scholarly journals Efficiency-fairness trade-offs in evacuation management of urban floods: The effects of the shelter capacity and zone prioritization

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. e0253395
Author(s):  
Woi Sok Oh ◽  
David J. Yu ◽  
Rachata Muneepeerakul
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Optimal Strategies ◽  
Institutional Arrangement ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Complex Problem ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Intermediate Time ◽  
Balancing Efficiency

With increasing flood risk, evacuation has become an important research topic in urban flood management. Urban flood evacuation is a complex problem due to i) the complex interactions among several components within a city and ii) the need to consider multiple, often competing, dimensions/objectives in evacuation analysis. In this study, we focused on the interplay between two such objectives: efficiency and fairness. We captured the evacuation process in a conceptual agent-based model (ABM), which was analyzed under different hard infrastructure and institutional arrangement conditions, namely, various shelter capacity distributions as a hard infrastructure property and simultaneous/staged evacuation as an institutional arrangement. Efficiency was measured as the time it takes for a person to evacuate to safety. Fairness was defined by how equally residents suffered from floods, and the level of suffering depended on the perceived risk and evacuation time. Our findings suggested that efficiency is more sensitive to the shelter capacity distribution, while fairness changes more notably according to the evacuation priority assigned to the divided zones in staged evacuation. Simultaneous evacuation generally tended to be more efficient but unfairer than staged evacuation. The efficiency-fairness trade-off was captured by Pareto-optimal strategies, among which uniform capacity cases led to a higher efficiency while prioritizing high-risk residents increases fairness. Strategies balancing efficiency and fairness featured a uniform capacity and prioritized high-risk residents at an intermediate time delay. These findings more clearly exposed the interactions between different factors and could be adopted as benchmarks to inform more complicated evacuation ABMs.

scholarly journals Cross-cultural adaptation of the Perceived Risk of HIV Scale in Brazilian Portuguese

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Thiago S. Torres ◽  
Paula M. Luz ◽  
Luana M. S. Marins ◽  
Daniel R. B. Bezerra ◽  
Celline C. Almeida-Brasil ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Behaviors ◽  
Cultural Adaptation ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Brazilian Portuguese ◽  
Cross Cultural ◽  
Key Populations ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
High Risk Behaviors ◽  
Cross Cultural Adaptation

Abstract Background Valid and reliable instruments are needed to measure the multiple dimensions of perceived risk. The Perceived Risk of HIV Scale is an 8-item measure that assesses how people think and feel about their risk of infection. We set out to perform a cross-cultural adaptation of the scale to Brazilian Portuguese among key populations (gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men and transgender/non-binary) and other populations (cisgender heterosexual men and cisgender women). Methods Methodological study with cross-sectional design conducted online during October/2019 (key populations [sample 1] and other populations) and February–March/2020 (key populations not on pre-exposure prophylaxis [sample 2]). Cross-cultural adaptation of the Perceived Risk of HIV Scale followed Beaton et al. 2000 guidelines and included confirmatory factor analysis, differential item functioning (DIF) using the Multiple-Indicator Multiple-Cause model, and concurrent validity to verify if younger individuals, those ever testing for HIV, and engaging in high-risk behaviors had higher scores on the scale. Results 4342 participants from key populations (sample 1 = 235; sample 2 = 4107) and 155 participants from other populations completed the measure. We confirmed the single-factor structure of the original measure (fit indices for sample 1 plus other populations: CFI = 0.98, TLI = 0.98, RMSEA = 0.07; sample 2 plus other populations: CFI = 0.97, TLI = 0.95, RMSEA = 0.09). For the comparisons between key populations and other populations, three items (item 2: “I worry about getting infected with HIV”, item 4: “I am sure I will not get infected with HIV”, and item 8: “Getting HIV is something I have”) exhibited statistically significant DIF. Items 2 and 8 were endorsed at higher levels by key populations and item 4 by other populations. However, the effect of DIF on overall scores was negligible (0.10 and 0.02 standard deviations for the models with other populations plus sample 1 and 2, respectively). Those ever testing for HIV scored higher than those who never tested (p < .001); among key populations, those engaging in high-risk behaviors scored higher than those reporting low-risk. Conclusion The Perceived Risk of HIV Scale can be used among key populations and other populations from Brazil.

scholarly journals Uncertainty Assessment of Urban Hydrological Modelling from a Multiple Objective Perspective

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1393 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo Pang ◽  
Shulan Shi ◽  
Gang Zhao ◽  
Rong Shi ◽  
Dingzhi Peng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Flood Management ◽  
Uncertainty Assessment ◽  
Multiple Objective ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Validation Period ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
Calibration Period ◽  
Storm Water Management Model ◽  
Glue Method ◽  
Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation

The uncertainty assessment of urban hydrological models is important for understanding the reliability of the simulated results. To satisfy the demand for urban flood management, we assessed the uncertainty of urban hydrological models from a multiple-objective perspective. A multiple-criteria decision analysis method, namely, the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation-Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (GLUE-TOPSIS) was proposed, wherein TOPSIS was adopted to measure the likelihood within the GLUE framework. Four criteria describing different urban stormwater characteristics were combined to test the acceptability of the parameter sets. The TOPSIS was used to calculate the aggregate employed in the calculation of the aggregate likelihood value. The proposed method was implemented in the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), which was applied to the Dahongmen catchment in Beijing, China. The SWMM model was calibrated and validated based on the three and two flood events respectively downstream of the Dahongmen catchment. The results showed that the GLUE-TOPSIS provided a more precise uncertainty boundary compared with the single-objective GLUE method. The band widths were reduced by 7.30 m3/s in the calibration period, and by 7.56 m3/s in the validation period. The coverages increased by 20.3% in the calibration period, and by 3.2% in the validation period. The median estimates improved, with an increase of the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients by 1.6% in the calibration period, and by 10.0% in the validation period. We conclude that the proposed GLUE-TOPSIS is a valid approach to assess the uncertainty of urban hydrological model from a multiple objective perspective, thereby improving the reliability of model results in urban catchment.

