The Causal Nexus between Public Debt and Economic Growth, A Multivariate Time Series Analysis: Experience from a SAARC Nation

This research paper enquires about the topicality of the dependence of Bangladesh’s economy on public debt. Several authors examined the bearings of public debt and economic growth in different counties and they provided mixed results about the direction of the relation. This study is conducted to find out the causal relationship between public debt and growth from the perspective of Bangladesh’s economy, and we use export as a control variable. We excerpted annual time series data from the World Bank website (WDI), IMF, and fiscal year 1986 to 2018 data were gathered. One can treat budget deficit as the mother of public debt because the incarnation of the former usually precedents to the creation of the later. Several econometric tools have been behaved as Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips – Peron (PP), Johansen co integration, Vector error correction model, and Granger casualty to explore short-run causality of public debt on growth.

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Does Public Debt Service Expenditure Crowd-Out Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from an African Developing Country

Studia Universitatis Babe-Bolyai Oeconomica ◽

10.2478/subboec-2019-0013 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 64 (3) ◽

pp. 23-38

Author(s):

Talknice Saungweme ◽

Nicholas M. Odhiambo

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Public Debt ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Policy Formulation ◽

Debt Service ◽

Series Data ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

The Impact

Abstract This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the impact of public debt service on economic growth; and it provides an evidence-based approach to public policy formulation in Zimbabwe. The empirical analysis was performed by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to annual time-series data from 1970 to 2017. The study findings reveal that the impact of public debt service on economic growth in Zimbabwe is negative in the short run but positive in the long run. The results are suggestive of the existence of a crowding-out effect of public debt service in Zimbabwe in the short run and a crowding-in effect in the long run. In view of these findings, the government should consider fiscal and financial policies that promote a constant supply of long-term finance, long-term fixed investments, and extension of a government securities maturity structure so as to ensure sustainable short- and long-term public debt service expenditures. The study further recommends the strengthening of non-distortionary revenue mobilisation reforms to reduce market distortions and boost domestic investment.

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Political Stability and its Impact on Economic Growth of Pakistan (1988-2018): A Time Series Analysis

Journal of Accounting and Finance in Emerging Economies ◽

10.26710/jafee.v6i1.1087 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 6 (1) ◽

pp. 273-282

Author(s):

Majid Hussain Phul ◽

Muhammad Saleem Rahpoto ◽

Ghulam Muhammad Mangnejo

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Political Stability ◽

Series Data ◽

Explanatory Variables ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

The Impact ◽

Positive Effect

This research paper empirically investigates the outcome of Political stability on economic growth (EG) of Pakistan for the period of 1988 to 2018. Political stability (PS), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), total labor force (TLF) and Inflation (INF) are important explanatory variables. Whereas for model selection GDPr is used as the dependent variable. To check the stationary of time series data Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root (UR) test has been used, and whereas to find out the long run relationship among variables, OLS method has been used. The analysis the impact of PS on EG (EG) in the short run, VAR model has been used. The outcomes show that all the variables (PS, GFCF, TLF and INF) have a significantly positive effect on the EG of Pakistan in the long run period. But the effect of PS on GDP is smaller. Further, in this research we are trying to see the short run relationship between GDP and other explanatory variables. The outcomes show that PS does not have such effect on GDP in the short run analysis. While GFCF, TLF and INF have significantly positive effect on GDP of Pakistan in the short run period.

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Do banking sector reforms cause economic growth?: Empirical evidence from Africa’s largest economy

Corporate Ownership and Control ◽

10.22495/cocv13i1c5p3 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

pp. 553-564

Author(s):

Andy Titus Okwu ◽

Olusola Babatunde Falaiye ◽

Rowland Tochukwu Obiakor ◽

Ajibola Joseph Olusegun

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series ◽

Banking Sector ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Series Data ◽

Real Sector ◽

Reform Strategies ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

And Control

This paper employed time series data on relevant empirical diagnostics to examine banking sector growth-led nexus within the context of Africa’s largest economy, Nigeria. Diagnostics established stationarity of banking sector indicators and control variables at first difference. Findings showed no causal relationships between banking sector reforms and economic growth in the short-run and that, though liberalisation in particular did not Granger-cause growth of the economy during the study period, banking sector reforms caused growth of the real sector of the Nigerian economy. Hence, the caveat was that long-run growth effects of banking sector reforms on real sectors of economies are functions of policy targets of such banking or financial sectors reform strategies. Consequently, articulation of banking and financial sectors reforms within long-run rather than short-run perspectives and complementarity of liberalisation were recommended.

