scholarly journals GLOBALISASI EKONOMI DAN PENGANGGURAN: STUDI KASUS INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 263
Author(s):  
Ari Setyawan ◽  
I Wayan Suparta ◽  
Neli Aida
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Economic Globalization ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Government

ABSTRACTThis study aims to examine the effect of economic globalization on the unemployment rate in Indonesia and the relationship of other macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, inflation rate, and real wage with unemployment. The data used is in the form of annual time series data from 1986 to 2018, whose research results are analyzed using the ARDL method. This study concludes that economic globalization can reduce the unemployment rate in Indonesia in the short term, although in the long term, it increases the unemployment rate. Economic growth and inflation in the short and long term have not been able to reduce the current unemployment rate, while the increase in real wages has reduced the unemployment rate in the short term, although not in the long term. By looking at these results, we need to be wary of economic globalization because economic globalization has a destructive impact in the long term. So that concrete and consistent efforts are needed from the government, the private sector, and other stakeholders so that Indonesia gets the maximum benefit from economic globalization, especially in job creation and reducing unemployment.JEL : B22, E22.Keywords : unemployment, economic globalization, economic growth, inflation, real wages. ABSTRAKPenelitian ini bertujuan melihat pengaruh tingkat globalisasi ekonomi terhadap tingkat pengangguran di Indonesia serta hubungan variabel makroekonomi lain seperti tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi, tingkat inflasi dan tingkat upah riil dengan tingkat pengangguran. Data yang dipergunakan berupa data time series tahunan dari periode 1986 hingga 2018 yang hasil penelitiannya dianalisis menggunakan metode ARDL. Kesimpulan penelitian ini yaitu globalisasi ekonomi mampu mengurangi tingkat pengangguran di Indonesia dalam jangka pendek meskipun dalam jangka panjang malah meningkatkan tingkat pengangguran. Pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi baik dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjangnya belum mampu menurunkan tingkat pengangguran yang ada sedangkan naiknya upah riil mampu menurunkan tingkat pengangguran dalam jangka pendek meskipun tidak dalam jangka panjang. Dengan melihat hasil ini, kita perlu waspada terhadap globalisasi ekonomi karena globalisasi ekonomi ini memiliki dampak buruk dalam jangka panjang sehingga dibutuhkan upaya kongkrit dan konsisten baik dari pemerintah, swasta maupun para stakeholder lain agar Indonesia memperoleh manfaat yang sebesar-besarnya dari globalisasi ekonomi khusunya dalam upaya penciptaan lapangan kerja dan mengurangi pengangguran.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI DAN COUNTRY RISK TERHADAP INVESTASI PORTOFOLIO ASING DI INDONESIA

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 135
Author(s):  
Halifah Hadi ◽  
Hasdi Aimon ◽  
Dewi Zaini Putri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Country Risk ◽  
Growth Effect ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
The Stability

The reseach aims to explain the effect of country risk and variabels macroeconomics to the foreign portofolio invesment in Indonesia in short term and long term. The analysis takes time series time series data from 2006 quarter 1 through 2016 quarter 4by using Error Correction Model (ECM). The source of data are Badan Pusat Statistik, Bank Indonesia, FX Sauder and World Bank. The result are in the short term the exchange rate and economic growth effect the shock that will influence the foreign portofolio invesment. In the long trem the inflation, interst rate, money supply and country risk influence on foreign portofolio invesment significanly. The suggestion in this research is, the goverment sould keep the stability balance of payment in Indonesia .Any change, the condition of  balance of payments effect appreciation and depreciation to Rupiah. To increase the economic growth in Indonesia, goverment could increasing the fiscal income and PMDN realization that will  increase the enterprises productivity.

scholarly journals The effect of CO2 emissions in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 922 (1) ◽  
pp. 012026
Author(s):  
Z Yusuf ◽  
Wardhiah ◽  
G Syamni ◽  
M J A Siregar ◽  
Y A Sitepu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
The Government

