scholarly journals Analysis and Forecast Based on the Kinetic Equation for Changing the Numerical Composition of Living Systems

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 8-18
Author(s):  
Alexander Alexandrovich Victorov ◽  
Viacheslav Alexandrovich Kholodnov
Keyword(s):  
Kinetic Equation ◽  
Kinetic Theory ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Biological Object ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Living Systems ◽  
Subsequent Decrease ◽  
Final Population ◽  
Theory Of Aging

The possibility of applying the kinetic theory of aging of biological species published earlier by the authors of this work to assess and predict changes in the number of specific populations is evaluated. The populations of the USA, China and Russia, as well as the population of mice observed in the experiment "mouse paradise" of the American scientist John Calhoun are considered. To this end, a historically consistent analysis of the main previously proposed multi-scenario mathematical models describing demographic data and predicting the dynamics of the population was performed. The results of these models show a decrease in the population growth rate, a tendency toward a limit with an increase in historical time, the achievement of such a limit in some developed countries with a relatively high level of social security, a subsequent decrease in the number and further uncertainty of the final population outlook in the distant future. In addition, these models made it possible to establish that the observed population growth in developed countries is unambiguously accompanied by its aging - a relative predominant increase in the number of elderly people compared to the number of the younger generation (people are aging, the population of countries is aging). In this work, the assumption was made and confirmed that the dynamics of the aging of the population of the countries of the World corresponds to the dynamics of aging of a person of one generation and is mathematically described by the differential equation of the kinetic theory of aging of living systems of the same type with close values of the parameters. The biophysical meaning of the parameters of the kinetic equation reflects G. Selye's concept of the determining role of stress in human life and populations. An analysis of the changes in the numbers of the considered populations of humans and mice at various stages of their development is qualitatively commented on from the standpoint of comparative tension according to G. Selye. To assess the degree of aging of a biological object of one population in kinetic theory, the probability of death during life is selected as an indicator of aging. In this work, the probability of reaching the maximum population size was chosen as an indicator of the aging of a biological object of various populations. The published literature predicts various options for changing the population after reaching a maximum - maintaining the reached maximum level and decreasing to a certain limit, less than the maximum achieved. In this paper, based on an analysis of its results and an analogy with the complete degeneration of mice in the “mouse paradise” experiment, a conclusion is drawn about a hypothetically possible third variant of the limiting decrease in the population - its complete degeneration.

scholarly journals A Model of Population Change Based on The Kinetic Theory of Aging of Living Systems.

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Keyword(s):  
Kinetic Theory ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Biological Object ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Living Systems ◽  
Subsequent Decrease ◽  
Final Population ◽  
Theory Of Aging

Abstract The possibility of applying the kinetic theory of aging of biological species published earlier by the authors of this work to assess and predict changes in the number of specific populations is evaluated. The populations of the USA, China and Russia, as well as the population of mice observed in the experiment "mouse paradise" of the American scientist John Calhoun are considered. To this end, a historically consistent analysis of the main previously proposed multi-scenario mathematical models describing demographic data and predicting the dynamics of the population was performed. The results of these models show a decrease in the population growth rate, a tendency toward a limit with an increase in historical time, the achievement of such a limit in some developed countries with a relatively high level of social security, a subsequent decrease in the number and further uncertainty of the final population outlook in the distant future. In addition, these models made it possible to establish that the observed population growth in developed countries is unambiguously accompanied by its aging - a relative predominant increase in the number of elderly people compared to the number of the younger generation (people are aging, the population of countries is aging). In this work, the assumption was made and confirmed that the dynamics of the aging of the population of the countries of the World corresponds to the dynamics of aging of a person of one generation and is mathematically described by the differential equation of the kinetic theory of aging of living systems of the same type with close values of the parameters. The biophysical meaning of the parameters of the kinetic equation reflects G. Selye's concept of the determining role of stress in human life and populations. An analysis of the changes in the numbers of the considered populations of humans and mice at various stages of their development is qualitatively commented on from the standpoint of comparative tension according to G. Selye. To assess the degree of aging of a biological object of one population in kinetic theory, the probability of death during life is selected as an indicator of aging. In this work, the probability of reaching the maximum population size was chosen as an indicator of the aging of a biological object of various populations. The published literature predicts various options for changing the population after reaching a maximum - maintaining the reached maximum level and decreasing to a certain limit, less than the maximum achieved. In this paper, based on an analysis of its results and an analogy with the complete degeneration of mice in the “mouse paradise” experiment, a conclusion is drawn about a hypothetically possible third variant of the limiting decrease in the population - its complete degeneration.

Forecasting environmental health risks based on the kinetic theory of aging of living systems

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 141-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. A. Viktorov ◽  
V. D. Gladkikh ◽  
A. I. Ksenofontov ◽  
E. E. Morozova
Keyword(s):  
Kinetic Theory ◽  
Environmental Health ◽  
Health Risks ◽  
Living Systems ◽  
Environmental Health Risks ◽  
Theory Of Aging

Population Change, Modernization and Welfare. By Joseph Spengler. Prentice-Hall Inc., Englewood Cliffs, N.J. 1974.

