scholarly journals The Euro Area Imbalances Narrative in a Franco-German Perspective: The Importance of the Longer-Run View

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ansgar Belke ◽  
Daniel Gros
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Base Period ◽  
Export Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Wage Moderation ◽  
Distributional Consequences

AbstractThere is a symmetrical debate in two Euro area core countries: in France about the restrictive fiscal policy of Germany, leading to a huge external surplus, in Germany about the insufficient compliance with fiscal rules and the lack of structural reforms in France. What are the real causes of the divergence between the two economies? We show that different indicators of competitiveness yield very different results depending on the base period used, e.g. 1995 (peak of reunification boom), 1999 or 1990. A comparison with the pre-unification period shows little gain in competitiveness. We also find, somewhat surprisingly, that Germany’s industry is not more integrated in international value chains than that of France or Italy. We then look at the link between export growth and export prices and argue that in the long run exports are not driven by competitiveness but by the increased supply of labor resulting from unification. In addition, we ask what drove ‘wage moderation’ in Germany: policy or the labor market. We finally analyse the longer-term trend in fiscal policy and the resulting distributional consequences in both countries. Our more general policy implication is that any analysis which compares today to the trough of German performance after unification risks over-estimating the potential of the country. Given that the ‘internal unification’ process is complete now, one should not expect the Germans to continue to outperform France as it has done over the last two decades.

Short Run Costs of Structural Reforms

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rana Sajedi
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Potential Role ◽  
Product Market ◽  
Labour Markets ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Structural reforms that increase competition in product markets, or increase flexibility in labour markets, can entail short run output costs unless offset by a demand expansion. When monetary policy is constrained and cannot carry out this short run expansion, there is a potential role for fiscal policy. This chapter quantifies these short run fiscal costs and long run fiscal benefits of reforms, and investigates how the design of reforms can affect this trade-off. In the model, both the costs and benefits of reforms are generally small, although increasingly large reforms entail larger rises in deficit-to-GDP in the short run. Results suggest that reforms in labour markets have little effect on public finances in the long run, but can help to ameliorate the short run costs of product market reforms.

Fiscal Policy: Institutions versus Rules

2005 ◽  
Vol 191 ◽  
pp. 64-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Wyplosz
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Great Success ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Fiscal Discipline ◽  
Annual Budget ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Fiscal discipline is as much needed as monetary discipline. Many countries have attempted to counter the deficit bias by adopting fiscal rules that typically set a limit to their annual budget deficits. The record is not satisfactory; rules are either too lax or too tight and then ignored. This article suggests that the solution is to adopt the approach followed by inflation targeting central banks, with great success. Independent and accountable Fiscal Policy Committees, given the task of achieving debt targets and the authority to decide - or recommend - annual deficits, will be free from the deficit bias. This will allow them to exercise discretion in the short run while delivering debt sustainability in the long run.

Analysis of tax-spend nexus for Russian regional budgets

2020 ◽  
pp. 5-29
Author(s):  
Evsey T. Gurvich ◽  
Natalia A. Krasnopeeva
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Fiscal Discipline ◽  
Federal Level ◽  
Regional Budgets ◽  
Econometric Technique

We study the tax-spend nexus for Russian regional budgets. Causal relationship running from taxing to spending is found, thus supporting the concept “tax and spend” suggested by M. Friedman. Next, elasticity of expenditure by revenue is estimated for a panel of 80 regional budgets basing on data for 2000—2017. Estimates are in the range of 0.72 to 0.78 (depending on the econometric technique), which exceeds elasticity for the federal budget more than twice. This evidences that fiscal policy at the sub-federal (as distinct from the federal) level has clear pro-cyclical nature. Besides, the largest sensitivity of expenditure to revenue shocks is found for the item “national economy”, implying marked adverse implications for economic growth. We suggest to mitigate this effect by modifying fiscal rules for sub-federal budgets. They are currently aimed primarily at enhancing fiscal discipline, with less emphasis on countercyclical policy, insulating economy from fiscal shocks.