Abstract This study was conducted to examine the effect of the variable use of CO2 emission gas and export variables on Indonesia’s economic growth. The data used in this study are time series data from the two variables for the period 2004 to 2019. All data were obtained from the world bank and accessed through the www.data.worldbank.org. The data analysis method used in this study uses an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model approach. The ARDL model is used to examine the short-term and long-term effects of CO2 gas emission variables and export variables. The results of the study found that the variable use of CO2 emission gas in the short term had a positive and insignificant effect on economic growth. The export variable has a significant positive effect on economic growth. Meanwhile, in the long term, the variable use of CO2 emission gas and the export variable has no effect on Indonesia’s economic growth. This finding shows that Indonesia’s economic growth is still determined by exports, but in the long term the government must work harder to increase its exports. In addition, export activities must not lead to the use of excessive CO2 emissions.

scholarly journals THE TESTING OF MONEY NEUTRALITY IN ECONOMIC GROWTH OF INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 12
Author(s):  
Muammil Sun’an ◽  
Amran Husen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Broad Sense ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model

<p>This study aim is to test the money neutrality in a narrow sense (M1) and a broad sense (M2) to the growth of output (GDP) in Indonesia, both in short term and long term. This research uses quarterly time series data at 2010 - 2016 periods. The analysis tool used is Error Correction Model (ECM). The results show that short-term money supply (M1 and M2) affect on output growth. However, in the long term, only money circulation in a broad sense (M2) affects on output growth, which also means that money is not neutral because it affects the real sector (GDP).</p><p> <strong>Keywords:</strong> M1, M2, Population, Capital, and Economic Growth.</p>

scholarly journals Analisis Peningkatan Upah Minimum Terhadap Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja di Provinsi Jawa Tengah

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 134-143
Author(s):  
Annisa Yulianti ◽  
Hadi Sasana
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Central Java ◽  
Meaningful Relationship ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Relationship Of

 This study aims to analyze the short-term and long-term relationship of increasing the minimum wage in Central Java on employment. The research method used is ECM. The variables of this study include labor, minimum wages, PMDN, and economic growth. The data used are time-series data from 1990-2020. The results show that the minimum wage has a positive and significant relationship to the employment in the long term but not significantly in the short time. PMDN has a negative but significant correlation in the short and long term. At the same time, the variable economic growth has a positive but not meaningful relationship to employment absorption in the long and short term.

scholarly journals Track Irregularity Time Series Analysis and Trend Forecasting

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia Chaolong ◽  
Xu Weixiang ◽  
Wang Futian ◽  
Wang Hanning
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Measuring Point ◽  
Trend Forecasting ◽  
Changing Trend ◽  
Track Irregularity ◽  
Linear Differential

The combination of linear and nonlinear methods is widely used in the prediction of time series data. This paper analyzes track irregularity time series data by using gray incidence degree models and methods of data transformation, trying to find the connotative relationship between the time series data. In this paper, GM(1,1)is based on first-order, single variable linear differential equations; after an adaptive improvement and error correction, it is used to predict the long-term changing trend of track irregularity at a fixed measuring point; the stochastic linear AR, Kalman filtering model, and artificial neural network model are applied to predict the short-term changing trend of track irregularity at unit section. Both long-term and short-term changes prove that the model is effective and can achieve the expected accuracy.

scholarly journals Long Short Term Memory Recurrent Network for Standard and Poor’s 500 Index Modelling

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4.15) ◽  
pp. 25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Said Jadid Abdulkadir ◽  
Hitham Alhussian ◽  
Muhammad Nazmi ◽  
Asim A Elsheikh
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Recurrent Neural Network ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Forecasting time-series data are imperative especially when planning is required through modelling using uncertain knowledge of future events. Recurrent neural network models have been applied in the industry and outperform standard artificial neural networks in forecasting, but fail in long term time-series forecasting due to the vanishing gradient problem. This study offers a robust solution that can be implemented for long-term forecasting using a special architecture of recurrent neural network known as Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) model to overcome the vanishing gradient problem. LSTM is specially designed to avoid the long-term dependency problem as their default behavior. Empirical analysis is performed using quantitative forecasting metrics and comparative model performance on the forecasted outputs. An evaluation analysis is performed to validate that the LSTM model provides better forecasted outputs on Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) in terms of error metrics as compared to other forecasting models.  

