Research on Formation of Kondratiev Сycles in Canadian Economy

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-40
Author(s):  
Шишкин ◽  
Andrey Shishkin

This work is devoted to analysis of the formation of Kondratiev cycles in 1870– 2008.The study aims to obtain data about the possible formation of long cycles on the basis of spectral analysis of deviations from the trend of the time series of real GDP per capita. The study notes that the Kondratiev cycles had gainedthe greatest power by the early twentieth century. This is most clearly seen in the 1930s. Later during the study, we found that the power of the Kondratiev cycles is waning and becomes minimal by 1960. All the decreasingsegments of Kondratiev cycles do no exhibitneither bursts of power, nor any short-term increases in capacity. This study suggests that in the Canadian economy, the change of technological orders by the end of the twentieth century was notshaped in accordance with the time frame outlined by the Kondratiev cycles. For example, cycles with a period of 33,3 years had the most power,which may indicate that by the end of the twentieth century a change in technological structure has a shorter time framefor developed countries.


2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-46
Author(s):  
Zia Ur Rahman

The core objective of the study is to analyze the association between export and eco-nomic growth under the consideration of the time frame 1967 to 2017 for Pakistan economy. The review of literature assists to find out the frequently utilize factors are the real GDP per capita, export, import, trade openness, fiscal development and capi-tal formation possible determinants of the economic growth. However, Export Led Growth (ELG) hypothesis is oftenly employed to elaborate the affiliation between ex-port and the growth. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test approach to cointegration accompanied with the structural break and vector auto regressive (VAR) are employed to analysis the long-term association among real GDP per capita, ex-port, import, trade openness, fiscal development and capital formation. The empirical analysis confirms the cointegration among the factors and the ELG hypothesis holds in Pakistan economy. The Block Exogeneity reveals that export and the capital for-mation have strong influence to stimulate the economic growth. While all the other factors have cumulative influence on the growth. Moreover, the impulse response exposes that if the shock of real GDP per capita, import, trade openness, fiscal devel-opment and the capital formation are given to the export, then response of export would be positive in the coming time frame.



2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Левкина ◽  
Nataliya Levkina

The article presents the results of the analysis of Greek and Portuguese economic dynamics in order to identify Kondratiev waves, to divide them into periods, and to determine the point of originating ofnew technological modes. in Greek economy,the analysis of the time series of real GDP per capita for 1913–2008 revealed the presence of economic dynamics’cycles with a period of approximately 50 years, which can be identified as Kondratiev cycles (waves).The regression analysis of the time series of Greek and Portuguese real GDP per capita allowed to determine the date of beginning of the fourth and fifth half-waves of Kondratiev cycles and the date of origin of the fifth and sixth technological modes in Greek and Portuguese economies. The obtained results of the analysis showed that the origin of the fifth technological mode in both economies occurred in the 1950s, the sixth — in the late XX century. The results of the research may be used in order to construct models of technological modes’ productivity in Greece and Portugal.



2003 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
RAFAEL REUVENY ◽  
WILLIAM R. THOMPSON

Previous studies on economic convergence have been handicapped by the lack of sufficient serial data. Real GDP per capita are now available for 56 states. With some interpolation, we create series from 1870 to 1992 for Northern (developed countries) and Southern (lesser developed countries) aggregates. The data are explored by extending the leadership-long cycle perspective to deal with convergence. We find that North–South inequalities, at least those based on GDP per capita data, have been expanding. The corresponding growth rates reveal long waves, providing an important clue related to iterations of radical technological changes and their incomplete diffusion in explaining the North–South gap. We believe that convergence is unlikely any time soon without radical restructuring of global economic growth prospects.



2007 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 379-388 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stanislav Ivanov ◽  
Craig Webster

This paper presents a methodology for measuring the contribution of tourism to an economy's growth, which is tested with data for Cyprus, Greece and Spain. The authors use the growth of real GDP per capita as a measure of economic growth and disaggregate it into economic growth generated by tourism and economic growth generated by other industries. The methodology is compared with other existing methodologies; namely, Tourism Satellite Account, Computable General Equilibrium models and econometric modelling of economic growth.



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