scholarly journals Perubahan dan Prediksi Penggunaan Lahan Menggunakan Markov – Cellular Automata di Kota Batu

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 202-211
Author(s):  
Fahrizal Kreshna Yudichandra ◽  
Widiatmaka Widiatmaka ◽  
Syaiful Anwar
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Cellular Automata ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Apple Orchards ◽  
Land Use Conversion ◽  
The Past ◽  
Open Land ◽  
Environment Sustainability ◽  
Potential Land

Along with the development of Batu City as a tourist city, it is feared that there will be an increase in land use conversion from apple orchards and other agricultural land into residential and tourism land. The rate of land use change must be controlled to maintain environment sustainability. One of the effort is studying the change that occurred in the past few years. The purpose of this study were to observe land use change pattern that occured in 2006, 2012, and 2018, and to predict the land use at 2030 in Batu City. Land use prediction was evaluated with Markov – Cellular Automata models. The analysis showed that forest area decreased up to 5% and the built area increased up to 5.2% from 2006 to 2018. Prediction of land use in 2030 showed that there will be a decrease in forest, agriculture, and bareland areas, and an increase in shrubs and built areas. Agricultural land needs to be directed to be protected or conserved, while shrubs and open land need to be directed into potential land for apple orchards development in Batu City.

scholarly journals ARAHAN PENGENDALIAN PERUBAHAN PENGGUNAAN LAHAN MENGGUNAKAN MARKOV - CELLULAR AUTOMATA DI KABUPATEN CIANJUR

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 211
Author(s):  
Rani Yudarwati ◽  
Santun R.P Sitorus ◽  
Khursatul Munibah
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Cellular Automata ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Landuse Change ◽  
The Past ◽  
Land Use Scenario ◽  
Environment Sustainability ◽  
Spatial Plan

Controlling the rate of land use change is necessary due to maintaining environment sustainability.  One of the efforts is studying the changes that occur in the past few years. These changes can be studied by Markov - Cellular Automata model.Cianjur is one of the regency that has a high risk of landslide hazard, so it is necessary to control land use change in order to realize environmental sustainability in accordance with the spatial plan of Cianjur regency (RTRW). The purpose of this study was to see land use changes that occurred and evaluated with the spatial plan (RTRW) and also to conduct controlling scenarios of land use changes. The analysis showed that Cianjur regency has drastically decreased in forest area up to 10,3% and landuse inconsistencyof 10,4%. The prediction results showed that landuse change without intervention would dramatically increase inconsistency up to 20,5%. Land use scenario of restoring forest could reduce inconsistency up to 16,6%.

Agricultural land use change and associated driving forces over the past 180 years in two municipalities of the Brazilian Cerrado

GeoJournal ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 84 (3) ◽  
pp. 555-570 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murilo Rodrigues de Arruda ◽  
Maja Slingerland ◽  
José Zilton Lopes Santos ◽  
Ken E. Giller
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Agricultural Land Use ◽  
Brazilian Cerrado ◽  
The Past

scholarly journals Adequacy Analysis of Green Open Space and its Development Direction as an Attributes of Green City in the Capital of Jember Regency, Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 53
Author(s):  
Santun R.P. Sitorus ◽  
Imelda Kusuma Wardani ◽  
Setyardi Pratika Mulya
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Cellular Automata ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Open Space ◽  
Paddy Fields ◽  
Sustainable Urban Development ◽  
Dryland Agriculture ◽  
Development Direction ◽  
Potential Land ◽  
Green City

