scholarly journals Models of space object motion based on time series of TLE-elements

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-62
Author(s):  
O.P. Sarychev ◽  
◽  
B.A. Perviy ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Statistical Method ◽  
Space Debris ◽  
Launch Vehicle ◽  
Object Motion ◽  
Autoregressive Models ◽  
Space Object ◽  
Space Objects ◽  
Time Determination

Timely detection of changes in the characteristics of space hardware objects during their long-term operation is one of the main tasks in the development and study of onboard systems that maintain the efficiency of their operation. This paper presents a statistical method for simulating the motion of space objects (spacecraft and used launch vehicle stages) in the class of autoregressive models. The method allows one to improve the quality of description and prediction of the motion of space objects based on simulating time series of their TLE-elements (two-line orbital element sets). The purpose of this work is to increase the accuracy of mathematical models of the observed motion of space objects in the problems of deorbit time determination, satellite collision prediction, and space debris cataloging. The paper presents a system for simulating the motion of space objects, which allows one to determine an optimal amount of learning samples in simulating time series of TLE elements, determine the order of autoregression and find an optimal model structure for each variable element, identify model parameters in conditions of unequally spaced observations, identify features of the time behavior of the root-mean-square errors of the constructed autoregressive models on the basis of dividing the initial time series of TLE-elements into successive learning intervals, and obtain predictive estimates of the values of variable elements. The proposed statistical method of space object motion simulation can be recommended to describe and predict the motion of spacecraft and used launch vehicle stages represented as time series of TLE-elements (which are publicly available and regularly updated). The application of the proposed statistical method will increase the accuracy of mathematical models of the observed motion of space objects in the problems of deorbit time determination, satellite collision prediction, and space debris cataloging.

scholarly journals Methods of validation of the ballistic structure of space surveillance system orbital segment

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 155-165
Author(s):  
I. A. Fadin ◽  
S. V. Yanov ◽  
O. A. Samokhvalov
Keyword(s):  
Surveillance System ◽  
Space Debris ◽  
Target Function ◽  
Object Motion ◽  
Space Object ◽  
Scientific Methods ◽  
Optimization Task ◽  
Space Objects ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Orbital Constellation

Space activity brought about the space debris problem that constitutes a threat to active spacecraft. Nowadays the most efficient way of spacecraft protection against space debris is choosing the appropriate orbit parameters to prevent collisions of space objects. To do this one should know the parameters of motion of space objects (SO). At present the task of determining SO orbit parameters is solved be means of the space surveillance system (SSS). The Russian space surveillance system includes only ground based facilities located on the territory of the Russian Federation and Tajikistan. This fact does not allow determining the parameters of SO motion over the Western and Southern Hemispheres. The task of monitoring SO in low orbits (up to 2000 km height) is of particular importance because there have already been collisions that generated a lot of debris which, in their turn, pose a new threat to Russian active spacecraft. To prevent prospective threats to the Russian orbital constellation associated with possible generation of new debris as a result of impacts or spontaneous separation (because of an explosion, for instance) of active SOs the parameters of motion of newly emerging space objects need to be determined quickly and efficiently. We propose to solve the task of online monitoring of space object motion by creating an orbital segment of SSS. The creation of the new system is to be preceded by the development of scientific methods for justification of its ballistic structure. This article presents a method based on the solution of an optimization task, where the target function is the dependence of the required number of measurer spacecraft on the quality indicators of space surveillance.

scholarly journals REVEALING CHANGES IN THE SPACE OBJECTS MOTION DESCRIBED BY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (133) ◽  
pp. 79-88
Author(s):  
Oleksandr Sarychev ◽  
Bogdan Perviy
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Autoregressive Models ◽  
Spacecraft Motion ◽  
Term Operation ◽  
Space Objects

The task of revealing changes in the non-functioning Sich-2 spacecraft motion is completed using autoregressive models and time series of TLE elements. The developed method is recomended to use for revealing changes in the movement of space objects during their long-term operation.

scholarly journals Autoregression models of large space debris motion

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (131) ◽  
pp. 137-148
Author(s):  
Oleksandr Sarichev ◽  
Bogdan Perviy
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Method ◽  
Space Debris ◽  
Autoregressive Models ◽  
Large Space ◽  
Autoregression Models

A statistical method was developed for modeling the large space debris motion in the class of autoregressive models. The method improves the quality of description and forecasting of the movement of large fragments of space debris based on their TLE elements.

scholarly journals AUTOREGRESSION MODELS OF SPACE OBJECTS MOVEMENT REPRESENTED BY TLE ELEMENTS

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (127) ◽  
pp. 103-116
Author(s):  
Aleksandr Sarichev ◽  
Bogdan Perviy
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Autoregressive Model ◽  
Autoregressive Models ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Element Determination ◽  
Training Samples ◽  
Space Objects ◽  
The Mean

The developed method, which is a modification of the previously developed methods for constructing autoregressive models, is used to simulate the motion of space objects in the time series of their TLE elements. The modeling system has been developed that includes: determining the optimal volume of training samples in modeling time series of TLE elements; determination of the autoregression order for each variable (TLE element); determination of the optimal structure and identification of the parameters of the autoregressive model for each variable; identification of patterns of evolution of the mean square error of autoregressive models in time based on the modeling of time series of TLE elements according to the principle of "moving interval".

