TOWARDS A GLOBAL CURRENCY? CONDITION AND SCENARIOS FOR EVOLUTION OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY ORDER

The main goal of the paper is to examine the key features of the current international monetary system and provide an overview of scenarios for the future global monetary arrangements. It is noted that just a few years back there seemed to be a bipolar monetary system based on the U.S. dollar and the euro in the making. The rise of China and the possible emergence of the Chinese renminbi as an international currency gave way to a debate on a tripolar monetary system. Today, the future of the international monetary system is still open. It needs reforming in order to meet the requirements of the new global order with multiple growth centers, the growing role of transnational actors, and the increasing global influence of the major emerging economies.The analysis reveals that the relations among the major international currencies are changing, and today at least three scenarios for the future monetary order seem possible. These are the maintenance of the U.S. dollar domination, a shift towards a multipolar currency order, and the gradual regionalization of the currency order. The concept of a single currency – though theoretically attracting – seems impossible to be implemented in the foreseeable future. The analysis is based on monetary and economic theories, historical patterns of the development of monetary regimes, and an extensive literature overview backed by the data provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

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Road to a Great Monetary Power

China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies ◽

10.1142/s237774001550013x ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 01 (02) ◽

pp. 265-282 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Wei Li ◽

Han Su

Keyword(s):

International System ◽

International Monetary System ◽

The United States ◽

Strategic Competition ◽

Monetary System ◽

Salient Dimension ◽

Economic Engagement ◽

Monetary Order ◽

Reform And Opening Up ◽

The U.S

Since the beginning of its reform and opening up over three decades ago, China has taken great efforts to integrate into the GATT/WTO-centered international trade system and the U.S. Dollar-centered international monetary system. By using the U.S. Dollar as the principal currency in its international economic engagement while exercising strict capital controls domestically, China has practically adopted a U.S. Dollar-dependent strategy to promote export, attract foreign investment, and maintain financial security, thus it has achieved lasting economic growth. However, with the declining credibility of the U.S. Dollar due to the U.S. financial crisis in 2008, and the increasing strategic competition between China and the United States, more and more Chinese in the policy and academic circles are skeptical of China's highly dependent monetary policy. Since 2009, China has begun to adopt a more proactive international monetary strategy by taking such measures as promoting the internationalization of the RMB, initiating new reforms of the international monetary system, and fostering a new regional monetary order. Such changes imply that China is changing its role: moving from being a dependent to a reformer of the U.S. Dollar system, which reflects a salient dimension of the evolving relationships between China and the broader international system.

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Will the Rise of China Transform the International System?

Insight Turkey ◽

10.25253/99.2021234.13 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 23 (Fall 2021) ◽

pp. 231-258

Author(s):

Kemal İnat ◽

Melih Yıldız

Keyword(s):

Soviet Union ◽

Political System ◽

International System ◽

Military Policy ◽

The Soviet Union ◽

Global Status ◽

Chinese Policy ◽

Rise Of China ◽

The Rise Of China ◽

The U.S

In this article, the rise of China is discussed in the light of economic and military data, and what the challenge from China means for the global leadership of the U.S. is analyzed. Changes in the indicators of the U.S. and China’s economic and military power over the last 30-40 years are examined and an answer is sought for the following question: What will the consequences of China’s rise be in terms of the international political system? To answer this question, similar ‘rise and challenge’ precedents are discussed to contextualize and analyze and the present challenge China poses. This article concludes that while improving its global status, China has been taking the previous cases’ failed challenges into consideration. China, which does not want to repeat the mistakes made by Germany and the Soviet Union, is hesitant to pursue an aggressive military policy and tries to limit its rivalry with the U.S. in the economic area. While Chinese policy of avoiding direct conflict and focusing on economic development has made it the biggest economic rival of the U.S, the rise of China initiates the discussions about the end of the U.S. and West-led international system.

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Future of US-China Relations: Conflict, Competition or Cooperation?

Asian Social Science ◽

10.5539/ass.v16n7p1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 16 (7) ◽

pp. 1

Author(s):

Syed Muhammad Saad Zaidi ◽

Adam Saud

Keyword(s):

Cold War ◽

International Relations ◽

The United States ◽

Great Powers ◽

Political Agenda ◽

Eastern Hemisphere ◽

The Us ◽

The Future ◽

Rise Of China ◽

The Rise Of China

In contemporary times, the geo-political agenda and geo-economic strategy of the world is being dominated by the ongoing US-China hegemonic competition. Where the United States is trying to prolong the ‘unipolar moment’ and deter the rise of China; China is trying to establish itself as the hegemon in the Eastern hemisphere, an alternate to the US. The entirely opposite interests of the two Great Powers have initiated a hostile confrontational competition for domination. This paper seeks to determine the future nature of the US-China relations; will history repeat itself and a bloody war be fought to determine the leader of the pack? or another prolonged Cold War will be fought, which will end when one side significantly weakens and collapses? Both dominant paradigms of International Relations, Realism and Liberalism, are used to analyze the future nature of the US-China relations.

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Alternative international currencies

Economic Annals ◽

10.2298/eka1294031r ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 57 (194) ◽

pp. 31-39

Author(s):

Vladimirovna Rozhentsova

Keyword(s):

International Monetary System ◽

International Currency ◽

The Past ◽

Monetary System ◽

International Currencies ◽

The World ◽

Circulation Mechanism ◽

The Creation

The modern international monetary system has a number of flaws and therefore needs cardinal change. Hence, economists from all over the world are suggesting alternative international currencies that would make the international monetary system more efficient. However, it is essential when approaching the creation of a new international currency to analyze and take into account the experience of all the past international currencies. Therefore this paper begins with an exploration of the drawbacks of each of the past and present international currencies. Drawing on this analysis a justification will be made for the necessity of introducing a new international currency, pointing to the requirements it should meet. Further on, this paper proposes an alternative theoretically possible variant of the international currency, with a fixed value relative to a commodity basket. An abstract example is used to demonstrate its composition and circulation mechanism.

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The U.S.-China technological war through the prism of techno-nationalism

Pathways to Peace and Security ◽

10.20542/2307-1494-2021-1-29-43 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 29-43

Author(s):

I. Danilin

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Global Economy ◽

Technological Development ◽

Digital Technologies ◽

The United States ◽

Market Situation ◽

Key Factor ◽

Rise Of China ◽

The Rise Of China ◽

The U.S

The “technological war” between the United States and China that started in 2017–2018 raises a number of questions about the future role of technological development as a factor in relations between superpowers. Analysis shows that for the United States this conflict is caused by changing balance of risks and benefits of the liberal model of globalization due to the rise of China`s power and growing geopolitical tensions between the two nations. In this context, emerging, especially digital, technologies appear to be a new battlefield between superpowers. Within the realist framework, actors consider emerging technologies as a key factor for strengthening their global postures. This, among other things, contributes to securitized technological agenda and strengthens its geopolitical dimension. Neo-technonationalism has become the platform that integrates different processes and goals into new U.S. policy. Although historically neo-technonationalism took its roots in Asia, the evolving market situation prompted the United States to rethink existing approaches and to upgrade the techno-nationalist dimension of its policy. Considering similar policies of China and the EU (i. e. the European digital sovereignty policy), this trend shapes new realities of technological “blocs”, the struggle for expansion of technological platforms, and technological conflicts. Taking into account prospective development needs of the global economy and future specification of mutual interest areas, as new digital technologies mature, the ground for normalizing the dialogue between the superpowers will emerge. However, at least in the U.S.–China case, this issue will be complicated by geopolitical contradictions that leave little room for any serious compromise.

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