scholarly journals An Engineering Model of the COVID-19 Trajectory to Predict Success of Isolation Initiatives

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven King ◽  
Alberto Striolo
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Social Studies ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Optimal Solution ◽  
Engineering Model ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Successful Isolation ◽  
Societal Impacts ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Much media and societal attention is today focused on how to best control the spread of Covid-19. Every day brings us new data, and policymakers are implementing different strategies in different countries to manage the impact of Covid-19. To respond to the first ‘wave’ of infection, several countries, including the UK, opted for isolation/lockdown initiatives, with different degrees of rigour. Data showed that these initiatives have yield the expected results in terms of containing the rapid trajectory of the virus. When this manuscript was first prepared (April 2020), the affected societies were wondering when the isolation/lockdown initiatives should be lifted. While detailed epidemiologic, economic as well as social studies would be required to answer this question completely, we employ here a simple engineering model. Albeit simple, the model is capable of reproducing the main features of the data reported in the literature concerning the Covid-19 trajectory in different countries, including the increase in cases in countries following the initially successful isolation/lockdown initiatives. Keeping in mind the simplicity of the model, we attempt to draw some conclusions, which seem to suggest that a decrease in the number of infected individuals after the initiation of isolation/lockdown initiatives does not necessarily guarantee that the virus trajectory is under control. Within the limit of this model, it would appear that rigid isolation/lockdown initiatives for the medium term would lead to achieving the desired control over the spread of the virus. This observation seems consistent with the 2020 summer months, during which the Covid-19 trajectory seemed to be almost under control across most European countries. Consistent with the results from our simple model, winter 2020 data show that the virus trajectory was again on the rise. Because the optimal solution will achieve control over the spread of the virus while minimising negative societal impacts due to isolation/lockdown, which include but are not limited to economic and mental health aspects, the engineering model presented here is not sufficient to provide the desired answer. However, the model seems to suggest that to keep the Covid-19 trajectory under control, a series of short-to-medium term isolation measures should be put in place until one or more of the following scenarios is achieved: a cure has been developed and has become accessible to the population at large; a vaccine has been developed, tested, and distributed to large portions of the population; a sufficiently large portion of the population has developed resistance to the Covid-19 virus; or the virus itself has become less aggressive. It is somewhat remarkable that an engineering model, despite all its approximations, provides suggestions consistent with advanced epidemiologic models developed by several experts in the field. The model proposed here is however not expected to be able to capture the emergence of variants of the virus, which seem to be responsible for significant outbreaks, notably in India, in the spring 2021, it cannot describe the effectiveness of vaccine strategies, as it does not differentiate among different age groups within the population, nor it allows us to consider the duration of the immunity achieved after infection or vaccination.

scholarly journals An engineering model of the COVID-19 trajectory to predict the success of isolation initiatives

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven King ◽  
Alberto Striolo
Keyword(s):  
Social Studies ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Optimal Solution ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Engineering Model ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Successful Isolation ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Much media and societal attention is today focused on how to best control the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19). Every day brings us new data, and policy makers are implementing different strategies in different countries to manage the impact of COVID-19. To respond to the first ‘wave’ of infection, several countries, including the UK, opted for isolation/lockdown initiatives, with different degrees of rigour. Data showed that these initiatives have yielded the expected results in terms of containing the rapid trajectory of the virus. When this article was first prepared (April 2020), the affected societies were wondering when the isolation/lockdown initiatives should be lifted. While detailed epidemiological, economic as well as social studies would be required to answer this question completely, here we employ a simple engineering model. Albeit simple, the model is capable of reproducing the main features of the data reported in the literature concerning the COVID-19 trajectory in different countries, including the increase in cases in countries following the initially successful isolation/lockdown initiatives. Keeping in mind the simplicity of the model, we attempt to draw some conclusions, which seem to suggest that a decrease in the number of infected individuals after the initiation of isolation/lockdown initiatives does not necessarily guarantee that the virus trajectory is under control. Within the limit of this model, it would seem that rigid isolation/lockdown initiatives for the medium term would lead to achieving the desired control over the spread of the virus. This observation seems consistent with the 2020 summer months, during which the COVID-19 trajectory seemed to be almost under control across most European countries. Consistent with the results from our simple model, winter 2020 data show that the virus trajectory was again on the rise. Because the optimal solution will achieve control over the spread of the virus while minimising negative societal impacts due to isolation/lockdown, which include but are not limited to economic and mental health aspects, the engineering model presented here is not sufficient to provide the desired answer. However, the model seems to suggest that to keep the COVID-19 trajectory under control, a series of short-to-medium term isolation measures should be put in place until one or more of the following scenarios is achieved: a cure has been developed and has become accessible to the population at large; a vaccine has been developed, tested and distributed to large portions of the population; a sufficiently large portion of the population has developed resistance to the COVID-19 virus; or the virus itself has become less aggressive. It is somewhat remarkable that an engineering model, despite all its approximations, provides suggestions consistent with advanced epidemiological models developed by several experts in the field. The model proposed here is however not expected to be able to capture the emergence of variants of the virus, which seem to be responsible for significant outbreaks, notably in India, in the spring of 2021, it cannot describe the effectiveness of vaccine strategies, as it does not differentiate among different age groups within the population, nor does it allow us to consider the duration of the immunity achieved after infection or vaccination.

