Why Perfect Tests May Not Be Worth Waiting For: Information as a Commodity

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Drakopoulos ◽  
R. S. Randhawa
Keyword(s):  
Operations Management ◽  
Heterogeneous Agents ◽  
Negative Answer ◽  
Social Planner ◽  
Test Accuracy ◽  
Medical Testing ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Course Of Action ◽  
Information Products ◽  
Limited Supply

Information products provide agents with additional information that can be used to update actions. In many situations, access to such products can be quite limited. For instance, in epidemics, there tends to be a limited supply of medical testing kits, or tests. These tests are information products because their output of a positive or a negative answer informs individuals and authorities on the underlying state and the appropriate course of action. In this paper, using an analytical model, we show how the accuracy of a test in detecting the underlying state affects the demand for the information product differentially across heterogeneous agents. Correspondingly, the test accuracy can serve as a rationing device to ensure that the limited supply of information products is appropriately allocated to the heterogeneous agents. When test availability is low and the social planner is unable to allocate tests in a targeted manner to the agents, we find that moderately good tests can outperform perfect tests in terms of social outcome. This paper was accepted by Charles Corbett, operations management.

scholarly journals Tactile Perception for Teleoperated Robotic Exploration within Granular Media

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-27
Author(s):  
Shengxin Jia ◽  
Veronica J. Santos
Keyword(s):  
Granular Media ◽  
Fluid Pressure ◽  
Tactile Sensor ◽  
Tactile Perception ◽  
Test Accuracy ◽  
Contact State ◽  
Buried Objects ◽  
Media Type ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Internal Fluid

The sense of touch is essential for locating buried objects when vision-based approaches are limited. We present an approach for tactile perception when sensorized robot fingertips are used to directly interact with granular media particles in teleoperated systems. We evaluate the effects of linear and nonlinear classifier model architectures and three tactile sensor modalities (vibration, internal fluid pressure, fingerpad deformation) on the accuracy of estimates of fingertip contact state. We propose an architecture called the Sparse-Fusion Recurrent Neural Network (SF-RNN) in which sparse features are autonomously extracted prior to fusing multimodal tactile data in a fully connected RNN input layer. The multimodal SF-RNN model achieved 98.7% test accuracy and was robust to modest variations in granular media type and particle size, fingertip orientation, fingertip speed, and object location. Fingerpad deformation was the most informative modality for haptic exploration within granular media while vibration and internal fluid pressure provided additional information with appropriate signal processing. We introduce a real-time visualization of tactile percepts for remote exploration by constructing a belief map that combines probabilistic contact state estimates and fingertip location. The belief map visualizes the probability of an object being buried in the search region and could be used for planning.

scholarly journals Designing an electronic blood-borne virus risk alert to improve uptake of testing

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (8) ◽  
pp. 800-807
Author(s):  
Paul van Schaik ◽  
Susan Lorrimer ◽  
David Chadwick
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Healthcare Workers ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Clinical Decision ◽  
Alert System ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Course Of Action ◽  
Within Subjects ◽  
Design Factors

The primary aim of the current study was to test the effect of the presentation design of a test alert system on healthcare workers’ (HCWs’) decision-making regarding blood-borne virus (BBV) testing. The secondary aim was to determine HCWs’ acceptance of the system. An online survey used a within-subjects research design with four design factors as independent variables. The dependent variable was clinical decision. Ten realistic descriptions of hypothetical patients were presented to participants who were asked to decide whether to request BBV testing. The effect of a pre-set course of action to request BBV testing was significant when additional information (cost-effectiveness, date of last BBV test or risk assessment) was not presented, with a 16% increase from 30 to 46% accept decisions. When risk assessment information was presented without a pre-set course of action, the effects of cost-effectiveness (27% increase) and last test date (23% decrease) were significant. The main reason for declining to test was insufficient risk. HCWs’ acceptance of the test alert system was high and resistance was low. We make recommendations from the results for the design of a subsequent real-world trial of the test alert system.

