scholarly journals THE PROBLEM OF A LACK OF MATERIAL BEHAVIOUR DATA FOR RISK ASSESSMENT

2021 ◽  
pp. 43-56
Author(s):  
I. O. Bondarenko ◽  
L. О. Neduzha
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Original Method ◽  
Dynamic Loads ◽  
Railway Track ◽  
Material Structure ◽  
Material Behaviour ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Theoretical Support ◽  
Properties Of Materials ◽  
Over Time

Purpose. The main purpose of this work is to provide theoretical support for the need to expand data on changes in the material behaviour under dynamic loads when railway track risk assessment over time due to railway track elements deformability. Methodology. For the research, an original model of railway track design described using the original method based on the ability of elastic waves to propagate energy of power pulses in space and time, as well as a model describing materials as discrete substances were used. Findings. It has been established that the properties of the material affect the deformability of the elements and the design of the railway track; the main parameter in the study of deformability processes is time; material, as a substance, consists of atoms and molecules, and therefore is not continuous; internal physical processes determine changes in the behaviour of the material of an element. Originality. It has been proposed to develop classifications of changes in the physical properties of materials according to the probability of irreversible deformations and the impossibility of deformations, as well as classifications of changes in the mechanical properties of materials according to the probability of the defect appearance and changing the material structure. Practical value. The ability to simulate analytically any physical processes occurring inside elements due to the proposed method allows combining the influence of mechanical and physical effects into a single calculation. This enables to assess the probability of appearing defects in elements under certain dynamic loads when assessing the railway track risk over time due to railway track elements deformability.

scholarly journals An influence diagram for urban flood risk assessment through pluvial flood hazards under non-stationary conditions

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 276-286 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Åström ◽  
P. Friis Hansen ◽  
L. Garré ◽  
K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Railway Track ◽  
Influence Diagram ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
Stationary Conditions ◽  
Urban Flood Risk ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Flood Adaptation

Urban flooding introduces significant risk to society. Non-stationarity leads to increased uncertainty and this is challenging to include in actual decision-making. The primary objective of this study was to develop a risk assessment and decision support framework for pluvial urban flood risk under non-stationary conditions using an influence diagram (ID) which is a Bayesian network (BN) extended with decision and utility nodes. Non-stationarity is considered to be the influence of climate change where extreme precipitation patterns change over time. The overall risk is quantified in monetary terms expressed as expected annual damage. The network is dynamic in as much as it assesses risk at different points in time. The framework provides means for decision-makers to assess how different decisions on flood adaptation affect the risk now and in the future. The result from the ID was extended with a cost-benefit analysis defining the net benefits for the investment plans. We tested our framework in a case study where the risk for flooding was assessed on a railway track in Risskov, Aarhus. Drainage system improvements are planned for the area. Our study illustrates with the use of an ID how risk for flooding increases over time, and the benefits of implementing flood adaptation measures.

An Estimation of Endogenous Formaldehyde Exposure due to Consumption of Indonesian Opah Fish (Lampris guttatus) in Three Major Export Destination Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Umi Anissah ◽  
Ajeng Kurniasari Putri ◽  
Giri Rohmad Barokah
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Health Risks ◽  
Health Problem ◽  
International Market ◽  
Formaldehyde Content ◽  
Export Volume ◽  
Formaldehyde Exposure ◽  
Export Destination ◽  
Export Product ◽  
Over Time

The demand for Indonesian opah fish as an export product is increasing in the international market. Three countries (Malaysia, Mauritius, and Taiwan) recorded as the leading export destination of Indonesian opah fish. However, as the fish kept in a frozen state during export transportation, the endogenous formaldehyde may increase over time. This research presented the health risk assessment of population in the leading export destination countries that consumed opah fish from Indonesia. The study aimed to reveal the most potential export destination country that may accept an increasing volume of opah fish supply from Indonesia. The potency was determined from current export volume, the amount of endogenous formaldehyde content, and fish consumption at each country. The data were calculated with @Risk®7.0 software. The results showed opah fish consumed by Malaysian can be categorized as safe. Increasing the number of opah fish imported by Malaysian as much as six times, 12 times, 18 times, 27 and 36 times relatively does not cause health risks related to the presence of its endogenous formaldehyde. Moreover, opah fish consumed by Taiwanese is also safe, but with increasing the number of consumptions by more than 26 times is suspected to be potentially causing a health problem. However, opah fish consumed in Mauritius was categorized as unsafe and potentially caused health risks. Based on these results, Indonesia may consider to increase the opah fish export to Malaysia and Taiwan in the future.