scholarly journals FDI and long-term economic growth in Egypt

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-74
Author(s):  
Saif Alhakimi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Wage Structure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Impact

This research paper aims to empirically analyze the impact of FDI on the long-term economic growth of Egypt. An empirical model was developed to explain the aggregate output, including total labor force, capital stock, foreign direct investment, government expenditure, and the real exchange rate. Annual time-series data from 1990–2013 were then used to estimate the model. Prior to calculating this estimation, the properties of the time series were diagnosed, and an error-correction model was developed and assessed. The overall results suggest that foreign direct investment makes a positive, yet weak and insignificant, contribution to the long-term economic growth of Egypt. This finding warrants further investigation to explore the possible reasons behind it, such as the degree of spillover that FDI has on economic growth and its impact on employment in areas like job creation, wage structure, research, and development.

Resource–Economic Growth Nexus, Role of Governance, Financial Development, Globalisation and War: Dynamic Approach

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sorush Niknamian
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Good Governance ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Government ◽  
Rich Countries

This study reassesses the resource&ndash;economic growth nexus by incorporating several channels. Advanced panel time series techniques are used to analyse panel time series data from 1980 to 2015 in 31 oil-rich countries. Results show that oil rent augments economic growth; thus, oil rent is conducive rather than impediment for economic growth. The role of governance in economic growth is significant in the selected countries. Oil rent exerts a positive significant impact on economic growth in countries with good governance compare to countries with poor governance. Financial development is an unimportant channel in the resource&ndash;growth nexus because FD is often unable to mobilise oil rent from the government to the private sector in oil-rich countries. Globalisation is advantageous for countries and promote economic growth. Moreover, war exerts a significant negative effect on growth in the long term.

scholarly journals PENERAPAN AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG DALAM MEMODELKAN PENGARUH INFLASI, PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI, DAN FDI TERHADAP PENGANGGURAN DI INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 250
Author(s):  
Jumhur Jumhur
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Short And Long Term

This study aims to examine the effect of inflation, economic growth, and foreign investment on unemployment in Indonesia. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) analysis method to analyze the 1991-2018 time series data collected from the World Bank's World Development Indicators database. The results found that inflation has a negative and significant effect in the short term but not significant in the long term in Indonesia. Economic growth has a negative and significant effect on both short and             long-term unemployment in Indonesia, and foreign investment has a negative and significant effect on both short and long-term unemployment in Indonesia. Through the ARDL model, this research is able to prove that inflation, economic growth, foreign investment, and budgeting are proven to have long-term cointegration or move together in the long term. The four variables also have a dynamic short-term relationship that has a fairly high speed of adjustment towards equilibrium per year. Based on the results, policymakers, in this case the government must provide a conducive investment environment by eliminating the structural rigidity that exists in the economy to attract investment, both foreign and domestic investment, to encourage economic growth and create jobs in Indonesia.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH VARIABEL MAKRO EKONOMI TERHADAP INVESTASI ASING LANGSUNG (STUDY KASUS CHINA-INDONESIA).

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 103
Author(s):  
Ririn Martini Rezki ◽  
Yeniwati Yeniwati ◽  
Mike Triani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term

This research to analyze the influence of macro economic variables impact on Chinese Foreign Direct Investment in Indonesia. The influence of China’s economic growth, Indonesia’s economic growth, interest rates, inflation and exchange rates against Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) China in Indonesia in the long term and short term. Type of this research is descriptive research, the secondary data use form time series data, from 2001Q1 – 2016Q4, taken  from agencies and related institution, the analysis using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Error Correction Model (ECM) to see the influence in a long term and impact in the short term. This research show that Indonesia’s economic growth of China’s economic growth and inflation is have a significant effect in the long term Chinas’s FDI in Indonesia. Variable economic growth of Indonesia’s, interest rates, inflation, exchange rate in the short term influence China’s Foreign Direct Investment in Indonesia. How ever in the long term interest rates and exchange rate do not influence significantly, to China’s FDI in Indonesia.

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