scholarly journals The effects of government spending over the business cycle

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ανδρομάχη Παρθενίου
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Smooth Transition ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Local Projections ◽  
Transition Vector

Η παρούσα διατριβή εξετάζει τις επιδράσεις των επιμέρους συνιστωσών των κυβερνητικών δαπανών κατά τη διάρκεια του οικονομικού κύκλου (δηλαδή, άνθηση και ύφεση). Χρησιμοποιούνται δύο διαφορετικές κατηγοριοποιήσεις κυβερνητικών δαπανών, όπως αυτές προτείνονται από το Διεθνές Νομισματικό Ταμείο (ΔΝΤ): η οικονομική και η λειτουργική κατηγοριοποίηση. Η οικονομική κατηγοριοποίηση διαχωρίζει τις δημόσιες δαπάνες με βάση τον τύπο ή τον οικονομικό χαρακτήρα της δαπάνης, ενώ η λειτουργική κατηγοριοποίηση οργανώνει τις δαπάνες σύμφωνα με το σκοπό για τον οποίο δαπανώνται. Στα κεφάλαια 3 και 4 επιστρατεύεται η οικονομική κατηγοριοποίηση, αλλά με τη χρήση εναλλακτικών μεθόδων εκτίμησης. Στο κεφάλαιο 3 χρησιμοποιείται ένα υπόδειγμα δομικής διανυσματικής αυτοπαλινδρόμησης ομαλής μετάβασης (Smooth Transition Vector Autoregressive (STVAR)) και δεδομένα από τις Ηνωμένες Πολιτείες, ενώ στο κεφάλαιο 4, οι δημοσιονομικοί πολλαπλασιαστές εκτιμώνται με τη χρήση των τοπικών προβολών (Local Projections) και δεδομένα πάνελ από χώρες μέλη του ΟΟΣΑ, αλλά και από χώρες μη-μέλη του ΟΟΣΑ. Τέλος, στο κεφάλαιο 5 χρησιμοποιούνται τοπικές προβολές (Local Projections) και δεδομένα πάνελ χωρών μελών του ΟΟΣΑ για να εκτιμηθούν δημοσιονομικοί πολλαπλασιαστές με βάση τη λειτουργική κατηγοριοποίηση. Τα αποτελέσματα επιβεβαιώνουν τους ισχυρισμούς για την ύπαρξη ετερογένειας μεταξύ των συνιστωσών των δημοσίων δαπανών, αλλά και μεταξύ των φάσεων του οικονομικού κύκλου.

The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Activity over the Business Cycle: An Empirical Investigation in the Case of Algeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abderrahim Chibi ◽  
Sidi Mohamed Chekouri ◽  
Mohamed Benbouziane
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In this paper, we aim to analyze whether the effect of fiscal policy on economic growth in Algeria differs throughout the business cycle. To tackle this question, we use a Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MSVAR) framework. We find evidence of asymmetric effects of fiscal policy through regimes, defined by the state of the business cycle (recession and boom). The results show small positive government spending and revenue multipliers in the short term in both regimes. Most importantly, fiscal policy shocks have a stronger impact in times of economic recession than in times of expansion, which confirm the hypothesis of asymmetric effects. However, the impact of government spending is stronger than the impact of public revenue during recession periods. In addition, fiscal policy decision-makers interact with Anti-Keynesian view (pro-cyclical). Our results imply that there is something to gain by using the "right instrument" at the "right time".

