scholarly journals On The Contribution of Interest Expense (Income) on Total Output

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-56
Author(s):  
Ahmed Mehedi Nizam
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Total Output ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Panel Var ◽  
Intuitive Reasoning ◽  
Body Of Knowledge ◽  
Interest Income ◽  
Structural Panel ◽  
The Impact

Abstract A decrease in interest rate in traditional view of monetary policy transmission is linked to a lower cost of borrowing which eventually results into a greater spending in investment and a bigger GDP. However, a decrease in interest rate is also linked to a decrease in interest income which, in turn, affects the aggregate demand and total GDP. So far, no concerted effort has been made to investigate this positive inter-relation between interest income and GDP in the existing literature. Here in the first place we intuitively describe the inter-relation between interest income and output and then provide a micro-foundation of our intuitive reasoning in the context of a small endowment economy with finitely-lived identical households. Then we try to uncover the impact of nominal interest income on the macroeconomy using multiplier theory for a panel of some 04 (four) OECD countries. We define and calculate the corresponding multiplier values algebraically and then we empirically measure them using impulse response analysis under structural panel VAR framework. Large, consistent and positive values of the cumulative multipliers indicate a stable positive relationship between nominal interest income and output. Moreover, variance decomposition of GDP shows that a significant portion of the variance in GDP is attributed to interest income under VAR/VECM framework. Finally, we have shown how and where our analysis fits into the existing body of knowledge.

scholarly journals German banks’ behavior in the low interest rate environment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramona Busch ◽  
Helge C. N. Littke ◽  
Christoph Memmel ◽  
Simon Niederauer
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Mortgage Lending ◽  
Rate Level ◽  
Interest Income ◽  
Bond Portfolio ◽  
Rate Environment ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

AbstractUsing data from a quantitative survey of German banks at three points in time (2015, 2017 and 2019), we analyze the impact of changes in the interest rate level on banks’ net interest income and the countermeasures they take. A decline in the interest rate level has a more negative impact on net interest income, the longer the decline lasts and the lower the interest rate level is. This impact softens with increasing risk of changes in the present value of banking books. We do not find that banks generally increase their risks following a drop in income. However, poorly capitalized banks subsequently increase the credit risk of their bond portfolio. After a fall in operational income, banks increase their fee and commission income and reduce their costs. In addition, banks tend to extend their mortgage lending after a drop in their interest income.

scholarly journals The Impact of Remittances on Economic Activity

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (175) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hector Perez-Saiz ◽  
Jemma Dridi ◽  
Tunc Gursoy ◽  
Mounir Bari
Keyword(s):  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Centrality Measures ◽  
Total Output ◽  
Input Output ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Sectoral Linkages ◽  
Additional Income

We propose a simple macroeconomic model with input-output sectoral linkages based on Acemoglu et al. (2016) to quantify how changes in aggregate demand due to additional income from household’s remittances propagates through the network of input-output linkages in Sub-Saharan African countries. We first propose two network centrality measures to assess the role of some sectors as key input providers in the economy. Then, we use these measures to quantify the effect of sectoral linkages on sectoral and total output following an increase in remittances inflows. Our empirical results suggest that the effects of remittances on recipient economies increase with the degree of linkages across sectors, which is especially prominent in the case of the financial intermediation sector. Our paper contributes to the emerging macroeconomic literature on the propagation of shocks across sectors and the implications for the whole economy.

scholarly journals Assessing influence of factors on interest risk of commercial bank

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (1) ◽  
pp. 115-124
Author(s):  
Olga Mikhailovna Markova
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Commercial Bank ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
The United States ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Interest Income ◽  
Rate Risk ◽  
The Impact

In modern conditions of the rapid industrial development the banks have to forecast their risks and profitability precisely, to apply information technologies to assess their activities. To evaluate the bank's income, it is necessary to carry out an internal analysis of its assets and liabilities and determine the factors effecting the bank's profitability by managing interest rate risk. The hypothesis of the study is the analysis of the impact on the net interest income and interest rate risk of a commercial bank of factors such as the exchange rate and the key rate of the Bank of Russia (for example, Sberbank, PJSC). There has been studied the impact of the factors (exchange rate and key interest rate of Central Bank of Russia) on the bank's net interest income by using correlation and regression analysis and building a regression model. Many tools are found to be used by the experienced analysts. One of the main tools is GAP analysis of interest rate risk. There have been illustrated the graphs of changes in interest rates of savings and loan associations during the crisis in the United States in the 1950-1960, of realization of interest rate risk with an increase in interest rates, the distribution of assets and liabilities according to the maturity of the balance sheet structure, the impact of changes in the interest rate GAP on net interest income, etc. A matrix of correlations of all variables in the sample (rates of growing values) was constructed. Conclusions are drawn on the need to use hedging instruments (interest rate swaps, interest rate options), as well as of attracting the most reliable data on the state of interest rate risk in the commercial banks.

