Inequality of gender, age and disabilities due to leprosy and trends in a hyperendemic metropolis: Evidence from an eleven-year time series study in Central-West Brazil

The present study aimed to investigate the epidemiological situation of leprosy (Hansen’s Disease), in a hyperendemic metropolis in the Central-West region of Brazil. We studied trends over eleven years, both in the detection of the disease and in disabilities, analyzing disparities and/or differences regarding gender and age. This is an ecological time series study conducted in Cuiabá, capital of the state of Mato Grosso. The population consisted of patients diagnosed with leprosy between the years 2008 and 2018. The time series of leprosy cases was used, stratifying it according to gender (male and female), disability grade (G0D, G1D, G2D, and not evaluated) and age. The calendar adjustment technique was applied. For modeling the trends, the Seasonal-Trend decomposition procedure based on Loess (STL) was used. We identified 9.739 diagnosed cases, in which 58.37% were male and 87.55% aged between 15 and 59 years. Regarding detection according to gender, there was a decrease among women and an increase in men. The study shows an increasing trend in disabilities in both genders, which may be related to the delay in diagnosis. There was also an increasing number of cases that were not assessed for disability at the time of diagnosis, which denotes the quality of the services.

Download Full-text

The association between improved quality diabetes indicators, health outcomes and costs: towards constructing a “business case” for quality of diabetes care - a time series study

BMC Endocrine Disorders ◽

10.1186/1472-6823-14-92 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 14 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Rachel Wilf-Miron ◽

Arkadi Bolotin ◽

Nesia Gordon ◽

Avi Porath ◽

Ronit Peled

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Health Outcomes ◽

Diabetes Care ◽

Business Case ◽

Time Series Study ◽

Quality Of Diabetes Care ◽

Series Study

Download Full-text

Tuberculosis forecasting and temporal trends by gender and age in a high endemic city of Northeast Brazil: Are we achieving the disease elimination stage?

10.21203/rs.3.rs-147043/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Hamilton Leandro Andrade ◽

Luiz Arroyo ◽

Antônio Carlos Ramos ◽

Marcelino Neto ◽

Melina Yamamura ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Temporal Trend ◽

Moving Average ◽

Arima Model ◽

Temporal Trends ◽

Northeast Brazil ◽

Age Group ◽

Time Series Study ◽

Gender And Age ◽

Series Study

Abstract Objective: to describe the temporal trend of tuberculosis cases according to gender and age group and to make forecasts in an endemic municipality of northeast Brazil. Method: This was a Time Series study, carried out in a municipality in the northeast of Brazil. Population was composed of tuberculosis cases among residents of the municipality, reported between the years 2002 and 2018. An exploratory analysis of the monthly rates of tuberculosis detection, smoothed according to gender and age group, was performed. Subsequently, the progression of the trend and predictions of the disease were also characterized according to these aspects. For the trends forecast, the seasonal autoregressive linear integrated moving average – Seasonal ARIMA model and the usual Box-Jenkins method were used to choose the most appropriate models.Results: A total of 1,620 cases of tuberculosis were reported, with an incidence of 49.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in men and 34.0 per 100,000 in women. Regarding the incidence for both genders, there was a decreasing trend, which was similar for age. Evidence resulting from the application of the time series shows a decreasing trend between the years 2002–2018, however, it is unlikely that there will be a significant fall in the disease before 2022.

Download Full-text