scholarly journals Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease thresholds for statin initiation among people living with HIV in Thailand: A cost-effectiveness analysis

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. e0256926
Author(s):  
David C. Boettiger ◽  
Pairoj Chattranukulchai ◽  
Anchalee Avihingsanon ◽  
Romanee Chaiwarith ◽  
Suwimon Khusuwan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Quality Adjusted Life Year ◽  
People Living With Hiv ◽  
Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Risk Threshold ◽  
Life Years ◽  
Ascvd Risk ◽  
Living With Hiv ◽  
Quality Adjusted Life

Background People living with HIV (PLHIV) have an elevated risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) compared to their uninfected peers. Expanding statin use may help alleviate this burden. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of reducing the recommend statin initiation threshold for primary ASCVD prevention among PLHIV in Thailand. Methods Our decision analytic microsimulation model randomly selected (with replacement) individuals from the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (data collected between 1/January/2013 and 1/September/2019). Direct medical costs and quality-adjusted life-years were assigned in annual cycles over a lifetime horizon and discounted at 3% per year. We assumed the Thai healthcare sector perspective. The study population included PLHIV aged 35–75 years, without ASCVD, and receiving antiretroviral therapy. Statin initiation thresholds evaluated were 10-year ASCVD risk ≥10% (control), ≥7.5% and ≥5%. Results A statin initiation threshold of ASCVD risk ≥7.5% resulted in accumulation of 0.015 additional quality-adjusted life-years compared with an ASCVD risk threshold ≥10%, at an extra cost of 3,539 Baht ($US113), giving an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 239,000 Baht ($US7,670)/quality-adjusted life-year gained. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio comparing ASCVD risk ≥5% to ≥7.5% was 349,000 Baht ($US11,200)/quality-adjusted life-year gained. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of 160,000 Baht ($US5,135)/quality-adjusted life-year gained, a 30.8% reduction in the average cost of low/moderate statin therapy led to the ASCVD risk threshold ≥7.5% becoming cost-effective compared with current practice. Conclusions Reducing the recommended 10-year ASCVD risk threshold for statin initiation among PLHIV in Thailand would not currently be cost-effective. However, a lower threshold could become cost-effective with greater preference for cheaper statins.

scholarly journals Cost-Effectiveness Evaluation of Etoricoxib versus Celecoxib and Nonselective NSAIDs in the Treatment of Ankylosing Spondylitis in Norway

2011 ◽  
Vol 2011 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeroen P. Jansen ◽  
Stephanie D. Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Ankylosing Spondylitis ◽  
Time Horizon ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Quality Adjusted Life Year ◽  
Quality Adjusted Life Years ◽  
Life Years ◽  
Cost Effective Treatment ◽  
Ceiling Ratio ◽  
Quality Adjusted Life

Objectives. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of etoricoxib (90 mg) relative to celecoxib (200/400 mg), and the nonselective NSAIDs naproxen (1000 mg) and diclofenac (150 mg) in the initial treatment of ankylosing spondylitis in Norway.Methods. A previously developed Markov state-transition model was used to estimate costs and benefits associated with initiating treatment with the different competing NSAIDs. Efficacy, gastrointestinal and cardiovascular safety, and resource use data were obtained from the literature. Data from different studies were synthesized and translated into direct costs and quality adjusted life years by means of a Bayesian comprehensive decision modeling approach.Results. Over a 30-year time horizon, etoricoxib is associated with about 0.4 more quality adjusted life years than the other interventions. At 1 year, naproxen is the most cost-saving strategy. However, etoricoxib is cost and quality adjusted life year saving relative to celecoxib, as well as diclofenac and naproxen after 5 years of follow-up. For a willingness-to-pay ceiling ratio of 200,000 Norwegian krones per quality adjusted life year, there is a >95% probability that etoricoxib is the most-cost-effective treatment when a time horizon of 5 or more years is considered.Conclusions. Etoricoxib is the most cost-effective NSAID for initiating treatment of ankylosing spondylitis in Norway.