Government spending shocks and economic growth: additional evidence from cyclical behavior of fiscal policy

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olumide Olusegun Olaoye ◽  
Ukafor Ukafor Okorie ◽  
Oluwatosin Odunayo Eluwole ◽  
Mahmood Butt Fawwad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
The State ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Spending Shocks ◽  
The Business Cycle

PurposeThis study examines the asymmetric effect of government spending on economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1980–2017. Specifically, this study investigates whether the response of economic growth to government spending shocks differs according to the nature of shocks on them. In addition, the authors examine whether the stabilizing effects of fiscal policies are dependent on the state of the business cycle.Design/methodology/approachThe study adopts the linear fiscal reaction function in addition to the nonlinear regression model of Hatemi-J (2011, 2012), Granger and Yoon (2002), which allows us to separate negative shocks from positive shocks to government spending. Similarly, the authors adopt the generalized method of moments (GMM) techniques of Hansen (1982) to account for simultaneity and endogeneity problems inherent in dynamic model.FindingsThe authors’ findings reveal that there is evidence of asymmetry in the government spending–economic growth nexus in Nigeria over the period of study. Specifically, the authors find that the response of economic growth to government spending shocks differs according to the nature of shocks on them. More specifically, the study established that the stabilizing effects of fiscal policies are dependent on the state of the business cycle.Originality/valueUnlike the traditional method of modeling asymmetry, which adopts the simple inclusion of a squared government spending term or by the inclusion of a cubic government spending term, the model adopted in this study allows us to model shocks and show how the responses of economic growth to government expenditure differ according to the nature of shocks on them.

scholarly journals TRI-CYCLES ANALYSIS ON BANK PERFORMANCE: PANEL VAR APPROACH

2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 403-442 ◽  
Author(s):  
Denny Irawan ◽  
Febrio Kacaribu
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Bank Performance ◽  
Panel Var ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Credit Cycle ◽  
The Business Cycle

The previous financial crisis has revealed the importance of risk in the financial and business cycle within the economy. This paper examines relationship among three cycles in the economy, namely (i) business cycle macro risk, (ii) credit cycle and (iii) risk cycle, and their impacts toward individual bank performance. We examine the responses of individual bank credit cycle and risk cycle toward a shock in business cycle macro risk and its consequence to the bank performance. We use Indonesian data for period of 2005q1 to 2014q4. We use unbalanced panel data of individual banks’ balance sheet with Panel Vector Autoregressive approach based on GMM style estimation by implementing PVAR package developed by Abrigo and Love (2015). The result shows dynamic relationship between business cycle macro risk and financial risk cycles. The study also observes prominent role of risk cycles in driving bank performance. We also show the existence of financial accelerator phenomenon in Indonesian banking system, in which financial cycles precede the business cycle macro risk.

Fiscal Multipliers and Their Relevance in a Currency Union – A Survey

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 259-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Illing ◽  
Sebastian Watzka
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Currency Union ◽  
Euro Crisis ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers ◽  
Role Of The State ◽  
The Business Cycle

Abstract The article reviews the debate on government spending multiplier and provides a detailed discussion of the underlying economic mechanisms, focusing on the role of the state of the business cycle and the monetary policy reaction. Special emphasis is on the effects of fiscal policy within a currency union and its implications for the euro crisis.

When is discretionary fiscal policy effective?

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven M. Fazzari ◽  
James Morley ◽  
Irina Panovska
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
State Dependence ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Discretionary Fiscal Policy ◽  
State Dependent ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Nonlinear Vector ◽  
Tax Changes ◽  
Deep Recession

AbstractWe investigate the effects of discretionary changes in government spending and taxes using a medium-scale nonlinear vector autoregressive model with policy shocks identified via sign restrictions. Tax cuts and spending increases have larger stimulative effects when there is excess slack in the economy, while they are much less effective, especially in the case of government spending increases, when the economy is close to potential. We find that contractionary shocks have larger effects than expansionary shocks across the business cycle, but this is much more pronounced during deep recessions and sluggish recoveries than in robust expansions. Notably, tax increases are highly contractionary and largely self-defeating in reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio when the economy is in a deep recession. The effectiveness of discretionary government spending, including its state dependence, appears to be almost entirely due to the response of consumption. The responses of both consumption and investment to discretionary tax changes are state dependent, but investment plays the larger quantitative role.

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