scholarly journals Enhanced Evolutionary Sequential Minimal Optimization Model for Inflation Prediction

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4.19) ◽  
pp. 788
Author(s):  
Eman S. Al-Shamery ◽  
Hussein A. Al – Gashamy
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Great Influence ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
The United States ◽  
Current Data ◽  
The Past ◽  
Inflation Forecasts ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Central Bankers

The control of inflation rate is at the core of monetary policy making. Therefore, there is very great interest in reliable inflation forecasts by central bankers to help them achieve this aim. The aim of this investigation has been to forecast inflation in case of the United States as accurately as possible. This paper proposes a new forecasting model called Sequential Minimal Organization (SMOreg-3passes) for regression predictions. SMOreg-3passes consists of four steps, they are technical indicators generation, feature selection, normalization regression and regression forecaster. The proposed model evaluated using two regression measurements (Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE)). Our evidence from the SMOreg-3passes model suggests that the chronology of time series has great influence on future forecasting and the error in forecasting the past has an exponential impact on the current data. The results showed that the proposed model outperformed the traditional SMO and Multiple Layer Perception (MLP) methods. 

scholarly journals A Methodology for Predicting Aggregate Flight Departure Delays in Airports Based on Supervised Learning

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2749 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bojia Ye ◽  
Bo Liu ◽  
Yong Tian ◽  
Lili Wan
Keyword(s):  
Supervised Learning ◽  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Accuracy Rate ◽  
Forecast Horizon ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Extremely Randomized Trees ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Operational Data

This paper proposes a new methodology for predicting aggregate flight departure delays in airports by exploring supervised learning methods. Individual flight data and meteorological information were processed to obtain four types of airport-related aggregate characteristics for prediction modeling. The expected departure delays in airports is selected as the prediction target while four popular supervised learning methods: multiple linear regression, a support vector machine, extremely randomized trees and LightGBM are investigated to improve the predictability and accuracy of the model. The proposed model is trained and validated using operational data from March 2017 to February 2018 for the Nanjing Lukou International Airport in China. The results show that for a 1-h forecast horizon, the LightGBM model provides the best result, giving a 0.8655 accuracy rate with a 6.65 min mean absolute error, which is 1.83 min less than results from previous research. The importance of aggregate characteristics and example validation are also studied.

A COMPARITIVE ANALYSIS AND TIME SERIES FORECASTING OF MONTHLY STREAM FLOW DATA USING HYBRID MODEL

2015 ◽  
Vol 76 (13) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siraj Muhammed Pandhiani ◽  
Ani Shabri
Keyword(s):  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Discrete Wavelet ◽  
Flow Data ◽  
Indus River ◽  
Proposed Model

In this study, new hybrid model is developed by integrating two models, the discrete wavelet transform and least square support vector machine (WLSSVM) model. The hybrid model is then used to measure for monthly stream flow forecasting for two major rivers in Pakistan. The monthly stream flow forecasting results are obtained by applying this model individually to forecast the rivers flow data of the Indus River and Neelum Rivers. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and the correlation (R) statistics are used for evaluating the accuracy of the WLSSVM, the proposed model. The results are compared with the results obtained through LSSVM. The outcome of such comparison shows that WLSSVM model is more accurate and efficient than LSSVM.

scholarly journals In the free web of science

2003 ◽  
Vol 02 (04) ◽  
pp. F02
Author(s):  
Mauro Scanu
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Web Of Science ◽  
Scientific Literature ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
The United States ◽  
Circulation System ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Web

A ghost is wandering around the web: it is called open access, a proposal to modify the circulation system of scientific information which has landed on the sacred soil of scientific literature. The circulation system of scientific magazines has recently started faltering, not because this instrument is no longer a guarantee of quality, but rather for economic reasons. In countries such as Great Britain, as shown in the following chart, the past twenty years have seen a dramatic increase in subscription fees, exceeding by far the prices of other publishing products and the average inflation rate. The same trend applies to the United States.