scholarly journals Cost-Effectiveness of Tafamidis Therapy for Transthyretin Amyloid Cardiomyopathy

Circulation ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 141 (15) ◽  
pp. 1214-1224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dhruv S. Kazi ◽  
Brandon K. Bellows ◽  
Suzanne J. Baron ◽  
Changyu Shen ◽  
David J. Cohen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Incremental Cost ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
The United States ◽  
Quality Adjusted Life Year ◽  
Life Years ◽  
The Us ◽  
Amyloid Cardiomyopathy ◽  
Quality Adjusted Life

Background: In patients with transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy, tafamidis reduces all-cause mortality and cardiovascular hospitalizations and slows decline in quality of life compared with placebo. In May 2019, tafamidis received expedited approval from the US Food and Drug Administration as a breakthrough drug for a rare disease. However, at $225 000 per year, it is the most expensive cardiovascular drug ever launched in the United States, and its long-term cost-effectiveness and budget impact are uncertain. We therefore aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of tafamidis and its potential effect on US health care spending. Methods: We developed a Markov model of patients with wild-type or variant transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy and heart failure (mean age, 74.5 years) using inputs from the ATTR-ACT trial (Transthyretin Amyloidosis Cardiomyopathy Clinical Trial), published literature, US Food and Drug Administration review documents, healthcare claims, and national survey data. We compared no disease–specific treatment (“usual care”) with tafamidis therapy. The model reproduced 30-month survival, quality of life, and cardiovascular hospitalization rates observed in ATTR-ACT; future projections used a parametric survival model in the control arm, with constant hazards reduction in the tafamidis arm. We discounted future costs and quality-adjusted life-years by 3% annually and examined key parameter uncertainty using deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The main outcomes were lifetime incremental cost-effectiveness ratio and annual budget impact, assessed from the US healthcare sector perspective. This study was independent of the ATTR-ACT trial sponsor. Results: Compared with usual care, tafamidis was projected to add 1.29 (95% uncertainty interval, 0.47–1.75) quality-adjusted life-years at an incremental cost of $1 135 000 (872 000–1 377 000), resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $880 000 (697 000–1 564 000) per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Assuming a threshold of $100 000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained and current drug price, tafamidis was cost-effective in 0% of 10 000 probabilistic simulations. A 92.6% price reduction from $225 000 to $16 563 would be necessary to make tafamidis cost-effective at $100 000/quality-adjusted life-year. Results were sensitive to assumptions related to long-term effectiveness of tafamidis. Treating all eligible patients with transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy in the United States with tafamidis (n=120 000) was estimated to increase annual healthcare spending by $32.3 billion. Conclusions: Treatment with tafamidis is projected to produce substantial clinical benefit but would greatly exceed conventional cost-effectiveness thresholds at the current US list price. On the basis of recent US experience with high-cost cardiovascular medications, access to and uptake of this effective therapy may be limited unless there is a large reduction in drug costs.

Cost–effectiveness analysis of ribociclib plus fulvestrant for hormone receptor-positive/human EGF receptor 2-negative breast cancer

Immunotherapy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Jiang ◽  
Zhichao He ◽  
Tiantian Zhang ◽  
Chongchong Guo ◽  
Jianli Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Hormone Receptor ◽  
Egf Receptor ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Quality Adjusted Life Year ◽  
Cost Effectiveness Ratio ◽  
Hormone Receptor Positive ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Quality Adjusted Life

Aim: To evaluate the cost–effectiveness of ribociclib plus fulvestrant versus fulvestrant in hormone receptor-positive/human EGF receptor 2-negative advanced breast cancer. Materials & methods: A three-state Markov model was developed to evaluate the costs and effectiveness over 10 years. Direct costs and utility values were obtained from previously published studies. We calculated incremental cost–effectiveness ratio to evaluate the cost–effectiveness at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $150,000 per additional quality-adjusted life year. Results: The incremental cost–effectiveness ratio was $1,073,526 per quality-adjusted life year of ribociclib plus fulvestrant versus fulvestrant. Conclusions: Ribociclib plus fulvestrant is not cost-effective versus fulvestrant in the treatment of advanced hormone receptor-positive/human EGF receptor 2-negative breast cancer. When ribociclib is at 10% of the full price, ribociclib plus fulvestrant could be cost-effective.

