scholarly journals Determinants of the Incidence of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in China Using Geographically Weighted Regression Models

PLoS ONE ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. e38978 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maogui Hu ◽  
Zhongjie Li ◽  
Jinfeng Wang ◽  
Lin Jia ◽  
Yilan Liao ◽  
...  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhi-Min Hong ◽  
Hu-Hu Wang ◽  
Yan-Juan Wang ◽  
Wen-Rui Wang

Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease (HFMD) is a common and widespread infectious disease. Previous studies have presented evidence that climate factors, including the monthly averages of temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, wind speed and Cumulative Risk (CR) all have a strong influence on the transmission of HFMD. In this paper, the monthly time-lag geographically- weighted regression model was constructed to investigate the spatiotemporal variations of effect of climate factors on HFMD occurrence in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China. From the spatial and temporal perspectives, the spatial and temporal variations of effect of climate factors on HFMD incidence are described respectively. The results indicate that the effect of climate factors on HFMD incidence shows very different spatial patterns and time trends. The findings may provide not only an indepth understanding of spatiotemporal variation patterns of the effect of climate factors on HFMD occurrence, but also provide helpful evidence for making measures of HFMD prevention and control and implementing appropriate public health interventions at the county level in different seasons.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bisong Hu ◽  
Wenqing Qiu ◽  
Chengdong Xu ◽  
Jinfeng Wang

Abstract Background: Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common infectious disease whose mechanism of transmission continues to remain a puzzle for researchers. The measurement and prediction of the HFMD incidence can be combined to improve the estimation accuracy, and provide a novel perspective to explore the spatiotemporal patterns and determinant factors of an HFMD epidemic. Methods: In this study, we collected weekly HFMD incidence reports for a total of 138 districts in Shandong province, China, from May 2008 to March 2009. A Kalman filter was integrated with geographically weighted regression (GWR) to estimate the HFMD incidence. Spatiotemporal variation characteristics were explored and potential risk regions were identified, along with quantitatively evaluating the influence of meteorological and socioeconomic factors on the HFMD incidence. Results: The results showed that the average error covariance of the estimated HFMD incidence by district was reduced from 0.3841 to 0.1846 compared to the measured incidence, indicating an overall improvement of over 50% in error reduction. Furthermore, three specific categories of potential risk regions of HFMD epidemics in Shandong were identified by the filter processing, with manifest filtering oscillations in the initial, local and long-term periods, respectively. Amongst meteorological and socioeconomic factors, the temperature and number of hospital beds per capita, respectively, were recognized as the dominant determinants that influence HFMD incidence variation. Conclusions: The estimation accuracy of the HFMD incidence can be significantly improved by integrating a Kalman filter with GWR and the integration is effective for exploring spatiotemporal patterns and determinants of an HFMD epidemic. Our findings could help establish more accurate HFMD prevention and control strategies in Shandong. The present study demonstrates a novel approach to exploring spatiotemporal patterns and determinant factors of HFMD epidemics, and it can be easily extended to other regions and other infectious diseases similar to HFMD.


Author(s):  
Sydney S. Breese ◽  
Howard L. Bachrach

Continuing studies on the physical and chemical properties of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) have included electron microscopy of RNA strands released when highly purified virus (1) was dialyzed against demlneralized distilled water. The RNA strands were dried on formvar-carbon coated electron microscope screens pretreated with 0.1% bovine plasma albumin in distilled water. At this low salt concentration the RNA strands were extended and were stained with 1% phosphotungstic acid. Random dispersions of strands were recorded on electron micrographs, enlarged to 30,000 or 40,000 X and the lengths measured with a map-measuring wheel. Figure 1 is a typical micrograph and Fig. 2 shows the distributions of strand lengths for the three major types of FMDV (A119 of 6/9/72; C3-Rezende of 1/5/73; and O1-Brugge of 8/24/73.


Author(s):  
S. S. Breese ◽  
H. L. Bachrach

Models for the structure of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) have been proposed from chemical and physical measurements (Brown, et al., 1970; Talbot and Brown, 1972; Strohmaier and Adam, 1976) and from rotational image-enhancement electron microscopy (Breese, et al., 1965). In this report we examine the surface structure of FMDV particles by high resolution electron microscopy and compare it with that of particles in which the outermost capsid protein VP3 (ca. 30, 000 daltons) has been split into smaller segments, two of which VP3a and VP3b have molecular weights of about 15, 000 daltons (Bachrach, et al., 1975).Highly purified and concentrated type A12, strain 119 FMDV (5 mg/ml) was prepared as previously described (Bachrach, et al., 1964) and stored at 4°C in 0. 2 M KC1-0. 5 M potassium phosphate buffer at pH 7. 5. For electron microscopy, 1. 0 ml samples of purified virus and trypsin-treated virus were dialyzed at 4°C against 0. 2 M NH4OAC at pH 7. 3, deposited onto carbonized formvar-coated copper screens and stained with phosphotungstic acid, pH 7. 3.


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