Challenges in urban flood management: travelling across spatial and temporal scales

2008 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 81-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Zevenbergen ◽  
W. Veerbeek ◽  
B. Gersonius ◽  
S. Van Herk
Keyword(s):  
Flood Management ◽  
Temporal Scales ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales

Developing an Algorithm for Urban Flood Management With the Aim of Reducing Damage and Costs Using the Concept of Conditional Value at Risk 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedram Eshaghieh Firoozabadi ◽  
sara nazif ◽  
Seyed Abbas Hosseini ◽  
Jafar Yazdi
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Best Management Practices ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Surface Flow ◽  
Conditional Value At Risk ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
Proposed Model

Abstract Flooding in urban area affects the lives of people and could cause huge damages. In this study, a model is proposed for urban flood management with the aim of reducing the total costs. For this purpose, a hybrid model has been developed using SWMM and a quasi-two-dimensional model based on the cellular automata (CA) capable of considering surface flow infiltration. Based on the hybrid model outputs, the best management practices (BMPs) scenarios are proposed. In the next step, a damage estimation model has been developed using depth-damage curves. The amount of damage has been estimated for the scenarios in different rainfall return periods to obtain the damage and cost- probability functions. The conditional value at risk (CVaR) are estimated based on these functions which is the basis of decision making about the scenarios. The proposed model is examined in an urban catchment located in Tehran, Iran. In this study, five scenarios have been designed on the basis of different BMPs. It has been found that the scenario of permeable pavements has the lowest risk. The proposed model enables the decision makers to choose the best scenario with the minimum cost taking into account the risk associated with each scenario.

scholarly journals Decision support system for urban flood management

2005 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. J. Abebe ◽  
R. K. Price
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support System ◽  
Data Acquisition ◽  
Support System ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
Flood Warning ◽  
Forecast Models

This paper presents the development of a decision support system (DSS) for flood warning and instantiation of restoration activities in two urban areas, the Liguria Region in Italy and the Greater Athens catchment in Greece, with the potential of extension to other locations with similar flooding problems. The tool is designed to work at the centre of a set of meteorological and hydrologic/hydraulic forecast models together with telemetric data acquisition networks. The study reveals the complexity and uncertainty involved in managing flooding in the study areas. Issues about the validity and extended benefits of the system are also discussed.

Predicting reattendance at a high-risk breast cancer clinic

2015 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1441-1448 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah R. Ormseth ◽  
David K. Wellisch ◽  
Adam E. Aréchiga ◽  
Taylor L. Draper
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Depressive Symptomatology ◽  
High Risk Breast Cancer ◽  
High Risk Breast ◽  
Risk Breast Cancer ◽  
Cancer Clinic ◽  
High Risk Clinic

AbstractObjective:The research about follow-up patterns of women attending high-risk breast-cancer clinics is sparse. This study sought to profile daughters of breast-cancer patients who are likely to return versus those unlikely to return for follow-up care in a high-risk clinic.Method:Our investigation included 131 patients attending the UCLA Revlon Breast Center High Risk Clinic. Predictor variables included age, computed breast-cancer risk, participants' perceived personal risk, clinically significant depressive symptomatology (CES–D score ≥ 16), current level of anxiety (State–Trait Anxiety Inventory), and survival status of participants' mothers (survived or passed away from breast cancer).Results:A greater likelihood of reattendance was associated with older age (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.07, p = 0.004), computed breast-cancer risk (AOR = 1.10, p = 0.017), absence of depressive symptomatology (AOR = 0.25, p = 0.009), past psychiatric diagnosis (AOR = 3.14, p = 0.029), and maternal loss to breast cancer (AOR = 2.59, p = 0.034). Also, an interaction was found between mother's survival and perceived risk (p = 0.019), such that reattendance was associated with higher perceived risk among participants whose mothers survived (AOR = 1.04, p = 0.002), but not those whose mothers died (AOR = 0.99, p = 0.685). Furthermore, a nonlinear inverted “U” relationship was observed between state anxiety and reattendance (p = 0.037); participants with moderate anxiety were more likely to reattend than those with low or high anxiety levels.Significance of Results:Demographic, medical, and psychosocial factors were found to be independently associated with reattendance to a high-risk breast-cancer clinic. Explication of the profiles of women who may or may not reattend may serve to inform the development and implementation of interventions to increase the likelihood of follow-up care.

scholarly journals How Fraud Risk Decomposition Affects Auditors' Fraud Risk Assessments

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. P26-P32
Author(s):  
Chad A. Simon ◽  
Jason L. Smith ◽  
Mark F. Zimbelman
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Decomposition ◽  
Fraud Risk ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Auditing Standards ◽  
Fraud Risk Assessments

SUMMARY In this paper, we provide a practitioner summary of our paper “The Influence of Judgment Decomposition on Auditors' Fraud Risk Assessments: Some Trade-Offs” (Simon, Smith, and Zimbelman 2018). In that study, we investigate potential unintended consequences from current auditing guidance on risk assessments. Specifically, auditing standards recommend separate assessments of the likelihood and magnitude of risks (hereafter, LM decomposition) when auditors assess risk. Our study involved several experiments, including one with experienced auditors, where we found evidence that LM decomposition leads auditors to be less concerned about high-risk fraud schemes relative to auditors who make holistic risk assessments. Our other experiments involved non-auditing settings and replicated this finding while exploring potential explanations for it. After providing a summary of our study and its results, we offer concluding remarks on the potential implications of our findings.

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