. Including Mises’s (1921) business cycle theory into the analysis, whenever the interest rate is pushed lower than its ‘natural level’, either by the central bank or the banking system, there is an unsus- tainable extension of the APP that will generate an economic boom; the crisis will irremediably follow, as the APP will pull back towards its natural level. From this brief characterization of the ABCT, it is easy to notice the key role of the inverse relationship between interest rates and roundaboutness; without it, there is no connection from changes in interest rates and roundaboutness, and the ABCT falls apart. The reswitching of techniques is precisely a counterexample to that relationship, as it claims there are situations in which lower interest rates do not lead to more roundabout productive struc- tures. The organization of this paper is as follows: the next section describes the reswitching of techniques as stated by Samuelson (1966) and the implication for the classical ABCT, based on a phys- ical measure of roundaboutness; section 3 analyzes the alternative of applying corporate finance to the ABCT following Cachanosky and Lewin (2014). Section 4 is a financial analysis of Samuelson’s example, argues why modified duration should replace Böhm- Bawerk’s APP as a measure of roundaboutness, and shows why it does not represent a paradox to the ABCT when the financial approach is used. Sections 5 and 6 address the question from two additional perspectives: a neoclassical with fully flexible prices but fixed techniques and the Austrian related dynamic efficiency.

Dynamic lag structure of deposits and loans interest rates and business cycles formation

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 114-132
Author(s):  
Bijan Bidabad ◽  
Abul Hassan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Structural Dynamic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real

Purpose This paper aims to study the structural dynamic behaviour of the depositors, banks and investors and the role of banks in the business cycles. The authors test the hypothesis: do banks’ behaviour make oscillations in the economy via interest rate? Design/methodology/approach The authors dichotomized banking activities into two markets: deposit and loan. The first market forms deposit interest rate, and the second market forms credit interest rate. The authors show that these two types of interest rates have non-synchronized structures, and that is why money sector fluctuation starts. As a result, the fluctuation is transferred to the real economy through saving and investment functions. Findings The empirical results show that in the USA, the banking system creates fluctuations in money and real economy, as well as through interest rates. Short-term interest rates had complex roots in their characteristic, while medium and long-term interest rates, though they were second-order difference equations, had real characteristic roots. However, short-term interest rates are the source of oscillation and form the business cycles. Research limitations/implications The authors tested the hypothesis for USA economy, while it needs to be tested for other economies as well. Practical implications The results show that though the source of fluctuations in the real economy comes from short-term interest rates, medium- and long-term interest rates dampen real economy fluctuations and also work as economic stabilisers. Originality/value Regarding the applied method, the topic is new.

scholarly journals Reforming LIBOR and Other Financial Market Benchmarks

2015 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 191-212 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darrell Duffie ◽  
Jeremy C. Stein
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Economic Role ◽  
News Reports ◽  
Legal Risks ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Orderly Transition

LIBOR is the London Interbank Offered Rate: a measure of the interest rate at which large banks can borrow from one another on an unsecured basis. LIBOR is often used as a benchmark rate— meaning that the interest rates that consumers and businesses pay on trillions of dollars in loans adjust up and down contractually based on movements in LIBOR. Investors also rely on the difference between LIBOR and various risk-free interest rates as a gauge of stress in the banking system. Benchmarks such as LIBOR therefore play a central role in modern financial markets. Thus, news reports in 2008 revealing widespread manipulation of LIBOR threatened the integrity of this benchmark and lowered trust in financial markets. We begin with a discussion of the economic role of benchmarks in reducing market frictions. We explain how manipulation occurs in practice, and illustrate how benchmark definitions and fixing methods can mitigate manipulation. We then turn to an overall policy approach for reducing the susceptibility of LIBOR to manipulation before focusing on the practical problem of how to make an orderly transition to alternative reference rates without raising undue legal risks.

scholarly journals Interest rates and prices causality in the Czech Republic – Granger approach

2009 ◽  
Vol 55 (No. 7) ◽  
pp. 347-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Poměnková ◽  
S. Kapounek
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
The Interest Rate

Monetary policy analysis concerns both the assumptions of the transmission mechanism and the direction of causality between the nominal (i.e. the money) and real economy. The traditional channel of monetary policy implementation works via the interest rate changes and their impact on the investment activity and the aggregate demand. Altering the relationship between the aggregate demand and supply then impacts the general price level and hence inflation. Alternatively, the Post-Keynesians postulate money as a residual. In their approach, banks credit in response to the movements in investment activities and demand for money. In this paper, the authors use the VAR (i.e. the vector autoregressive) approach applied to the “Taylor Rule” concept to identify the mechanism and impact of the monetary policy in the small open post-transformation economy of the Czech Republic. The causality (in the Granger sense) between the interest rate and prices in the Czech Republic is then identified. The two alternative modelling approaches are tested. First, there is the standard VAR analysis with the lagged values of interest rate, inflation and economic growth as explanatory variables. This model shows one way causality (in the Granger sense) between the inflation rate and interest rate (i.e. the inflation rate is (Granger) caused by the lagged interest rate). Secondly, the lead (instead of lagged) values of the interest rate, inflation rate and real exchange rate are used. This estimate shows one way causality between the inflation rate and interest rate in the sense that interest rate is caused by the lead (i.e. the expected future) inflation rate. The assumptions based on money as a residual of the economic process were rejected in both models.

scholarly journals PERBANDINGAN PENGARUH SUKU BUNGA DAN INFLASI TERHADAP KREDIT DAN PEMBIAYAAN (Studi Kasus pada Bank Umum Konvensional dan Bank Umum Syariah periode 2011-2015)

