Potential Opportunities for the Growth of the Russian Economy and the Monetary Policy of the Bank of Russia

The article presents an analysis of the draft «Main directions of the unified state monetary policy for 2021 and for the period 2022–2023» of the Bank of Russia, aimed at finding out whether the designed monetary policy will contribute to solving the main problems of the Russian economy. Leaning towards a generally negative answer to this question, the authors of the article, firstly, establish that some of these problems, including problems whose solution falls within the direct competence of the Bank of Russia, and which, accordingly, fall within the subject area of the regulatory instruments available to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, are clearly insufficiently worked out in the document or, worse, only simply indicated. Unfortunately, this also applies to the key reproduction tasks associated with ensuring rapid, sustainable and high-quality economic growth. Secondly, they fix the year that began in March 2021 new round of increase in the key rate of the Bank of Russia. Third, they emphasize the fact of the negative synergy of the Bank of Russia’s tight monetary policy and the Russian Ministry of Finance’s tight budget policy, designed for the period up to 2023. The article substantiates the need for a coordinated approach of financial regulators and agencies to solve the problems of overcoming the crisis and stimulating economic growth.

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Russian Economy in the Context of World Trends

Voprosy Ekonomiki ◽

10.32609/0042-8736-2015-2-32-48 ◽

2015 ◽

pp. 32-48 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

B. Zamaraev ◽

A. Kiyutsevskaya

Keyword(s):

Monetary Policy ◽

Large Scale ◽

Developed Countries ◽

Natural Consequence ◽

Global Trends ◽

Monetary Expansion ◽

Russian Economy ◽

Macroeconomic Indicators

Analyzing the changes of key macroeconomic indicators in the context of global trends, the authors conclude that the prolonged stagnation of the Russian economy, deeply integrated into global economic processes, is a natural consequence of weakening its competitiveness and reducing investment attractiveness. “Moderately tight” monetary policy conducted against the background of large-scale monetary expansion in developed countries has made its contribution.

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Public investment efficiency and monetary policy consequences: The case of investment ratio enhancing policy in Russia

Voprosy Ekonomiki ◽

10.32609/0042-8736-2020-9-22-39 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 22-39

Author(s):

S. A. Vlasov ◽

A. A. Sinyakov

Keyword(s):

Monetary Policy ◽

Interest Rates ◽

Equilibrium Model ◽

Public Investment ◽

Private Investment ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Investment Efficiency ◽

Investment Rate ◽

Russian Economy ◽

Key Features

The article analyzes the effects of measures to raise the investment rate from 21% to 25% of GDP up to 2024 on GDP growth and monetary policy. We conduct the analysis using an econometric general equilibrium model that reflects key features of the Russian economy. Achieving the target sequentially implies adding about 14 p. p. of GDP of public and/or private investment over 2019—2024 compared to the unchanged investment rate scenario. We find raising private investment to be the most efficient for stimulating GDP growth up to 2024. Among sources of public investment funding, using the sovereign wealth fund gives the highest GDP growth up to 2024. Nevertheless, given low public investment efficiency, a significant fraction of GDP growth becomes inflationary in this case. If the central bank minimizes the risk of inflation, inefficient public investment can lead the economy to equilibrium with higher private interest rates.

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Macroeconomic Preconditions of Realizationof a New Growth Model

Voprosy Ekonomiki ◽

10.32609/0042-8736-2012-9- ◽

2012 ◽

pp. 4-24

Author(s):

S. Drobyshevsky ◽

S. Sinelnikov-Murylev

Keyword(s):

Monetary Policy ◽

Inflation Targeting ◽

Average Price ◽

Growth Path ◽

Direct Control ◽

Russian Economy ◽

Monetary Authorities ◽

Budget Policy ◽

Stable Growth

The model of the Russian economy that was formed in 2000s does not match a new stable growth path, though it helped to calmly overcome the crisis of 2008 and 2009. The state needs to provide stability in the fields being under its direct control: in the budget and monetary policy. In the budget policy we consider advantages and drawbacks of a New Budget Rule, which is based on long-term average price of oil. In the monetary sphere we vote for the policy of transition to inflation targeting and priority of low inflation against other goals of monetary authorities.

