Bounds for expected payoff on two stocks

2020 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Cloud Makasu
Keyword(s):  
Expected Payoff

The Influence of Potentially Fraudulent Reports on Audit Risk Assessment and Planning

2001 ◽  
Vol 76 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Paul Newman ◽  
Evelyn Patterson ◽  
Reed Smith
Keyword(s):  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Dynamic Interaction ◽  
Fraudulent Financial Reporting ◽  
Expected Payoff ◽  
Audit Risk ◽  
Audit Planning ◽  
Inherent Risk ◽  
Risk Detection ◽  
Reported Earnings

We consider how auditors assess the risk of fraudulent financial reporting and plan their audit where a possibly fraudulent auditee anticipates the assessment and planning process. The auditor uses the auditee's (possibly fraudulent) earnings report to revise his beliefs about the likelihood of fraud when formulating an audit plan. We find that as underlying earnings increase, a fraudulent auditee increases reported earnings. In turn, as the auditee's reported earnings increase, the auditor increases audit effort. We also find that the auditee (who knows the auditor will use the report for audit planning) selects reports that increase his own expected payoff, relative to reports he would select if the auditor did not observe the report before finalizing the audit plan. By contrast, the auditor is no better off using the auditee's report for audit planning. Inherent risk, detection risk, and overall audit risk can increase when the auditor uses the auditee's report. Thus, because of the dynamic interaction between the auditor and auditee, procedures that aid in assessing audit risk may not reduce that risk or result in more efficient audits.

scholarly journals Cooperative Stochastic Games with Mean-Variance Preferences

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 230
Author(s):  
Elena Parilina ◽  
Stepan Akimochkin
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Stochastic Games ◽  
Stochastic Game ◽  
Stochastic Variable ◽  
Expected Payoff ◽  
The Core ◽  
Risk Sensitive ◽  
Payoff Functions ◽  
Cooperative Solutions ◽  
Mean Variance

In stochastic games, the player’s payoff is a stochastic variable. In most papers, expected payoff is considered as a payoff, which means the risk neutrality of the players. However, there may exist risk-sensitive players who would take into account “risk” measuring their stochastic payoffs. In the paper, we propose a model of stochastic games with mean-variance payoff functions, which is the sum of expectation and standard deviation multiplied by a coefficient characterizing a player’s attention to risk. We construct a cooperative version of a stochastic game with mean-variance preferences by defining characteristic function using a maxmin approach. The imputation in a cooperative stochastic game with mean-variance preferences is supposed to be a random vector. We construct the core of a cooperative stochastic game with mean-variance preferences. The paper extends existing models of discrete-time stochastic games and approaches to find cooperative solutions in these games.

Strategic voting revisited: the case of the 2018 Taipei City mayoral election

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Chung-li Wu ◽  
Alex Min-Wei Lin ◽  
Chingching Chang
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Strategic Voting ◽  
Expected Payoff ◽  
Preliminary Results ◽  
Mayoral Election ◽  
Taipei City ◽  
The Media

Abstract In this study, we examine whether strategic voting – in which a voter seeks to maximize the expected payoff from casting a ballot – occurred among late voters in the 2018 Taipei City mayoral election. This multi-candidate mayoral contest was noteworthy because ballot-counting started before all the votes had been cast, with preliminary results being leaked to the media. Theoretically, having access to real-time updates of voting figures could have influenced the decision of voters who were still in line waiting to cast their ballots. Analysis and reconstruction of aggregate polling data, however, demonstrate that there was very little (if any) strategic voting among these late voters on election day, even if they had information that might have induced them to vote strategically.