The development of an urban area needs to pay attention to the environmental carrying capacity. One of the way to achieve sustainable urban development is to apply one of the attributes of green city namely green open space (GOS). The purpose of the research are to analyze the types of land use in the years of 2010 and 2017, to analysis land use changes from 2010 to 2017, predicting land use change, analyzing the adequacy of GOS by area acreage and population number, and to determine the direction of GOS development in the Jember City.The research was conducted in the Capital of Jember Regency, namely Jember City with the total area of 9,900 ha. Methods of data analysis are the spatial analysis, analysis of population growth with quadratic growth model, Cellular Automata-Markov, and synthesis of green open space (GOS) development direction based on potential land and the value of the land. The results showed that there are ten types of land use in the Jember City, those are forest, mixed gardens, dryland agriculture, open land, cemetery, plantation, settlements and buildings, paddy fields, shrubs and grasses, and river. A relatively large land use changed in the period of 2010-2017 were dryland agriculture and paddy fields into settlements and buildings. The results of land use prediction with Cellular Automata-Markov described the trend of land use change becomes settlements (buildings) and plantations. The adequacy of public GOS by area as well as population still lacking whereas the adequacy of private GOS has been exceeded. The GOS acreage based on number of population is lower than those GOS based on an area. The GOS development planning is required to fulfill the needs. The consideration used to draw up the directives is the existing land use, regional spatial plan (RTRW), prediction of land use in the year of 2024, distribution of GOS, and land values. Development plans of GOS consist of two stages namely stage 1 and stage 2 with three priorities, namely priority 1, priority 2, and priority 3 with the total area 1,052 ha and funding require approximately two trillion rupiahs. The acreage of potential land for development of GOS has already enough to fulfill the needs of GOS based on population, however, not yet sufficient to fulfill the needs of GOS based on regency area.

scholarly journals The changing face of southern New Zealand farming: opportunities of land use change

2012 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
R.J. Copland ◽  
D.R. Stevens
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Dairy Cows ◽  
Social Influences ◽  
Family Ownership ◽  
Marginal Land ◽  
Dairy Sheep ◽  
The Past ◽  
Potential Land

Southern New Zealand has seen major changes in land use in the past 20 years with the rise in dairy cows in milk from 149 000 in 1994 to 682 000 in 2010, while breeding ewe numbers have declined from 11.2 million to 7.3 million over the same period. The development of milking platforms with a significant need for winter dairy grazing has opened up many opportunities for sheep, beef and deer farmers in the region. The need to remain profitable, displacement of sheep to more marginal land, and social influences such as retaining family ownership have encouraged farmers to make the most of potential land-use change opportunities. Three case studies outline the changes made and potential profitability increases in dairy conversion, flexible sheep and beef operations and improved deer production, with cash surplus after expenses being more than doubled in each case. Keywords: land use, profit, dairy, sheep, beef, deer.

scholarly journals SPATIAL SIMULATION BASED ON GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM (GIS) AND CELLULAR AUTOMATA (CA) FOR LAND USE CHANGE MODELING IN SINGARAJA CITY AND ITS SURROUNDING AREA

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nyoman Arto Suprapto
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Cellular Automata ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Geographic Information ◽  
Spatial Simulation ◽  
Land Use Change Modeling ◽  
The City

Singaraja is the second largest city after Denpasar in Bali. The magnitude of the potential of the region both trade and services, agriculture and tourism in Buleleng Regency has given a very broad impact not only on the economy but also the use of land. Economic development in the city of Singaraja cause some effects such as population growth, an increasing number of facilities (social, economic, health, and others), as well as changes in land use.Changes in land use have a serious impact on the environment in the city of Singaraja. The development of urban areas of Singaraja has given the excesses of increasing the land conversion. Suburb dominated by wetland agriculture has now turned into buildings to meet the needs of shelter, trade and services as well as urban utilities. This study was conducted by mean to determine how changes in land use from agricultural land into build up land during twelve years (period of 2002 - 2014) and the prediction of land use within the next 12 years (period of 2020 and 2026). Prediction of land use changes will be done using spatial simulation method which is integrating Cellular Automata (CA) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) which analyzed based on land requirement, the driving variable of land use changes (population and road) and the inhabiting variable of land use change (slope steepness and rivers).Keywords : Land Use Change, Land Use Change Modeling, Celullar Automata, GIS

scholarly journals Modelling forest loss and other land use change dynamics in Ashanti Region of Ghana

