scholarly journals Poland’s Trade with East Asia: An Outlier Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 81-100
Author(s):  
Shoiw-Mei Tseng
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Economic Transformation ◽  
Series Data ◽  
East Asian Country ◽  
European Debt Crisis

Abstract Poland achieved an excellent reputation for economic transformation during the recent global recession. The European debt crisis, however, quickly forced the reorientation of Poland’s trade outside of the European Union (EU), especially toward the dynamic region of East Asia. This study analyzes time series data from 1999 to 2013 to detect outliers in order to determine the bilateral trade paths between Poland and each East Asian country during the events of Poland’s accession to the EU in 2004, the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009, and the European debt crisis from 2010 to 2013. From the Polish standpoint, the results showed significantly clustering outliers in the above periods and in the general trade paths from dependence through distancing and improvement to the chance of approaching East Asian partners. This study also shows that not only China but also several other countries present an excellent opportunity for boosting bilateral trade, especially with regard to Poland’s exports.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Bilateral Trade Balance: The Case of U.S. Agriculture

2009 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 213-228 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jungho Baek ◽  
Won W. Koo ◽  
Kranti Mulik
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Agricultural Trade ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Series Data ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Trading Partners

This study examines the dynamic effects of changes in exchange rates on bilateral trade of agricultural products between the United States and its 15 major trading partners. Special attention is paid to investigate whether or not the J-curve hypothesis holds for U.S. agricultural trade. For this purpose, an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration is applied to quarterly time-series data from 1989 and 2007. Results show that the exchange rate plays a crucial role in determining the short- and long-run behavior of U.S. agricultural trade. However, we find little evidence of the J-curve phenomenon for U.S. agricultural products with the United States’ major trading partners.

Comparative and International Political Economy and the Global Financial Crisis

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alison Johnston
Keyword(s):  
International Economic ◽  
Political Economy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
International Political Economy ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
European Debt Crisis ◽  
Foreign Credit

The 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and subsequent European Debt Crisis had wide-sweeping consequences for global economic and political stability. Yet while these twin crises have prompted soul searching within the economics profession, international political economy (IPE) has been relatively ineffective in accounting for variation in crisis exposure across the developed world. The GFC and European Debt Crisis present the opportunity to link IPE and comparative political economy (CPE) together in the study of international economic and financial turmoil. While the GFC was prompted by the inter-connectedness of global financial markets, its instigators were largely domestic in nature and were reflective of negative externalities that stemmed from unsustainable national policies, especially those related to financial regulation and household debt accumulation. Many in IPE take an “outward looking in” approach to the examination of international economic developments and domestic politics; analysis rests on how the former impacts the latter. The GFC and European Debt Crisis, however, demonstrate the importance of a (CPE-based) “inward looking out” approach, analyzing how unique policy and political features (and failures) of individual nation states can unleash economic and financial instability at the global level amidst deepened economic and financial integration. IPE not only needs to grant greater attention to variation in domestic politics and policies in a time of closely integrated financial markets, but also should acknowledge the impact of a wider array of actors beyond banks and financial institutions (specifically more domestically rooted actors like households) on cross-national variation in the consumption of foreign credit.

scholarly journals The Effect of the Global Financial Crisis on the Level of Accounting Conservatism in Commercial Banks: Evidence from Jordan

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 151 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yusuf Ali Al-Hroot ◽  
Laith Akram Muflih AL-Qudah ◽  
Faris Irsheid Audeh Alkharabsha
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Accounting Conservatism ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This paper intends to investigate whether the financial crisis (2008) exerted an impact on the level of accounting conservatism in the case of Jordanian commercial banks before and during the financial crisis. The sample of this study includes 78 observations; these observations are based on the financial statements of all commercial banks in Jordan and may be referred to as cross-sectional data, whereas the period from 2005 to 2011 represents a range of years characterized by time series data. The appropriate regression model to measure the relationship between cross-sectional data and time series data is in this case the pooled data regression (PDR) using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method. The results indicate that the level of accounting conservatism had been steadily increasing over a period of three years from 2005 to 2007. The results also indicate that the level of accounting conservatism was subjected to an increase during crisis period between 2009 and 2011 compared with the level of accounting conservatism for the period 2005-2007 preceding the global financial crisis. The F-test was used in order to test the significant differences between the regression coefficients for the period before and during the global financial crisis. The results indicate a positive impact on the accounting conservatism during the global financial crisis compared with the period before the global financial crisis. The p-value is 0.040 which indicates that there are statistically significant differences between the two periods; these results are consistent with the results in Sampaio (2015).

