scholarly journals Improving Forecasting Accuracy in the Case of Intermittent Demand Forecasting

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daisuke Takeyasu ◽  
Asami Shitara ◽  
Kazuhiro Takeyasu
Keyword(s):  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Intermittent Demand ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy

Improving Demand Forecasting Accuracy for Cultural Facilities Using Gravity Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 121-163
Author(s):  
Yun Ju Ham ◽  
Yun Jun Kim ◽  
Geun Seok Hong
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy

Pooling in Tourism Demand Forecasting

2018 ◽  
Vol 58 (7) ◽  
pp. 1161-1174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wen Long ◽  
Chang Liu ◽  
Haiyan Song
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Spatial Effects ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Demand Models ◽  
Forecasting Performance

This study investigates whether pooling can improve the forecasting performance of tourism demand models. The short-term domestic tourism demand forecasts for 341 cities in China using panel data (pooled) models are compared with individual ordinary least squares (OLS) and naïve benchmark models. The pooled OLS model demonstrates much worse forecasting performance than the other models. This indicates the huge heterogeneity of tourism across cities in China. A marked improvement with the inclusion of fixed effects suggests that destination features that stay the same or vary very little over time can explain most of the heterogeneity. Adding spatial effects to the panel data models also increases forecasting accuracy, although the improvement is small. The spatial distribution of spillover effects is drawn on a map and a spatial pattern is recognized. Finally, when both spatial and temporal effects are taken into account, pooling improves forecasting performance.

scholarly journals Intermittent demand forecasting for medical consumables with short life cycle using a dynamic neural network during the COVID-19 epidemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 3106-3122
Author(s):  
Peipei Liu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Model Selection ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Seasonal Adjustment ◽  
Intermittent Demand ◽  
Short Life ◽  
Dynamic Neural Network ◽  
Demand Models ◽  
The Impact

Accurate demand forecasting is always critical to supply chain management. However, many uncertain factors in the market make this issue a huge challenge. Especially during the current COVID-19 outbreak, the shortage of certain types of medical consumables has become a global problem. The intermittent demand forecast of medical consumables with a short life cycle brings some new challenges, such as the demand occurring randomly in many time periods with zero demand. In this research, a seasonal adjustment method is introduced to deal with seasonal influences, and a dynamic neural network model with optimized model selection procedure and an appropriate model selection criterion are introduced as the main forecasting models. In addition, in order to reduce the impact of zero demand, it adds some input nodes to the neural network by preprocessing the original input data. Lastly, a modified error measurement method is proposed for performance evaluation. Experimental results show that the proposed forecasting framework is superior to other intermittent demand models.

scholarly journals Timing matters: crisis severity and occupancy rate forecasts in social unrest periods

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard T.R. Qiu ◽  
Anyu Liu ◽  
Jason L. Stienmetz ◽  
Yang Yu
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Hospitality Industry ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Time Series Model ◽  
Social Media Data ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Media Data

Purpose The impact of demand fluctuation during crisis events is crucial to the dynamic pricing and revenue management tactics of the hospitality industry. The purpose of this paper is to improve the accuracy of hotel demand forecast during periods of crisis or volatility, taking the 2019 social unrest in Hong Kong as an example. Design/methodology/approach Crisis severity, approximated by social media data, is combined with traditional time-series models, including SARIMA, ETS and STL models. Models with and without the crisis severity intervention are evaluated to determine under which conditions a crisis severity measurement improves hotel demand forecasting accuracy. Findings Crisis severity is found to be an effective tool to improve the forecasting accuracy of hotel demand during crisis. When the market is volatile, the model with the severity measurement is more effective to reduce the forecasting error. When the time of the crisis lasts long enough for the time series model to capture the change, the performance of traditional time series model is much improved. The finding of this research is that the incorporating social media data does not universally improve the forecast accuracy. Hotels should select forecasting models accordingly during crises. Originality/value The originalities of the study are as follows. First, this is the first study to forecast hotel demand during a crisis which has valuable implications for the hospitality industry. Second, this is also the first attempt to introduce a crisis severity measurement, approximated by social media coverage, into the hotel demand forecasting practice thereby extending the application of big data in the hospitality literature.

scholarly journals Forecasting intermittent and sparse time series: A unified probabilistic framework via deep renewal processes

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. e0259764
Author(s):  
Ali Caner Türkmen ◽  
Tim Januschowski ◽  
Yuyang Wang ◽  
Ali Taylan Cemgil
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Discrete Time ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Trivial Extension ◽  
Renewal Processes ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Unified Framework ◽  
Intermittent Demand

Intermittency are a common and challenging problem in demand forecasting. We introduce a new, unified framework for building probabilistic forecasting models for intermittent demand time series, which incorporates and allows to generalize existing methods in several directions. Our framework is based on extensions of well-established model-based methods to discrete-time renewal processes, which can parsimoniously account for patterns such as aging, clustering and quasi-periodicity in demand arrivals. The connection to discrete-time renewal processes allows not only for a principled extension of Croston-type models, but additionally for a natural inclusion of neural network based models—by replacing exponential smoothing with a recurrent neural network. We also demonstrate that modeling continuous-time demand arrivals, i.e., with a temporal point process, is possible via a trivial extension of our framework. This leads to more flexible modeling in scenarios where data of individual purchase orders are directly available with granular timestamps. Complementing this theoretical advancement, we demonstrate the efficacy of our framework for forecasting practice via an extensive empirical study on standard intermittent demand data sets, in which we report predictive accuracy in a variety of scenarios.

scholarly journals Combining Qualitative and Time Series Forecasting to Increase the Forecasting Accuracy for Instant Noodle Sales in Thailand

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Teerada Khamphinit ◽  
Pornthipa Ongkunaruk
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Sales Data ◽  
Average Percentage ◽  
Sales Forecast ◽  
Instant Noodle ◽  
Instant Noodles

<p>Demand forecasting is very important for the planning process. The forecast accuracy affects the efficiency of the procurement, production and delivery processes. Our research has the objective of increasing the sales forecasting accuracy of instant noodles for a case study company in Thailand. Many factors affect the sales of instant noodles, such as promotion, other commodities’ prices, national disaster and production capacity. Thus, we collected historical monthly sales data, analysed the data and their pattern and considered whether the data were irregular due to those factors. After obtaining the forecast data, data intervention by adjustment of the irregular effects was performed in accordance with our experience and judgement. Next, we used the predictor function in the Crystal Ball software to determine the best time series forecasting method for actual and adjusted sales data. Then, we verified the result with the actual sales data for one year. The result showed that the adjustment could increase the sales forecast accuracy by 46.14%, 22.53% and 56.42% for products A, B and C, respectively. In summary, the mean average percentage sales forecast error after adjustment was 6.48%–11.62%, which is better than the current method of forecasting based on experts.  </p><p><strong>Keywords</strong>: Instant Noodle; Intervention; Qualitative Forecasting; Sales Adjustment; Time Ser ies Forecasting </p>

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