One Service, Two Models: a comparison of direct-to-specialist and managed specialty models in a provincial eConsult service (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheena Guglani ◽  
Clare Liddy ◽  
Amir Afkham ◽  
Rhea Mitchell ◽  
Erin Keely
Keyword(s):  
Case Volume ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Course Of Action ◽  
Patterns Of Use ◽  
New Information ◽  
Usage Patterns ◽  
Utilization Data ◽  
Survey Responses ◽  
Sectional Analysis

BACKGROUND The Ontario eConsult Service allows a primary care provider (PCP) to access specialist advice through two models: direct-to-specialist (DTS), where PCPs select a specialist from a directory, and BASE™ managed specialty service, where PCPs choose a specialty group and are assigned a specialist from a qualified pool based on availability. OBJECTIVE To examine patterns of use between the two models of eConsult delivery. METHODS We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of utilization data collected from eConsults completed between October 2018 and September 2019. Cases were grouped based on the model used for submission (i.e., BASE™ or DTS). Each model was assessed for the number of cases submitted over time, proportion resulting in new/additional information, impact on PCP’s decision to refer, and billing time. RESULTS PCPs submitted 26,121 eConsults during the study period. Monthly case volume increased 43% over the duration of the study, primarily in the BASE™ model (69% vs 7% for DTS). PCPs were able to confirm a course of action that they originally had in mind in 41% of cases for both models, and received advice for a new or additional course of action in 55% (BASE™) and 56% (DTS) of cases. A referral was originally contemplated but avoided in 51% (BASE™) and 53% (DTS) of cases, originally contemplated and still needed in 20% (BASE™) and 18% (DTS), and neither originally contemplated or not needed in 22% (both models). CONCLUSIONS Both eConsult models received strong uptake. Usage patterns varied between models, with the majority of growth occurring under BASE™, but survey responses showed that both models provided similar outcomes in terms of new information offered and impact on decision to refer.

scholarly journals Do users benefit from additional information in support of operational drought management decisions in the Ebro basin?

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clara Linés ◽  
Ana Iglesias ◽  
Luis Garrote ◽  
Vicente Sotés ◽  
Micha Werner
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Decision Model ◽  
Irrigation District ◽  
Irrigation Season ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Drought Management ◽  
Ebro Basin ◽  
Management Decisions ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Course Of Action

Abstract. We follow a user based approach to examine operational drought management decisions and how the role of information such as from remote sensing can be assessed. First we consulted decision makers at basin, irrigation district and farmer scale in the Ebro basin to investigate the drought related decisions they take and the information they use to support their decisions. This allowed us to identify the courses of action available to the farmers and water managers, and to analyse their choices as a function of the information they have available to them. Based on the findings of the consultation, a decision model representing the interrelated decisions of the irrigation association and the farmers was built with the aim to quantify the effect of additional information on the decisions. The modelled decisions, which consider the allocation of water, are determined by the expected availability of water during the irrigation season. This is currently primarily informed by observed reservoir level data. The decision model was then extended to include additional information on snow cover from remote sensing. The additional information was found to contribute to better decisions in the simulation and ultimately higher benefits for the farmers. However, the ratio between the cost of planting and the market value of the crop proved to be a critical aspect in determining the best course of action to be taken and the value of the (additional) information. Risk averse farmers were found to benefit least from the additional information, while less risk averse farmers can benefit most as the additional information helps them take better informed decisions when weighing their options.

Overview of Ethical Approaches (DRAFT)

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert C. Macauley
Keyword(s):  
Virtue Ethics ◽  
Ethical Dilemmas ◽  
Ethics Of Care ◽  
Narrative Ethics ◽  
Multiple Viewpoints ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Course Of Action ◽  
Significant Disagreement ◽  
Ethical Approaches

While there exists significant disagreement among bioethicists as to the appropriate course of action in specific cases, there is actually general agreement about how to approach ethical dilemmas. This involves classifying the nature of the dilemma, reviewing existing information, acquiring additional information, analyzing the issue from multiple viewpoints, and formulating a response in light of potential criticisms. Potential analytic viewpoints include principlism, consequentialism, virtue ethics, casuistry, narrative ethics, and the ethics of care. When a clear resolution is not possible, ideally the situation can be temporized or clearly unacceptable options—including rationing at the bedside—eliminated, in the hopes of further resolution eventually occurring.

