scholarly journals Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects

2021 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 391-425
Author(s):  
Alberto Abadie
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Control Methods ◽  
Control Framework ◽  
The Social ◽  
Synthetic Control Methods ◽  
Synthetic Controls ◽  
Methodological Aspects ◽  
Data Requirements

Probably because of their interpretability and transparent nature, synthetic controls have become widely applied in empirical research in economics and the social sciences. This article aims to provide practical guidance to researchers employing synthetic control methods. The article starts with an overview and an introduction to synthetic control estimation. The main sections discuss the advantages of the synthetic control framework as a research design, and describe the settings where synthetic controls provide reliable estimates and those where they may fail. The article closes with a discussion of recent extensions, related methods, and avenues for future research. (JEL B41, C32, C54, E23, F15, O47)

Bayesian Synthetic Control Methods

2020 ◽  
Vol 57 (5) ◽  
pp. 831-852
Author(s):  
Sungjin Kim ◽  
Clarence Lee ◽  
Sachin Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Washington State ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Control Methods ◽  
Control Framework ◽  
Synthetic Control Methods ◽  
Large P Small N ◽  
Natural Mechanism ◽  
Pass Through

The authors propose a new Bayesian synthetic control framework to overcome limitations of extant synthetic control methods (SCMs). The proposed Bayesian synthetic control methods (BSCMs) do not impose any restrictive constraints on the parameter space a priori. Moreover, they provide statistical inference in a straightforward manner as well as a natural mechanism to deal with the “large p, small n” and sparsity problems through Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures. Using simulations, the authors find that for a variety of data-generating processes, the proposed BSCMs almost always provide better predictive accuracy and parameter precision than extant SCMs. They demonstrate an application of the proposed BSCMs to a real-world context of a tax imposed on soda sales in Washington state in 2010. As in the simulations, the proposed models outperform extant models, as measured by predictive accuracy in the posttreatment periods. The authors find that the tax led to an increase of 5.7% in retail price and a decrease of 5.5%∼5.8% in sales. They also find that retailers in Washington overshifted the tax to consumers, leading to a pass-through rate of approximately 121%.

Using Synthetic Controls to Evaluate the Effect of Unique Interventions: The Case of Say Yes to Education

2017 ◽  
Vol 41 (6) ◽  
pp. 593-619 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Bifulco ◽  
Ross Rubenstein ◽  
Hosung Sohn
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
School District ◽  
Graduation Rates ◽  
Control Method ◽  
New York State ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Control Methods ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Synthetic Control Methods ◽  
Synthetic Controls

Background: “Place-based” scholarships seek to improve student outcomes in urban school districts and promote urban revitalization in economically challenged cities. Say Yes to Education is a unique district-wide school reform effort adopted in Syracuse, NY, in 2008. It includes full-tuition scholarships for public and private universities, coupled with extensive wraparound support services in schools. Objectives: This study uses synthetic control methods to evaluate the effect of Say Yes on district enrollment and graduation rates. It also introduces the synthetic control method and provides guidance for its use in evaluating single-site interventions. Method: Combining school district-level data from the National Center for Education Statistics’ Common Core of Data and New York State School Report Cards, this article uses synthetic control methods to construct a synthetic comparison district to estimate counterfactual enrollment and graduation trends for Syracuse. Results: We find that Say Yes to Education was associated with enrollment increases in the Syracuse City School District, a district that had previously experienced decades of sustained enrollment declines. We do not find consistent evidence of changes in graduation rates following adoption of the program. Conclusions: Graduation rate analyses demonstrate that estimates of treatment effects can be sensitive to choices that the researcher has to make in applying synthetic control methods, particularly when pretreatment outcome measures appear to have considerable amounts of noise.

