Bayesian Update With Fuzzy Information

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Beer ◽  
Matthias Stein
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Basic Requirement ◽  
Fuzzy Information ◽  
Inconsistent Information ◽  
Uncertainty Model ◽  
Bayesian Update ◽  
Available Information ◽  
The Bayesian Approach

A realistic quantification of all input information is a basic requirement in order to obtain useful results from engineering analyses. The concept of quantification and the associated uncertainty model have to be selected in agreement with the amount and quality of the available information. For inconsistent information, a distinction between probabilistic and non-probabilistic characteristics is beneficial. In this distinction, uncertainty refers to probabilistic characteristics and non-probabilistic characteristics are summarized as imprecision. When uncertainty and imprecision occur simultaneously, the uncertainty model fuzzy randomness appears useful. In this paper, the fuzzy probabilistic model is utilized in a Bayesian approach to take account of imprecision in data and in prior expert knowledge. The propagation of imprecision and uncertainty is investigated for selected cases. The Bayesian approach extended to inconsistent information is demonstrated by means of an example.

scholarly journals Bayesian approach to evaluation of distance courses

2014 ◽  
Vol 55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonas Mockus ◽  
Irina Vinogradova
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Prior Information ◽  
Uncertain Data ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Fuzzy Sets Theory ◽  
Distance Courses ◽  
Sets Theory ◽  
Education Courses ◽  
The Bayesian Approach

Many real applications are using uncertain data This include expert decisions based on their subjective opinions, The uncertainty can be evaluated applying fuzzy sets theory or the methods of mathematical statistics. In this paper it is proposed to use the Bayesian approach by different distribution functions defining the expert opinion and some prior information. The results are illustrated evaluating the quality of distant education courses.

scholarly journals The Relationship between the Physical Quality of Rice and the Market Price: A Case Study in Savannakhet, Laos, Using a Bayesian Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 4151
Author(s):  
Kensuke Kawamura ◽  
Hidetoshi Asai ◽  
Shintaro Kobayashi ◽  
Soukasdachanh Souvannasing ◽  
Phonevilay Sinavong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Primary Role ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Physical Quality ◽  
Rice Grains ◽  
Rice Samples ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Bayesian Approach

The visual characteristics of rice grains play a primary role in determining the market price, and are used for grading systems in many rice-consuming countries. Laos is a rice-consuming country in Southeast Asia, but it does not have a functioning grading system. This study investigated the relationship between the physical quality of milled rice grains and the market price based on the Bayesian approach in Savannakhet, Laos. We collected 30 rice samples and their market prices from 12 shops, including imported rice from Thailand and Vietnam. The rice samples were scanned using a Grain Scanner, and the proportion of head rice (HR, %) was determined using physical traits (length, shape, color, etc.) based on the ‘Thai standard’ grading criteria. The relationship between the HR ratios and market prices was modeled with the Bayesian approach. For Laos’s product, the market price and HR ratio were lower than those for Thailand’s product. Based on the Bayesian framework, the results of Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations indicated that (1) the market price of Thailand’s product was mostly determined by the HR ratio, but other factors, such as aroma, were also suggested, especially in high-quality rice grains; (2) Laos’s product showed a positive correlation, but other factors had a greater influence on Laos’s product than Thailand’s product; and (3) no clear relationship was found in Vietnam’s product due to the limitation of a small number of samples, which was also considered a difference in consumer needs. These results indicated that the relationship between rice quality and market price for Laos’s product was unstable compared to that for Thailand’s product. To promote a more market-oriented agricultural sector, this pilot study has been broadened to examine other factors and extended to other cities or regions in Laos.

scholarly journals Using Bayesian Updating to Improve Decisions under Uncertainty

2020 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-40
Author(s):  
Brian T. McCann
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Bayesian Updating ◽  
Clear Understanding ◽  
Probability Estimates ◽  
New Information ◽  
Accurate Probability ◽  
Uncertain Outcomes ◽  
The Bayesian Approach

Decision making requires managers to constantly estimate the probability of uncertain outcomes and update those estimates in light of new information. This article provides guidance to managers on how they can improve that process by more explicitly adopting a Bayesian approach. Clear understanding and application of the Bayesian approach leads to more accurate probability estimates, resulting in better informed decisions. More importantly, adopting a Bayesian approach, even informally, promises to improve the quality of managerial thinking, analysis, and decisions in a variety of additional ways.

scholarly journals Selected by expertise? Scientific experts in German news coverage on Covid-19 compared to other pandemics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melanie Leidecker-Sandmann ◽  
Patrizia Attar ◽  
Markus Lehmkuhl
Keyword(s):  
Media Coverage ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
News Coverage ◽  
The Political ◽  
Scientific Experts ◽  
Scientific Expertise ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Source Of Information ◽  
Selection Of