scholarly journals A one-year cost–utility analysis of REBOA versus RTACC for non-compressible torso haemorrhage

Trauma ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maxwell S Renna ◽  
Cristiano van Zeller ◽  
Farah Abu-Hijleh ◽  
Cherlyn Tong ◽  
Jasmine Gambini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Quality Adjusted Life Year ◽  
Cost Utility ◽  
Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio ◽  
Cost Utility Analysis ◽  
Utility Analysis ◽  
Cost Effectiveness Ratio ◽  
One Year ◽  
Quality Adjusted Life

Introduction Major trauma is a leading cause of death and disability in young adults, especially from massive non-compressible torso haemorrhage. The standard technique to control distal haemorrhage and maximise central perfusion is resuscitative thoracotomy with aortic cross-clamping (RTACC). More recently, the minimally invasive technique of resuscitative endovascular balloon occlusion of the aorta (REBOA) has been developed to similarly limit distal haemorrhage without the morbidity of thoracotomy; cost–utility studies on this intervention, however, are still lacking. The aim of this study was to perform a one-year cost–utility analysis of REBOA as an intervention for patients with major traumatic non-compressible abdominal haemorrhage, compared to RTACC within the U.K.’s National Health Service. Methods A retrospective analysis of the outcomes following REBOA and RTACC was conducted based on the published literature of survival and complication rates after intervention. Utility was obtained from studies that used the EQ-5D index and from self-conducted surveys. Costs were calculated using 2016/2017 National Health Service tariff data and supplemented from further literature. A cost–utility analysis was then conducted. Results A total of 12 studies for REBOA and 20 studies for RTACC were included. The mean injury severity scores for RTACC and REBOA were 34 and 39, and mean probability of death was 9.7 and 54%, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of REBOA when compared to RTACC was £44,617.44 per quality-adjusted life year. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, by exceeding the National Institute for Health and Clinical Effectiveness’s willingness-to-pay threshold of £30,000/quality-adjusted life year, suggests that this intervention is not cost-effective in comparison to RTACC. However, REBOA yielded a 157% improvement in utility with a comparatively small cost increase of 31.5%. Conclusion Although REBOA has not been found to be cost-effective when compared to RTACC, ultimately, clinical experience and expertise should be the main factor in driving the decision over which intervention to prioritise in the emergency context.

Lenvatinib versus sorafenib for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma: a cost–effectiveness analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 553-562
Author(s):  
Hongfu Cai ◽  
Longfeng Zhang ◽  
Na Li ◽  
Bin Zheng ◽  
Maobai Liu
Keyword(s):  
Hepatocellular Carcinoma ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Quality Adjusted Life Years ◽  
Cost Effectiveness Ratio ◽  
Phase 3 ◽  
Sorafenib Treatment ◽  
Life Years ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Quality Adjusted Life

Aim: To investigate the cost–effectiveness of lenvatinib and sorafenib in the treatment of patients with nonresected hepatocellular carcinoma in China. Materials & methods: Markov model was used to simulate the direct medical cost and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. Clinical data were derived from the Phase 3 randomized clinical trial in a Chinese population. Results: Sorafenib treatment resulted in 1.794 QALYs at a cost of $43,780.73. Lenvatinib treatment resulted in 2.916 QALYs for patients weighing <60 and ≥60 kg at a cost of $57,049.43 and $75,900.36, The incremental cost–effectiveness ratio to the sorafenib treatment group was $11,825.94/QALY and $28,627.12/QALY, respectively. Conclusion: According to WHO’s triple GDP per capita, the use of lenvatinib by providing drugs is a cost-effective strategy.