IQTISHODUNA ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 91-97
Author(s):  
Hasannudin Nursalim Putra ◽  
Irnin Miladyan Aryq ◽  
Lilik Jazilatul Mufidah
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Path Analysis ◽  
The State ◽  
Financial Policy ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Policy Interest

Inflationary pressures that often time there was a can shake economy the state, to face inflationarypressures one of the efforts of the country to control the inflation is by issuing policy interest rate by theIndonesia bank as central financial policy monetary and fiscal. The banks have the role of to control the rateinflation. The interest rate that set by the bank will affect the level distribution credit of bank conventional andfinancing of sharia bank. For that researchers want to see the influence of direct and indirect interest rates tocredit and financingand inflation as variable intervening. The kind of research is quantitative with the sampleof six general Sharia Bank and the generalconventional bank in Indonesia period 2011 until 2015 taken withpurposive sampling. Themethod is path analysis. Based onsignificant test, the first significant test has resultthat interest rates significant of inflation. Thesecond significant testhas results that the interest rate notsignificant on the distribution credit and financing. The third significant test has result that inflation is notsignificant to distribution credit and financing. So this is can concluded that inflation will not be variableintervening for the distribution credit and financing.

THE ROLE OF TWO INTEREST RATES IN THE INTERTEMPORAL CURRENT ACCOUNT MODEL

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (S2) ◽  
pp. 176-189 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michał Rubaszek
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Low Income Country ◽  
Interest Rate Spread ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Current Account

We analyze the role of the lending-deposit interest rate spread in the dynamics of the current account in developing countries. For that purpose, we extend the standard perfect-foresight intertemporal model of the current account for the existence of the interest rate spread and simulate the convergence path of developing economies. This model helps explain why in many cases it is optimal for a fast-growing, low-income country to run a balanced current account.

scholarly journals Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar Rupiah Periode 1999Q1-2019Q2

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 197-209
Author(s):  
Erric Wijaya
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

The exchange rate plays an important role in influencing the level of Indonesia's international trade towards trading partner countries. This study discusses the factors that influence the exchange rate of the rupiah against dollar both in the short and long term. The variables that are suspected to influence changes in exchange rates are the inflation rate, the interest rate (SBI), world oil prices, the value of exports, and the value of imports. This research was conducted during 1999 quarter 1 to 2019 quarter 2. The results showed that there was a long-term and short-term relationship between inflation rates, interest rates, world oil prices, exports and imports to the exchange rate. In the short term, the interest rate and world oil prices have a significant effect on the exchange rate. In the long run, the inflation rate, world oil prices and imports have a significant effect on the exchange rate.

scholarly journals Stochastic model of microcredit interest rate in Morocco

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 268-273 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ghita Bennouna ◽  
Mohamed Tkiouat
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Microfinance Institutions ◽  
Social Mission ◽  
The Interest Rate

Access to microcredit can have a beneficial effect on the well-being of low-income households excluded from the traditional banking system. It allows this population to receive affordable financial services to help them to meet their needs and to improve their living conditions. However to provide access to credit, microfinance institutions should ensure not only their social mission but also commercial and financial mission to enable the institution to perpetuate and become self-sufficient. To this end, MFIs (microfinance institutions) must apply an interest rate that covers their costs and risk, while generating profits, Also microentrepreneurs need, to this end, to ensure the profitability of their activities. This paper presents the microfinance sector in Morocco. It focuses then on the interest rate applied by the Moroccan microfinance institutions; it provides also a comparative study between Morocco and other comparable countries in terms of interest rates charged to borrowers. Finally, this article presents a stochastic model of the interest rate in microcredit built in random loan repayment periods and on a real example of the program of loans of microfinance institution in Morocco.

scholarly journals Assessing the Role of Money versus Interest Rate in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-114
Author(s):  
Zafar Hayat ◽  
Muhammad Nadim Hanif
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Relative Effectiveness ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Price Puzzle ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

We have empirically examined the role of monetary aggregate(s) vis-à-vis short-term interest rate as monetary policy instruments, and the impact of State Bank of Pakistan’s transformation into the latter on their relative effectiveness in terms of inflation in Pakistan. Using indicators of ‘persistent changes’ in the underlying behaviours of variables of interest, we found that broad money consistently explains inflation in (i) monetary (ii) transitory and (iii) interest rate regimes. Though its role has receded while moving from the transition to the interest rate regime, the interest rate instrument seems to be positively related to inflation, a phenomenon commonly known as price puzzle. In light of these findings, we recommend that the role of money should not be completely de-emphasised. JEL Classification: E31, E52. Keywords: Monetary Policy Instruments, Price Puzzle, ARDL, Pakistan

Price interactions in the Russian credit market: Who is fighting whom and when do banks facilitate collusion?

2017 ◽  
pp. 79-99 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Mamonov
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Price Competition ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Credit Market ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Price Wars ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Interest Rate

This paper analyzes how banks react on the interest rate policy of their rivals when the industry-wide price competition is strengthening over different phases of business cycle in both retail and corporate segments of credit market in Russia. Our estimations, based on the models proposed in the literature on New Industrial Empirical Organization (NIEO), show that price wars are taking place from time to time in the retail as well as in the corporate segments of Russian credit market; more often - in periods of macroeconomic crisis, and are started by the banks from the top-30 group (in terms of assets, excluding Sberbank), the most warlike group within the Russian banking system. During the non-crisis periods banks are turning to facilitate collusions. The retail segment of credit market appears to be significantly more competitive as compared to the corporate one.

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