A Model of Trust Based on Uncertainty Theory

2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (02) ◽  
pp. 269-298 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehrdad Ashtiani ◽  
Shima Hakimi-Rad ◽  
Mohammad Abdollahi Azgomi
Keyword(s):  
Trust Management ◽  
Uncertainty Theory ◽  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Trust Model ◽  
Computational Trust ◽  
Empirical Distributions ◽  
Trust Modeling ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Risk Acceptance

In trust management systems, the trustor should be able to select a trustee candidate that has the maximum trustworthiness degree toward a specific goal and an amount of risk consistent with her/his risk acceptance degree. In this research, a novel computational trust model based on the principles of uncertainty theory is introduced. In the proposed model, trust is considered to be constructed of trustworthiness components. To calculate each of these trustworthiness components, empirical distributions of recommenders and trustor’s opinions about the existing trustworthiness and risk degrees of the trustee candidates are aggregated. In the decision making stage, the trustee candidate with the optimum trustworthiness and risk degrees is selected according to uncertain goal programming. Based on this method, trustworthiness and risk degrees of the trustee candidates are calculated according to the amount of negative and positive deviations from the optimal state. To verify the accuracy of the model’s behavior, a series of simulation scenarios are constructed. The results of these simulations demonstrate that the proposed model effectively selects the best trustee candidate according to parameters such as context, priorities of the trustworthiness components, trustor’s constraints and the trustworthiness and risk acceptance degrees. Finally, by comparing the model with other commonly used computational trust modeling approaches, it is shown that the proposed model has a lower mean absolute error (MAE) and produces more accurate results.

International Research and Variation in Views of Ethnicity

2012 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 66-72
Author(s):  
Ella Inglebret ◽  
Amy Skinder-Meredith ◽  
Shana Bailey ◽  
Carla Jones ◽  
Ashley France
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Classification System ◽  
International Research ◽  
The United States ◽  
Research Articles ◽  
Journal Articles ◽  
Research Participants ◽  
The Past ◽  
International Scale ◽  
Publication Patterns

The authors in this article first identify the extent to which research articles published in three American Speech-Language-Hearing Association (ASHA) journals included participants, age birth to 18 years, from international backgrounds (i.e., residence outside of the United States), and go on to describe associated publication patterns over the past 12 years. These patterns then provide a context for examining variation in the conceptualization of ethnicity on an international scale. Further, the authors examine terminology and categories used by 11 countries where research participants resided. Each country uses a unique classification system. Thus, it can be expected that descriptions of the ethnic characteristics of international participants involved in research published in ASHA journal articles will widely vary.

Proportion of Individuals With Past-Year Suicidal Ideation Who Attempted Suicide Over the Past 10 Years in the United States, and the Influence of Age and Sex

Crisis ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
Shannon Lange ◽  
Courtney Bagge ◽  
Charlotte Probst ◽  
Jürgen Rehm
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Suicidal Ideation ◽  
Random Effects ◽  
Attempted Suicide ◽  
Suicide Attempts ◽  
The United States ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Past ◽  
Meta Analyses ◽  
Age Category

Abstract. Background: In recent years, the rate of death by suicide has been increasing disproportionately among females and young adults in the United States. Presumably this trend has been mirrored by the proportion of individuals with suicidal ideation who attempted suicide. Aim: We aimed to investigate whether the proportion of individuals in the United States with suicidal ideation who attempted suicide differed by age and/or sex, and whether this proportion has increased over time. Method: Individual-level data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), 2008–2017, were used to estimate the year-, age category-, and sex-specific proportion of individuals with past-year suicidal ideation who attempted suicide. We then determined whether this proportion differed by age category, sex, and across years using random-effects meta-regression. Overall, age category- and sex-specific proportions across survey years were estimated using random-effects meta-analyses. Results: Although the proportion was found to be significantly higher among females and those aged 18–25 years, it had not significantly increased over the past 10 years. Limitations: Data were self-reported and restricted to past-year suicidal ideation and suicide attempts. Conclusion: The increase in the death by suicide rate in the United States over the past 10 years was not mirrored by the proportion of individuals with past-year suicidal ideation who attempted suicide during this period.