Cost-effectiveness of hydrotherapy versus land-based therapy in patients with musculoskeletal disorders in Singapore

2018 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 391-398
Author(s):  
Monica Teng ◽  
Hui Jun Zhou ◽  
Liang Lin ◽  
Pang Hung Lim ◽  
Doreen Yeo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Musculoskeletal Disorders ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Target Population ◽  
Quality Adjusted Life Year ◽  
Decision Analytic Model ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Total Knee ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Quality Adjusted Life

Abstract Background The study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of hydrotherapy versus land-based therapy in patients with musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) in Singapore. Methods A decision-analytic model was constructed to compare the cost-effectiveness of hydrotherapy to land-based therapy over 3 months from societal perspective. Target population comprised patients with low back pain (LBP), osteoarthritis (OA), rheumatoid arthritis (RA), total hip replacement (THR) and total knee replacement (TKR). Subgroup analyses were carried out to determine the cost-effectiveness of hydrotherapy in individual MSDs. Relative treatment effects were obtained through a systematic review of published data. Results Compared to land-based therapy, hydrotherapy was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of SGD 27 471 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, which was below the willingness-to-pay threshold of SGD 70 000 per QALY (one gross domestic product per capita in Singapore in 2015). For the respective MSDs, hydrotherapy were dominant (more effective and less costly) in THR and TKR, cost-effective for LBP and RA, and not cost-effective for OA. Treatment adherence and cost of hydrotherapy were key drivers to the ICER values. Conclusions Hydrotherapy was a cost-effective rehabilitation compared to land-based therapy for a population with MSDs in Singapore. However, the benefit of hydrotherapy was not observed in patients with OA.

scholarly journals Comparative clinical effects and cost–effectiveness of maximum androgen blockade, docetaxel with androgen deprivation therapy and ADT alone for the treatment of mHSPC in China

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 865-877 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maobai Liu ◽  
Shuli Qu ◽  
Yanjun Liu ◽  
Xingxing Yao ◽  
Wei Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Incremental Cost ◽  
Androgen Deprivation Therapy ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Quality Adjusted Life Year ◽  
Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio ◽  
Clinical Effects ◽  
Cost Effectiveness Ratio ◽  
Quality Adjusted Life ◽  
Androgen Blockade

Aim: To compare the clinical effects and cost–effectiveness of maximum androgen blockade (MAB), docetaxel to androgen deprivation therapy (Doc-ADT) and ADT alone for the treatment of patients with metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer in China. Methods: A network meta-analysis and a Markov model were adopted for effectiveness and economic evaluation. Results: The hazard ratios of overall survival and progression-free survival were 0.782 and 0.628 for Doc-ADT versus ADT alone; 0.897 and 0.824 for MAB versus ADT alone. Doc-ADT was cost-effective compared with MAB and ADT alone, with an incremental cost–effectiveness ratio of CNY 96,848 and CNY 67,758 per quality-adjusted life year, respectively. MAB was cost-effective compared with ADT alone, with an incremental cost–effectiveness ratio of CNY 137,487 per quality-adjusted life year. Conclusion: Doc-ADT is likely the optimal option from the perspective of both clinical outcomes and economic considerations.

scholarly journals Contextualization of cost-effectiveness evidence from literature for 382 health interventions for the Ethiopian essential health services package revision

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alemayehu Hailu ◽  
Getachew Teshome Eregata ◽  
Amanuel Yigezu ◽  
Melanie Y. Bertram ◽  
Kjell Arne Johansson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Health Services ◽  
Evidence Synthesis ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Evaluation Study ◽  
Quality Adjusted Life Year ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Hepatitis B Vaccination ◽  
Economic Evaluations ◽  
Life Years