1977 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 220-222
Author(s):  
Zeba A. Sathar
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Population Control ◽  
Stable Condition ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Wide Field ◽  
Wide Scale ◽  
Socio Economic Variables ◽  
Almost All

The book covers a wide field, touching on almost all aspects of popula¬tion change on a world-wide scale. It discusses, using world and country data, the relationships between demographic and socio-economic variables, and elaborates on" their relative importance in the determination of population problems which confront the world as a whole and nations individually. Policies designed to alleviate these problems are discussed with an emphasis on those related to population control. The first chapter is entitled "Population Growth: Past and Prospective" and reviews the various parameters associated with population change in the past and in the future. It touches upon the concept of a stable population in order to show the elements which cause a population to change (i.e. remove it from its stable condition). The main elements of change, population growth, migration, mortality and natality are discussed individually. The chapter is concluded by a description of the main differences in these elements and other socio-economic conditions as they exist in the less-developed and developed countries.

scholarly journals THE BASIC FRAMEWORK FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE GREEN ECONOMY MODEL IN THE BUSINESS PROCESSES OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (167) ◽  
pp. 28-33
Author(s):  
S. Burlutska ◽  
D. Krasovsky
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Management System ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Green Economy ◽  
Economic Science ◽  
Growth Strategies ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
The World

At present, the totality of global environmental and economic threats and challenges has put the world economic science in front of the need to find a new way of developing the world economy. The new model of economic growth must satisfy two main criteria: firstly, to find a qualitatively new direction of growth, and secondly, to ensure the preservation and improvement of the quality of the environment for human life, that is, to ensure new economic growth without negative consequences for the environment. Many modern scientists see the solution of these problems in a relatively new direction in the economy, which has existed for just over 30 years - the "green" economy. Their opinion is shared by leading politicians and civil servants of the world's economic powers. The directions of the "green" economy system are considered: introduction of renewable energy sources; improvement of the waste management system; improvement of the water resources management system; development of "clean" transport; organic farming in agriculture; energy efficiency in housing and communal services; conservation and effective management of ecosystems. As a result of the analysis, key ones were identified directions in which the green economy is moving, systematized basic support tools that divided into price and non-price, in more detail characterized by price with the separation of financial tools that experts focus on international organizations for sustainable development. The main elements of the state are defined green growth strategies and analyzed the situation harmonization of the influence of developed countries on the development of "green" economy. An understanding of the essence and description of the goals of "green" technologies is proposed, which implies work not with the consequences, but with the causes of environmental problems. Considered the "green" experience of developed countries and global companies. In conclusion, the author emphasizes that the concept of a "green" economy is an innovative development project, but to achieve sustainability it is necessary to use the experience of other companies. One of the main problems was noticed, this is the use of pseudo environmental friendliness by companies for their own commercial purposes.

scholarly journals A novel conceptual framework to identify the mineral laws in Iran: A real-case application of fuzzy TOPSIS method

2021 ◽  
pp. 163-174
Author(s):  
Mehdi Ghazanfari ◽  
Morteza Hashempour
Keyword(s):  
Conceptual Framework ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Fuzzy Topsis ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Abandoned Mines ◽  
Topsis Method ◽  
Mineral Industry ◽  
Environmental Laws ◽  
Solution Methods ◽  
Conflict Solution

Due to the important environmental effects on human life and the conflict between the mining process and environmental factors, the enactment of protectionist environmental laws in the mineral industry has received extensive attention especially in countries with high mining potential. In this regard, using an extended fuzzy TOPSIS method, this study develops a novel conceptual framework to identify the key protection laws in Iran by considering the mineral successful laws and regulations in mineral-developed countries such as Australia, Chile, India, Turkey, Canada, South Africa, and China. This helps to apply the experiences of the abovementioned countries in resolving similar conflicts in Iran’s mineral industry. The key protection laws are selected based on their national and international environmental treaties, mines’ environmental protection laws, conflict solution methods, social responsibilities in mining activity, and laws for the abandoned mines. The proposed framework demonstrates that Iran’s mineral laws require revision and more transparency to avoid ambiguity and conflict with mineral property laws and governmental rights.

scholarly journals Positive impact of international companies on development of knowledge economy

2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 81-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maxim Polyakov
Keyword(s):  
Development Strategy ◽  
Knowledge Economy ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Basic Program ◽  
Adverse Impact ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
The World ◽  
International Companies

In recent years, all economically developed countries of the world experience formation of knowledge economy as the highest stage of postindustrial economy development. International companies, basing their activity on accumulation of human capital according to the principles of innovativeness, scientific nature, continuity and progressiveness, play an important role in activation of this process. Owing to global nature of their activity it influences all spheres of human life in the world, improving it, as well as having an adverse impact (enhancement of poverty in some regions of the word, environment pollution, etc.). Achievement of these conditions of sustainable economic growth is possible just by the way of prevention of the adverse impact, which, among other things, depends on the active social position of the management of international companies. Therefore this paper is aimed at identification of priority focuses of socially responsible activity of international companies. This goal was achieved through generalization of basic program initiatives of the activity of three companies, leading in innovations (Apple, Samsung and IBM). Adoption of the above-mentioned initiatives by other companies of the world as guides while developing their own development strategy has to facilitate the growth of positive effects from enhancement of knowledge economy in the world.