scholarly journals The Sectoral Impact of Monetary Policy Transmission in India: A Panel VAR Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-77
Author(s):  
Taniya Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Weak Link ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Panel Var ◽  
Informal Credit ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Monetary Policy Shock ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Panel Vector Autoregression

A structural panel vector autoregression (VAR) analysis is done to analyze the impact of monetary policy shock on people associated with various occupations. To understand the efficacy of bank lending channel, it is important to capture the differential occupation-wise effect of interest rate. The article finds that due to a monetary policy shock, the impulse responses capture the movement of loans in theoretically expected direction in most cases. The Granger causality tests successfully establish the long-run relationship between loans and interest rate. Also, the empirical results of good-performing states support the direct link between greater financial penetration and higher economic activity. Monetary policy shock significantly affects the lending behavior in all the sectors, except in agriculture and personal loans sector. The weak link of transmission in these sectors is mainly attributed either to lack of access to formal credit or a preference to informal credit sources over banks.

Examining the Asymmetric Impact of Monetary Policy in India

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 290-314 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeevan Kumar Khundrakpam
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Government Consumption ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

Though an accumulating body of work has analysed monetary policy transmission in India, there are few studies examining the asymmetric aspect of the transmission. Against this backdrop, segregating the interest rate setting process captured by a Taylor rule type into unanticipated and anticipated components, this article analyses the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on aggregate demand and its components, and inflation in India using quarterly data from 1996–97Q1 to 2013–14Q3. It finds that unanticipated hikes and cuts in the policy rate have a symmetric impact on aggregate demand, but differentially impact the components. While the impacts on investment are negative and symmetric, they are asymmetric on private consumption, with only an unanticipated cut in policy rate having a significant negative impact. Government consumption is unaffected by monetary policy shocks. The impact of unanticipated interest rate changes on inflation is negative and symmetric. Anticipated policy rate changes also have a negative impact on aggregate demand and its components, except for government consumption, but between certain levels, such changes are ineffective, indicating a neutral impact. Anticipated policy rate changes have a negative impact on inflation at all levels. JEL Classification: C32, C51, E31, E52

scholarly journals The IS Curve and Monetary Policy Transmission in India: A New Keynesian Perspective

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bhavesh Salunkhe ◽  
Anuradha Patnaik
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
External Demand ◽  
Policy Transmission ◽  
Empirical Performance ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

The present study assesses the empirical performance of the new Keynesian IS model by estimating the standard as well as extended specifications of both the backward-looking and hybrid models in India over the period 1998Q1 to 2015Q4. It is found that the backward-looking IS model fits the data quite well in comparison with the hybrid model. The link between the policy rate and output gap appeared to be a bit stronger in the extended backward-looking IS model, as the interest rate coefficient is larger. Also, besides the interest rate, the real exchange rate, external demand and crude oil prices also have an impact on aggregate demand. The results suggest that the standard specification of the IS curve is inadequate to estimate the impact of the interest rate on aggregate demand and therefore a broader framework which accounts for additional variables besides the interest rate may be required. JEL Classification: E520, E120, C360, E510

scholarly journals Analisis Kredit Bermasalah, Tingkat Suku Bunga Dan Profitabilitas Pada PT. Bank Perkreditan Rakyat (BPR) KCP Limbanang Kabupaten Lima Puluh Kota

2021 ◽  
pp. 26-33
Author(s):  
Selvi Yona Sari ◽  
Muahammad Putra Pratama
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Rural Credit ◽  
Nonperforming Loans ◽  
Interest Income ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to analyze problem loans, interest rates, and the impact on interest income in PT Bank Perkreditan Rakyat (BPR) KCP Limbanang, Lima Puluh Kota District. The research variables are Problematic Credit (x1), Interest Rate (x2), and Profitability (y). Based on the results of this study can be concluded that the level of nonperforming loans that occur at the Bank Perkreditan Rakyat (BPR) KCP Limbanang District Lima Puluh Kota from 2011-2012 the level of non-performing loans decreased compared to the previous year, it means the credit situation is getting better. The interest rate at Rural Bank of KCP Limbanang of Lima Puluh Kota District in 2011-2015 experienced fluctuations in the proof of the highest interest rate in 2011 and the lowest interest rate in 2015. Due to total assets in Rural Bank (BPR) KCP Limbanang District Lima Puluh Kota each year experienced a significant increase whereas profitability from the year 2011-2015 that experienced ups and downs of profitability, this is influenced by the rearrangement of terms and conditions of credit Rural Bank (BPR) KCP Limbanang District Fifty Cities.Finally, the authors suggest to Rural Credit Bank (BPR) Limbanang Kabupaten Lima Puluh Kota The level of nonperforming loans that occur in Rural Banks (BPR) KCP Limbanang District Lima Puluh Kota which continues to fall every year and also problem loans also below the maximum 5% have a positive impact on the bank, as well as an achievement for the bank as it can minimize nonperforming loans and due to improved supervision of good credit disbursement.