Abstract Background Cost-effectiveness of interventions was a criterion decided to guide priority setting in the latest revision of Ethiopia’s essential health services package (EHSP) in 2019. However, conducting an economic evaluation study for a broad set of health interventions simultaneously is challenging in terms of cost, timeliness, input data demanded, and analytic competency. Therefore, this study aimed to synthesize and contextualize cost-effectiveness evidence for the Ethiopian EHSP interventions from the literature. Methods The evidence synthesis was conducted in five key steps: search, screen, evaluate, extract, and contextualize. We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE research databases for peer-reviewed published articles to identify average cost-effectiveness ratios (ACERs). Only studies reporting cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY), quality-adjusted life year (QALY), or life years gained (LYG) were included. All the articles were evaluated using the Drummond checklist for quality, and those with a score of at least 7 out of 10 were included. Information on cost, effectiveness, and ACER was extracted. All the ACERs were converted into 2019 US dollars using appropriate exchange rates and the GDP deflator. Results In this study, we synthesized ACERs for 382 interventions from seven major program areas, ranging from US$3 per DALY averted (for the provision of hepatitis B vaccination at birth) to US$242,880 per DALY averted (for late-stage liver cancer treatment). Overall, 56% of the interventions have an ACER of less than US$1000 per DALY, and 80% of the interventions have an ACER of less than US$10,000 per DALY. Conclusion We conclude that it is possible to identify relevant economic evaluations using evidence from the literature, even if transferability remains a challenge. The present study identified several cost-effective candidate interventions that could, if scaled up, substantially reduce Ethiopia’s disease burden.

scholarly journals Interventions to reduce the risk of surgically transmitted Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease: a cost-effective modelling review

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (11) ◽  
pp. 1-150 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matt Stevenson ◽  
Lesley Uttley ◽  
Jeremy E Oakley ◽  
Christopher Carroll ◽  
Stephen E Chick ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Health Technology Assessment ◽  
Technology Assessment ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Health Technology ◽  
Quality Adjusted Life Year ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
Jakob Disease ◽  
Single Use ◽  
Quality Adjusted Life

Background Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease is a fatal neurological disease caused by abnormal infectious proteins called prions. Prions that are present on surgical instruments cannot be completely deactivated; therefore, patients who are subsequently operated on using these instruments may become infected. This can result in surgically transmitted Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease. Objective To update literature reviews, consultation with experts and economic modelling published in 2006, and to provide the cost-effectiveness of strategies to reduce the risk of surgically transmitted Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease. Methods Eight systematic reviews were undertaken for clinical parameters. One review of cost-effectiveness was undertaken. Electronic databases including MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched from 2005 to 2017. Expert elicitation sessions were undertaken. An advisory committee, convened by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence to produce guidance, provided an additional source of information. A mathematical model was updated focusing on brain and posterior eye surgery and neuroendoscopy. The model simulated both patients and instrument sets. Assuming that there were potentially 15 cases of surgically transmitted Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease between 2005 and 2018, approximate Bayesian computation was used to obtain samples from the posterior distribution of the model parameters to generate results. Heuristics were used to improve computational efficiency. The modelling conformed to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence reference case. The strategies evaluated included neither keeping instruments moist nor prohibiting set migration; ensuring that instruments were kept moist; prohibiting instrument migration between sets; and employing single-use instruments. Threshold analyses were undertaken to establish prices at which single-use sets or completely effective decontamination solutions would be cost-effective. Results A total of 169 papers were identified for the clinical review. The evidence from published literature was not deemed sufficiently strong to take precedence over the distributions obtained from expert elicitation. Forty-eight papers were identified in the review of cost-effectiveness. The previous modelling structure was revised to add the possibility of misclassifying surgically transmitted Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease as another neurodegenerative disease, and assuming that all patients were susceptible to infection. Keeping instruments moist was estimated to reduce the risk of surgically transmitted Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease cases and associated costs. Based on probabilistic sensitivity analyses, keeping instruments moist was estimated to on average result in 2.36 (range 0–47) surgically transmitted Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease cases (across England) caused by infection occurring between 2019 and 2023. Prohibiting set migration or employing single-use instruments reduced the estimated risk of surgically transmitted Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease cases further, but at considerable cost. The estimated costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained of these strategies in addition to keeping instruments moist were in excess of £1M. It was estimated that single-use instrument sets (currently £350–500) or completely effective cleaning solutions would need to cost approximately £12 per patient to be cost-effective using a £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained value. Limitations As no direct published evidence to implicate surgery as a cause of Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease has been found since 2005, the estimations of potential cases from elicitation are still speculative. A particular source of uncertainty was in the number of potential surgically transmitted Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease cases that may have occurred between 2005 and 2018. Conclusions Keeping instruments moist is estimated to reduce the risk of surgically transmitted Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease cases and associated costs. Further surgical management strategies can reduce the risks of surgically transmitted Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease but have considerable associated costs. Study registration This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42017071807. Funding This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 11. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

