scholarly journals Bayesian approach to evaluation of distance courses

2014 ◽  
Vol 55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonas Mockus ◽  
Irina Vinogradova
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Prior Information ◽  
Uncertain Data ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Fuzzy Sets Theory ◽  
Distance Courses ◽  
Sets Theory ◽  
Education Courses ◽  
The Bayesian Approach

Many real applications are using uncertain data This include expert decisions based on their subjective opinions, The uncertainty can be evaluated applying fuzzy sets theory or the methods of mathematical statistics. In this paper it is proposed to use the Bayesian approach by different distribution functions defining the expert opinion and some prior information. The results are illustrated evaluating the quality of distant education courses.

A proposed method to evaluate the quality of services using Fuzzy sets theory

2012 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
pp. 871-885 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cleriston Fritsch Damasio da Silva ◽  
Deise de Araújo Batista ◽  
Denise Dumke de Medeiros
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Sets ◽  
Quality Of Services ◽  
Fuzzy Sets Theory ◽  
Sets Theory

scholarly journals Principles of Statistical Inference: Likelihood and the Bayesian Paradigm

2010 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steve C. Wang
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Statistical Inference ◽  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Subjective Probability ◽  
Prior Information ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Estimators ◽  
Likelihood Ratio Tests ◽  
Bayesian Paradigm ◽  
Point Estimators ◽  
The Bayesian Approach

We review two foundations of statistical inference, the theory of likelihood and the Bayesian paradigm. We begin by applying principles of likelihood to generate point estimators (maximum likelihood estimators) and hypothesis tests (likelihood ratio tests). We then describe the Bayesian approach, focusing on two controversial aspects: the use of prior information and subjective probability. We illustrate these analyses using simple examples.

scholarly journals The Relationship between the Physical Quality of Rice and the Market Price: A Case Study in Savannakhet, Laos, Using a Bayesian Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 4151
Author(s):  
Kensuke Kawamura ◽  
Hidetoshi Asai ◽  
Shintaro Kobayashi ◽  
Soukasdachanh Souvannasing ◽  
Phonevilay Sinavong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Primary Role ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Physical Quality ◽  
Rice Grains ◽  
Rice Samples ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Bayesian Approach

The visual characteristics of rice grains play a primary role in determining the market price, and are used for grading systems in many rice-consuming countries. Laos is a rice-consuming country in Southeast Asia, but it does not have a functioning grading system. This study investigated the relationship between the physical quality of milled rice grains and the market price based on the Bayesian approach in Savannakhet, Laos. We collected 30 rice samples and their market prices from 12 shops, including imported rice from Thailand and Vietnam. The rice samples were scanned using a Grain Scanner, and the proportion of head rice (HR, %) was determined using physical traits (length, shape, color, etc.) based on the ‘Thai standard’ grading criteria. The relationship between the HR ratios and market prices was modeled with the Bayesian approach. For Laos’s product, the market price and HR ratio were lower than those for Thailand’s product. Based on the Bayesian framework, the results of Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations indicated that (1) the market price of Thailand’s product was mostly determined by the HR ratio, but other factors, such as aroma, were also suggested, especially in high-quality rice grains; (2) Laos’s product showed a positive correlation, but other factors had a greater influence on Laos’s product than Thailand’s product; and (3) no clear relationship was found in Vietnam’s product due to the limitation of a small number of samples, which was also considered a difference in consumer needs. These results indicated that the relationship between rice quality and market price for Laos’s product was unstable compared to that for Thailand’s product. To promote a more market-oriented agricultural sector, this pilot study has been broadened to examine other factors and extended to other cities or regions in Laos.

scholarly journals Analysis of a dose-response assay in Scaptotrigona bipunctata bees, Lepeletier, 1836 (Hymenoptera: Apidae) using the logistic regression model under the Bayesian approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. e57781
Author(s):  
Breno Gabriel da Silva ◽  
Paula Ribeiro Santos ◽  
Cristian Marcelo Villegas Lobos ◽  
Tamiris de Oliveira Diniz ◽  
Naiara Climas Pereira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Dose Response ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Prior Information ◽  
Alternative Approach ◽  
Dose Response Study ◽  
The Bayesian Approach