Discretionary fiscal policy in the Euro area: Past, present and future

2020 ◽  
pp. 55-85
Author(s):  
Francesco Caprioli ◽  
Marzia Romanelli ◽  
Pietro Tommasino
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Discretionary Fiscal Policy

EUROPEAN FISCAL RULES AS A LIABILITY IN THE TRANSATLANTIC TRADE CONFLICT: LESSONS FROM NiGEM SIMULATIONS

2020 ◽  
Vol 254 ◽  
pp. R54-R66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Dullien ◽  
Sabine Stephan ◽  
Thomas Theobald
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
European Union ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Transatlantic Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trump Administration

Under the Trump administration, a transatlantic trade conflict has been escalating step by step. First, it was about tariffs on steel and aluminium, then about retaliation for the French digital tax, which is suspended until the end of the year. Most recently, the US administration threatened the European Union with tariffs on cars and car parts because of Canadian seafood being subject to lower import duties. As simulations with NiGEM show, a further escalation of the transatlantic trade conflict has the potential to slow down economic growth significantly in the countries involved. This is a considerable risk given the fact that the countries have to cope with the enormous negative effects of the pandemic shock. Furthermore, the damage caused by the trade conflict depends on the extent to which the affected countries use fiscal policy to stabilise their economies.

Braucht die EU einen flexibleren Stabilitätspakt?

2004 ◽  
Vol 53 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carsten Hefeker ◽  
Friedrich Heinemann ◽  
Klaus F. Zimmermann
Keyword(s):  
Public Awareness ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
External Control ◽  
Public Expenditures ◽  
Stability And Growth Pact ◽  
Consolidation Process ◽  
Growth Pact ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Stability

AbstractIn his contribution Carsten Hefeker points out that most of the official arguments concerning the necessity of the Stability and Growth Pact are not convincing. Nevertheless, a mechanism that credibly avoids excessive debts and deficits is needed in most member states. It would be more useful, however, if such rules would focus on overall debt rather than on deficits. In addition, he advocates to create an external control for such fiscal rules, independent from the Commission and ECOFIN. He concludes that the Pact does not need to become more flexible, but more credible.Friedrich Heinemann states that much of the recent reform debate on the Stability Pact is based on a fundamental misconception: The Pact has not been established as a guiding tool for welfare - maximising politicians, but in order to limit detrimental incentives from fiscal short-sightedness. “Stupid” elements like the three-per-cent deficit ceiling have a clear and beneficial strategic function as boundary within the national budgetary process. Furthermore, simple rules are superior to smart ones in increasing the political costs of high deficits in terms of public awareness. The critique on the pact′s missing flexibility is correct mainly regarding its lose logical link to long-run sustainability. Increasing flexibility in a cyclical sense, however, is not a reform priority. Already today the Pact leaves sufficient leeway for responsible politicians. Instead, the reform focus must be on depoliticising the pact in the sense of limiting Council power in the deficit procedure. More flexibility must not come without depoliticising. He recommends that any reform should only be carried into effect with a significant time lag in order to limit the reputation damage which would be the consequence of any quick institutional response to the Pact′s recent crisis.In his paper Klaus F. Zimmermann argues that the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) has been subject to criticism ever since its inception. He points out that it overlooks business cycle developments within the framework of the consolidation process; it adopts a too short-term view of the stabilisation target which is also hardly under control of policy-makers; and it deals with policy imperfections in a sub-optimal way. Therefore, a reform of the SGP is urgent. The author suggests that the rules must be handled more flexibly. In his opinion, a mediumterm budgetary target and a focus on public expenditures to tackle the pro-cyclical bias is needed. To restore credibility, the task of supervision should be transferred to an independent European institution.

HABIT FORMATION AND GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY

2003 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 407-423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cem Karayalçin
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Time Preference ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Fiscal Shocks

The paper studies the effects of an expansionary fiscal policy in a general equilibrium model of a small open economy. Households are assumed to possess habit-forming, endogenous rates of time preference. In response to fiscal shocks, the model generates cyclical endogenous persistence and procyclical time paths for consumption, employment, and investment, as well as a countercyclical path for the current account. Furthermore, fiscal shocks are shown to have positive long-run effects on output and negative long-run effects on consumption.

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