A Tower of Tangled Histories: The Upper Silesia Tower in Poznań and the Making of an Unromantic Poland, 1911–1955

Slavic Review ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (3) ◽  
pp. 566-590
Author(s):  
Patryk Babiracki
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
National Identity ◽  
Cold War ◽  
World War I ◽  
Material Structure ◽  
World War ◽  
Upper Silesia ◽  
The Cold War ◽  
The City ◽  
Over Time

Engaging with regional, international, and spatial histories, this article proposes a new reading of the twentieth-century Polish past by exploring the vicissitudes of a building known as the Upper Silesia Tower. Renowned German architect Hans Poelzig designed the Tower for the 1911 Ostdeutsche Ausstellung in Posen, an ethnically Polish city under Prussian rule. After Poland regained its independence following World War I, the pavilion, standing centrally on the grounds of Poznań’s International Trade Fair, became the fair's symbol, and over time, also evolved into visual shorthand for the city itself. I argue that the Tower's significance extends beyond Posen/Poznań, however. As an embodiment of the conflicts and contradictions of Polish-German historical entanglements, the building, in its changing forms, also concretized various efforts to redefine the dominant Polish national identity away from Romantic ideals toward values such as order, industriousness, and hard work. I also suggest that eventually, as a material structure harnessed into the service of socialism, the Tower, with its complicated past, also brings into relief questions about the regional dimensions of the clashes over the meaning of modernity during the Cold War.

scholarly journals Fractal and Fractional Derivative Modelling of Material Phase Change

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 46
Author(s):  
Harry Esmonde
Keyword(s):  
Transfer Functions ◽  
Type Model ◽  
Material Structure ◽  
Iterative Approach ◽  
Response Functions ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Ethyl Vinyl ◽  
Solid Models ◽  
Liquid Type ◽  
Model Phase

An iterative approach is taken to develop a fractal topology that can describe the material structure of phase changing materials. Transfer functions and frequency response functions based on fractional calculus are used to describe this topology and then applied to model phase transformations in liquid/solid transitions in physical processes. Three types of transformation are tested experimentally, whipping of cream (rheopexy), solidification of gelatine and melting of ethyl vinyl acetate (EVA). A liquid-type model is used throughout the cream whipping process while liquid and solid models are required for gelatine and EVA to capture the yield characteristic of these materials.

An Examination of Changes in LSI-R Scores Over Time: Making the Case for Needs-Based Case Management

2011 ◽  
Vol 38 (6) ◽  
pp. 541-553 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melinda D. Schlager ◽  
Daniel Pacheco
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Case Management ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Community Corrections ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Level Of Service ◽  
Change Scores ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument ◽  
Over Time

The Level of Service Inventory—Revised (LSI-R) is an actuarially derived risk assessment instrument with a demonstrated reputation and record of supportive research. It has shown predictive validity on several offender populations. Although a significant literature has emerged on the validity and use of the LSI-R, no research has specifically examined change scores or the dynamics of reassessment and its importance with respect to case management. Flores, Lowenkamp, Holsinger, and Latessa and Lowenkamp and Bechtel, among others, specifically identify the importance and need to examine LSI-R reassessment scores. The present study uses a sample of parolees ( N = 179) from various community corrections programs that were administered the LSI-R at two different times. Results indicate that both mean composite and subcomponent LSI-R scores statistically significantly decreased between Time 1 and Time 2. The practical, theoretical, and policy implications of these results are discussed.

Risk Assessment Method for High-Speed Railway Track Based on Dynamically Weighted Acceleration

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 04021030
Author(s):  
Xiaohui Wang ◽  
Jianwei Yang ◽  
Jinhai Wang ◽  
Yanxue Wang ◽  
Fu Liu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Railway Track ◽  
High Speed Railway ◽  
Risk Assessment Method

scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems

2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-106
Author(s):  
Monika Kardach ◽  
Paweł Fuć ◽  
Marta Galant ◽  
Marta Maciejewska
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Human Activity ◽  
National Level ◽  
Original Method ◽  
Assessment Methods ◽  
Safety Issues ◽  
Aircraft Systems ◽  
Remotely Piloted Aircraft ◽  
Operating Instructions ◽  
Intensive Growth

Abstract The intensive growth in the popularity of Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems (RPAS) used for recreational, sporting and other purposes, may lead to an increase in accidents and incidents involving them. Therefore, it is advisable to raise the awareness of all users, related to safety issues, to harmonize standards and procedures applicable at international and national level. The article presents the legal conditions for unmanned operations and the risk assessment methods used in areas of human activity. On this basis, an original method of risk assessment in unmanned systems was proposed. The method can be part of the operating instructions of the RPAS operator. At the end, final conclusions were drawn up.

