An analysis of the effectiveness of bankruptcy prediction models – an industry approach

Research background: Bankruptcy prediction models are frequently used in research. However, an industry approach is not often carried out. Due to this, this study included trends observable between the number of bankruptcies and its prediction by models. Purpose: The aim of the paper is to verify if changes in the number of actual bankruptcy in individual industries are properly predicted by the models. Also, if analyzed models are providing consistent information according to the risk of bankruptcy between industries. Research methodology: The data were collected from the Orbis database and the Coface reports. The period included in the study is 2014–2019. 5 Polish bankruptcy prediction models were used: these by D. Hadasik, E. Mączyńska and M. Zawadzki, M. Pogodzińska and S. Sojak, D. Wierzba and the Poznan one. Results: The analyzed models do not properly predict changes in the number of bankruptcy in individual industries, however, 3 out of 5 correctly predicted the trend for the entire sample. Analyzed models often provide inconsistent information. Hence, it seems sensible to use more than a few models in any further analyzes. Novelty: In the literature of the subject, there are often carried out analyses focused on the effectiveness of bankruptcy prediction models regarding individual companies. This research is focused on the prediction of changes in the number of companies to be considered as at bankruptcy risk between industries, and also on comparing these models.

A Note on Neutrosophic Soft Set With Rough Set

Rough set is a very powerful invention to the whole world for dealing with uncertain, incomplete and imprecise problems. Also soft set theory and neutrosophic set theory both are advance mathematical tools to handle these uncertain, incomplete, inconsistent information in a better way. The purpose of this article is to expand the scope of rough set, soft set and neutrosophic set theory. We have introduced the concept of neutrosophic soft set with roughness without using full soft set. Some definition, properties and examples have been established on neutrosophic soft rough set. Moreover, dispensable and equalities are written on roughness with neutrosophic soft set.

Indicators of Secretory Activation in Mothers of Preterm Very Low Birth Weight Infants

Background Inconsistent information exists regarding indicators of secretory activation in mothers delivering very low birth weight infants. Research aims To compare time to the onset of secretory activation using three separate indicators. A secondary aim examined the association between indicators of secretory activation and milk production. Methods Indicators of secretory activation included maternal perception, volume attainment (production of ≥ 20 mL in two consecutive expression sessions) and biomarkers (sodium and lactose) obtained at volume attainment. Milk production was measured on Days 1–7 and then weekly for 6 weeks. Results In 69 mothers of infants born ≤ 32 weeks’ gestation and < 1500 g, we found no correlation in time to secretory activation between indicators. Earlier volume attainment was associated with increased milk production on Days 1–7, 14, 21, and 28 (all p < .007). Participants who exhibited both normal lactose and sodium levels produced more milk on Days 28 and 42 ( p = .028 and .011), those with only normal lactose levels produced more on Day 42 ( p = .026) and those with only normal sodium levels on Day 28 ( p = .036). Earlier secretory activation by volume attainment was associated with increased expression frequency during Days 2–5 (all p < .014) and participants with normal biomarkers expressed more frequently during Days 2–5 (all p < .020). Conclusion Mothers of very low birth weight infants are at risk for delayed secretory activation, which may decrease their milk production. Frequent expression during the first 5 days postpartum may promote earlier secretory activation. Valid methods of determining secretory activation are necessary to develop interventions promoting earlier secretory activation.

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN NEGATIVE CAREER THOUGHTS AND SELF-EFFICACY WITH CAREER DECISION-MAKING DIFFICULTIES AMONG FIRST YEAR UNDERGRADUATE STUDENTS OF UPM

The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between negative career thoughts and self-efficacy with career decision-making difficulties among first-year undergraduate students of UPM. The sample for this study consisted of 368 first-year undergraduate students of UPM and participants were recruited using stratified random sampling. A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect information. Career Thoughts Inventory was utilized in this study to measure negative career thoughts. General Self-efficacy Scale was utilized to measure self-efficacy. Other than that, the Career Decision-Making Difficulties Questionnaire was utilized to measure career decision-making difficulties. The results revealed that most of the respondents had a high level of self-efficacy (62.2%). Pearson correlation analysis demonstrated that there was a positive significant relationship between negative career thoughts (decision-making confusion) and career decision-making difficulties (lack of information; r = 0.595, p < 0.01 and inconsistent information; r = 0.579, p < 0.01). Besides, there was also a significant positive relationship between negative career thoughts (commitment anxiety) and career decision-making difficulties (lack of information; r = 0.588, p < 0.01 and inconsistent information; r = 0.572, p < 0.01). In addition, there was a significant negative relationship between self-efficacy and career decision-making difficulties (lack of information; r = -0.388, p < 0.01, inconsistent information; r = -0.298, p < 0.01). Therefore, the findings of this study concluded that negative career thoughts and self-efficacy are important to understand the patterns of difficulties in career decision-making among first-year undergraduate students of UPM. Furthermore, further research could be expanded in different academic institutions in another region with a bigger sample to promote a better generalization of findings and yield more reliable data.

