Does the Government Spending Multiplier Depend on the Business Cycle?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Collin Philipps
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Government

Government spending shocks and economic growth: additional evidence from cyclical behavior of fiscal policy

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olumide Olusegun Olaoye ◽  
Ukafor Ukafor Okorie ◽  
Oluwatosin Odunayo Eluwole ◽  
Mahmood Butt Fawwad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
The State ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Spending Shocks ◽  
The Business Cycle

PurposeThis study examines the asymmetric effect of government spending on economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1980–2017. Specifically, this study investigates whether the response of economic growth to government spending shocks differs according to the nature of shocks on them. In addition, the authors examine whether the stabilizing effects of fiscal policies are dependent on the state of the business cycle.Design/methodology/approachThe study adopts the linear fiscal reaction function in addition to the nonlinear regression model of Hatemi-J (2011, 2012), Granger and Yoon (2002), which allows us to separate negative shocks from positive shocks to government spending. Similarly, the authors adopt the generalized method of moments (GMM) techniques of Hansen (1982) to account for simultaneity and endogeneity problems inherent in dynamic model.FindingsThe authors’ findings reveal that there is evidence of asymmetry in the government spending–economic growth nexus in Nigeria over the period of study. Specifically, the authors find that the response of economic growth to government spending shocks differs according to the nature of shocks on them. More specifically, the study established that the stabilizing effects of fiscal policies are dependent on the state of the business cycle.Originality/valueUnlike the traditional method of modeling asymmetry, which adopts the simple inclusion of a squared government spending term or by the inclusion of a cubic government spending term, the model adopted in this study allows us to model shocks and show how the responses of economic growth to government expenditure differ according to the nature of shocks on them.

The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Activity over the Business Cycle: An Empirical Investigation in the Case of Algeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abderrahim Chibi ◽  
Sidi Mohamed Chekouri ◽  
Mohamed Benbouziane
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In this paper, we aim to analyze whether the effect of fiscal policy on economic growth in Algeria differs throughout the business cycle. To tackle this question, we use a Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MSVAR) framework. We find evidence of asymmetric effects of fiscal policy through regimes, defined by the state of the business cycle (recession and boom). The results show small positive government spending and revenue multipliers in the short term in both regimes. Most importantly, fiscal policy shocks have a stronger impact in times of economic recession than in times of expansion, which confirm the hypothesis of asymmetric effects. However, the impact of government spending is stronger than the impact of public revenue during recession periods. In addition, fiscal policy decision-makers interact with Anti-Keynesian view (pro-cyclical). Our results imply that there is something to gain by using the "right instrument" at the "right time".

scholarly journals Do US Government Tax Revenues and Expenditures Respond to Debt Levels and Economic Conditions Asymmetrically over the Business Cycle?

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 8
Author(s):  
Steven P Cassou ◽  
Hedieh Shadmani
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Switching Regression ◽  
Us Government ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Government ◽  
Debt Levels

This paper empirically investigates whether there are asymmetries in the responses of US government tax revenue and expenditure to debt levels and economic conditions over the business cycle. State of the art regime switching regression models, including Threshold Regression and Markov Switching, are investigated. Both sides of the government budget show asymmetries, but the asymmetries for tax revenue show greater statistical significance. The results show that both tax revenue and expenditure respond to high debt levels, with the asymmetry in this response showing that fiscal authorities take weaker action in response to debt during poor economic times. In addition, the asymmetric response to economic conditions for both sides of the budget shows that stronger countercyclical policy is taken during poor economic times.

scholarly journals Strategi UMKM untuk Meningkatkan Perekonomian selama Pandemi Covid-19 pada saat New Normal

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-62
Author(s):  
Safira Aliyani Firdaus ◽  
Igo Fadilah Ilham ◽  
Liza Putri Aqidah ◽  
Safir Aliyani Firdaus ◽  
Setyani Agung Dwi Astuti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
New Normal ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to determine and analyze the appropriate strategies to improve the economy of MSMEs when new normal is applied due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.. The results obtained from this study indicated that there was a need for fast, precise and tangible steps from the government and business actors to overcome the losses that have occurred due to the pandemic and to make updates and evaluations of the business cycle following the current conditions so that businesses can continue to survive and develop.

Fiscal Multipliers and Their Relevance in a Currency Union – A Survey

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 259-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Illing ◽  
Sebastian Watzka
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Currency Union ◽  
Euro Crisis ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers ◽  
Role Of The State ◽  
The Business Cycle

Abstract The article reviews the debate on government spending multiplier and provides a detailed discussion of the underlying economic mechanisms, focusing on the role of the state of the business cycle and the monetary policy reaction. Special emphasis is on the effects of fiscal policy within a currency union and its implications for the euro crisis.

scholarly journals THE OPTIMAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE TAX BURDEN OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (06) ◽  
pp. 2298-2337 ◽  
Author(s):  
Konstantinos Angelopoulos ◽  
Stylianos Asimakopoulos ◽  
James Malley
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Wealth Inequality ◽  
Tax Burden ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Labor Skill ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Government ◽  
Optimal Taxes

This paper analyzes optimal capital and labor income taxation for households differentiated by labor skill, income, and wealth, under a balanced government budget, over the business cycle. A model incorporating capital–skill complementarity in production and differential access to labor and capital markets is developed to capture the cyclical characteristics of the US economy, as well as the empirical observations on wage (skill premium) and wealth inequality. We find that optimal taxes for middle-income households are more volatile than the remaining taxes. Moreover, the government re-allocates the total tax burden in bad times so that the share of total tax revenue paid by middle-income households rises. This share also rises for low-income households but by significantly less, whereas the tax share for skilled households falls.

scholarly journals The Culinary Sector MSME Survival Strategy in Effort to Restore Populist Economy Based on the Creative Industry during the Covid-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 7
Author(s):  
Mangasi Sinurat ◽  
Lilinesia Lilinesia ◽  
M Subhan ◽  
Amsyal Simanjuntak
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Research Method ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Creative Industry ◽  
Survival Strategy ◽  
New Normal ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to identify and analyze strategies to improve the economic recovery of MSMEs in the culinary sector during the Covid-19 pandemic and when the new normal era was implemented due to the impact of the Covid19 pandemic. The research method used is descriptive qualitative method.The results obtained from this study indicate that there is a need for quick, precise and real steps from the government and business actors to overcome the losses that have occurred due to the pandemic as well as updating and evaluating the business cycle following the current situation. happens so that the business can continue to survive and grow.

How Is Tax Policy Conducted Over the Business Cycle?

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 327-370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos A. Vegh ◽  
Guillermo Vuletin
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Tax Policy ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Tax Rates ◽  
Industrial Countries ◽  
Cyclical Behavior ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Shed Light

It is well known by now that government spending has typically been procyclical in developing economies but acyclical or countercyclical in industrial countries. Little, if any, is known, however, about the cyclical behavior of tax rates (as opposed to tax revenues, which are endogenous to the business cycle and, hence, cannot shed light on the cyclicality of tax policy). We build a novel dataset on tax rates for 62 countries for the period 1960–2013 that comprises corporate income, personal income, and value-added tax rates. We find that tax policy is acyclical in industrial countries but mostly procyclical in developing countries. (JEL E32, E64, H24, H25, O11, O23)

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