scholarly journals Are there Multiple Bubbles in the Stock Markets? Further Evidence from Selected Countries

Ekonomika ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 98 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-95 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feyyaz Zeren ◽  
Veli Yilanci
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Multiple Bubbles ◽  
Start Dates

[full article and abstract in English] In this study, the existence of multiple bubbles in 15 selected countries is researched by means of the GSADF unit root test developed by Phillips, Shi, and Yu (2015). The data set consists of a weighted average of the monthly price/earnings ratios with the different start dates for countries whose data could accessed. As a result of the conducted analysis, the existence of multiple bubbles was detected for all the countries examined. The results demonstrate that bubbles in stock markets occur before the local and global crisis periods. We therefore conclude that the GSADF method may be used as one of the early warning systems of a financial crisis. It is significant for policymakers and investors to know these signs in terms of financial stability and profitable investments.

KLR Approach as an Early Warning Indicator of Turkish Currency and Banking Crisis in 2000 and 2001

2016 ◽  
pp. 222-239
Author(s):  
Filiz Eryılmaz
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Banking Crisis ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Window Approach ◽  
Global Growth

International organizations as private sector institutions started to develop Early Warning System [EWS] models aiming to anticipate whether and when individual countries can collide with a financial crisis. EWS models can be made most useful to help sustain global growth and maintain financial stability, especially in light of the lessons learned from the current and past crises. This paper proposes Early Warning Systems (EWS) for Turkish Currency and Banking Crisis in 2000 and 2001. To that end “KLR model” or “signaling window” approach developed by Kaminski, Lorezondo and Reinhart (1998) is testified in the empirical part of this research and applied to a sample of Turkey macroeconomic data for the 1998-2003 monthly periods.

scholarly journals The evaluation of output convergence in several Central and Eastern European countries

Ekonomika ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 94 (1) ◽  
pp. 42-51
Author(s):  
Simionescu M.
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Regression Coefficients ◽  
Small Data ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Eastern European Countries

The main objective of this study is to check the convergence in output for six countries from Central-Eastern Europe that are also members of the European Union. A slow convergence was obtained only for Greece during 2003–2012, for the rest of the countries (Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Poland and Romania) the divergence being observed. The regression coefficients were estimated using bootstrap simulations in order to solve the problem of a small data set. However, the graphical representations suggested a convergence for Bulgaria and Romania, the assumption proved also by the application of the Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test. There is no evidence of the convergence of each country towards Greece, this country having a specific evolution of its GDP with higher values than the rest of the countries.

scholarly journals Economic Growth, Inflation and Monetary Policy in Pakistan: Preliminary Empirical Estimates

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 321-333
Author(s):  
Hina Ali ◽  
Malka Liaquat ◽  
Noreen Safdar ◽  
Saeed ur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Empirical Estimates

In economic policy, construction Inflation is a core variable to be considered that determines the economic activity. To make a suitable monetary policy, it is very essential to check the price level and later on, many other variables are considered to achieve the goal. This study aims to reveal the affiliation of inflation on the growth of economic activities in Pakistan. Time series data set for the period 1989-2020 was used to have the empirical estimates.  Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root Test is employed to check the unit root of the time series and Auto Regressive Distributive Lag techniques are used for empirical estimates. The present research uses Inflation as a dependent variable and Gross Domestic Product, Interest Rate, Money Supply, and Exchange Rate as the explanatory variables of the study. The findings of this analysis reveal that there's an antagonistic relation between Inflation and GDP.

scholarly journals Regional rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a centenary database

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 1037-1054 ◽  
Author(s):  
Teresa Vaz ◽  
José Luís Zêzere ◽  
Susana Pereira ◽  
Sérgio Cruz Oliveira ◽  
Ricardo A. C. Garcia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Rainfall Thresholds ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Landslide Occurrence ◽  
Comprehensive Method ◽  
Landslide Event ◽  
Landslide Early Warning

Abstract. This work proposes a comprehensive method to assess rainfall thresholds for landslide initiation using a centenary landslide database associated with a single centenary daily rainfall data set. The method is applied to the Lisbon region and includes the rainfall return period analysis that was used to identify the critical rainfall combination (cumulated rainfall duration) related to each landslide event. The spatial representativeness of the reference rain gauge is evaluated and the rainfall thresholds are assessed and calibrated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) metrics. Results show that landslide events located up to 10 km from the rain gauge can be used to calculate the rainfall thresholds in the study area; however, these thresholds may be used with acceptable confidence up to 50 km from the rain gauge. The rainfall thresholds obtained using linear and potential regression perform well in ROC metrics. However, the intermediate thresholds based on the probability of landslide events established in the zone between the lower-limit threshold and the upper-limit threshold are much more informative as they indicate the probability of landslide event occurrence given rainfall exceeding the threshold. This information can be easily included in landslide early warning systems, especially when combined with the probability of rainfall above each threshold.

scholarly journals INVESTIGATION OF FORECASTED RISK INTERRELATIONSHIP: BASE ON GARCH MODEL, CAUSALITY IN CHINA MARKETS

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. 853-861
Author(s):  
Shu-Shian Lin
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Null Hypothesis ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Stock Exchanges ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Research Period ◽  
Integration Analysis

This paper used data from the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets to simulate the adjusted volatility, and applied time series methods to realize the relationships of the volatilities between the two markets. The unit root test, and co-integration analysis to show whether it exists equilibrium relationship. The result showed that it presented the co-integrated vectors between the volatilities of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges during the research period, and it made the regression more meaningful. Finally, it also showed that the volatility exerted one way influence between these two markets. It significantly rejected for a null hypothesis of Shanghai stock market does not granger caused Shenzhen stock market, and the results of simulated volatilities were consistent with the results in reality.

The CARE Telematics Network for the Surveillance of Influenza in Europe

1995 ◽  
Vol 34 (05) ◽  
pp. 518-522 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Bensadon ◽  
A. Strauss ◽  
R. Snacken
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Surveillance Networks ◽  
Spanish Flu ◽  
The 1950S ◽  
National Networks ◽  
First Time

Abstract:Since the 1950s, national networks for the surveillance of influenza have been progressively implemented in several countries. New epidemiological arguments have triggered changes in order to increase the sensitivity of existent early warning systems and to strengthen the communications between European networks. The WHO project CARE Telematics, which collects clinical and virological data of nine national networks and sends useful information to public health administrations, is presented. From the results of the 1993-94 season, the benefits of the system are discussed. Though other telematics networks in this field already exist, it is the first time that virological data, absolutely essential for characterizing the type of an outbreak, are timely available by other countries. This argument will be decisive in case of occurrence of a new strain of virus (shift), such as the Spanish flu in 1918. Priorities are now to include other existing European surveillance networks.

Assessment of Food Security Early Warning Systems for East and Southern Africa

10.1596/29269 ◽  
2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ademola Braimoh ◽  
Bernard Manyena ◽  
Grace Obuya ◽  
Francis Muraya
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Warning Systems
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