The economic impact of a rise in US trade protectionism on East Asia

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 265-279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Inkyo Cheong ◽  
Jose Tongzon
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
East Asian Country ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Asean Countries

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the economic impact of a rising US trade protectionism on the economies of China, Japan, South Korea and the ASEAN countries and draw out some policy and strategic implications for the USA and East Asia. Design/methodology/approach The authors employ a computable general equilibrium approach supplemented with qualitative analyses based on empirical evidence. Findings An increase in US import tariffs would result in economic losses for the USA and the corresponding country or region to which the import tariff increase is applied. An increase in US import tariffs for Chinese goods alone would not have any spillover effects on other East Asian countries. But, an imposition of a border adjustment tax (BAT) for all countries and for all products would actually boost US economic growth. Advanced economies would enjoy GDP increases, but China, Korea and the ASEAN countries would face an economic loss in a longer term period, although they would enjoy some growth in the short term. However, when the BAT only applies to a specific East Asian country, USA would suffer an economic loss, with the exception of a BAT specifically targeted at the ASEAN countries. ASEAN countries would not experience any economic loss under all scenarios except in the case of import tariffs specifically targeted at ASEAN. Research limitations/implications From the US perspective, it is beneficial to adopt a BAT for all countries and across the board. Under this arrangement, there would be an economic loss for China, Korea and the ASEAN countries in the longer term. An increase in US trade protectionism would only push the East Asian countries towards deeper economic integration, with serious implications for global pattern of trade and investment. Originality/value The existing literature on the likely economic impact of US trade protectionism on East Asia is very scarce and based on surveys and subjective speculations. This study uses a quantitative method based on empirical evidence.

scholarly journals MANAGING THE NOODLE BOWL: THE FRAGILITY OF EAST ASIAN REGIONALISM

2008 ◽  
Vol 53 (03) ◽  
pp. 449-478 ◽  
Author(s):  
RICHARD E. BALDWIN
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Window Of Opportunity ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Industrial Competitiveness ◽  
Regional Management ◽  
Is Management ◽  
Asian Regionalism ◽  
Management Effort

The paper argues that East Asian regionalism is fragile, since (i) each nation's industrial competitiveness depends on the smooth functioning of "Factory Asia" — in particular, on intra-regional trade; (ii) the unilateral tariff-cutting that created "Factory Asia" is not subject to WTO discipline (bindings); (iii) there is no "top-level management" to substitute for WTO discipline, i.e., to ensure that bilateral trade tensions — tensions that are inevitable in East Asia — do not spillover into region-wide problems due to lack of cooperation and communication. This paper argues that the window of opportunity for East Asian "vision" was missed; what East Asia needs now is "management", not vision. East Asia should launch a "New East Asian Regional Management Effort", with a reinforced ASEAN + 3 being the most likely candidate for the job. The first priority should be to bind the region's unilateral tariff cuts in the WTO.

The China Factor Blunts the Cutting-Edge of the Japan-Malaysia Free Trade Agreement

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 1850152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khondaker Mizanur Rahman ◽  
Rafiqul Islam Molla ◽  
Md. W. Murad
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Early Years ◽  
Sharp Edge ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Trade Growth ◽  
The Impact

Most industrialized and industrializing countries of the world were highly nervous about the spread effect of the surge of investment, industrialization and economic growth in China during early years of the 2000s. They were anxiously searching for ways and means to protect their economic interests from this effect. To describe this phenomenon eloquently the mass media used the term `China factor in world trade.' Against this backdrop the Japan-Malaysia free trade agreement (FTA) under an economic partnership agreement was signed in 2005 and implemented from 2006 with the expectation that it would be able to protect their bilateral trade from the sharp edge of the China factor and further enhance trade and investment relationships between the two countries. This study examines its effectiveness in influencing their bilateral trade growth in the face of this so called China factor. From analyses of the time series data on Malaysia's trade during 1986-2007 it is observed that the bilateral trade between Malaysia and Japan became stagnant during 2001-2005 with an average annual value of US$25.35 billion as a result of the impact of the China factor. However, during 2006-2007, the initial two years of its operation, the FTA was able to minimize the impacts of the China factor and revamp the growth of the bilateral trade at a modest rate. It is projected that their bilateral trade will grow marginally and reach to US$50.34 billion in 2010; but the growth rate will start declining from that year. This, in effect, indicates that the China factor's massive impact has blunted the sharp-edge of the Japan-Malaysia FTA's `tactical merit' for promoting bilateral trade growth. As a result, it is found to have only a modest and short lived influence on bilateral trade growth in the presence of China's increasing involvement in Malaysia's industrial growth. However, for a more reliable assessment a longer experience of FTA will be required.