Easy to Make, Hard to Revise: Updating Spontaneous Trait Inferences in the Presence of Trait-Inconsistent Information

Previous research has shown that perceivers spontaneously form trait inferences from others' behaviors received at a single point in time. The present work examined the persistence of spontaneous trait inferences (STIs) in the presence of trait-inconsistent information about others. We hypothesized that STIs should be resistant to change over time and in the presence of new trait-inconsistent information due to perceivers forming and storing multiple STIs independently in memory. Consistently, Experiments 1a and 1b showed that initial STIs were not affected by new trait-inconsistent information. Experiments 2 and 3 revealed that STIs were persistent over 48 hours. Two experiments also tested memory reconsolidation as a possible mechanism of updating first impressions. While STIs were not substantially affected, spontaneous goal inferences (SGIs) were elevated among those with a better explicit memory of behaviors after learning trait-inconsistent information following a memory reactivation procedure. Implications of these findings on impression formation and updating processes are discussed.

Bilattice Logic for Rough Sets

Rough set theory is studied to manage uncertain and inconsistent information. Because Pawlak’s decision logic for rough sets is based on the classical two-valued logic, it is inconvenient for handling inconsistent information. We propose a bilattice logic as the deduction basis for the decision logic of rough sets to address inconsistent and ambiguous information. To enhance the decision logic to bilattice semantics, we introduce Variable Precision Rough Set (VPRS). As a deductive basis for bilattice decision logic, we define a consequence relation for Belnap’s four-valued semantics and provide a bilattice semantic tableau TB4 for a deduction system. We demonstrate the soundness and completeness of TB4 and enhance it with weak negation.

Reverse triple I method based on single valued neutrosophic fuzzy inference

The theory of single valued neutrosophic sets, which is a generalization of intuitionistic fuzzy sets, is more capable of dealing with inconsistent information in practice. In this paper, we propose reverse triple I method under single valued neutrosophic environment. Firstly, we give the definitions of single valued neutrosophic t-representation t-norms and single valued neutrosophic residual implications. Secondly, we develop a formula for calculating single valued neutrosophic residual implications. Then we propose reverse triple I method based on left-continuous single valued neutrosophic t-representation t-norms and its solutions. Lastly, we discuss the robustness of reverse triple I method based on the proposed similarity measure.

Risk-Intolerant but Risk-Taking—Towards a Better Understanding of Inconsistent Survey Responses of the Euro Area Households

The sustainable development of the EU internal market for retail financial services is based on the rules of ‘suitability’, ‘know your client’, and ‘know your product’. The rules ensure that financial institutions (including banks) offer retail clients only products and services that are adequate to their purposes and preferences, including risk tolerance. Our study, however, concerns households for which the above rules are not valid, since they declare risk aversion and possess risky assets. According to the European Union Markets in Financial Instruments Directive and Regulation (MiFID II and MiFIR), the inconsistent information they provide within survey questions should classify them to more compound suitability assessment procedures. In the study, we use nationally representative data for 16 euro area countries from the second wave of the Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey. Using logit regression, we identify sets of socio-demographic and socio-economic characteristics conducive to the possession of risky assets by risk-averse households in individual countries. To assess their similarity, we use the hierarchical taxonomic method with Ward’s formula. The results of the study showed that risky assets were primarily possessed by risk-averse households that were characterised by high income, including from self-employment, and reference persons having a university degree and at least 55 years of age. The significance of their other characteristics was mainly shaped at the national level. The clear similarity of sets of the characteristics was confirmed only for a few pairs of countries. The information inconsistency that may result from erroneous self-assessments of being risk-averse was recognised in all countries and most often concerned high-income households with reference persons being males with a university degree. In 11 countries, the reason for this inconsistency could also be the inadequacy of assets held, also among senior households. The results provide insights for practitioners and policy. Identification of households providing inconsistent information to financial institutions, with the recognition of its reasons based on easily verifiable characteristics, may prove helpful in suitability assessments. The results confirming the similarity of household profiles requiring special attention between countries may be useful for entities operating cross-border. Due to the collection of information on risk aversion based on the single question self-classification method, conclusions regarding the restrictions of its use should also be considered relevant. In turn, policy implications may relate to consumer protection, since significant fractions of risk-averse households indeed participate in risky assets. Moreover, in selected countries, the risk-averse senior households were recognised as susceptible to making wrong investment decisions.