scholarly journals Interventions based on early intensive applied behaviour analysis for autistic children: a systematic review and cost-effectiveness analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (35) ◽  
pp. 1-306
Author(s):  
Mark Rodgers ◽  
David Marshall ◽  
Mark Simmonds ◽  
Ann Le Couteur ◽  
Mousumi Biswas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Quality Adjusted Life Year ◽  
Mean Difference ◽  
Autistic Children ◽  
Behaviour Analysis ◽  
Applied Behaviour Analysis ◽  
Quality Adjusted Life

Background Early intensive applied behaviour analysis-based interventions are intensive interventions for autistic children that are often delivered on a one-to-one basis for 20–50 hours per week. Objectives To evaluate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of early intensive applied behaviour analysis-based interventions for autistic children, based on current evidence. Methods A systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis were conducted to evaluate the clinical effectiveness of an early intensive applied behaviour analysis-based intervention for autistic children. An economic analysis included a review of existing analyses and the development of a new model. Results Twenty studies were included in the clinical review. Individual participant data were retrieved from 15 of these studies. Results favoured the interventions when assessing adaptive behaviour after 2 years compared with treatment as usual/eclectic interventions (mean difference 7.00, 95% confidence interval 1.95 to 12.06). In analyses of cognitive ability (intelligence quotient), results favoured the interventions by approximately 10 points after 1 year (mean difference 9.16, 95% confidence interval 4.38 to 13.93) and 2 years (mean difference 14.13, 95% confidence interval 9.16 to 19.10). Evidence for other outcomes was limited and meta-analyses were generally inconclusive. There was no evidence that the effect of the interventions varied with characteristics of the children, but data were limited. Adopting a £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year threshold, the results of the cost-effectiveness analysis indicate that early intensive applied behaviour analysis-based interventions would need to generate larger benefits or cost savings to be cost-effective. Adopting a public sector perspective and making pessimistic assumptions about long-term effects, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for early intensive applied behaviour analysis-based therapy compared with treatment as usual is £189,122 per quality-adjusted life-year. When optimistic assumptions are made, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is £46,768 per quality-adjusted life-year. Scenario analyses indicated that these interventions can potentially be cost-effective if long-term improvements persist into adulthood, or if they have significant impact on educational placement. Care should be taken when interpreting these scenarios owing to the limited data. Limitations All included studies were at risk of bias, there was substantial heterogeneity and effects varied considerably across studies. The effect of intervention on autism symptom severity, language development and school placement remains uncertain because of the limited data. The long-term effects are unclear owing to a lack of follow-up data. Conclusions This review found limited evidence that early intensive applied behaviour analysis-based interventions may improve cognitive ability and adaptive behaviour, but the long-term impact of the interventions remains unknown. The economic analysis is constrained by the limited effectiveness evidence, but suggests that these interventions are unlikely to be cost-effective unless clear long-term benefits, or a substantial change in which schools children attend, can be identified. Future work Further studies into the effectiveness of early intensive applied behaviour analysis-based interventions may be warranted if they include well-defined, alternative interventions as comparators and collect relevant outcomes. Consideration should be given to future studies that not only address whether or not early intensive applied behaviour analysis-based interventions are clinically effective, but also aim to identify which components of early intensive applied behaviour analysis-based interventions might drive effectiveness. Study registration This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42017068303. Funding This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 35. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

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