scholarly journals Econometric Modelling: Testing of Randomness,Volatility, Casualty and Cointegration of Emerging Stock Market Indices of India and MIST Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 1402-1417
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Good News ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Lm Test ◽  
The Impact

In general, stock market indices are widely interrelated to the other global markets to detect the impact of diversification opportunities. The present research paper empirically examines randomness and long term equilibrium affiliation amongst the emerging stock market of India and Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey from the monthly time series data during February 2008 to October 2019. The researcher employs by the way, Run test, Pearson’s correlation test, Johnsen’s multivariate cointegration test, VECM and Granger causality test with reference to post-September 2008 Global financial crisis. The test results of the above finds that Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex is significantly cointegrated either among themselves or with MIST countries particularly during the post-September Global financial crisis. No random walk is found during the study period. The ADF (Augmented DickeyFuller) and PP (Phillips Pearson) tests evidenced stationarity at the level, but converted into non-stationarity in first difference. Symmetric and asymmetric volatility behaviors are studied using GARCH, EGARCH and TARCH models in order to test which model has the best forecasting ability. Leverage effect was apparent during the study period. So the influx of bad news has a bigger shock or blow on the conditional variance than the influx of good news. The residual diagnostic test (Correlogram-Squared residuals test, ARCH LM test and Jarque-Bera test) confirms GARCH (1,1) as the best suited model for estimating volatility andforecasting stock market index.

scholarly journals Economic Transformation in Bangladesh and the Income Velocity of Broad Money: An Econometric Analysis

2019 ◽  
pp. 408-417
Author(s):  
Ms. Sharmina Khanom
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Economic Transformation ◽  
Econometric Analysis ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Velocity Of Money

This study has undertaken an econometric analysis of economic transformation and income velocity of broad money. To find out the relevant determinants of income velocity of money this paper used time series data on year basis. This paper focus to discover the key determinants of the velocity of money in Bangladesh using the Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF) unit root test to inspect the stationary, Engle-Granger residual-based cointegration approach to demonstrate the co-integrating association among variables. The main conclusions of this paper are: (i) relationship exists between the velocity of money and financial development. Other important variables that determine GDP growth show a negative relationship with the velocity of money but maintain a positive relationship with the deposit interest rate. Finally, this study concludes by giving some policy recommends for Bangladesh with respect to the velocity of broad money and the monetary policy.

scholarly journals Detection of Outliers in the Volatility of Malaysia Shariah Compliant Index Return: The Impulse Indicator Saturation Approach

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Ida Normaya Mohd Nasir ◽  
Mohd Tahir Ismail
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Time Series ◽  
The United States ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Global Events ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Impulse Indicator Saturation ◽  
Detection Of Outliers

Financial time series data often affected by various unexpected events which known as the outliers. The aim of this study is to detect the outliers in high frequency data using Impulse Indicator Saturation approach (IIS).Monte Carlo simulations illustrate the ability of IIS to detect outliers by using data with various simulation settings. For empirical application, we have chosen the Malaysia Shariah compliant index which is the FBM EMAS Shariah (FBMS) index. The result of this study discovered the presence of 47 outliers which related to several global events such as global financial crisis (2008 & 2009), the falling of stock market (2011), the United States debt-ceiling crisis (2013) and the declination of international crude oil prices (2014). Keywords: outliers; volatility; stock indices; IIS

scholarly journals Estimating time-varying selection coefficients from time series data of allele frequencies

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iain Mathieson
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Ancient Dna ◽  
Experimental Evolution ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Natural Populations ◽  
Allele Frequencies ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Alcohol Metabolism ◽  
The Past

AbstractTime series data of allele frequencies are a powerful resource for detecting and classifying natural and artificial selection. Ancient DNA now allows us to observe these trajectories in natural populations of long-lived species such as humans. Here, we develop a hidden Markov model to infer selection coefficients that vary over time. We show through simulations that our approach can accurately estimate both selection coefficients and the timing of changes in selection. Finally, we analyze some of the strongest signals of selection in the human genome using ancient DNA. We show that the European lactase persistence mutation was selected over the past 5,000 years with a selection coefficient of 2-2.5% in Britain, Central Europe and Iberia, but not Italy. In northern East Asia, selection at the ADH1B locus associated with alcohol metabolism intensified around 4,000 years ago, approximately coinciding with the introduction of rice-based agriculture. Finally, a derived allele at the FADS locus was selected in parallel in both Europe and East Asia, as previously hypothesized. Our approach is broadly applicable to both natural and experimental evolution data and shows how time series data can be used to resolve fine-scale details of selection.

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