scholarly journals Rising Unemployment in Nigeria-Public Debt to the Rescue?

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 280-290
Author(s):  
Jude Chukwunyere Iwuoha
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Inverse Relationship ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Critical Infrastructures ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Weak Growth ◽  
Stationarity Test

Among the macroeconomic challenges facing Nigeria as a country are weak growth of the economy, ever increasing unemployment rate, and increasing inequality occasioned by increasing poverty. In trying to mitigate these challenges, the Nigeria government usually run aborrowing. In all these, the unemployment rate keep rising year-on-year. In this study, we tried to find out whether borrowing will come to the rescue in reducing unemployment in Nigeria, using time series data from 1981 - 2019. Employing the VECM model, we carried out the stationarity and cointegration tests respectively. While the stationarity test confirmed all variables being stationary at I(1), existence of cointegration was also confirmed indicating a relationship between public debt and unemployment which turned out to be an inverse relationship. A high value of ECM was recorded. It was found that unemployment granger causes government debt and debt servicing. The overall result shows that public debt have rendered little or no assistance in combating unemployment in Nigeria. While we do not discourage government from borrowing for the provision of critical infrastructures, corruption should be put in check so as to allow the amount of borrowing be reflected on the infrastructures available, as public debt also have some adverse effects on the economy.

scholarly journals The Causal Nexus between Public Debt and Economic Growth, A Multivariate Time Series Analysis: Experience from a SAARC Nation

2020 ◽  
pp. 45-52
Author(s):  
Subroto Dey ◽  
Subrata Saha ◽  
Dipti Bhowmik
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Control Variable ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Short Run

This research paper enquires about the topicality of the dependence of Bangladesh’s economy on public debt. Several authors examined the bearings of public debt and economic growth in different counties and they provided mixed results about the direction of the relation. This study is conducted to find out the causal relationship between public debt and growth from the perspective of Bangladesh’s economy, and we use export as a control variable. We excerpted annual time series data from the World Bank website (WDI), IMF, and fiscal year 1986 to 2018 data were gathered. One can treat budget deficit as the mother of public debt because the incarnation of the former usually precedents to the creation of the later. Several econometric tools have been behaved as Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips – Peron (PP), Johansen co integration, Vector error correction model, and Granger casualty to explore short-run causality of public debt on growth.

scholarly journals Does Dodd Frank Act Affect Macroeconomic Variables?

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 93-100
Author(s):  
Nahid Kalbasi Anaraki
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Financial Regulations

The introduction of Dodd Frank Act has induced lots of controversy among economists on its macroeconomic outcomes; though some see it is a necessary piece of legislation, which can avoid future financial crisis, many think it is detrimental to private investment and employment. To see how the Act affect real macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth, investment, and unemployment rate, this study implements econometric models with time series data over the period of 1990-2015 to estimate how financial regulations in general and Dodd Frank Act in particular affects the above-mentioned variables. The results of this study suggest that the Act has a negative significant impact on GDP growth, private investment, and unemployment rate.    

scholarly journals GLOBALISASI EKONOMI DAN PENGANGGURAN: STUDI KASUS INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 263
Author(s):  
Ari Setyawan ◽  
I Wayan Suparta ◽  
Neli Aida
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Economic Globalization ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Government

