scholarly journals An assessment of method for changepoint detection applied in tropospheric parameter time series given from numerical weather model.

2020 ◽  
pp. 101-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michal Elias
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Numerical Weather Model ◽  
Changepoint Detection ◽  
Weather Model

TOMOREF operator as a tool to improve weather forecasts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalia Hanna ◽  
Estera Trzcina ◽  
Maciej Kryza ◽  
Witold Rohm
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Initial State ◽  
Total Delay ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Numerical Weather Model ◽  
Weather Model ◽  
Tomography Data

<p>The numerical weather model starts from the initial state of the Earth's atmosphere in a given place and time. The initial state is created by blending the previous forecast runs (first-guess), together with observations from different platforms. The better the initial state, the better the forecast; hence, it is worthy to combine new observation types. The GNSS tomography technique, developed in recent years, provides a 3-D field of humidity in the troposphere. This technique shows positive results in the monitoring of severe weather events. However, to assimilate the tomographic outputs to the numerical weather model, the proper observation operator needs to be built.</p><p>This study demonstrates the TOMOREF operator dedicated to the assimilation of the GNSS tomography‐derived 3‐D fields of wet refractivity in a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Data Assimilation (DA) system. The new tool has been tested based on wet refractivity fields derived during a very intense precipitation event. The results were validated using radiosonde observations, synoptic data, ERA5 reanalysis, and radar data. In the presented experiment, a positive impact of the GNSS tomography data assimilation on the forecast of relative humidity (RH) was noticed (an improvement of root‐mean‐square error up to 0.5%). Moreover, within 1 hour after assimilation, the GNSS data reduced the bias of precipitation up to 0.1 mm. Additionally, the assimilation of GNSS tomography data had more influence on the WRF model than the Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) observations, which confirms the potential of the GNSS tomography data for weather forecasting.</p>

scholarly journals Validation of 7 Years in-Flight HY-2A Calibration Microwave Radiometer Products Using Numerical Weather Model and Radiosondes

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (13) ◽  
pp. 1616 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhilu Wu ◽  
Jungang Wang ◽  
Yanxiong Liu ◽  
Xiufeng He ◽  
Yang Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Microwave Radiometer ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Radiosonde Data ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Systematic Bias ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Numerical Weather Model ◽  
Weather Model ◽  
Interim Products

Haiyang-2A (HY-2A) has been working in-flight for over seven years, and the accuracy of HY-2A calibration microwave radiometer (CMR) data is extremely important for the wet troposphere delay correction (WTC) in sea surface height (SSH) determination. We present a comprehensive evaluation of the HY-2A CMR observation using the numerical weather model (NWM) for all the data available period from October 2011 to February 2018, including the WTC and the precipitable water vapor (PWV). The ERA(ECMWF Re-Analysis)-Interim products from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used for the validation of HY-2A WTC and PWV products. In general, a global agreement of root-mean-square (RMS) of 2.3 cm in WTC and 3.6 mm in PWV are demonstrated between HY-2A observation and ERA-Interim products. Systematic biases are revealed where before 2014 there was a positive WTC/PWV bias and after that, a negative one. Spatially, HY-2A CMR products show a larger bias in polar regions compared with mid-latitude regions and tropical regions and agree better in the Antarctic than in the Arctic with NWM. Moreover, HY-2A CMR products have larger biases in the coastal area, which are all caused by the brightness temperature (TB) contamination from land or sea ice. Temporally, the WTC/PWV biases increase from October 2011 to March 2014 with a systematic bias over 1 cm in WTC and 2 mm in PWV, and the maximum RMS values of 4.62 cm in WTC and 7.61 mm in PWV occur in August 2013, which is because of the unsuitable retrieval coefficients and systematic TB measurements biases from 37 GHz band. After April 2014, the TB bias is corrected, HY-2A CMR products agree very well with NWM from April 2014 to May 2017 with the average RMS of 1.68 cm in WTC and 2.65 mm in PWV. However, since June 2017, TB measurements from the 18.7 GHz band become unstable, which led to the huge differences between HY-2A CMR products and the NWM with an average RMS of 2.62 cm in WTC and 4.33 mm in PWV. HY-2A CMR shows high accuracy when three bands work normally and further calibration for HY-2A CMR is in urgent need. Furtherly, 137 global coastal radiosonde stations were used to validate HY-2A CMR. The validation based on radiosonde data shows the same variation trend in time of HY-2A CMR compared to the results from ECMWF, which verifies the results from ECMWF.