Personal bonds in the internationalization of the social sciences: A view from the periphery

2021 ◽  
pp. 026858092096201
Author(s):  
Leandro Rodriguez-Medina ◽  
Hebe Vessuri
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Latin America ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Research Directions ◽  
Academic Mobility ◽  
The Social ◽  
Future Research Directions

Due to the interest in formal relationships at work or to the difficulty to define what personal means, personal bonds in the social sciences have been an understudied topic. Even less has been the interest in connecting such bonds with the internationalization of careers and knowledge. In this article, the authors aim at filling this gap by studying what role personal bonds have played in the internationalization of the social sciences in Latin America. They identify factors that affect personal bonds as well as translations that scholars produce to capitalize on these ties. The most relevant of such translations, academic mobility, has to be interpreted, from a peripheral standpoint, as operating within a logic of leveling, a process that highlights structural asymmetries in the global social sciences. The authors describe both dimensions of this process and, in the concluding section, offer some policy implications and future research directions.

scholarly journals The Costs of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit Experiment*

2019 ◽  
Vol 129 (623) ◽  
pp. 2722-2744 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Born ◽  
Gernot J Müller ◽  
Moritz Schularick ◽  
Petr Sedláček
Keyword(s):  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Control Methods ◽  
Economic Nationalism ◽  
Output Loss ◽  
Structural Time Series ◽  
Time Series Estimation ◽  
Series Estimation ◽  
Synthetic Control Methods ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
Unexpected Outcome

Abstract Economic nationalism is on the rise, but at what cost? We study this question using the unexpected outcome of the Brexit referendum vote as a natural macroeconomic experiment. Employing synthetic control methods, we first show that the Brexit vote has caused a UK output loss of 1.7% to 2.5% by year-end 2018. An expectations-augmented VAR suggests that these costs are, to a large extent, driven by a downward revision of growth expectations in response to the vote. Linking quasi-experimental identification to structural time-series estimation allows us not only to quantify the aggregate costs but also to understand the channels through which expected economic disintegration impacts the macroeconomy.

The Edwards' Report and the International Relations profession

1988 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 149-152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Nicholson
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Social Science ◽  
International Relations ◽  
Research Council ◽  
Social Research ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
Social Science Community ◽  
The Social ◽  
Science Community

The Economic and Social Research Council recently published a Report commissioned from a committee chaired by Professor Edwards, a psychiatrist, so that the Council, and the social science community in general, might know what was good and bad in British social sciences, and where the promising future research opportunities lie over the next decade. Boldly called ‘Horizons and Opportunities in the Social Sciences’, the Report condensed the wisdom of social scientists, both British and foreign, and concludes with a broadly but not uncritically favourable picture of the British scene.

scholarly journals Harnessing Nature for Leisure and Creativity in Lagos Tourism and Planning

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 1719-1724
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Good Governance ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Natural Environments ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Business Opportunity ◽  
Qualitative Evidence ◽  
The Social ◽  
Methodological Approaches ◽  
Environment Service

This study reviews the recent quantitative and qualitative evidence on the need to develop our natural environments for creative and leisure purposes. Previous studies described the problem of tourism to be a universal one, as virtually all countries are faced with the problem of providing inadequate tourism for their citizens. In Nigeria urban centres the tourism conditions were not properly documented. The study investigated the tourism condition in Lagos, Nigeria. The study observed that tourism condition in the nation is presently not provided for all citizenry. The need of the majority was not considered while some of the existing few are in deplorable condition. Previous literatures reviewed shows that almost 75 percent of tourist centres are for children meaning they lack creative environment. This paper also attempts to discuss in detail the little infrastructural evidences that exists in tourism. Fifteen centres were selected and eight were investigated in this study. The study discuss the consistency of findings across Lagos State, using different methodological approaches with consideration to the major key compares the magnitudes of developing natural environment. The study adopted questionnaire as the tool for the investigation, the tool was randomly administered after which the outcomes were analysed with the use of Statistical Package for the Social Sciences, SPSS version 16. Furthermore, aside that personal observation data was also recorded. The study identifies the emerging policy, business opportunity strategy and activities for good governance and better environment. Service provider should be willing to create the inspiration garden in other to have a greater benefits and more patronage. Since most of the centres investigated are static in nature, the study suggested that in the future, research should focus on the analysis of respondent welfare in a dynamic sense.