Design and Dynamic Pricing of Vertically Differentiated Inventories

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (9) ◽  
pp. 4222-4241 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ioannis Stamatopoulos ◽  
Christos Tzamos
Keyword(s):  
Operations Management ◽  
Dynamic Pricing ◽  
Product Line ◽  
Limited Resources ◽  
Social Planner ◽  
Product Line Design ◽  
Quality Profile ◽  
The Social ◽  
Heterogeneous Quality ◽  
Line Design

We study a model in which a monopoly firm designs the quality profile of its inventory and then dynamically updates its pricing menu for a finite selling horizon to maximize revenue. In a counterfactual scenario, a social planner goes through the same process to maximize total welfare. We show that in both scenarios the problem of dynamically pricing heterogeneous-quality (vertically differentiated) inventories is equivalent to that of dynamically pricing homogeneous-quality inventories, in the sense that a solution to one implies a solution to the other. Moreover, we prove a strong scarcity result, which suggests that the sale of a product drives up the prices on all remaining products, whether of higher or lower quality. We then consider product line design under a production technology that utilizes costly and potentially limited resources. We show that with unlimited (but costly) resources, the revenue maximizer undersupplies quality to all products compared with the social planner. With limited resources, we show that the revenue maximizer exhibits elitism: he overallocates (underallocates) resources on the production of high-quality (low-quality) products. However, as the volume of expected consumer arrivals increases to infinity, both the revenue maximizer and the welfare maximizer allocate resources equally across products. This paper was accepted by Serguei Netessine, operations management.

scholarly journals Preferential interactions promote blind cooperation and informed defection

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (49) ◽  
pp. 13995-14000 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfonso Pérez-Escudero ◽  
Jonathan Friedman ◽  
Jeff Gore
Keyword(s):  
Common Sense ◽  
Experimental Tests ◽  
Information Gathering ◽  
Diverse Population ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Course Of Action ◽  
Preferential Interactions ◽  
Actual Decision ◽  
Do So

It is common sense that costs and benefits should be carefully weighed before deciding on a course of action. However, we often disapprove of people who do so, even when their actual decision benefits us. For example, we prefer people who directly agree to do us a favor over those who agree only after securing enough information to ensure that the favor will not be too costly. Why should we care about how people make their decisions, rather than just focus on the decisions themselves? Current models show that punishment of information gathering can be beneficial because it forces blind decisions, which under some circumstances enhances cooperation. Here we show that aversion to information gathering can be beneficial even in the absence of punishment, due to a different mechanism: preferential interactions with reliable partners. In a diverse population where different people have different—and unknown—preferences, those who seek additional information before agreeing to cooperate reveal that their preferences are close to the point where they would choose not to cooperate. Blind cooperators are therefore more likely to keep cooperating even if conditions change, and aversion to information gathering helps to interact preferentially with them. Conversely, blind defectors are more likely to keep defecting in the future, leading to a preference for informed defectors over blind ones. Both mechanisms—punishment to force blind decisions and preferential interactions—give qualitatively different predictions, which may enable experimental tests to disentangle them in real-world situations.

Ex ante coherence shifts

2020 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dan Simon ◽  
Keith J. Holyoak
Keyword(s):  
Course Of Action ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Rational Reasoning

Abstract Cushman characterizes rationalization as the inverse of rational reasoning, but this distinction is psychologically questionable. Coherence-based reasoning highlights a subtler form of bidirectionality: By distorting task attributes to make one course of action appear superior to its rivals, a patina of rationality is bestowed on the choice. This mechanism drives choice and action, rather than just following in their wake.

Production of New and Revised A.A.V.S.O. Charts

1979 ◽  
Vol 46 ◽  
pp. 368
Author(s):  
Clinton B. Ford
Keyword(s):  
Variable Star ◽  
Standard Form ◽  
Original Data ◽  
University Of Pennsylvania ◽  
Standard Format ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
The Gift ◽  
The University

A “new charts program” for the Americal Association of Variable Star Observers was instigated in 1966 via the gift to the Association of the complete variable star observing records, charts, photographs, etc. of the late Prof. Charles P. Olivier of the University of Pennsylvania (USA). Adequate material covering about 60 variables, not previously charted by the AAVSO, was included in this original data, and was suitably charted in reproducible standard format.Since 1966, much additional information has been assembled from other sources, three Catalogs have been issued which list the new or revised charts produced, and which specify how copies of same may be obtained. The latest such Catalog is dated June 1978, and lists 670 different charts covering a total of 611 variables none of which was charted in reproducible standard form previous to 1966.

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