Synergistic Use of Satellite Observations and Numerical Weather Model to Study Atmospheric Occluded Fronts

2015 ◽  
Vol 53 (9) ◽  
pp. 5269-5279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaofeng Li ◽  
Xiaofeng Yang ◽  
Weizhong Zheng ◽  
Jun A. Zhang ◽  
Leonard J. Pietrafesa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Numerical Weather Model ◽  
Weather Model

scholarly journals PREDIKSI DEBIT SUNGAI BENGAWAN SOLO MENGGUNAKAN NUMERICAL WEATHER MODEL GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM DAN INTEGRATED FLOOD ANALYSIS SYSTEM (Prediction of discharge in Bengawan Solo River using Numerical Weather Model Global Forecast System and Integrated Flood Analysis System)

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-50
Author(s):  
Deffi Munadiyat Putri ◽  
◽  
Aries Kristianto ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Global Forecast System ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Numerical Weather Model ◽  
Weather Model ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
Discharge Simulation ◽  
Flood Analysis ◽  
Analysis System

Flood is one of the most common hydro-meteorological disasters. Bengawan Solo is one of the watersheds in Indonesia that also hit by this disaster. This study discusses the flood disaster in the Bengawan Solo area in early March 2019. The purpose of this study is to conduct a discharge simulation using numerical weather model Global Forecast System (GFS) data through Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) so it is possible to predict discharge in the future. There are three types of numerical weather model GFS data that have been downscale using weather research and forecasting model which differentiated based on spin-up time. The numerical weather model product is then used as rainfall data input for IFAS simulation. Based on the analysis, the flood discharge simulation using an 84-hour spin-up time has a satisfactory performance in describing the change in discharge with respect to time. This happens because numerical weather models will be better at quantifying processes that occur on a meso scale with spatial scale of 10 to 1000 km. The result of this research shows that it is possible to predict river discharge up to 84 hours before the disaster so this is can support the mitigation process for hydrometeorological disasters.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Numerical Weather Model–Based Satellite Precipitation Adjustment in Tropical Mountainous Regions

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 431-445 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinxuan Zhang ◽  
Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Satellite Precipitation ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Numerical Weather Model ◽  
Weather Model ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
Daily Scale

Abstract The study evaluated a numerical weather model (WRF)-based satellite precipitation adjustment technique with 81 heavy precipitation events that occurred in three tropical mountainous regions (Colombia, Peru, and Taiwan). The technique was applied on two widely used near-real-time global satellite precipitation products—the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH) and the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation project (GSMaP)—for each precipitation event. The WRF-adjusted satellite products along with the near-real-time and gauge-adjusted satellite products as well as the WRF simulation were evaluated by independent gauge networks at daily scale and event total scale. Results show that the near-real-time precipitation products exhibited severe underestimation relative to the gauge observations over the three tropical mountainous regions. The underestimation tended to be larger for higher rainfall accumulations. The WRF-based satellite adjustment provided considerable improvements to the near-real-time CMORPH and GSMaP products. Moreover, error metrics show that WRF-adjusted satellite products outperformed the gauge-adjusted counterparts for most of the events. The effectiveness of WRF-based satellite adjustment varied with events of different physical processes. Thus, the technique applied on satellite precipitation estimates of these events may exhibit inconsistencies in the bias correction.

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