Designing Online Laddering Studies

2012 ◽  
pp. 193-215
Author(s):  
Thorsten Gruber ◽  
Alexander E. Reppel ◽  
Isabelle Szmigin ◽  
Rödiger Voss
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Urban Planning ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Research Study ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Online Environment ◽  
Research Projects ◽  
Research Technique ◽  
The Social ◽  
Rich Data

Laddering is a well-established research technique in the social sciences which provides rich data to help understand means-end considerations otherwise hidden from quantitative research. It does this through revealing relationships between the attributes of individuals, objects or services (i.e., means), the consequences these attributes represent for the respondent, and the values or beliefs that are strengthened or satisfied by the consequences (i.e., ends). This chapter describes how qualitative researchers can successfully apply laddering in an online environment. Through an explanation of the different stages of the online laddering process, the authors hope to encourage researchers to use this technique in their urban planning research projects. To illustrate the benefits of the technique, the authors describe a research study that successfully used the laddering technique in an online environment. The chapter concludes with the discussion of the limitations of using laddering online and suggests avenues for future research.

scholarly journals Does Occupational Deregulation Affect In-Company Vocational Training? – Evidence from the 2004 Reform of the German Trade and Crafts Code

2020 ◽  
Vol 240 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Petrik Runst ◽  
Jörg Thomä
Keyword(s):  
Vocational Training ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Control Methods ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
German Trade ◽  
Cost Channel ◽  
Synthetic Control Methods ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Entry Restrictions ◽  
Rule Out

AbstractThe European Commission actively evaluates occupational entry restrictions in all member states. This has attracted a growing interest among scholars of the German crafts sector as it is governed by an idiosyncratic national set of rules. We estimate the effects of the deregulation of the German Trade and Crafts Code in 2004 on the overall vocational training levels in affected crafts trades. We employ Difference-in-Differences regressions as well as Synthetic Control Methods on data for the entire population of the German crafts sector. We provide evidence that the overall effect of the reform on vocational training levels was negative. While we cannot comprehensively rule out all potential confounding factors, we address competing explanations related to demand shocks, recession effect, and migration. In addition, there is evidence that the overall deregulation effects can be decomposed into a sunk-cost-channel and a firm size channel.

A framework to identify precarity in the social sciences: insights from qualitative research

2020 ◽  
pp. 147-166
Author(s):  
Elena Portacolone
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Qualitative Research ◽  
Vantage Point ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Limited Access ◽  
The Social ◽  
Research Studies

This chapter proposes a framework for identifying and recognising precarity based on qualitative research. It begins with a discussion of the context for precarity from the vantage point of the author’s background and broader theoretical influences. Next, challenges associated with recognizing and measuring precarity are presented. The chapter then turns to the methods used to detect precarity in two research studies, with a focus on four markers of precarity: uncertainty; limited access to appropriate services; the importance of maintaining independence, and; cumulative pressures. The chapter concludes with a discussion of the contribution made from the research studies as a means to inform future research.

scholarly journals The Economic Consequences of the Mexican Drug War

2016 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 213-246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose Roberto Balmori de la Miyar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Control Methods ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Drug War ◽  
Synthetic Control Methods ◽  
Mexican Drug War ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Proportional Reduction

AbstractMilitary crackdowns often disrupt economic development by exacerbating violence. This paper examines the case of the Mexican Drug War, employing synthetic control methods. To prove causality, I use variation on statewide military operations, as well as the rollout of the war. Findings indicate a decrease in GDP per capita equal to 0.5%, in states with military operations. Determinants by which the Mexican Drug War hampered economic development include a proportional reduction in consumption per capita, and a decline in productive investment of at least 0.3%, driven by a drop of 3.2% in commercial credit granted to businesses.

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