scholarly journals An Engineering Model of the COVID-19 Trajectory to Predict Success of Isolation Initiatives

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven King ◽  
Alberto Striolo
Keyword(s):  
Social Studies ◽  
Optimal Solution ◽  
Engineering Model ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
The Past ◽  
Successful Isolation ◽  
Societal Impacts ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Past Summer

Much media and societal attention is today focused on how to best control the spread of Covid-19. Every day brings us new data, and policymakers are implementing different strategies in different countries to manage the impact of Covid-19. To respond to the first wave of infection, several countries, including the UK, opted for isolation/lockdown initiatives, with different degrees of rigour. Data showed that these initiatives have yield the expected results in terms of containing the rapid trajectory of the virus. When this manuscript was first prepared, the affected societies were wondering when the isolation/lockdown initiatives should be lifted. While detailed epidemiologic, economic as well as social studies would be required to answer this question completely, we employ here a simple engineering model. Albeit simple, the model is capable of reproducing the main features of the data reported in the literature concerning the Covid-19 trajectory in different countries, including the increase in cases in countries following the initially successful isolation/lockdown initiatives. Keeping in mind the simplicity of the model, we attempt to draw some conclusions, which seem to suggest that a decrease in the number of infected individuals after the initiation of isolation/lockdown initiatives does not necessarily guarantee that the virus trajectory is under control. Within the limit of this model, it would appear that rigid isolation/lockdown initiatives for the medium term would lead to achieving the desired control over the spread of the virus. This observation seems consistent with the past summer months, during which the Covid-19 trajectory seemed to be almost under control across most European countries. However, recent data show that the virus trajectory is again on the rise. The latter is also consistent with the simple model proposed here. Because the optimal solution will achieve control over the spread of the virus while minimising negative societal impacts due to isolation/lockdown, which include but are not limited to economic and mental health aspects, the engineering model presented here is not sufficient to provide the desired answer. However, the model seems to suggest that to keep the Covid-19 trajectory under control, a series of short-to-medium term isolation measures should be put in place until one or more of the following scenarios is achieved: a cure has been developed and has become accessible to the population at large; a vaccine has been developed, tested, and distributed to large portions of the population; a sufficiently large portion of the population has developed resistance to the Covid-19 virus; or the virus itself has become less aggressive. It is somewhat remarkable that an engineering model, despite all its approximations, provides suggestions consistent with advanced epidemiologic models developed by several experts in the field.

scholarly journals Designing youth mental health services for the 21st century: examples from Australia, Ireland and the UK

2013 ◽  
Vol 202 (s54) ◽  
pp. s30-s35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick McGorry ◽  
Tony Bates ◽  
Max Birchwood
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Mental Health Services ◽  
Young People ◽  
Health Services ◽  
Mental Disorder ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Mental Healthcare ◽  
Population Group ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

SummaryDespite the evidence showing that young people aged 12-25 years have the highest incidence and prevalence of mental illness across the lifespan, and bear a disproportionate share of the burden of disease associated with mental disorder, their access to mental health services is the poorest of all age groups. A major factor contributing to this poor access is the current design of our mental healthcare system, which is manifestly inadequate for the unique developmental and cultural needs of our young people, if we are to reduce the impact of mental disorder on this most vulnerable population group, transformational change and service redesign is necessary. Here, we present three recent and rapidly evolving service structures from Australia, Ireland and the UK that have each worked within their respective healthcare contexts to reorient existing services to provide youth-specific, evidence-based mental healthcare that is both accessible and acceptable to young people.