2015 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 96-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Addo Koranteng ◽  
Tomasz Zawila-Niedzwiecki
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Cellular Automata ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Combination Method ◽  
Agricultural Land Use ◽  
Landsat Images ◽  
Ashanti Region ◽  
Disaster Monitoring

Abstract Forest losses amid land use dynamics have become issues of outermost concern in the light of climate change phenomenon which has captivated the world’s attention. It is imperative to monitor land use change and to forecast forms of future land use change on a temporal and spatial basis. The main thrust of this study is to assess land use change in the lower half of the Ashanti Region of Ghana within a 40 year period. The analysis of land use change uses a combination method in Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS). Cellular Automata and Markov Chain (Cellular Automata-Markov) are utilized to predict for land use land cover (LULC) change for 2020 and 2030. The processes used include: (i) a data pre-processing (geometric corrections, radiometric corrections, subset creation and image enhancement) of epoch Landsat images acquired in 1990, 2000, and Disaster Monitoring Constellation (DMC) 2010; (ii) classification of multispectral imagery (iii) Change detection mapping (iv) using Cellular Automata-Markov to generate land use change in the next 20 years. The results illustrate that in years 2020 to 2030 in the foreseeable future, there will an upsurge in built up areas, while a decline in agricultural land use is envisaged. Agricultural land use would still be the dominant land use type. Forests would be drastically reduced from close to 50% in 1990 to just fewer than 10% in 2030. Land use decision making must be very circumspect, especially in an era where Ghana has opted to take advantage of REDD+. Studies such as this provide vital pieces of information which may be used to monitor, direct and influence land use change to a more beneficial and sustainable manner

scholarly journals Exploring Forest Change Spatial Patterns in Papua New Guinea: A Pilot Study in the Bumbu River Basin

Land ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 282 ◽  
Author(s):  
Willie Doaemo ◽  
Midhun Mohan ◽  
Esmaeel Adrah ◽  
Shruthi Srinivasan ◽  
Ana Paula Dalla Corte
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Papua New Guinea ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Spatial Patterns ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
New Guinea ◽  
The Past ◽  
High Resolution Satellite Images

Papua New Guinea is a country in Oceania that hosts unique rain forests and forest ecosystems which are crucial for sequestering atmospheric carbon, conserving biodiversity, supporting the livelihood of indigenous people, and underpinning the timber market of the country. As a result of urban sprawl, agricultural expansion, and illegal logging, there has been a tremendous increase in land-use land cover (LULC) change happening in the country in the past few decades and this has triggered massive deforestation and forest degradation. However, only a few studies have ventured into quantifying the long-term trends and their associated spatial patterns—and have often presented contrasting responses. Herein, we intended to assess the extent of deforestation and the rate of urbanization that happened in the past 33 years (1987–2020) in the Bumbu river basin in Papua New Guinea using satellite imagery—for the years 1987, 2002, 2010, and 2020—and Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. On performing image classification, land use maps were developed and later compared with Google Earth’s high-resolution satellite images for accuracy assessment purposes. For probing into the spatial aspects of the land-use change issues, the study area was divided into four urban zones and four forest zones according to the four main cardinal directions centered in the urban and forest area centers of the 1987 image; subsequently, the rate of urban area expansion in each urban zone was separately calculated. From our preliminary analysis and literature survey, we observed several hurdles regarding the classification of regenerative forests and mixed pixels and gaps in LULC studies that have happened in Papua New Guinea to date. Through this communication paper, we aim to disseminate our preliminary results, which highlight a rapid increase in urban extent from 14.39 km2 in 1987 to 23.06 km2 in 2020 accompanied by a considerable decrease in forest extent from 76.29 km2 in 1987 to 59.43 km2 in 2020; this observation favors the presumption that urban and agricultural land expansion is happening at the cost of forest cover. Moreover, strategies for addressing technical issues and for integrating land-use change with various socioeconomic and environmental variables are presented soliciting feedback.