EDITORIAL: Migration and competitiveness: Japan and the United States

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 115-124
Author(s):  
Philip L. Martin
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Variable Cost ◽  
Fixed Cost ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Science And Engineering ◽  
The Past ◽  
Past Half Century ◽  
Key Sectors ◽  
Past Half

Japan and the United States, the world’s largest economies for most of the past half century, have very different immigration policies. Japan is the G7 economy most closed to immigrants, while the United States is the large economy most open to immigrants. Both Japan and the United States are debating how immigrants are and can con-tribute to the competitiveness of their economies in the 21st centuries. The papers in this special issue review the employment of and impacts of immigrants in some of the key sectors of the Japanese and US economies, including agriculture, health care, science and engineering, and construction and manufacturing. For example, in Japanese agriculture migrant trainees are a fixed cost to farmers during the three years they are in Japan, while US farmers who hire mostly unauthorized migrants hire and lay off workers as needed, making labour a variable cost.

Democratic Legitimacy

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre Rosanvallon
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Democratic Legitimacy ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Constitutional Courts ◽  
International Debate ◽  
The Past ◽  
Democratic Authority ◽  
Original Contribution ◽  
Western Democracies

It's a commonplace occurrence that citizens in Western democracies are disaffected with their political leaders and traditional democratic institutions. But this book argues that this crisis of confidence is partly a crisis of understanding. The book makes the case that the sources of democratic legitimacy have shifted and multiplied over the past thirty years and that we need to comprehend and make better use of these new sources of legitimacy in order to strengthen our political self-belief and commitment to democracy. Drawing on examples from France and the United States, the book notes that there has been a major expansion of independent commissions, NGOs, regulatory authorities, and watchdogs in recent decades. At the same time, constitutional courts have become more willing and able to challenge legislatures. These institutional developments, which serve the democratic values of impartiality and reflexivity, have been accompanied by a new attentiveness to what the book calls the value of proximity, as governing structures have sought to find new spaces for minorities, the particular, and the local. To improve our democracies, we need to use these new sources of legitimacy more effectively and we need to incorporate them into our accounts of democratic government. This book is an original contribution to the vigorous international debate about democratic authority and legitimacy.

The Riddle of a Common History

2009 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mauricio Tenorio-Trillo
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Common Ground ◽  
The United States ◽  
History Textbooks ◽  
Recent History ◽  
History Textbook ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
Constant Part ◽  
Intrinsic Component

By identifying two general issues in recent history textbook controversies worldwide (oblivion and inclusion), this article examines understandings of the United States in Mexico's history textbooks (especially those of 1992) as a means to test the limits of historical imagining between U. S. and Mexican historiographies. Drawing lessons from recent European and Indian historiographical debates, the article argues that many of the historical clashes between the nationalist historiographies of Mexico and the United States could be taught as series of unsolved enigmas, ironies, and contradictions in the midst of a central enigma: the persistence of two nationalist historiographies incapable of contemplating their common ground. The article maintains that lo mexicano has been a constant part of the past and present of the US, and lo gringo an intrinsic component of Mexico's history. The di erences in their historical tracks have been made into monumental ontological oppositions, which are in fact two tracks—often overlapping—of the same and shared con ictual and complex experience.

Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders: Employment Issues in the United States

2011 ◽  
Vol 9 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 58-69
Author(s):  
Marlene Kim
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Asian Americans ◽  
The United States ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Pacific Islanders ◽  
Native Hawaiians ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
High Poverty ◽  
Unemployment Rates

Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders (AAPIs) in the United States face problems of discrimination, the glass ceiling, and very high long-term unemployment rates. As a diverse population, although some Asian Americans are more successful than average, others, like those from Southeast Asia and Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders (NHPIs), work in low-paying jobs and suffer from high poverty rates, high unemployment rates, and low earnings. Collecting more detailed and additional data from employers, oversampling AAPIs in current data sets, making administrative data available to researchers, providing more resources for research on AAPIs, and enforcing nondiscrimination laws and affirmative action mandates would assist this population.

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