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Financial Development and Stock Traded Contributions towards Economic Growth

Journal of Management Info ◽

10.31580/jmi.v5i1.34 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

pp. 5-8

Author(s):

Shehper Maryam Zafar ◽

Nadia Bukhari

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series ◽

Financial Development ◽

Positive Relationship ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Series Data ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

Long Term Impact

This purpose of this research is check the long run as well as short run impact of Financial Development and Stock traded on the economic growth in the scenario of Pakistan. The time series data has taken for the year 1988-2013. This paper utilized ARDL methodology to determine long-term impact of Financial Development and Stock Traded on Economic growth. Further Granger Causality Check has used to check a uni-directional relationship. The results of this test support that FD and stock traded has a uni-directional impact over economic growth. Further, it has depicted from ARDL that there is a positive relationship between FD and Economic Growth as well as Stock Traded and Economic Growth.

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Impact of inflation on economic growth in Pakistan

Economic Consultant ◽

10.46224/ecoc.2021.2.4 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 34 (2) ◽

pp. 33-41

Author(s):

Ijaz Uddin ◽

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Series Data ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Long Run ◽

Integration Test ◽

Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽

Short Run ◽

The Relationship

Introduction. High and sustained economic growth with low inflation is the central objective of the macroeconomic policy makers. Therefore, inflation has been one of the most researched topics in macroeconomics for the last many years because it has serious implications for GDP growth. The main aim of this empirical study to examined the relationship b/w (GDP) Gross Domestic Product Growth and inflation in Pakistan by using time series data from 1990 to 2015. Methodology. This study apply (ADF) Augmented dickey fuller test for stationary, and then, Engel Granger Co-integration test, for short run and long run association. Results. There is a strong positive and significance relationship between GDP growth and inflation in Pakistan. Which indicate that is a 1unit increase an inflation rate will caused by GDP increased by 0.27 unit.

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Islamic Capital Markets and Economic Growth

Islamic Banking and Finance Review ◽

10.32350/ibfr.2019.06.03 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 6 ◽

pp. 39-58

Author(s):

Dr. Mohammad Ayaz ◽

Dr.Hassan Shakeel Shah ◽

Dr. Talat Hussain ◽

Majid Iqbal

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series ◽

Capital Markets ◽

Quantitative Research ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Series Data ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Independent Variables ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run

This research was conducted to find out whether Islamic capital markets (ICMs) have any effect on economic growth (EG). The study also made a comparison between three countries including Pakistan, Malaysia and UAE in this regard. Quantitative research technique was used in this study, where secondary and time series data was collected on a quarterly basis for the period 2009-2017. The effect of independent variables (IVs) on the dependent variable (DV) was examined. Co-integration and ARDL test were applied in Eviews 9 and Microfit 5.0. A growth model was developed for the selected countries separately in order to see whether IVs had any effect on DV. GDP was the DV of study while IMCAP, TNI and TNL were its IVs. It was found that in case of Pakistan and Malaysia, all the IVs had a significant effect on EG in the short run, while in the long run only IMCAP and TNI have a significant impact. In case of UAE, only two IVs (IMCAP and TNL) had a significant effect on EG in the short run, while in long run only one IV (IMCAP) has a significant impact. Further, it was found that IVs jointly had a significant effect on EG of the selected countries. So, this study concluded that ICMs do have a significant effect on EG of Pakistan, Malaysia and UAE. Considering the importance of ICMs in EG, regulators and policy makers are likely to benefit from the results of the current study which acts as a guide for developing and reforming the ICMs of Pakistan, Malaysia and UAE.Keywords: , ,

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Education And Economic Growth In Korea, 1966 To 1997

Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR) ◽

10.19030/jabr.v16i4.2056 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 16 (4) ◽

Author(s):

Namchul Lee

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series ◽

Human Capital ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Physical Capital ◽

Series Data ◽

Korean Society ◽

Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽

Aggregate Production Function

This paper examines the aggregate production function for Korea, using direct estimates of human capital.  The contribution of this study possibly provides be affirmation of the myriad role education plays in Korean society, including that of economic growth.  I have used the Cobb-Douglas production and time series data of physical capital, labor force, and human capital measurements. In terms of an estimation technique, I have used modern time series methods specifically designed to deal with covariance stationary based on the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root tests.  To date, these techniques have not been frequently used to explore the nature of quantity and quality human capital variables, physical capital, and labor variables.  This study has led me to the conclusion that the level of human capital is a significant determinant for economic growth.  The coefficient for the quality of human capital stock, however, I found to be negative and significant.  These measures ignore the important role of training and learning through practice, and the productivity effect of the educational curriculum.