scholarly journals The Nigerian population: A treasure for national development or an unsurmountable national challenge

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 136-142
Author(s):  
Vitalis Jafla Pontianus ◽  
Oruonye E.D.
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
National Development ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Resource Scarcity ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
High Population ◽  
Major Player ◽  
The World

Nigeria is the most populous black nation in the world. It is equally one of the Less Developed Countries (LDCs) with very high population. Population growth is a very important element and a challenge in the development process in LDCs. The population of Nigeria is expected to continue to grow up to 239 million by 2025 and 440 million by 2050, thereby ranking it to 4th position among countries of the World with high population. This without doubt will place Nigeria in a position of major player in the global system, and more importantly in the African region. It is against this background that this study examines Nigeria’s population composition by poising the following questions; will Nigeria’s present and future population structure be a benefit or a burden? How can Nigeria’s relative share of working-age composition (15- 64) and dependents (under 15 and 65 and over) contribute to long term economic growth and development of the country? The findings of the study reveals that population growth is a critical factor in the development of any economy, providing workforce for production of goods and services to boost economic development and a critical determinant of the potentials of a country’s investment. The study findings also show that continuous population growth militates against economic growth through inducement of poverty, falling medical care/services and environmental degradation, worsen resource scarcity in areas where a large proportion of the population already relies on natural resource-based livelihoods. The study argued that population increase is not a problem in itself to any nation, and that there are some impeding factors associated with population growth such as corruption, inadequate planning, inappropriate implementation of development plans, poor budget/implementation and complacency in developing human capital. These are issues that the Nigerian state since independence have continued to battle with which has invariably made it a seemingly failed state. The study concludes that how much any country can benefit from its population size is dependent on the quality of human capital. Based on the findings, the study recommends economic diversification, government empowerment of Small and Medium scale Enterprises, paying attention to human capital development and target-oriented education.

Advances in nanofluidics for water purification and filtration: molecular dynamics (MD) perspective

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Majid Shahbabaei ◽  
Daejoong Kim
Keyword(s):  
Molecular Dynamics ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Environmental Pollution ◽  
Water Purification ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Life Quality ◽  
Water Crisis

Worldwide industrialization and population growth cause dramatic environmental pollution that is led to a water crisis. Lowering the human life quality and wasting annually abundant money worldwide are the consequences...

Long-term evolution of directional spectra of wind waves modelled by DNS and kinetic equations, and comparison with airborne measurements

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei Annenkov ◽  
Victor Shrira ◽  
Leonel Romero ◽  
Ken Melville
Keyword(s):  
Angular Distribution ◽  
Kinetic Equation ◽  
Kinetic Theory ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Kinetic Equations ◽  
Spectral Peak ◽  
Angular Width ◽  
Angular Structure ◽  
Airborne Measurements ◽  
Steady Growth

<p>We consider the evolution of directional spectra of waves generated by constant and changing wind, modelling it by direct numerical simulation (DNS), based on the Zakharov equation. Results are compared with numerical simulations performed with the Hasselmann kinetic equation and the generalised kinetic equation, and with airborne measurements of waves generated by offshore wind, collected during the GOTEX experiment off the coast of Mexico. Modelling is performed with wind measured during the experiment, and the initial conditions are taken as the observed spectrum at the moment when wind waves prevail over swell after the initial part of the evolution.</p><p>Directional spreading is characterised by the second moment of the normalised angular distribution function, taken at selected wavenumbers relative to the spectral peak. We show that for scales longer than the spectral peak the angular spread predicted by the DNS is close to that predicted by both kinetic equations, but it underestimates the corresponding measured value, apparently due to the presence of swell. For the spectral peak and shorter waves, the DNS shows good agreement with the data. A notable feature is the steady growth of angular width at the spectral peak with time/fetch, in contrast to nearly constant width in the kinetic equations modelling. Dependence of angular width on wavenumber is shown to be much weaker than predicted by the kinetic equations. A more detailed consideration of the angular structure at the spectral peak at large fetches shows that the kinetic equations predict an angular distribution with a well-defined peak at the central angle, while the DNS reproduces the observed angular structure, with a flat peak over a range of angles.</p><p>In order to study in detail the differences between the predictions of the DNS and the kinetic equations modelling under idealised conditions, we also perform numerical simulations for the case of constant wind forcing. As in the previous case of forcing by real wind, the most striking difference between the kinetic equations and the DNS is the steady growth with time of angular width at the spectral peak, which is demonstrated by the DNS, but is not present in the modelling with the kinetic equations. We show that while the kinetic theory, both in the case of the Hasselmann equation and the generalised kinetic equation, predicts a relatively simple shape of the spectral peak, the DNS shows a more complicated structure, with a flat top and dependence of the peak position on angle. We discuss the approximations employed in the derivation of the kinetic theory and the possible causes of the found differences of directional structure.</p>

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