At the time of the corona pandemic, the population has a great need for information. (Mass) Media try to provide the concerned citizens with answers to their pressing questions with the help of scientific actors and their expert knowledge. Scientific experts serve as an important source of information for journalists and for society. Therefore, it is of particular relevance to examine, which scientific actors are discussing scientific issues related to the Covid-19 pandemic publicly via media coverage. Of particular interest is a look at the scientific expertise of the so-called experts, because the quality of the available information stands and falls with it. Our study describes the journalistic selection of scientific experts in German news coverage on Covid-19 compared to other pandemics. We analyze, which experts get a chance to speak in media coverage, how diverse the spectrum of selected experts is and how their scientific expertise is to be assessed. Our findings show that the Covid-19 coverage is dominated by actors from the political executive and less than in previous pandemics by scientific experts. Further, the Corona debate is characterised by a greater diversity of expert voices than the previous pandemic debates and therefore less concentrated on a few individual scientists only. Further, the journalistic selection of scientific experts is biased in favour of those who have a high scientific expertise. On average, media coverage on the Covid-19 pandemic makes references to more reputable and acknowledged scientific experts compared to earlier pandemics.

scholarly journals Techniques for Mitigating the Effects of Smoke Taint While Maintaining Quality in Wine Production: A Review

Molecules ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
pp. 1672
Author(s):  
Ysadora A. Mirabelli-Montan ◽  
Matteo Marangon ◽  
Antonio Graça ◽  
Christine M. Mayr Marangon ◽  
Kerry L. Wilkinson
Keyword(s):  
Global Perspective ◽  
Wine Industry ◽  
Wine Production ◽  
Specific Data ◽  
Main Research ◽  
Initial Severity ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Available Information

Smoke taint has become a prominent issue for the global wine industry as climate change continues to impact the length and extremity of fire seasons around the world. Although the issue has prompted a surge in research on the subject in recent years, no singular solution has yet been identified that is capable of maintaining the quality of wine made from smoke-affected grapes. In this review, we summarize the main research on smoke taint, the key discoveries, as well as the prevailing uncertainties. We also examine methods for mitigating smoke taint in the vineyard, in the winery, and post production. We assess the effectiveness of remediation methods (proposed and actual) based on available research. Our findings are in agreement with previous studies, suggesting that the most viable remedies for smoke taint are still the commercially available activated carbon fining and reverse osmosis treatments, but that the quality of the final treated wines is fundamentally dependent on the initial severity of the taint. In this review, suggestions for future studies are introduced for improving our understanding of methods that have thus far only been preliminarily investigated. We select regions that have already been subjected to severe wildfires, and therefore subjected to smoke taint (particularly Australia and California) as a case study to inform other wine-producing countries that will likely be impacted in the future and suggest specific data collection and policy implementation actions that should be taken, even in countries that have not yet been impacted by smoke taint. Ultimately, we streamline the available information on the topic of smoke taint, apply it to a global perspective that considers the various stakeholders involved, and provide a launching point for further research on the topic.

scholarly journals The Bayesian Approach and the Results of the ISAR-REACT 5 Trial

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 231-232
Author(s):  
Adnan Kastrati ◽  
Alexander Hapfelmeier
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
The Bayesian Approach

A new Bayesian approach for QTL mapping of family data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daiane Aparecida Zuanetti ◽  
Luis Aparecido Milan
Keyword(s):  
Qtl Mapping ◽  
Random Effects ◽  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Variance Component ◽  
Mendelian Inheritance ◽  
Family Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Mendelian Segregation ◽  
Gaw17 Data ◽  
The Bayesian Approach

In this paper, we propose a new Bayesian approach for QTL mapping of family data. The main purpose is to model a phenotype as a function of QTLs’ effects. The model considers the detailed familiar dependence and it does not rely on random effects. It combines the probability for Mendelian inheritance of parents’ genotype and the correlation between flanking markers and QTLs. This is an advance when compared with models which use only Mendelian segregation or only the correlation between markers and QTLs to estimate transmission probabilities. We use the Bayesian approach to estimate the number of QTLs, their location and the additive and dominance effects. We compare the performance of the proposed method with variance component and LASSO models using simulated and GAW17 data sets. Under tested conditions, the proposed method outperforms other methods in aspects such as estimating the number of QTLs, the accuracy of the QTLs’ position and the estimate of their effects. The results of the application of the proposed method to data sets exceeded all of our expectations.

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