Social Vulnerability and Flood Exposure during Hurricane Sandy

Climate change adaptation policy requires assessing a community's vulnerability based on its socio-economic characteristics. A predominant approach to vulnerability assessment is indicator-based, wherein variables are aggregated to assess the vulnerability of units in a system (e.g., neighborhoods in a city). Here we show that a particular evidence-based predictive statistics approach can address two shortcomings of the most commonly-used indicator-based approach: lack of a means of validation and problematic weighting of individual indicators. We demonstrate how robust evidence-based models can produce frameworks that overcome these limitations. Using the case study of Hurricane Sandy in the State of New Jersey, we conducted two-pronged validated vulnerability assessments, based on insurance claim payouts and assistance grants. The latter needs-based assessment shows that “Minorities” are substantially more vulnerable than others based on a significant negative association with assistance approval rate (approved claims divided by all claims). Our findings highlight issues discussed in the literature within the context of climate justice and equity. Such an approach is helpful locally, but also when adaptation plans are developed over broad scales of time and space considering disparities between regions or across multiple jurisdictions.

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Exposure, Social Vulnerability and Recovery Disparities in New Jersey after Hurricane Sandy

Journal of Extreme Events ◽

10.1142/s234573761450002x ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 01 (01) ◽

pp. 1450002 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

Susan L. Cutter ◽

Ronald L. Schumann ◽

Christopher T. Emrich

Keyword(s):

New York ◽

New Jersey ◽

Water Depth ◽

Social Vulnerability ◽

Flood Hazard ◽

Damage Zone ◽

Hurricane Sandy ◽

Housing Tenure ◽

Government Support ◽

Small Business Administration

Hurricane Sandy's 80 mph wind speeds did not achieve major hurricane status on the Saffir-Simpson scale, yet the storm had extreme consequences for the New York metropolitan area. Post-event recovery has been quite variable across the region, especially in New Jersey. This paper examines the progression of recovery at two time intervals — 6 months and 1 year after the storm made landfall. Based on in situ observations of reconstruction and repair within the surge damage zone along New Jersey's coast (N = 765 locations or points), we hypothesize that the timing and distribution of recovery is based on exposure (water depth, prior flood experience, building heights), vulnerability (social vulnerability, seasonal occupancy), and government support (FEMA assistance, Small Business Administration loans). Predictions of recovery (recovered, not recovered) based on these input measures is quite good at 6 months (80 percent correctly predicted) with slight improvements at 1 year (82 percent correctly predicted). The model is much better at predicting recovered points than recovering. In terms of the individual factors predicting recovery the level of exposure is the most significant, statewide. Within the two most affect counties — Monmouth and Ocean — only water depth and building height were significant predictors. Housing tenure (seasonal occupancy) was an important predictor of the location and timing of recovery for the first 6 months, especially in Monmouth County, but became insignificant thereafter. Government support in the form of FEMA individual assistance grants was a significant predictor statewide in both time periods. Clearly other factors are influencing the pace and location of recovery including confusion surrounding flood hazard zones and insurance. Those factors influencing the lack of recovery for the roughly 20 percent of our observations awaits further, more detailed analyses.

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Flood exposure and social vulnerability in the United States

Natural Hazards ◽

10.1007/s11069-020-04470-2 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Eric Tate ◽

Md Asif Rahman ◽

Christopher T. Emrich ◽

Christopher C. Sampson

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Rural Areas ◽

Social Vulnerability ◽

Spatial Association ◽

The United States ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Us South ◽

Flood Exposure ◽

The Us ◽

High Flood

AbstractHuman exposure to floods continues to increase, driven by changes in hydrology and land use. Adverse impacts amplify for socially vulnerable populations, who disproportionately inhabit flood-prone areas. This study explores the geography of flood exposure and social vulnerability in the conterminous United States based on spatial analysis of fluvial and pluvial flood extent, land cover, and social vulnerability. Using bivariate Local Indicators of Spatial Association, we map hotspots where high flood exposure and high social vulnerability converge and identify dominant indicators of social vulnerability within these places. The hotspots, home to approximately 19 million people, occur predominantly in rural areas and across the US South. Mobile homes and racial minorities are most overrepresented in hotspots compared to elsewhere. The results identify priority locations where interventions can mitigate both physical and social aspects of flood vulnerability. The variables that most distinguish the clusters are used to develop an indicator set of social vulnerability to flood exposure. Understanding who is most exposed to floods and where, can be used to tailor mitigation strategies to target those most in need.

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Flood Exposure and Social Vulnerability for Prioritizing Local Adaptation of Urban Storm Water Systems

Lecture Notes in Mechanical Engineering - Asset Intelligence through Integration and Interoperability and Contemporary Vibration Engineering Technologies ◽

10.1007/978-3-319-95711-1_5 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 41-49

Author(s):

Tanvir Ahmed ◽

Abbas El-Zein ◽

Fahim Nawroz Tonmoy ◽

Federico Maggi ◽

Kon Shing Kenneth Chung

Keyword(s):

Local Adaptation ◽

Social Vulnerability ◽

Water Systems ◽

Storm Water ◽

Flood Exposure ◽

Urban Storm

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Leveraging Hazard, Exposure, and Social Vulnerability Data to Assess Flood Risk to Indigenous Communities in Canada

International Journal of Disaster Risk Science ◽

10.1007/s13753-021-00383-1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Liton Chakraborty ◽

Jason Thistlethwaite ◽

Andrea Minano ◽

Daniel Henstra ◽

Daniel Scott

Keyword(s):

Flood Risk ◽

Social Vulnerability ◽

Flood Hazard ◽

Indigenous Communities ◽

Vulnerability Index ◽

Social Vulnerability Index ◽

National Scale ◽

Socioeconomic Vulnerability ◽

Flood Exposure ◽

Residential Properties

AbstractThis study integrates novel data on 100-year flood hazard extents, exposure of residential properties, and place-based social vulnerability to comprehensively assess and compare flood risk between Indigenous communities living on 985 reserve lands and other Canadian communities across 3701 census subdivisions. National-scale exposure of residential properties to fluvial, pluvial, and coastal flooding was estimated at the 100-year return period. A social vulnerability index (SVI) was developed and included 49 variables from the national census that represent demographic, social, economic, cultural, and infrastructure/community indicators of vulnerability. Geographic information system-based bivariate choropleth mapping of the composite SVI scores and of flood exposure of residential properties and population was completed to assess the spatial variation of flood risk. We found that about 81% of the 985 Indigenous land reserves had some flood exposure that impacted either population or residential properties. Our analysis indicates that residential property-level flood exposure is similar between non-Indigenous and Indigenous communities, but socioeconomic vulnerability is higher on reserve lands, which confirms that the overall risk of Indigenous communities is higher. Findings suggest the need for more local verification of flood risk in Indigenous communities to address uncertainty in national scale analysis.

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