Report1: Impact of Covid-19 on young people aged 13-24 in the UK- preliminary findings

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liat Levita ◽  
Jilly Gibson Miller ◽  
Todd K. Hartman ◽  
Jamie Murphy ◽  
Mark Shevlin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Young People ◽  
Emotional Regulation ◽  
Health Anxiety ◽  
Self Control ◽  
Social Risk ◽  
Need For Support ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Social Recovery ◽  
The Impact

COVID-19 has led to an unprecedented disruption of normal social relationships and activities, which are so important during the teen years and young adulthood, and to education and economic activity worldwide. The impact of this on young people’s mental health and future prospects may affect their need for support and services, and the speed of the nation’s social recovery afterwards. This study focused on the unique challenges facing young people at different points during adolescent development, which spans from the onset of puberty until the mid-twenties. Although this is an immensely challenging time and there is a potential risk for long term trauma, adolescence can be a period of opportunity, where the teenagers’ brain enjoys greater capacity for change. Hence, the focus on young people is key for designing age-specific interventions and public policies, which can offer new strategies for instilling resilience, emotional regulation, and self-control. In fact, adolescents might be assisted to not only cope, but excel, in spite of the challenges imposed by this pandemic. Our work will feed into the larger societal response that utilizes the discoveries about adolescence in the way we raise, teach, and treat young people during this time of crisis. Wave 1 data has already been collected from 2,002 young people aged 13-24, measuring their mental health (anxiety, depression, trauma), family functioning, social networks, and resilience, and social risk-taking at the time of the pandemic. Here we present a preliminary report of our findings, (Report 1). Data collected 21/4/20- 29/4/20 - a month after the lockdown started).

scholarly journals How is the COVID-19 lockdown impacting the mental health of parents of school-age children in the UK? A cross-sectional online survey

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. e043397
Author(s):  
Austen El-Osta ◽  
Aos Alaa ◽  
Iman Webber ◽  
Eva Riboli Sasco ◽  
Emmanouil Bagkeris ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Physical Activity ◽  
Social Isolation ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Female Gender ◽  
School Age Children ◽  
School Age ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

ObjectiveInvestigate the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on feelings of loneliness and social isolation in parents of school-age children.DesignCross-sectional online survey of parents of primary and secondary school-age children.SettingCommunity setting.Participants1214 parents of school-age children in the UK.MethodsAn online survey explored the impact of lockdown on the mental health of parents with school-age children, and in particular about feelings of social isolation and loneliness. Associations between the UCLA Three-Item Loneliness Scale (UCLATILS), the Direct Measure of Loneliness (DMOL) and the characteristics of the study participants were assessed using ordinal logistic regression models.Main outcome measuresSelf-reported measures of social isolation and loneliness using UCLATILS and DMOL.ResultsHalf of respondents felt they lacked companionship, 45% had feelings of being left out, 58% felt isolated and 46% felt lonely during the first 100 days of lockdown. The factors that were associated with higher levels of loneliness on UCLATILS were female gender, parenting a child with special needs, lack of a dedicated space for distance learning, disruption of sleep patterns and low levels of physical activity during the lockdown. Factors associated with a higher DMOL were female gender, single parenting, parenting a child with special needs, unemployment, low physical activity, lack of a dedicated study space and disruption of sleep patterns during the lockdown.ConclusionsThe COVID-19 lockdown has increased feelings of social isolation and loneliness among parents of school-age children. The sustained adoption of two modifiable health-seeking lifestyle behaviours (increased levels of physical activity and the maintenance of good sleep hygiene practices) wmay help reduce feelings of social isolation and loneliness during lockdown.

scholarly journals Emotional and Mental Wellbeing Following COVID-19 Public Health Measures on People Living With Dementia and Carers

2021 ◽  
pp. 089198872199681
Author(s):  
Kerry Hanna ◽  
Clarissa Giebel ◽  
Hilary Tetlow ◽  
Kym Ward ◽  
Justine Shenton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Mental Health ◽  
Social Support ◽  
Support Services ◽  
Mental Wellbeing ◽  
Daily Lives ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Social Support Services ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Background: To date, there appears to be no evidence on the longer-term impacts caused by COVID-19 and its related public health restrictions on some of the most vulnerable in our societies. The aim of this research was to explore the change in impact of COVID-19 public health measures on the mental wellbeing of people living with dementia (PLWD) and unpaid carers. Method: Semi-structured, follow-up telephone interviews were conducted with PLWD and unpaid carers between June and July 2020. Participants were asked about their experiences of accessing social support services during the pandemic, and the impact of restrictions on their daily lives. Results: 20 interviews were conducted and thematically analyzed, which produced 3 primary themes concerning emotional responses and impact to mental health and wellbeing during the course of the pandemic: 1) Impact on mental health during lockdown, 2) Changes to mental health following easing of public health, and 3) The long-term effect of public health measures. Conclusions: The findings from this research shed light on the longer-term psychological impacts of the UK Government’s public health measures on PLWD and their carers. The loss of social support services was key in impacting this cohort mentally and emotionally, displaying a need for better psychological support, for both carers and PLWD.