scholarly journals Revival of Legacy of Tooke and Gibson: Further Evidence and Implications for Monetary Policy

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 127-142
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Large Data ◽  
Careful Analysis ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Variable Bias ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractTraditional economics assumes that interest rate effects inflation by changing the aggregate demand (Barth and Ramay, 2002). On the other hand, many economists in recent years have explored the cost side effects of monetary transmission and found very strong evidences in favour of cost channel. One of such studies is that by Rehman (2015) which explores the relationship between interest rate and inflation for a large data set comprising various measures of interest rate and inflation from countries around the globe. Rehman (2015) computes the correlation between two variables and he finds that the correlation between two variables is either positive or insignificant. Rehman argues that the finding is quite robust and does not change with a change in measure of interest rate and/or inflation. If the correlation between interest rate and inflation is positive then using interest rate to control inflation would be counterproductive. Thus it will endorse the warning of Wright Patman, a US congressman and Chairman of Joint Economic Committee who argues that “senseless of trying to fight inflation by raising interest rate, throwing the gasoline on fire to put out the flames would be as logical”. Findings of Rehman (2015) are based on correlation coefficients. The correlation without having control variables could only provide a clue and could be subject to serious missing variable bias. However, Rehman (2015) argues that thousands of similar clues from the entire globe collectively become very strong evidence. However, given the importance of the topic, it is necessary to do a more careful analysis and summarize the relationship between two variables which is not subject to missing variable bias. Therefore, this paper applies more sophisticated econometric techniques including Granger Causality and Static Long Run Solution to find the impact of interest rate and inflation.

scholarly journals A Review of the Unemployment - Economic Growth Nexus in Nigeria from 1980 to 2015: A Disaggregated Approach

Growth ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 48-56
Author(s):  
Oyinlola Olaniyi ◽  
Muhammad Ali ◽  
Adesanya Babatunde Moses
Keyword(s):  
Value Chain ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Total Output ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Bound Test

The phenomenon of jobless growth in Nigeria in recent years has called to question the Okun’s law that the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) reduces unemployment. This study therefore, analyses the nexus between GDP growth and unemployment in Nigeria by disaggregating total output into its sectoral components to analyze the impact of sectoral output on unemployment using data from 1980 to-2015 employing the econometric technique of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing approach. Two ARDL models were specified. The first bound test revealed the existence of co integration between unemployment and GDP growth. The growth of GDP is positively related to unemployment in the long run but a negative relationship was found in the short run. The result of the disaggregated model (i.e the second ARDL model) found no long run relationship between unemployment and agriculture, industry, construction, trade, and services. We opined that the findings of the disaggregated model resulted from the disconnection between aggregate demand and aggregate supply of the productive sectors and the lack of direct linkages between the oil sector and other sectors of the economy. The study recommends that such linkages should be forged through enhanced funding of research and development, technological innovation and the development of value chain of agriculture and solid minerals output. Nigerians should be encouraged to consume locally made products. Efforts should be intensified to develop direct linkages between the oil sector and other sectors through input supply contracts and the development of downstream industries in the oil sector.

scholarly journals The impact of the Federal Reserve System’s interest rate channel on the components of aggregate demand

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 479-496
Author(s):  
Dominika Brózda-Wilamek
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Durable Goods ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
The Past ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Investment Spending ◽  
The Impact

Motivation: Monetary policy decisions, through the process of transmission mechanism, affect the term structure of nominal interest rates as well as other asset prices, and thus influences aggregate demand (e.g. consumer spending and business investments) and price levels through these effects. The aspect of monetary transmission to various components of aggregate demand has been relatively little studied in the literature of the subject. Aim: The main aim of the study is to empirically investigate the effect of the Fed’s monetary policy on major components of aggregate demand over the past 35 years. To this aim, the scale and timing of the interest rate pass-through to economic activity have been examined. Results: The empirical findings showed that that between 1984 and 2019, the sensitivity of consumption and investment expenditures to interest rate impulses were different. Firstly, fixed investment spending accounted for a significant part that was responsible for the response of real GDP following an interest rate shock. Secondly, in the case of personal consumption expenditures, expenses for durable goods were more sensitive to changes in the Fed’s interest rate than spending on services and nondurable goods. In this way, the study expands the existing literature by reporting the effects of the Fed’s monetary policy on major components of aggregate demand over the past 35 years

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