scholarly journals The influence of globalization processes on the innovative development of the food industry of Ukraine in the phases of business cycles

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 63-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Balian ◽  
M. Sychevsky ◽  
O. Kovalenko ◽  
L. Yashchenko ◽  
S. Verbytskyi
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Food Industry ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Innovative Development ◽  
Business Climate ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Industry Sectors

Aim. One of the important problems in the development of the food industry in Ukraine is the infl uence of globalization processes, accompanied by cyclical development of the economy. The cycles are manifested in periodic ups and downs of the business climate, taking into account the infl uence of various factors (climate change, risks in agricultural production, legislative changes, etc.), i.e. when the economy seeks to fi nd equilibrium. Therefore, the identifi cation of fl uctuations in economic activity and, accordingly, changes in market conditions that arise as a reaction to the action of well-defi ned, predictable factors of the market environment are relevant and necessary. The purpose of the article is to reveal the infl uence of globalization processes and economic cyclicality on the innovative development of the food industry in Ukraine, to identify the phases of business cycles, to determine the criteria for the effective functioning of individual food industry sectors during periods of crisis and depression in order to develop effective tools for leveling and smoothing their consequences at different levels of management. Methods. Based on the application of classical and modern methods for assessing economic cycles, we developed a methodological approach to justifying the phases of the business cycle and identifying the development specifi cities of individual sectors of the food industry of Ukraine (meat processing, milk processing, baking, sugar production) in these phases. In the authors’ algorithm, at the appropriate stages of the study, the following methods were applied: factor analysis  to calculate the indicator of the business climate; smoothing time series  to identify individual phases of the business cycle; average values of growth rates  to summarize the characteristics of the phases of the business cycle and identify the characteristics of the development of food industry sectors of Ukraine in these phases. The primary data for the calculations were the data of global and national statistics. Results. It has been established that the consequences of the impact of globalization on the development of the food industry of Ukraine since the beginning of the new millennium are: changes in the industrial structure; its formation under the infl uence of an external market, where raw materials and primary processing products are most in demand; accelerated growth in consumer prices for food products, which does not correlate with real incomes of the population; expanding the monopolization of food markets; the imbalance of supply and demand, which leads to differences in the development of economic phenomena, in particular  in the innovative development of the food industry, etc. The study showed that the development of individual sectors of the food industry is affected by the cyclical development of the national economy. The periods of the business cycle phases for the Ukrainian economy (from 2002 to mid-2019) and their impact on the activity of the food industry are determined. It was established that during this period the Ukrainian economy went through 4 business cycles with fi ve major downturns and peaks in economic activity. It was revealed that a sign of its development is the presence of separate business cycles in which there is no depression phase. Conclusions. The assessment of the intensity of the development of the food industry sectors during the phases of business cycles gives grounds for the justifi cation of their slower innovative development. The main reasons for this phenomenon in the food industry are as follows: imbalance in supply and demand for goods; low purchasing power of the population; investing signifi cant amounts of fi nances in increasing production volumes, and not in innovative development, ineffi cient pricing policy. The methodological approach proposed in the article, based on the identifi ed signs of the phases of the business cycle, makes it possible to justify the problem periods of the food industry in the short term, as current problems signifi cantly affect the implementation of long-term plans. This confi rms the feasibility of applying the proposed methodological approach in further research.

Business-cycle fluctuations in economic activity

2021 ◽  
pp. 105-125
Author(s):  
Jesper Rangvid
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Growth Trend ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Two Phases

This chapter explains what the business cycle is and what causes business-cycle fluctuations. We call fluctuations in economic activity around the long-term growth trend ‘the business cycle’. The business cycle consists of two phases. The first is a period of strong economic activity. The second, following the first, is a period of weak economic activity. We call the first phase of the business cycle an ‘expansion’ and the second phase a ‘contraction’ or ‘recession’. The chapter explains what causes business cycles, and examines the empirical evidence on the lengths and strengths of the typical business cycle. It finds that expansions typically last longer than recessions. The chapter also shows that the length of expansions has increased during recent decades.

scholarly journals Spurious synchronization of business cycles – Dynamic correlation analysis of V4 countries

2012 ◽  
Vol 60 (4) ◽  
pp. 181-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Svatopluk Kapounek ◽  
Jitka Poměnková
Keyword(s):  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Time Domain ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Dynamic Correlation ◽  
Currency Area ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Visegrád Countries

The purpose of our paper is to define rules for decision of existence spurious synchronization of countries within the currency area. We devote this new methodological approach from an empirical research based on the variability of a dynamic correlation (correlation in frequency domain). We analyze the dynamic correlation in full range and in the business cycle frequencies as well. We also consider lags in economic activity co-movements. Contrary to the standard approach we show its insufficiency especially in case of time domain instruments. For this goal GDP values in quarters of the four Visegrad countries and the Eurozone in the period 1997/Q1–2011/Q1 are used.