scholarly journals The impact of sitting time and physical activity on mental health during COVID-19 lockdown

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Pears ◽  
Susanna Kola-Palmer ◽  
Liane Beretta De Azevedo
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Physical Activity ◽  
Health Outcomes ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Depression Score ◽  
Sitting Time ◽  
Multiple Stepwise Regression Analysis ◽  
Previous Diagnosis ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Objective The primary aim of this study was to investigate the association between physical activity (PA) and sitting time on adults’ mental health (i.e., depression, anxiety and wellbeing) and the influence of mediators and confounders. Methods An online survey was disseminated in the UK between May and June 2020. A total of 284 participants (33.5 ± 12.4 years) self-reported their PA, sitting time and mental health through validated questionnaires. Results Multiple stepwise regression analysis revealed that being of younger age, female, on a lower income, with one or more comorbid health conditions, with a previous diagnosis of mood disorder and increased sitting time independently correlated with higher depression scores (F (13,219) = 12.31, p < 0.001), and explained 42% of the variance. Similar results were found for wellbeing where socio-demographic, health outcomes and sitting time influenced the subjective wellbeing (F (14,218) = 5.77, p < 0.001, 27% variance), although only socio-demographic and health outcomes contributed to the variation in anxiety score (F (13,219) = 7.84, p < 0.001, 32% variance). PA did not explain variation when sitting time was taken into account in any of the models. Combined analysis revealed that participants with lower sedentary time (< 8 h) and with both low or moderate and high PA presented a significantly lower depression score [low PA: (B = −2.7, 95% CI −4.88, −0.52); moderate and high PA (B = −2.7, −4.88, −0.52)]. Conclusion Sitting time was strongly associated with adverse mental health during COVID-19 lockdown and should be considered in future public health recommendations.

scholarly journals Mental health and death in custody: the Angiolini Review

Race & Class ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 62 (3) ◽  
pp. 7-17
Author(s):  
Eddie Bruce-Jones
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Legal Aid ◽  
Health Implications ◽  
Vulnerable Communities ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

The author discusses the findings and recommendations of the first official review of practices and processes relating to and following police-related deaths in the UK. Dame Elish Angiolini’s 2017 report paid particular notice to mental health implications and the impact on families who had lost loved ones. Excerpts are provided here of remarks by Deborah Coles (of INQUEST) and Marcia Rigg (of the United Families and Friends Campaign) at the report’s launch – focusing on the call for automatic legal aid for families at inquests and the end to police conferring after an incident. Though not an abolitionist text, the author points to certain recommendations which could lead to less and less dangerous policing of vulnerable communities.

Leveraging Twitter Using Artificial Intelligence to Explore Mental Health Insights in the UK During the COVID-19 Pandemic (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Marshall ◽  
Kate Lanyi ◽  
Rhiannon Green ◽  
Georgie Wilkins ◽  
Fiona Pearson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Language Processing ◽  
Mental Health Problems ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Research Activity ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Key Topics ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND There is increasing need to explore the value of soft-intelligence, leveraged using the latest artificial intelligence (AI) and natural language processing (NLP) techniques, as a source of analysed evidence to support public health research activity and decision-making. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to further explore the value of soft-intelligence analysed using AI through a case study, which examined a large collection of UK tweets relating to mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS A search strategy comprising a list of terms related to mental health, COVID-19, and lockdown restrictions was developed to prospectively collate relevant tweets via Twitter’s advanced search application programming interface over a 24-week period. We deployed a specialist NLP platform to explore tweet frequency and sentiment across the UK and identify key topics of discussion. A series of keyword filters were used to clean the initial data retrieved and also set up to track specific mental health problems. Qualitative document analysis was carried out to further explore and expand upon the results generated by the NLP platform. All collated tweets were anonymised RESULTS We identified and analysed 286,902 tweets posted from UK user accounts from 23 July 2020 to 6 January 2021. The average sentiment score was 50%, suggesting overall neutral sentiment across all tweets over the study period. Major fluctuations in volume and sentiment appeared to coincide with key changes to any local and/or national social-distancing measures. Tweets around mental health were polarising, discussed with both positive and negative sentiment. Key topics of consistent discussion over the study period included the impact of the pandemic on people’s mental health (both positively and negatively), fear and anxiety over lockdowns, and anger and mistrust toward the government. CONCLUSIONS Through the primary use of an AI-based NLP platform, we were able to rapidly mine and analyse emerging health-related insights from UK tweets into how the pandemic may be impacting people’s mental health and well-being. This type of real-time analysed evidence could act as a useful intelligence source that agencies, local leaders, and health care decision makers can potentially draw from, particularly during a health crisis.

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