scholarly journals How the World Achieved Consensus on Monetary Policy

2007 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 47-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marvin Goodfriend
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Complete Agreement ◽  
Success Story ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Great Achievement ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
The World ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
State Of Affairs

The worldwide progress in monetary policy is a great achievement and, especially considering the situation 30 years ago, a remarkable success story. I describe how the world achieved a working consensus on the core principles of monetary policy by the late 1990s. I survey the muddled state of affairs in the 1970s, and then ask: What happened in Federal Reserve policy to produce an understanding of the practical principles of monetary policy? How did formal institutional support for targeting low inflation abroad follow from an international acceptance of these ideas? And how did a consensus theoretical model develop in academia? I explain how the modern theoretical consensus—known alternatively as the New Neoclassical Synthesis or the New Keynesian model of monetary policy—reinforces key advances: the priority for price stability; the targeting of core rather than headline inflation; the importance of credibility for low inflation; and preemptive interest rate policy supported by transparent objectives and procedures. Of course, a working consensus does not constitute complete agreement. Accordingly, the conclusion identifies important monetary policy issues that remain to be explored.

scholarly journals The Science of Monetary Policy: An Imperfect Knowledge Perspective

2018 ◽  
Vol 56 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Eusepi ◽  
Bruce Preston
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Policy Design ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Imperfect Knowledge ◽  
Knowledge Perspective ◽  
Rate Policy

This paper reevaluates the basic prescriptions of monetary policy design in the new Keynesian paradigm through the lens of imperfect knowledge. We show that while the basic logic of monetary policy design under rational expectations continues to obtain, perfect knowledge and learning can limit the set of policies available to central banks, rendering expectations management in general more difficult. Nonetheless, the desirability of some form of price-level targeting, inducing inertia in interest-rate policy, paramount under rational expectations, is robust to the assumption of imperfect knowledge. (JEL D84, E13, E31, E52, E58)

Trend inflation and monetary policy rules: determinacy analysis in New Keynesian model with capital accumulation

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Gerko ◽  
Kirill Sossounov
Keyword(s):  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Price Setting ◽  
New Keynesian Model ◽  
Time Analysis ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Trend Inflation ◽  
Rate Policy

AbstractThe paper analyzes the effect of positive trend inflation in the framework of a standard New Keynesian model with Calvo price setting and capital accumulation. We are building on the work of Carlstrom and Fuerst (Carlstrom, Charles T., and Timothy S. Fuerst. 2005. “Investment and Interest Rate Policy: A Discrete-Time Analysis.”

scholarly journals A Risk-Centric Model of Demand Recessions and Speculation*

2020 ◽  
Vol 135 (3) ◽  
pp. 1493-1566
Author(s):  
Ricardo J Caballero ◽  
Alp Simsek
Keyword(s):  
Asset Prices ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Financial Speculation ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
High Valuation

Abstract We provide a continuous-time “risk-centric” representation of the New Keynesian model, which we use to analyze the interactions between asset prices, financial speculation, and macroeconomic outcomes when output is determined by aggregate demand. In principle, interest rate policy is highly effective in dealing with shocks to asset valuations. However, in practice monetary policy faces a wide range of constraints. If these constraints are severe, a decline in risky asset valuations generates a demand recession. This reduces earnings and generates a negative feedback loop between asset prices and aggregate demand. In the recession phase, average beliefs matter because they not only affect asset valuations but also determine the strength of the amplification mechanism. In the ex ante boom phase, belief disagreements (or heterogeneous asset valuations) matter because they induce investors to speculate. This speculation exacerbates the crash by reducing high-valuation investors’ wealth when the economy transitions to recession, which depresses (wealth-weighted) average beliefs. Macroprudential policy that restricts speculation in the boom can Pareto improve welfare by increasing asset prices and aggregate demand in the recession.

Strategy and Tactics of Monetary Policy during the World Economic Crisis

2010 ◽  
pp. 4-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Nekipelov ◽  
M. Golovnin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Industrial Countries ◽  
Policy Goals ◽  
The World ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
World Economic ◽  
World Economic Crisis ◽  
Qualitative Changes

The paper analyzes the qualitative changes in monetary policy goals and instruments during the world economic crisis of 2007-2009 in industrial countries and Russia; it represents the authors view on Russian monetary policy goals and results on different stages of crisis development. On the basis of the analysis the authors conclude on the necessity of active exchange rate policy in Russia, while developing interest rate instruments, and implementation of some exchange restrictions to prevent crisis contagion in the future.

scholarly journals On the Limits of Macroprudential Policy

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcin Kolasa
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Output Volatility ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Collateral Constraints ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Additional Stabilization ◽  
The Interest Rate

AbstractThis paper studies how macroprudential policy tools applied to the housing market can complement the interest rate-based monetary policy in achieving one additional stabilization objective, defined as keeping either economic activity or credit at some exogenous (and possibly time-varying) levels. We show analytically in a canonical New Keynesian model with housing and collateral constraints that using the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, tax on credit or tax on property as additional policy instruments does not resolve the inflation-output volatility tradeoff. Perfect targeting of inflation and credit with monetary and macroprudential policy is possible only if the role of housing debt in the economy is sufficiently small. The identified limits to the considered policies are related to their predominantly intertemporal impact on decisions made by financially constrained agents, making them poor complements to monetary policy, which also operates at an intertemporal margin. These limits can be overcome if macroprudential policy is instead designed such that it sufficiently redistributes income between savers and borrowers.

scholarly journals Information Use and the Condorcet Jury Theorem

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 1098
Author(s):  
Keiichi Morimoto
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Imperfect Information ◽  
Information Use ◽  
Information Aggregation ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Strategic Complementarity ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Jury Theorem

Using a simple model of a coordination game, this paper explores how the information use of individuals affects an optimal committee size. Although enlarging the committee promotes information aggregation, it also stimulates the members’ coordination motive and distorts their voting behavior through higher-order beliefs. On the determination of a finite optimal committee size, the direction and degree of strategic interactions matter. When the strategic complementarity among members is strong, a finite optimal committee size exists. In contrast, it does not exist under strategic substitution. This mechanism is applied to the design of monetary policy committees in a New Keynesian model in which a committee conducts monetary policy under imperfect information.

scholarly journals Negative Interest Rate Risk. Atavism or Normalization of Central Banks’ Monetary Policy

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (342) ◽  
pp. 89-116
Author(s):  
Irena Pyka ◽  
Aleksandra Nocoń
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Negative Interest Rate Policy

In the face of the global financial crisis, central banks have used unconventional monetary policy instruments. Firstly, they implemented the interest rate policy, lowering base interest rates to a very low (almost zero) level. However, in the following years they did not undertake normalizing activities. The macroeconomic environment required further initiatives. For the first time in history, central banks have adopted Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP). The main aim of the study is to explore the risk accompanying the negative interest rate policy, aiming at identifying channels and consequences of its impact on the economy. The study verifies the research hypothesis stating that the risk of negative interest rates, so far unrecognized in Theory of Interest Rate, is a consequence of low effectiveness of monetary policy normalization and may adopt systemic nature, by influencing – through different channels – the financial stability and growth dynamics of the modern world economy.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document