ABSTRACTThis study aims to examine the effect of economic globalization on the unemployment rate in Indonesia and the relationship of other macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, inflation rate, and real wage with unemployment. The data used is in the form of annual time series data from 1986 to 2018, whose research results are analyzed using the ARDL method. This study concludes that economic globalization can reduce the unemployment rate in Indonesia in the short term, although in the long term, it increases the unemployment rate. Economic growth and inflation in the short and long term have not been able to reduce the current unemployment rate, while the increase in real wages has reduced the unemployment rate in the short term, although not in the long term. By looking at these results, we need to be wary of economic globalization because economic globalization has a destructive impact in the long term. So that concrete and consistent efforts are needed from the government, the private sector, and other stakeholders so that Indonesia gets the maximum benefit from economic globalization, especially in job creation and reducing unemployment.JEL : B22, E22.Keywords : unemployment, economic globalization, economic growth, inflation, real wages. ABSTRAKPenelitian ini bertujuan melihat pengaruh tingkat globalisasi ekonomi terhadap tingkat pengangguran di Indonesia serta hubungan variabel makroekonomi lain seperti tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi, tingkat inflasi dan tingkat upah riil dengan tingkat pengangguran. Data yang dipergunakan berupa data time series tahunan dari periode 1986 hingga 2018 yang hasil penelitiannya dianalisis menggunakan metode ARDL. Kesimpulan penelitian ini yaitu globalisasi ekonomi mampu mengurangi tingkat pengangguran di Indonesia dalam jangka pendek meskipun dalam jangka panjang malah meningkatkan tingkat pengangguran. Pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi baik dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjangnya belum mampu menurunkan tingkat pengangguran yang ada sedangkan naiknya upah riil mampu menurunkan tingkat pengangguran dalam jangka pendek meskipun tidak dalam jangka panjang. Dengan melihat hasil ini, kita perlu waspada terhadap globalisasi ekonomi karena globalisasi ekonomi ini memiliki dampak buruk dalam jangka panjang sehingga dibutuhkan upaya kongkrit dan konsisten baik dari pemerintah, swasta maupun para stakeholder lain agar Indonesia memperoleh manfaat yang sebesar-besarnya dari globalisasi ekonomi khusunya dalam upaya penciptaan lapangan kerja dan mengurangi pengangguran.

scholarly journals Comment on "Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming" by Beenstock et al. (2012) – some hazards in econometric modelling of climate change

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 375-384 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Pretis ◽  
D. F. Hendry
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Anthropogenic Impact ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Econometric Modelling ◽  
Empirical Modelling ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Polynomial Cointegration ◽  
Made In

Abstract. We outline six important hazards that can be encountered in econometric modelling of time-series data, and apply that analysis to demonstrate errors in the empirical modelling of climate data in Beenstock et al. (2012). We show that the claim made in Beenstock et al. (2012) as to the different degrees of integrability of CO2 and temperature is incorrect. In particular, the level of integration is not constant and not intrinsic to the process. Further, we illustrate that the measure of anthropogenic forcing in Beenstock et al. (2012), a constructed "anthropogenic anomaly", is not appropriate regardless of the time-series properties of the data.

scholarly journals Moving forward with time series analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 205316801773223
Author(s):  
Peter K. Enns ◽  
Nathan J. Kelly ◽  
Takaaki Masaki ◽  
Patrick C. Wohlfarth
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Standard Procedures ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
General Error

In a recent Research and Politics article, we showed that for many types of time series data, concerns about spurious relationships can be overcome by following standard procedures associated with cointegration tests and the general error correction model (GECM). Matthew Lebo and Patrick Kraft (LK) incorrectly argue that our recommended approach will lead researchers to identify false (i.e., spurious) relationships. In this article, we show how LK’s response is incorrect or misleading in multiple ways. Most importantly, when we correct their simulations, their results reinforce our previous findings, highlighting the utility of the GECM when estimated and interpreted correctly.

scholarly journals NONLINEARITIES IN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DEBT AND GROWTH: (NO) EVIDENCE FROM OVER TWO CENTURIES

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 1563-1585 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus Eberhardt
Keyword(s):  
Economic Theory ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Empirical Approach ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The Relationship

I revisit the popular concern over a nonlinearity or threshold in the relationship between public debt and growth employing long time series data from up to 27 countries. My empirical approach recognizes that standard time series arguments for long-run equilibrium relations between integrated variables (cointegration) break down in nonlinear specifications such as those predominantly applied in the existing debt–growth literature. Adopting the novel cosummability approach, my analysis overcomes these difficulties to find no evidence for a systematic long-run relationship between debt and growth in the bivariate and economic theory-based multivariate specifications popular in this literature.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document