Reaching for Returns in Retail Structured Investment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Doron Sonsino ◽  
Yaron Lahav ◽  
Yefim Roth
Keyword(s):  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Cumulative Prospect Theory ◽  
Bisection Algorithm ◽  
Certainty Equivalents ◽  
Future Performance ◽  
Risk Appetite ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Framed Field Experiment ◽  
Private Investors

The growing market for retail structured investment products and empirical evidence for excessive pricing of such products raise the hypothesis that private investors show increased risk appetite in structured investment contexts. A two-stage framed field experiment building on cumulative prospect theory is designed to test this hypothesis. Subjects’ expectations regarding the future performance of an underlying index are elicited first. A bisection algorithm is then applied to derive the certainty equivalents of 20 simple individually tailored deposits. The results support the increased risk appetite hypothesis, revealing that subjects reach for substantial gains and underweight tail loss events when evaluating the deposits. Similar results emerge in a follow-up experiment where the uncertain deposits are replaced by risky versions. While previous studies propose that misperception of complex terms and optimism contribute to the mispricing of structured instruments, the current experiments show that nonstandard risk appetite manifests in the valuation of simple well-defined products, controlling for expectations. This paper was accepted by Manel Baucells, decision analysis.

Decision-making of investment in navigation safety improving schemes with application of cumulative prospect theory

2018 ◽  
Vol 232 (6) ◽  
pp. 710-724 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Wang ◽  
Qing Liu ◽  
Tongle Yin
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Cumulative Prospect Theory ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Risk Appetite ◽  
Safety Investment ◽  
Navigation Safety

Navigation safety improving investment aims at mitigating risk and improving safety of shipping system, while decision-makers’ attitudes toward the uncertainty of shipping safety possess a characteristic of “bounded rationality.” To study the tendency of shipping safety investment decision-making with different risk perception and appetite, a decision-making method based on cumulative prospect theory is proposed in this article. First, we extract the decision attributes through analyzing the factors affecting shipping safety investment. Then, according to cumulative prospect theory, the value function and the probability weighting function for calculating cumulative prospect values of shipping investment attributes are given. Under the risk-based multi-attribute group decision-making framework, linear programming model and projection method are introduced to aggregate the weights of attributes and decision-makers, respectively. Furthermore, through a case study, the proposed methodology is utilized in Three Gorges Dam area, and the desirable safety investment scheme is determined from a set of candidate alternatives. The case study shows not only validity and feasibility of the decision-making approach but also the mechanism of shipping safety investment decision-making with consideration of the behavior characteristics of decision-makers such as reference dependence, risk appetite distortion, and loss aversion.

scholarly journals Extended GRA Method Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory with Probabilistic Hesitant Fuzzy Information for MAGDM and its Application to Green Supplier Selection

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ningna Liao ◽  
Guiwu Wei ◽  
Xudong Chen
Keyword(s):  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Simulation Analysis ◽  
Cumulative Prospect Theory ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Risk Appetite ◽  
Probabilistic Values ◽  
Grey Relational ◽  
Decision Elements ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract An extended grey relational analysis (GRA) method is introduced in this article to reduce the limitations of the classical GRA method using the cumulative prospect theory (CPT) which takes into account psychological factors such as the risk appetite of decision makers. Moreover, the circumstance of probabilistic hesitant fuzzy (PHF) which assigns probabilistic values to DMs’ different levels of hesitation shows its superiority when making decisions in a complex environment. Meanwhile the weighting vector of each attribute is calculated according to the entropy which is calculated by the different prospect decision elements. Thus, in this paper, we proposed an extended GRA method based on cumulative prospect theory in the probabilistic hesitant fuzzy circumstance and applying the model in the selection of the green supplier. At last, the comparative analysis and the simulation analysis are made to show the practicability of this newly proposed method.