EXPANSIONS AND RECESSIONS IN THE MEXICAN STATES: A CLASSICAL BUSINESS CYCLES APPROACH

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 32
Author(s):  
Pablo Mejía-Reyes
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Clear Cut ◽  
Output Measure ◽  
Central Regions ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
National Business ◽  
Cycle Indicator

This paper aims to document expansions and recessions characteristics for 17 states of Mexico over the period 1993-2006 by using a classical business cycle approach. We use the manufacturing production index for each state as the business cycle indicator since it is the only output measure available on a monthly basis. According to this approach, we analyse asymmetries in mean, volatility and duration as well as synchronisation over the business cycle regimes (expansions and recessions) for each case. Our results indicate that recessions are less persistent and more volatile (in general) than expansions in most Mexican states; yet, there is no clear cut evidence on mean asymmetries. In turn, there seems to be strong links between the business cycle regimes within the Northern and Central regions of the country and between states with similar industrialisation patterns, although it is difficult to claim that a national business cycle exists.

From the Business Cycle to the Output Cycle: Predicting South African Economic Activity

2017 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-133
Author(s):  
C. Vermeulen ◽  
F. Joubert ◽  
A. Bosch ◽  
J. Rossouw
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
South African ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
The Business Cycle

Pandemic Shock: Methodological Explanation and New Public Contract

2021 ◽  
Vol 96 (3) ◽  
pp. 45-52
Author(s):  
I. V. Zikunova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
State Regulation ◽  
Business Cycle Theory ◽  
Business Operations ◽  
New Public ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Post Industrial

The pandemic shock manifested itself as a new phenomenon in the socio-economic dynamics, and thus necessitated a special reflection in the framework of the business cycle theory. In this study we present the results of theoretical positioning of a pandemic shock using the methodology of business cycle theory, in particular, using the principles of the impulse approach. To formulate conclusions, empirical data were used on the processes observed in 2020 in Russia, in the subsystems of supply and demand, in the system of state regulation. The conclusions obtained by the author can be used as sources for the formation of applied scientific problems for the continuation of research within the framework of the theory of business cycle at the post-industrial stage of socio-economic development. These conclusions include a statement of changes in the organization of labor and business operations, changes in the balance of mutual obligations of the parties to a social contract, conclusions about the emergence of new factors in the quality of human development.

Introduction

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Jesper Rangvid
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Final Part ◽  
Stylized Facts ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Key Concepts ◽  
The Business Cycle

Chapter 1 contains an overview of the book. Part I introduces key concepts, definitions, and stylized facts regarding long–run economic growth and stock returns.Part II analyses the relation between economic growth and stock returns in the long run. Part III examines the shorter-horizon relation between economic growth and stock returns: the relation over the business cycle. Part IV explains how to make reasonable projections for economic activity, both for the short and the long run. Part V deals with expected future stock returns. The final part, a short one including one chapter only, explains how one can use the insights from the book when making investments.

scholarly journals Business cycles and earnings management strategies: a study in Brazilian public firms,

2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (80) ◽  
pp. 216-233 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edilson Paulo ◽  
Renato Henrique Gurgel Mota
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Earnings Management ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Accounting Information ◽  
Discretionary Accruals ◽  
Real Earnings Management ◽  
Economic Environment ◽  
Opportunistic Behavior ◽  
The Business Cycle

ABSTRACT This study contributes to the literature dealing with the influence of macroeconomic factors on accounting information quality, since it analyzes the earnings management strategies of firms, specifically identifying different discretionary behaviors among economic cycles: 1) different levels of earnings management through accruals between phases of the business cycle, and 2) the trade-off between earnings management through accruals and real earnings management. The results indicate that the accounting information reported should be analyzed with greater caution by its users, especially in periods of great economic oscillations, when managers can increase or reduce opportunistic behavior. The research population comprised non-financial companies with shares traded on the São Paulo Stock, Commodities, and Futures Exchange (BM&FBovespa) and the sample was composed of 247 firms per year, covering the period from 2000 to 2015 and totaling 2,501 observations. The phases of business cycles were used as a proxy for the economic environment and were based on Schumpeter's (1939) study, which divides an business cycle into four distinct phases: expansion, recession, contraction, and recovery. Discretionary accruals were estimated according to the Pae (2005) and Paulo (2007) models. Real earnings management was estimated as described by Roychowdhury (2006), using only the abnormal behavior of production costs and operational decisions. The results of this research show that earnings management strategies, using either accruals or real manipulation, as well as the choice between these strategies, are impacted by the economic environment. The evidence suggests that managers have different opportunistic behavior in each phase of the business cycle. Specifically, they increase the level of discretionary accruals in contractionary phases and reduce it during recoveries, while they manage earnings downwards via real manipulation in recessions and contractions.

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