This paper shows the results of a dose-response study in Scaptotrigona bipunctata bees, Lepeletier, 1836 (Hymenoptera: Apidae) exposed to the insecticide Fastac Duo. The aim was to evaluate the lethal concentration that causes the death of 50% of bees (LC50) and investigate the odd of mortality after exposure to different concentrations, using the logistic regression model under the Bayesian approach. In this approach, it is possible to incorporate a prior information and gives more accurate inferential results. Three independent dose-response experiments were analyzed, dissimilar in their lead time according to guidelines from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), in which each assay contained four replicates at the concentration levels investigated, including control. Observing exposure to the agrochemical, it was identified that the higher the concentration, the greater the odd of mortality. Regarding the estimated lethal concentrations for each experiment, the following values were found, 0.03 g a.i. L-1, for 24 hours, 0.04 g a.i. L-1, for 48 hours and 0.06 g a.i. L-1 for 72 hours, showing that in experiments with longer exposure times there was an increase in LC50. Concluding, the study showed an alternative approach to classical methods for dose-response studies in Scaptotrigona bipunctata bees exposed to the insecticide Fastac Duo.

scholarly journals Using Bayesian Updating to Improve Decisions under Uncertainty

2020 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-40
Author(s):  
Brian T. McCann
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Bayesian Updating ◽  
Clear Understanding ◽  
Probability Estimates ◽  
New Information ◽  
Accurate Probability ◽  
Uncertain Outcomes ◽  
The Bayesian Approach

Decision making requires managers to constantly estimate the probability of uncertain outcomes and update those estimates in light of new information. This article provides guidance to managers on how they can improve that process by more explicitly adopting a Bayesian approach. Clear understanding and application of the Bayesian approach leads to more accurate probability estimates, resulting in better informed decisions. More importantly, adopting a Bayesian approach, even informally, promises to improve the quality of managerial thinking, analysis, and decisions in a variety of additional ways.

scholarly journals NORMATIVAS REGULATÓRIAS DOS CURSOS DE ENFERMAGEM A DISTÂNCIA: AÇÕES E REAÇÕES DO CONSELHO FEDERAL DE ENFERMAGEM

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dorisdaia Carvalho De Humerez ◽  
Manoel Carlos Neri Da Silva ◽  
Rosali Isabel Barduchi Ohl ◽  
Jose Vitor Jankevicius ◽  
Orlene Veloso Dias ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Distance Education ◽  
Nursing Education ◽  
Enseñanza Superior ◽  
Educación A Distancia ◽  
Government Websites ◽  
Distance Courses ◽  
Education Courses ◽  
Education In Brazil