Assessment perspectives for the orbital utilization of space debris

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 3-12
Author(s):  
A.P. Alpatov ◽  
◽  
Yu.M. Goldshtein ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Space Debris ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Space Object ◽  
Near Earth Space ◽  
Space Objects ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Earth Orbits ◽  
Space Activities ◽  
Great Danger

Technogenic pollution of the near-Earth space by fragments of space debris of various sizes significantly limits the possibilities for implementing space activities and represents a great danger to objects on Earth. Low orbits with heights up to 2000 km are particularly heavily clogged. The Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee recommends removing fragments of space debris from the area of working orbits. Currently, promising ways of space debris removing are considered: descent into the Earth’s atmosphere, relocation to an orbit with a lifetime less than twenty-five years, relocation to an utilization orbit, and orbital disposal. Orbital utilization considers space debris as a resource for the industry in orbit. The objectives of the article are to assess the perspectives for the orbital utilization of space debris and to develop a method for choosing the number and placement of safe recycling orbits in the area of low near-Earth orbits. The paper analyses the prospects for the use of orbital utilization of space debris and the assessment of the possibilities of using orbital storage and subsequent reuse of dismantled space objects, instruments and materials. A number of problems of planning and organizing the orbital utilization of space debris are formulated and solved. A method for determining safe orbits of space debris utilization in the area of low near-Earth orbits based on a criteria system developed. Using the developed method and software package, the possible orbits of space debris utilization in the area of low near-Earth orbits are determined. The lifetime of a space object in the utilization orbit, the stability of the orbit of the utilization at a long time interval, and the energy consumptions for transferring the space object from the working orbit to the utilization orbit are estimated. The novelty of the obtained results consists in the development of a clustering technique for the orbits of utilized space debris objects and the development of a technique for selecting a possible orbit for the utilization of space debris in the area of low near-Earth orbits. The results obtained can be used in the planning and organization of the orbital utilization of space debris.

scholarly journals Space Object Detection in Video Satellite Images Using Motion Information

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xueyang Zhang ◽  
Junhua Xiang ◽  
Yulin Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Object Detection ◽  
Satellite Image ◽  
Detection Algorithm ◽  
Object Motion ◽  
Attitude Motion ◽  
Motion Information ◽  
Space Object ◽  
Satellite Attitude ◽  
Space Objects ◽  
Previous Frame

Compared to ground-based observation, space-based observation is an effective approach to catalog and monitor increasing space objects. In this paper, space object detection in a video satellite image with star image background is studied. A new detection algorithm using motion information is proposed, which includes not only the known satellite attitude motion information but also the unknown object motion information. The effect of satellite attitude motion on an image is analyzed quantitatively, which can be decomposed into translation and rotation. Considering the continuity of object motion and brightness change, variable thresholding based on local image properties and detection of the previous frame is used to segment a single-frame image. Then, the algorithm uses the correlation of object motion in multiframe and satellite attitude motion information to detect the object. Experimental results with a video image from the Tiantuo-2 satellite show that this algorithm provides a good way for space object detection.

METHOD FOR ESTIMATING PARAMETERS OF GENERALIZED MODEL OF LUMINOSITY OF SPACE OBJECTS BASED ON DATA FROM DIFFERENT RANGES

2018 ◽  
pp. 57-62
Author(s):  
E. I. Gundrova ◽  
A. P. Lukyanov ◽  
A. V. Pruglo ◽  
S. S. Ravdin
Keyword(s):  
Phase Angle ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Model Data ◽  
Space Object ◽  
Distribution Law ◽  
Generalized Model ◽  
Measurement Results ◽  
Space Objects ◽  
Reference Distance

Previously, the authors have proposed a generalized model for estimating the distribution law parameters of luminosity of space objects, assuming that not only successful but also unsuccessful measurement results are taken into account. Estimation was done on the data of observations under similar conditions: phase angle, range, sensibility of the telescope. The algorithm under such limitations was tested on model data and real measurements. Therefore, obtained results showed that algorithm did not fit for cases of changing range of space objects. In this work, the new algorithm, that allows to merge information from different ranges to the observed space object, is proposed. In this case, luminosity values are reduced to the ones at a reference distance of 1000 km considering sensibility of the telescope. To obtain estimates of the parameters the Cramer-Mises-Smirnov criterion is used. This algorithm was tested on model data and results of its work on real data were obtained. The data showed correct work of the algorithm and also confirmed the practicability of organization the registration of unsuccessful measurements.

scholarly journals The Ad Hoc Back-End of the BIRALET Radar to Measure Slant-Range and Doppler Shift of Resident Space Objects

Electronics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 577
Author(s):  
Luca Schirru ◽  
Tonino Pisanu ◽  
Angelo Podda
Keyword(s):  
Doppler Shift ◽  
Space Debris ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Low Earth Orbit ◽  
Slant Range ◽  
Radar Systems ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Space Objects ◽  
Resident Space Objects ◽  
Potential Issue

Space debris is a term for all human-made objects orbiting the Earth or reentering the atmosphere. The population of space debris is continuously growing and it represents a potential issue for active satellites and spacecraft. New collisions and fragmentation could exponentially increase the amount of debris and so the level of risk represented by these objects. The principal technique used for the debris monitoring, in the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) between 200 km and 2000 km of altitude, is based on radar systems. The BIRALET system represents one of the main Italian radars involved in resident space objects observations. It is a bi-static radar, which operates in the P-band at 410–415 MHz, that uses the Sardinia Radio Telescope as receiver. In this paper, a detailed description of the new ad hoc back-end developed for the BIRALET radar, with the aim to perform slant-range and Doppler shift measurements, is presented. The new system was successfully tested in several validation measurement campaigns, the results of which are reported and discussed.

scholarly journals Wasserstein Autoregressive Models for Density Time Series

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao Zhang ◽  
Piotr Kokoszka ◽  
Alexander Petersen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Autoregressive Models
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