Selective crowdsourcing with various type task: models and analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 815-839 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinglong Gou ◽  
Fangdi Deng ◽  
Yanyan He
Keyword(s):  
Incomplete Information ◽  
Private Information ◽  
Marginal Cost ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Learning Effect ◽  
Task Type ◽  
Expected Payoff ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Winner Takes All

Purpose Selective crowdsourcing is an important type of crowdsourcing which has been popularly used in practice. However, because selective crowdsourcing uses a winner-takes-all mechanism, implying that the efforts of most participants except the final winner will be just in vain. The purpose of this paper is to explore why this costly mechanism can become a popularity during the past decade and which type of tasks can fit this mechanism well. Design/methodology/approach The authors propose a game model between a sponsor and N participants. The sponsor is to determine its reward and the participants are to optimize their effort-spending strategy. In this model, each participant's ability is the private information, and thus, all roles in the system face incomplete information. Findings The results of this paper demonstrate the following: whether the sponsor can obtain a positive expected payoff are determined by the type of tasks, while the complex tasks with a strong learning effect is more suitable to selective crowdsourcing, as for the other two types of task, the sponsor cannot obtain a positive payoff, or can just gain a rather low payoff; besides the task type, the sponsor's efficiency in using the solutions and the public's marginal cost also influence the result that whether the sponsor can obtain a positive surplus from the winner-takes-all mechanism. Originality/value The model presented in this paper is innovative by containing the following characteristics. First, each participant's ability is private information, and thus, all roles in the system face incomplete information. Second, the winner-takes-all mechanism is used, implying that the sponsor's reward will be entirely given to the participant with the highest quality solution. Third, the sponsor's utility from the solutions, as well as the public's cost to complete the task, are both assumed as functions just satisfying general properties.

The behaviour of strategy-frequencies in Parker's model

1980 ◽  
Vol 12 (01) ◽  
pp. 5-7
Author(s):  
D. Gardiner
Keyword(s):  
Finite Number ◽  
Evolutionarily Stable Strategy ◽  
Pure Strategy ◽  
Payoff Matrix ◽  
Stable Strategy ◽  
Expected Payoff ◽  
Pure Strategies ◽  
Image Position ◽  
Evolutionarily Stable

Parker's model (or the Scotch Auction) for a contest between two competitors has been studied by Rose (1978). He considers a form of the model in which every pure strategy is playable, and shows that there is no evolutionarily stable strategy (ess). In this paper, in order to discover more about the behaviour of strategies under the model, we shall assume that there are only a finite number of playable pure strategies I 1, I 2, ···, I n where I j is the strategy ‘play value m j ′ and m 1 < m 2 < ··· < m n . The payoff matrix A for the contest is then given by where V is the reward for winning the contest, C is a constant added to ensure that each entry in A is non-negative (see Bishop and Cannings (1978)), and E[I i , I j ] is the expected payoff for playing I i against I j . We also assume that A is regular (Taylor and Jonker (1978)) i.e. that all its rows are independent.

scholarly journals Nash versus coarse correlation

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 1178-1204 ◽  
Author(s):  
Konstantinos Georgalos ◽  
Indrajit Ray ◽  
Sonali SenGupta
Keyword(s):  
Nash Equilibrium ◽  
Correlated Equilibrium ◽  
Individual Choice ◽  
Pure Nash Equilibrium ◽  
Expected Payoff ◽  
Equilibrium Payoff ◽  
Payoff Dominance ◽  
Dominated Strategies ◽  
Person Game ◽  
Nash Point

Abstract We run a laboratory experiment to test the concept of coarse correlated equilibrium (Moulin and Vial in Int J Game Theory 7:201–221, 1978), with a two-person game with unique pure Nash equilibrium which is also the solution of iterative elimination of strictly dominated strategies. The subjects are asked to commit to a device that randomly picks one of three symmetric outcomes (including the Nash point) with higher ex-ante expected payoff than the Nash equilibrium payoff. We find that the subjects do not accept this lottery (which is a coarse correlated equilibrium); instead, they choose to play the game and coordinate on the Nash equilibrium. However, given an individual choice between a lottery with equal probabilities of the same outcomes and the sure payoff as in the Nash point, the lottery is chosen by the subjects. This result is robust against a few variations. We explain our result as selecting risk-dominance over payoff dominance in equilibrium.

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