Objetivo: Analisar a regulação da Educação a Distância em cursos de Enfermagem no Brasil e as ações e reações do Conselho Federal de Enfermagem. Metodologia: Trata-se de um estudo exploratório, descritivo e analítico, por meio da técnica de investigação documental em sites governamentais, elegendo o campo das políticas públicas brasileiras de educação de Enfermagem. Resultados: Frente aos inúmeros cursos, surgiu uma vasta legislação da Educação a Distância que, ao longo do tempo, flexibilizou os requisitos. Pode-se observar que há uma distorção entre o número de vagas na modalidade à distância e o número de matrículas efetivadas. Conclusão: A legislação sobre o ensino à distância no Brasil sofreu várias atualizações e flexibilizações. O Conselho Federal de Enfermagem expõe sua preocupação com a qualidade do ensino superior brasileiro, em especial com a modalidade à distância, inaceitável para a formação de profissionais de saúde, em especial de Enfermagem.Descritores: Enfermagem, Avaliação Educacional; Instituições de Ensino Superior; Educação em Enfermagem; Educação a Distância.REGULATORY STANDARDS OF NURSING DISTANCE COURSES: ACTIONS AND REACTIONS OF THE FEDERAL COUNCIL OF NURSINGObjective: To analyze the regulation of distance education courses in Nursing in Brazil and the actions and reactions of the Federal Nursing Council. Methodology: This is an exploratory, descriptive and analytical study, through the technique of documentary research in government websites, electing the field of Brazilian public policies of higher education. Results: In front of the numerous courses, a vast legislation appeared, seeking to demand flexible requirements in Distance Education. Conclusion: The Legislation on distance education in Brazil has undergone several updates and has become more flexible. The Federal Nursing Council expresses its concern about the quality of Brazilian higher education, especially with the modality in distance, unacceptable for the training of health professionals, especially Nursing.Descriptors: Nursing; Educational Evaluation; Higher Education Institutions; Nursing Education; Distance Education.NORMAS REGULADORAS DE CURSOS A DISTANCIA DE ENFERMERÍA: ACCIONES Y REACCIONES DEL CONSEJO FEDERAL DE ENFERMERÍAObjetivo: Analizar la regulación de la Educación a distancia en cursos de Enfermería en Brasil y las acciones y reacciones del Consejo Federal de Enfermería. Metodología: Se trata de un estudio exploratorio, descriptivo y analítico, por medio de la técnica de investigación documental en sitios gubernamentales, eligiendo el campo de las políticas públicas brasileñas de educación de la enseñanza superior. Resultados: Frente a los innumerables cursos, surgió una vasta legislación buscando exigir en la Educación a distancia requisitos flexibilizados. Conclusión: La Legislación sobre la enseñanza a distancia en Brasil sufrió varias actualizaciones y flexibilizaciones. El Consejo Federal de Enfermería expone su preocupación por la calidad de la enseñanza superior brasileña, en especial con la modalidad en la distancia, inaceptable para la formación de profesionales de salud, en especial de Enfermería.Descriptores: Enfermería; Evaluación Educativa; Instituciones de Enseñanza Superior; Educación en Enfermería; Educación a Distancia.

Bayesian Update With Fuzzy Information

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Beer ◽  
Matthias Stein
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Basic Requirement ◽  
Fuzzy Information ◽  
Inconsistent Information ◽  
Uncertainty Model ◽  
Bayesian Update ◽  
Available Information ◽  
The Bayesian Approach

A realistic quantification of all input information is a basic requirement in order to obtain useful results from engineering analyses. The concept of quantification and the associated uncertainty model have to be selected in agreement with the amount and quality of the available information. For inconsistent information, a distinction between probabilistic and non-probabilistic characteristics is beneficial. In this distinction, uncertainty refers to probabilistic characteristics and non-probabilistic characteristics are summarized as imprecision. When uncertainty and imprecision occur simultaneously, the uncertainty model fuzzy randomness appears useful. In this paper, the fuzzy probabilistic model is utilized in a Bayesian approach to take account of imprecision in data and in prior expert knowledge. The propagation of imprecision and uncertainty is investigated for selected cases. The Bayesian approach extended to inconsistent information is demonstrated by means of an example.

scholarly journals An improvement to the classification based on the measurement of the similarity quality using fuzzy relations

DYNA ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 82 (193) ◽  
pp. 70-76
Author(s):  
Yumilka Barbara Fernandez Hernandez ◽  
Yaima Filiberto ◽  
Mabel Frias ◽  
Rafael Bello ◽  
Yaile Caballero
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Sets ◽  
Fuzzy Sets Theory ◽  
Classification Rules ◽  
Fuzzy Relations ◽  
Original Algorithm ◽  
Decision Systems ◽  
Classic Problem ◽  
Discrete Domains ◽  
Sets Theory

The learning of classification rules is a classic problem of the automatic learning. The algorithm IRBASIR for the induction of classification rules based on similaridad relations allows to discover knowledge starting from decision systems that contain features with continuous and discrete domains. This algorithm has shown to obtain higher results than other well-known algorithms. In this article, several modifications to this algorithm based on the Fuzzy sets theory are proposed, taking into account the measure quality of similarity. The experimental results show that using the fuzzy sets theory allow to obtain higher results than the original algorithm.

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