Projected impact of global warming on the distribution of two pocket mouse species with implications on the conservation of Heteromys nelsoni (Rodentia: Heteromyidae)

We explain through potential distributions and changes in altitudinal variation, the possible impacts of climate change in an endangered micro-endemic rodent of Mexico with narrow altitudinal range, Heteromys nelsoni and a rodent with a wide distributional and altitudinal range, Heteromys goldmani. We obtained historical and current records of both Heteromys species. Potential distribution models were generated using Maxent, including altitudes for each species and bioclimatic layers. We determined the Extent of Occurrence and Area of Occupancy for H. nelsoni according to the criteria of the IUCN in order to generate information about its risk status. The altitude is not a variable that determines a shift in the distribution caused by climate change. In contrast, the temperature and precipitation are important for the potential distribution of both Heteromys species. The future changes in climatic conditions will reduce the area of suitable habitat for H. nelsoni and will favor the presence of H. goldmani. The distribution surface is not greater than 33.44 km2 for H. nelsoni. Therefore, is urgent to re-evaluate their conservation status by the IUCN, mainly in its B criterion, and to take specific actions for their conservation. We suggest the creation of a terrestrial protected area.

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Endemic Juniperus Montane Species Facing Extinction Risk under Climate Change in Southwest China: Integrative Approach for Conservation Assessment and Prioritization

Biology ◽

10.3390/biology10010063 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 63

Author(s):

Mohammed A. Dakhil ◽

Marwa Waseem A. Halmy ◽

Walaa A. Hassan ◽

Ali El-Keblawy ◽

Kaiwen Pan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Extinction Risk ◽

In Situ Conservation ◽

Integrative Approach ◽

Conservation Assessment ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Area Of Occupancy ◽

Annual Range ◽

The Impact

Climate change is an important driver of biodiversity loss and extinction of endemic montane species. In China, three endemic Juniperus spp. (Juniperuspingii var. pingii, J.tibetica, and J.komarovii) are threatened and subjected to the risk of extinction. This study aimed to predict the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species under climate change and dispersal scenarios, to identify critical drivers explaining their potential distributions, to assess the extinction risk by estimating the loss percentage in their area of occupancy (AOO), and to identify priority areas for their conservation in China. We used ensemble modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change and project AOO. Our results revealed that the projected AOOs followed a similar trend in the three Juniperus species, which predicted an entire loss of their suitable habitats under both climate and dispersal scenarios. Temperature annual range and isothermality were the most critical key variables explaining the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species; they contribute by 16–56.1% and 20.4–38.3%, respectively. Accounting for the use of different thresholds provides a balanced approach for species distribution models’ applications in conservation assessment when the goal is to assess potential climatic suitability in new geographical areas. Therefore, south Sichuan and north Yunnan could be considered important priority conservation areas for in situ conservation and search for unknown populations of these three Juniperus species.

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Current and future suitable habitat areas for Nasuella olivacea (Gray, 1865) in Colombia and Ecuador and analysis of its distribution across different land uses

Biodiversity Data Journal ◽

10.3897/bdj.8.e49164 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 ◽

Author(s):

Pablo Medrano-Vizcaíno ◽

Patricia Gutiérrez-Salazar

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Wildlife Conservation ◽

Distribution Patterns ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Ecological Niche Models

Nasuella olivacea is an endemic mammal from the Andes of Ecuador and Colombia. Due to its rarity, aspects about its natural history, ecology and distribution patterns are not well known, therefore, research is needed to generate knowledge about this carnivore and a first step is studying suitable habitat areas. We performed Ecological Niche Models and applied future climate change scenarios (2.6 and 8.5 RCP) to determine the potential distribution of this mammal in Colombia and Ecuador, with current and future climate change conditions; furthermore, we analysed its distribution along several land covers. We found that N. olivacea is likely to be found in areas where no records have been reported previously; likewise, climate change conditions would increase suitable distribution areas. Concerning land cover, 73.4% of N. olivacea potential distribution was located outside Protected Areas (PA), 46.1% in Forests and 40.3% in Agricultural Lands. These findings highlight the need to further research understudied species, furthering our understanding about distribution trends and responses to changing climatic conditions, as well as informig future PA designing. These are essential tools for supporting wildlife conservation plans, being applicable for rare species whose biology and ecology remain unknown.

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Modelling the Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Endangered Cypripedium japonicum in China

Forests ◽

10.3390/f12040429 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (4) ◽

pp. 429

Author(s):

Yadong Xu ◽

Yi Huang ◽

Huiru Zhao ◽

Meiling Yang ◽

Yuqi Zhuang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Environmental Variables ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Species Distribution Model ◽

Characteristic Curve ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Distribution Model ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Mountainous Area ◽

