scholarly journals Does Occupational Deregulation Affect In-Company Vocational Training? – Evidence from the 2004 Reform of the German Trade and Crafts Code

2020 ◽  
Vol 240 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Petrik Runst ◽  
Jörg Thomä
Keyword(s):  
Vocational Training ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Control Methods ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
German Trade ◽  
Cost Channel ◽  
Synthetic Control Methods ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Entry Restrictions ◽  
Rule Out

AbstractThe European Commission actively evaluates occupational entry restrictions in all member states. This has attracted a growing interest among scholars of the German crafts sector as it is governed by an idiosyncratic national set of rules. We estimate the effects of the deregulation of the German Trade and Crafts Code in 2004 on the overall vocational training levels in affected crafts trades. We employ Difference-in-Differences regressions as well as Synthetic Control Methods on data for the entire population of the German crafts sector. We provide evidence that the overall effect of the reform on vocational training levels was negative. While we cannot comprehensively rule out all potential confounding factors, we address competing explanations related to demand shocks, recession effect, and migration. In addition, there is evidence that the overall deregulation effects can be decomposed into a sunk-cost-channel and a firm size channel.

scholarly journals Synthetic Difference-in-Differences

2021 ◽  
Vol 111 (12) ◽  
pp. 4088-4118
Author(s):  
Dmitry Arkhangelsky ◽  
Susan Athey ◽  
David A. Hirshberg ◽  
Guido W. Imbens ◽  
Stefan Wager
Keyword(s):  
Asymptotic Behavior ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Time Factors ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Control Methods ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Latent Time ◽  
Synthetic Control Methods ◽  
Consistency And Asymptotic Normality

We present a new estimator for causal effects with panel data that builds on insights behind the widely used difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods. Relative to these methods we find, both theoretically and empirically, that this “synthetic difference-in-differences” estimator has desirable robustness properties, and that it performs well in settings where the conventional estimators are commonly used in practice. We study the asymptotic behavior of the estimator when the systematic part of the outcome model includes latent unit factors interacted with latent time factors, and we present conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality. (JEL C23, H25, H71, I18, L66)

scholarly journals The Costs of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit Experiment*

2019 ◽  
Vol 129 (623) ◽  
pp. 2722-2744 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Born ◽  
Gernot J Müller ◽  
Moritz Schularick ◽  
Petr Sedláček
Keyword(s):  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Control Methods ◽  
Economic Nationalism ◽  
Output Loss ◽  
Structural Time Series ◽  
Time Series Estimation ◽  
Series Estimation ◽  
Synthetic Control Methods ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
Unexpected Outcome

Abstract Economic nationalism is on the rise, but at what cost? We study this question using the unexpected outcome of the Brexit referendum vote as a natural macroeconomic experiment. Employing synthetic control methods, we first show that the Brexit vote has caused a UK output loss of 1.7% to 2.5% by year-end 2018. An expectations-augmented VAR suggests that these costs are, to a large extent, driven by a downward revision of growth expectations in response to the vote. Linking quasi-experimental identification to structural time-series estimation allows us not only to quantify the aggregate costs but also to understand the channels through which expected economic disintegration impacts the macroeconomy.

scholarly journals The Economic Consequences of the Mexican Drug War

2016 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 213-246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose Roberto Balmori de la Miyar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Control Methods ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Drug War ◽  
Synthetic Control Methods ◽  
Mexican Drug War ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Proportional Reduction

AbstractMilitary crackdowns often disrupt economic development by exacerbating violence. This paper examines the case of the Mexican Drug War, employing synthetic control methods. To prove causality, I use variation on statewide military operations, as well as the rollout of the war. Findings indicate a decrease in GDP per capita equal to 0.5%, in states with military operations. Determinants by which the Mexican Drug War hampered economic development include a proportional reduction in consumption per capita, and a decline in productive investment of at least 0.3%, driven by a drop of 3.2% in commercial credit granted to businesses.

scholarly journals Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects

2021 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 391-425
Author(s):  
Alberto Abadie
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Control Methods ◽  
Control Framework ◽  
The Social ◽  
Synthetic Control Methods ◽  
Synthetic Controls ◽  
Methodological Aspects ◽  
Data Requirements

Probably because of their interpretability and transparent nature, synthetic controls have become widely applied in empirical research in economics and the social sciences. This article aims to provide practical guidance to researchers employing synthetic control methods. The article starts with an overview and an introduction to synthetic control estimation. The main sections discuss the advantages of the synthetic control framework as a research design, and describe the settings where synthetic controls provide reliable estimates and those where they may fail. The article closes with a discussion of recent extensions, related methods, and avenues for future research. (JEL B41, C32, C54, E23, F15, O47)

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