scholarly journals Arahan Kebijakan Untuk Mengurangi Dinamika Penggunaan Lahan pada DAS Antokan, Provinsi Sumatera Barat

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 10-18
Author(s):  
Iswandi Umar
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
The Other ◽  
Land Use Conversion ◽  
West Sumatra ◽  
Open Land ◽  
Overlay Technique ◽  
Policy Direction ◽  
Land Use Maps

The need for land has increased every year, and this increase is caused by the rate of population growth, resulting in changes in land use. Uncontrolled land use conversion has led to catastrophic flooding in the Antokan watershed. The purpose of this study was to determine the direction of land use change policies in the Antokan Watershed, West Sumatra Province. To determine land use change using the GIS method with the overlay technique of land use maps for the period 2000-2020. Furthermore, to determine the policy direction using the ISM method involving 20 experts. Research results in the Antokan watershed have shown changes in land use of 4,178 hectares during the 2000-2020 period. Changes occur in forest areas, mixed gardens, shrubs, and rice fields which have decreased, on the other hand, settlements, plantations and open land have expanded. Furthermore, there are two sub-elements that are the priority for policy direction to reduce the rate of land use change, namely making regulations and firm sanctions on land use errors (E3) and consistency in enforcing land use laws (E4).

scholarly journals Climate Change and Land Use Change in the Eastern Coastal Belt of Bangladesh, Elucidated by Analyzing Rice Production Area in the Past and Future

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 83-92 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md Shafiul Alam
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Agricultural Land Use ◽  
Salinity Intrusion ◽  
The Past ◽  
Production Area

Climate change is an important issue now-a-days. Global warming i.e. climate change causes sea level rise and that affect the coastal agricultural areas of Bangladesh. The net-cropped area of eastern coastal zone in Bangladesh has been decreasing over the years due to various purposes and the most common one is the land inundation and salinity intrusion by tidal water. The main aims of the study is to assess the change in climatic conditions particularly temperature, rainfall and agricultural land use change in the past and future. Past rainfall, temperature and salinity data have been used to assess the climatic and salinity conditions of the area under investigation. Normalized difference vegetation Index (NDVI) and False Color Composite (FCC) of digital Land sat images have been used to identify land use pattern and Boro rice coverage area. During last 31 years (1978 -2009) 31% rice production land has converted to shrimp culture and salt farming. Salinity intrusion is one of the major causes of agricultural land use change. Salinity level has increased dramatically in dry season during last decade due to increase of temperature, low rainfall pattern, high evaporation rate and low water discharge to the river systems. Future landuse has been projected for 2039 by Markov Model. Result shows that rice production area will decrease rapidly due to salinity intrusion as well as climate change which may threat for food security of Bangladesh. Hereafter, the Government of Bangladesh, national and international institutions will have to work together for minimizing the effect of climate change for food security. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/jles.v8i0.20151 J. Life Earth Sci., Vol. 8: 83-91, 2013

A GIS-Based Irregular Cellular Automata Model of Land-Use Change

2007 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 708-724 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Stevens ◽  
Suzana Dragićević
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Cellular Automata ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Spatial Data ◽  
Cellular Automata Model ◽  
Population Growth Rates ◽  
Asynchronous Development ◽  
Canadian City ◽  
Ca Model ◽  
Developing Area

This study proposes an alternative cellular automata (CA) model, which relaxes the traditional CA regular square grid and synchronous growth, and is designed for representations of land-use change in rural-urban fringe settings. The model uses high-resolution spatial data in the form of irregularly sized and shaped land parcels, and incorporates synchronous and asynchronous development in order to model more realistically land-use change at the land parcel scale. The model allows urban planners and other stakeholders to evaluate how different subdivision designs will influence development under varying population growth rates and buyer preferences. A model prototype has been developed in a common desktop GIS and applied to a rapidly developing area of a midsized Canadian city.

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