The Impact

Cypripedium japonicum is an endangered terrestrial orchid species with high ornamental and medicinal value. As global warming continues to intensify, the survival of C. japonicum will be further challenged. Understanding the impact of climate change on its potential distribution is of great significance to conserve this species. In this study, we established an ensemble species distribution model based on occurrence records of C. japonicum and 13 environmental variables to predict its potential distribution under current and future climatic conditions. The results show that the true skill statistic (TSS), Cohen’s kappa statistic (Kappa), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of the ensemble model were 0.968, 0.906, and 0.995, respectively, providing more robust predictions. The key environmental variables affecting the distribution of C. japonicum were the precipitation in the warmest quarter (Bio18) and the mean temperature in the driest quarter (Bio9). Under future climatic conditions, the total suitable habitat of C. japonicum will increase slightly and tend to migrate northwestward, but the highly suitable areas will be severely lost. By 2070, the loss of its highly suitable habitat area will reach 57.69–72.24% under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 respectively, and the highly suitable habitats in Zhejiang and Anhui will almost disappear. It is noteworthy that the highly suitable habitat of C. japonicum has never crossed the Qinba mountainous area during the migration process of the suitable habitat to the northwest. Meanwhile, as the best-preserved area of highly suitable habitat for C. japonicum in the future, the Qinba mountainous area is of great significance to protect the wild germplasm resources of C. japonicum. In addition, we found that most of the changes predicted for 2070 will already be seen in 2050; the problem of climate change may be more urgent than it is believed.

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Potential distribution of Artemisia annua L.under climate change

10.22541/au.161476488.83887871/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Hongjun Jiang ◽

Ting Liu ◽

Shiping Gao ◽

Ruijun Wang ◽

Ruchun Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Artemisia Annua ◽

Dominant Factor ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Ensemble Model ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Ensemble Models ◽

The Future ◽

Occurrence Records

Aim:Artemisia annua L. is the one and only original plant used to isolate artemisinin which is a highly effective remedy to fight malaria. Climate change leads to change of distribution and suitable range for many species and A. annua is no exception. However, it is not clear that the potential distribution and suitable range change of this unique plant under climate change. Therefore, we present this research to study its change in the future. Location: Global. Methods: Since the accuracy of species distribution models was affected by occurrence records and environmental variables, 1062 presence records and 7 variables were picked out to build ensemble models with 10 different algorithms by means of biomod2 under current and future climate scenarios. Results: At present, except SRE, the AUC values of the rest models were greater than 0.8, and the TSS values were greater than 0.6, the values of ensemble model were 0.968 and 0.826 respectively. Mean temperature of driest quarter was the dominant factor to shape the range of A. annua and its optimum interval ranged from 4.8 to 23.3ºC. The high suitable habitats of A. annua were mainly located in Eastern Asia, Western Europe, Central Europe. In the future, the high suitable area would decline at 15.55% to 25.87%. Main conclusions: Ensemble models showed it performed better than any the single one. At present, the high suitable habitat simulated by ensemble model was in accordance with the actual occurrence records. In the future, the high suitable habitat for A. annua would move northeast, and disappear in North America. They would increase with time under each SSP, but sharply decline while comparing with the current one. This study can be used to protect wild resource and guide cultivation for A. annua, which would make modest contribution to fight malaria.

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Conservation status of the threatened and endemic Rufous-throated Dipper Cinclus schulzi in Argentina

Bird Conservation International ◽

10.1017/s0959270919000467 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 30 (3) ◽

pp. 396-405

Author(s):

NATALIA POLITI ◽

SEBASTIÁN MARTINUZZI ◽

PATRICIA SARDINA ARAGÓN ◽

VERÓNICA MIRANDA ◽

SEBASTIÁN ALBANESI ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Population Size ◽

National Parks ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Conservation Status ◽

Iucn Red List ◽

Red List ◽

Mountain Forest ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Area Of Occupancy ◽

North Western

SummaryThe Rufous-throated Dipper Cinclus schulzi is endemic to the Southern Yungas of north-western Argentina and southern Bolivia. The species is categorised as ‘Vulnerable’ on the IUCN Red List on the basis of small population size and restricted range. The purpose of our study was to determine the distribution of potentially suitable habitat for the Rufous-throated Dipper, estimate its population size, and assess potential distribution within strict protected areas, in north-western Argentina. We surveyed 44 rivers in the Southern Yungas of Argentina from 2010 to 2013 to determine dipper density (i.e. the number of individuals detected per km surveyed). The dipper’s potential distribution was assessed using a maximum entropy modeling approach based on 31 occurrence points and eight bioclimatic and two topographic variables as predictors. The species is dependent on mountain forest rivers, so the potential distribution was restricted to rivers. We estimated dipper population size by multiplying density by the potential distribution along rivers. Finally, we calculated the extent of suitable habitat contained within the boundaries of Argentina´s National Parks. Dipper density was 0.94 ± 1.55 individuals/km. We estimate that within north-west Argentina there are ~2,815 km of river that are potential habitat, with an area of occupancy of 141 km2 and a population size of 2,657 ± 4,355 dippers. However, of this river extent, less than 5% is within National Parks. Our results highlight the need to create new and to enlarge existing National Parks that protect the potentially suitable habitat of the species. Although more information is needed for Bolivia, the country-level area of occupancy and population size of the dipper found in Argentina provides strong evidence that the IUCN Red List classification of this species as ‘Vulnerable’ is warranted.