Aggressive Script Rehearsal in Adult Offenders: Characteristics and Association With Self-Reported Aggression

2021 ◽  
pp. 088626052110629
Author(s):  
Julia Hosie ◽  
Ashley Dunne ◽  
Katrina Simpson ◽  
Michael Daffern
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Aggressive Behavior ◽  
Violent Offenders ◽  
Assessment And Treatment ◽  
History Of ◽  
Over Time

This study explored the frequency, recency, content, severity, and targets of aggressive scripts reported by 94 incarcerated Australian males. The scripts of participants who reported a history of repeated and severe aggression were compared with the scripts of participants who reported a history of less severe and less frequent aggression. As hypothesized, participants with a history of more frequent and severe aggressive behavior reported more severe aggressive script content and more frequent script rehearsal. Furthermore, participants with a history of more frequent and severe aggressive behavior reported feelings of anticipation and excitement when they rehearsed aggressive scripts as well as an increase in the severity of aggressive scripts rehearsed over time. These results have important implications for risk assessment and treatment of violent offenders.

USING OF SOME HIGH TECHNOLOGIES AGAINST MODERN INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Александр Никифорович Валяев
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
International Terrorism ◽  
Special Session ◽  
Technology Center ◽  
New Methods ◽  
Wide Scale ◽  
Nuclear Environment ◽  
High Technologies ◽  
Over Time

Сегодня главными угрозами для существования всего человечества являются нарастание интенсивности, в том числе широкомасштабные природные и техногенные катастрофы и международный терроризм (МТ). Согласно прогнозам эта негативная тенденция со временем усилится в 21 веке. И к ним добавился очень опасный вирус COVID-19. Здесь мы представляем результаты наших МТ-исследований по результатам участия в международных тематических мероприятиях, таких как международные научные мероприятия НАТО и Международного научно-технического центра (МНТЦ), в том числе некоторые фрагменты моей работы в качестве члена Международного Научный комитет Международной конференции по моделированию и симуляции хаоса (CHAOS) и руководитель его специальной сессии: «Моделирование оценки рисков для ядерных, экологических и техногенных источников». Особое внимание уделяется организации и проведению подобных мероприятий, направленных на повышение их эффективности и проведения. Предоставляется информация о новых методах борьбы с МТ и предотвращения её возможных действий. Обсуждаются вопросы использования новых технологий, посвященных сегодняшней борьбе с COVID-19 и группировкам МТ Талибан в Афганистане. Today the main great treats for existence of all humanity are intensity increasing and including wide scale natural and manmade catastrophes and international terrorism (IT). According to forecasts, this negative trend will increase over time in the 21st century. And very dangerous COVID-19 was added to them. Here we present the results of our IT researches on the results of participation in international thematic events, such as the international scientific events of NATO and the International Science and Technology Center (ISTC), including some fragments of my work as the member of the International Scientific Committee of Chaotic Modeling and Simulation International Conference (CHAOS) and chief of its Special Session: “Modeling risk assessment for nuclear, environment and manmade sources”. The special attention is paid to the organization and conduct of such events aimed at increasing their effectiveness and implementation. Information is provided on new methods of combating IT and preventing its possible acts. Using of new technologies, devoted to today struggle against COVID-19 and IT Taliban groups in Afghanistan are under discussion.

scholarly journals Typhoon Disaster Risk Assessment Based on Emergy Theory: A Case Study of Zhuhai City, Guangdong Province, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 4212
Author(s):  
Zhicheng Gao ◽  
Rongjin Wan ◽  
Qian Ye ◽  
Weiguo Fan ◽  
Shihui Guo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Guangdong Province ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Related Data ◽  
Theoretical Support ◽  
Disaster Risk Assessment ◽  
Energy Flows ◽  
Emergy Theory ◽  
Typhoon Disaster

Typhoons and cyclones are the most impacting and destructive natural disasters in the world. To address the shortcomings of a previous typhoon disaster risk assessment (for example, human factors were involved in determining weights by importance, and this affected the experimental results), an emergy method, which converts energy flows of different properties into the same solar energy basis for a convenient comparison, was used to assess the risk of regional typhoon disasters. Typhoon disaster-related data from 2017 were used to develop an index system including resilience, potential strength, and sensitivity which was in turn applied to assess typhoon disaster risks in Zhuhai City, Guangdong Province, China. The results showed that the spatial distribution of the typhoon disaster risks in Zhuhai significantly differed, with the highest risk in Xiangzhou district, the second highest risk in Doumen district, and the lowest risk in Jinwan district. In addition, improving the level of regional resilience can effectively reduce risks from typhoon disasters. The application of the emergy method in a typhoon disaster risk assessment may provide some theoretical support for national and regional governmental strategies for disaster prevention and reduction.

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