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Pengaruh Belanja Modal Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia

Indonesian Treasury Review Jurnal Perbendaharaan Keuangan Negara dan Kebijakan Publik ◽

10.33105/itrev.v2i1.13 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

pp. 35-55

Author(s):

Puput Waryanto

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series ◽

Central Government ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Capital Expenditure ◽

Control Variable ◽

Series Data ◽

Goods And Services ◽

National Economic ◽

Operational Expenditure

The purpose of the study was to investigate the influence of capital expenditure on economic growth in Indonesia. The reasons of the study were the inconsistency of previous research results in many countries, the difficulty of achieving national economic growth target, and the low ratio of capital expenditure to Gross Domestic Product (GDP). By using time series data from 1990 to 2015 in Indonesia, this research has proved that the capital expenditure has a significant positive effect on economic growth. On the other hand, the operational expenditure, which consisted of personnel expense, goods and services expenses, interest, subsidies, grants and social assistance, had not a significant effect on economic growth. This study has considered inflation as a control variable. Consequently, the central government should be able to pay attention on capital expenditure, both on its quantity and quality. Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat seberapa besar pengaruh belanja modal terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Beberapa hal yang melatarbelakangi penelitian ini adalah masih adanya ketidakkonsistenan hasil penelitian di berbagai negara, masih sulitnya pencapaian target pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional, masih rendahnya rasio belanja modal terhadap PDB. Dengan menggunakan data time series selama 26 tahun mulai 1990 s.d. 2015 di Indonesia, penelitian ini telah membuktikan bahwa belanja modal berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, tetapi belanja operasi yang terdiri dari belanja pegawai, belanja barang, bunga, subsidi, hibah, dan bantuan sosial, tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Penelitian ini telah mempertimbangkan variabel kontrol berupa inflasi. Berkaitan dengan hasil penelitian, pemerintah pusat hendaknya terus memperhatikan belanja modal, baik dari segi kuantitas maupun kualitas belanja modal.

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Pre-COVID-19 evaluation of external debt, corruption and economic growth in South Africa

Review of Economics and Political Science ◽

10.1108/reps-03-2021-0019 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽

Author(s):

Ebenezer Gbenga Olamide ◽

Andrew Maredza

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

South Africa ◽

Time Series ◽

Time Series Data ◽

External Debt ◽

Public Institutions ◽

Series Data ◽

Content Type ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run

PurposeThis study is a pre-COVID-19 exposition of the existing situation about external debt-GDP relationship, incorporating corruption into the hypothesis, making South Africa the object of the study. The aim is to examine the causal relationship between corruption, economic growth and external debt, and in the end proffer solutions to the problems arising therefrom.Design/methodology/approachThe study employed ARDL technique on time series data running from 1990 to 2019 with real gross domestic product as the dependent variable and external debt, external debt servicing, corruption, inflation and capital formation as regressors. Necessary tests that include unit root, cointegration, CUSUM and CUSUMSq, normality, serial correlation and heteroscedasticity were performed on the model.FindingsThe study shows that corruption, inflation and external debt servicing exert negative influences on economic growth while the effect of investment on growth was positive. External debt's effect in the short run was positive while its long-run effect on growth was negative. Among other things, the need to improve and strengthen public institutions in addition to targeting tax evaders and avoiders for increased government revenue were emphasized.Originality/valueThe study incorporates corruption into the country specific debt-GDP debate as against earlier studies that excluded corruption in their time series analysis or that were cross-country based. The authors also exposit the existing knowledge of the debt-GDP hypothesis before the outbreak of COVID 19 pandemic. This is expected to serve as a precursor to subsequent studies on the rising debt of South Africa during and after the pandemic.

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Analysis of FDI and Financial improvements for the Economic growth

Journal of Management Info ◽

10.31580/jmi.v13i1.68 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

pp. 29-32

Author(s):

Nadia Bukhari ◽

Atiq ul Rahman Malik

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series ◽

Financial Development ◽

Positive Relationship ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Series Data ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

Long Term Impact

This study is conducted in order to check the long run as well as short run impact of FDI and Financial Development on the economic growth. The study is conducted in the scenario of Pakistan and the time series data is taken for the year 1972-2013. ARDL methodology is used to determine whether FDI has long-term impact on Economic growth or not. Moreover, Granger Causality is used to check a uni-directional relationship and the results support that FDI has an impact over economic growth. Further, it is depicted from ARDL that there is a positive relationship between FDI and Economic Growth.

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