Respiratory Complications in Outpatient Endoscopy with Endoscopist-Directed Sedation

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 255-259 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kilian Friedrich ◽  
Sabine G. Scholl ◽  
Sebastian Beck ◽  
Daniel Gotthardt ◽  
Wolfgang Stremmel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Antibiotic Treatment ◽  
Respiratory Infection ◽  
Endoscopic Procedure ◽  
Shortness Of Breath ◽  
Respiratory Complications ◽  
Endoscopic Procedures ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
High Incidence ◽  
Respiratory Complaints

Background & Aims: Respiratory complications represent an important adverse event of endoscopic procedures. We screened for respiratory complications after endoscopic procedures using a questionnaire and followed-up patients suggestive of respiratory infection.Method: In this prospective observational, multicenter study performed in Outpatient practices of gastroenterology we investigated 15,690 patients by questionnaires administered 24 hours after the endoscopic procedure.Results: 832 of the 15,690 patients stated at least one respiratory symptom after the endoscopic procedure: 829 patients reported coughing (5.28%), 23 fever (0.15%) and 116 shortness of breath (SOB, 0.74%); 130 of the 832 patients showed at least two concomitant respiratory symptoms (107 coughing + SOB, 17 coughing + fever, 6 coughing + coexisting fever + SOB) and 126 patients were followed-up to assess their respiratory complaints. Twenty-nine patients (follow-up: 22.31%, whole sample: 0.18%) reported signs of clinically evident respiratory infection and 15 patients (follow-up: 11.54%; whole sample: 0.1%) received therefore antibiotic treatment. Coughing or vomiting during the endoscopic procedure resulted in a 156.12-fold increased risk of respiratory complications (95% CI: 67.44 - 361.40) and 520.87-fold increased risk of requiring antibiotic treatment (95% CI: 178.01 - 1524.05). All patients of the follow-up sample who coughed or vomited during endoscopy developed clinically evident signs of respiratory infection and required antibiotic treatment while this occurred in a significantly lower proportion of patients without these symptoms (17.1% and 5.1%, respectively).Conclusions: We demonstrated that respiratory complications following endoscopic sedation are of comparably high incidence and we identified major predictors of aspiration pneumonia which could influence future surveillance strategies after endoscopic procedures.

Prevalence of Asymptomatic Cryptococcal Antigenemia and Association with Follow-up risk of Cryptococcal Meningitis and Mortality among HIV Infected Patients in North West India – A Prospective Cohort Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajendra Bhati ◽  
Pramendra Sirohi ◽  
Bharat Sejoo ◽  
Deepak Kumar ◽  
Gopal K Bohra ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cryptococcal Meningitis ◽  
Morbidity And Mortality ◽  
People Living With Hiv ◽  
Cryptococcal Antigen ◽  
North West ◽  
Cryptococcal Disease ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Living With Hiv ◽  
Inflammatory Syndrome

Objective: Cryptococcal meningitis is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in HIV infected individuals. In the era of universal antiretroviral therapy incidence of immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS) related cryptococcal meningitis has increased. Detection of serum cryptococcal antigen in asymptomatic PLHIV (People Living With HIV) and pre-emptive treatment with fluconazole can decrease the burden of cryptococcal disease. We conducted this study to find the prevalence of asymptomatic cryptococcal antigenemia in India and its correlation with mortality in PLHIV. Method and material: This was a prospective observational study. HIV infected ART naïve patients with age of ≥ 18 years who had CD4 counts ≤ 100 /µL were included and serum cryptococcal antigen test was done. These patients were followed for six months to look for the development of Cryptococcal meningitis and mortality. Results: A total of 116 patients were analysed. Asymptomatic cryptococcal antigenemia was detected in 5.17% patients and it correlated with increased risk of cryptococcal meningitis and mortality on follow-up in PLHIV. Conclusion: Serum cryptococcal positivity is correlated with increased risk of Cryptococcal meningitis and mortality in PLHIV. We recommend the screening of asymptomatic PLHIV with CD4 ≤ 100/µL for serum cryptococcal antigen, so that pre-emptive treatment can be initiated to reduce morbidity and mortality.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document