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Predicting the potential distributions of the invasive cycad scaleAulacaspis yasumatsui(Hemiptera: Diaspididae) under different climate change scenarios and the implications for management

PeerJ ◽

10.7717/peerj.4832 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 6 ◽

pp. e4832 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

Jiufeng Wei ◽

Qing Zhao ◽

Wanqing Zhao ◽

Hufang Zhang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Invasive Pest ◽

Management Approach ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Mean Temperature ◽

In The Wild

Cycads are an ancient group of gymnosperms that are popular as landscaping plants, though nearly all of them are threatened or endangered in the wild. The cycad aulacaspis scale (CAS),Aulacaspis yasumatsuiTakagi (Hemiptera: Diaspididae), has become one of the most serious pests of cycads in recent years; however, the potential distribution range and the management approach for this pest are unclear. A potential risk map of cycad aulacaspis scale was created based on occurrence data under different climatic conditions and topology factors in this study. Furthermore, the future potential distributions of CAS were projected for the periods 2050s and 2070s under three different climate change scenarios (GFDL-CM3, HADGEM2-AO and MIROC5) described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The model suggested high environmental suitability for the continents of Asia and North America, where the species has already been recorded. The potential distribution expansions or reductions were also predicted under different climate change conditions. Temperature of Driest Quarter (Bio9) was the most important factor, explaining 48.1% of the distribution of the species. The results also suggested that highly suitable habitat for CAS would exist in the study area if the mean temperature of 15–20 °C in the driest quarter and a mean temperature of 25–28 °C the wettest quarter. This research provides a theoretical reference framework for developing policy to manage and control this invasive pest.

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Projections for Mexico’s Tropical Rainforests Considering Ecological Niche and Climate Change

Forests ◽

10.3390/f12020119 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (2) ◽

pp. 119

Author(s):

Antonio Fidel Santos-Hernández ◽

Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas ◽

Diódoro Granados-Sánchez ◽

Antonio Villanueva-Morales ◽

Malinali Santacruz-Carrillo

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ecological Niche ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Tropical Rainforest ◽

Statistical Significance ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Tropical Regions ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Ecological Importance

The tropical rainforest is one of the lushest and most important plant communities in Mexico’s tropical regions, yet its potential distribution has not been studied in current and future climate conditions. The aim of this paper was to propose priority areas for conservation based on ecological niche and species distribution modeling of 22 species with the greatest ecological importance at the climax stage. Geographic records were correlated with bioclimatic temperature and precipitation variables using Maxent and Kuenm software for each species. The best Maxent models were chosen based on statistical significance, complexity and predictive power, and current potential distributions were obtained from these models. Future potential distributions were projected with two climate change scenarios: HADGEM2_ES and GFDL_CM3 models and RCP 8.5 W/m2 by 2075–2099. All potential distributions for each scenario were then assembled for further analysis. We found that 14 tropical rainforest species have the potential for distribution in 97.4% of the landscape currently occupied by climax vegetation (0.6% of the country). Both climate change scenarios showed a 3.5% reduction in their potential distribution and possible displacement to higher elevation regions. Areas are proposed for tropical rainforest conservation where suitable bioclimatic conditions are expected to prevail.

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Combining conservation status and species distribution models for planning assisted colonisation under climate change

Journal of Ecology ◽

10.1111/1365-2745.13606 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Gabriele Casazza ◽

Thomas Abeli ◽

Gianluigi Bacchetta ◽

Davide Dagnino ◽

Giuseppe Fenu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Species Distribution ◽

Species Distribution Models ◽

Conservation Status ◽

Distribution Models

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Habitat associations and conservation status of an endemic forest dwarf chameleon (Bradypodion sp.) from South Africa

Oryx ◽

10.1017/s0030605306000408 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 40 (2) ◽

pp. 183-188 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Walter J. Reisinger ◽

Devi M. Stuart-Fox ◽

Barend F.N. Erasmus

Keyword(s):

South Africa ◽

Conservation Status ◽

Canopy Cover ◽

Iucn Red List ◽

Habitat Associations ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Area Of Occupancy ◽

Forest Interior ◽

Forest Remnants ◽

Iucn Red List Criteria

We quantified habitat associations and evaluated the conservation status of a recently identified, undescribed species of dwarf chameleon, Bradypodion sp. nov. Dhlinza, endemic to scarp forest remnants in KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa. At the microhabitat scale the Dhlinza dwarf chameleon was found more often in forest gaps and near paths than highly disturbed edges or forest interior. Chameleon presence was not explained by forest physiognomic variables such as vine cover, shrub and tree density, or canopy cover. Presence near gaps may be better explained by the combined effects of the thermal microenvironment and food availability. The species is moderately common where it occurs, with estimated densities of 4.7, 8.7 and 29.7 individuals per ha within forest interior, edges and gaps respectively. At the landscape scale, the chameleon occurs only in three remnant forests: the Dhlinza, Entumeni and Ongoye Forests. The species' extent of occurrence was estimated to be 88 km2 and its area of occupancy 49 km2. Based on the small area of remaining suitable habitat, this species meets the requirements for categorization as Endangered according to IUCN Red List criteria.

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