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Inflation targeting in the world economy and in Russia

Voprosy Ekonomiki ◽

10.32609/0042-8736-2019-6-5-29 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 5-29 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Boris A. Zamaraev ◽

Anna M. Kiyutsevskaya

Keyword(s):

Monetary Policy ◽

Growth Rates ◽

Financial Stability ◽

World Economy ◽

Inflation Targeting ◽

Currency Crisis ◽

Policy Regimes ◽

Russian Economy ◽

Consumer Prices ◽

The World

The authors, analyzing features of realization of monetary policy under inflation targeting, show that its application and evolution are based on the objective reasons related to a decrease of consumer prices growth rates all over the world and an increase of the integration of the world economy. It led to the ineffectiveness of other monetary policy regimes in open economies. It is true also for the Russian economy that has passed the way from financial mechanisms of centralized economy to inflation targeting. Its approaches and instruments have been adjusted in accordance with Russian realities. The authors show that application of inflation targeting regime in Russia along with other measures of macroeconomic policy have become one of the elements of the system of maintaining financial stability after the 2014 currency crisis.

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COMPETITIVE DEVALUATION AS AN ELEMENT OF RUSSIA'S MODERN MONETARY POLICY

Vestnik of Samara State University of Economics ◽

10.46554/1993-0453-2021-1-195-95-102 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 1 (195) ◽

pp. 95-102

Author(s):

K.G. Bunevich ◽

◽

T.A. Gorbacheva ◽

A.N. Brodunov ◽

◽

...

Keyword(s):

Monetary Policy ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Foreign Currency ◽

Current System ◽

Federal State ◽

Foreign Markets ◽

Fundamental Factor ◽

Russian Economy ◽

The Exchange Rate ◽

The International Monetary Fund

The purpose of this article is to analyze the current system of exchange rate formation in Russia, to identify its main features. The dynamics of the exchange rate is of particular importance for Russian economy, which is among the so-called export-and resource-oriented. In such economies, the exchange rate is significantly dependent on the conditions of foreign markets, since the receipt of foreign exchange earnings from exports is the most important fundamental factor in the supply of foreign currency on the domestic market. On the other hand, the exchange rate itself is a factor in the external price competitiveness of Russian exports. The statistical databases of the Federal State Statistics Service and the Bank of Russia, as well as the statistical data of the International Monetary Fund group, the World Bank and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, served as the information base for this study. The paper used critical and comparative analysis, a systematic approach to the study of information, retrospective, statistical and graphical methods, on the basis of which the prerequisites were investigated and the features of the current monetary policy and some of its individual elements were identified.

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MONETARY POLICY OF THE BANK OF RUSSIA IN THE PERIOD OF FINANCIAL CRISES (2008 AND 2014) AND DEVELOPMENT BANKS

Vestnik Universiteta ◽

10.26425/1816-4277-2019-5-175-181 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 175-181 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

T. R. Maklakova ◽

S. S. Matveevskii

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Monetary Policy ◽

Financial Crises ◽

Multiple Regression Model ◽

Time Interval ◽

Real Sector ◽

Russian Economy ◽

Number Of Factors ◽

Quantitative Characteristics ◽

Development Banks

The monetary policy of the Bank of Russia during the financial crises (2008 and 2014) and the use of development banks for economic growth have been considered. The multiple regression model, which allowed to evaluate the influence of a number of factors on the quantitative characteristics of the Bank of Russia monetary policy on the selected time interval has been developed and used. It has been concluded, that in the current сonditions a reduction in the key rate of the Bank of Russia does not lead to an increase in lending to the real sector of the economy. The proposals to increase the volume of lending to the Russian economy in the conditions of implementation of the current monetary policy of the Bank of Russia have been prepared. The usefulness of expanding the application of development banks in Russia to accelerate economic growth has been substantiated.

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Monetary Policy Shocks in the Russian Economy and Their Macroeconomic Effects

Economic Policy ◽

10.18288/1994-5124-2019-4-48-75 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 14 (4) ◽

pp. 48-75

Keyword(s):

Monetary Policy ◽

Interest Rate ◽

Interest Rates ◽

Empirical Evidence ◽

Monetary Policy Shocks ◽

Interest Rate Policy ◽

Russian Economy ◽

Policy Shocks ◽

Rate Policy ◽

The Interest Rate

This section conducts an estimate of the impulse response function of key macroeconomic variables to monetary policy shocks in Russia. The estimates are carried out through a dynamic factor model (DFM) of the Russian economy with structural identification of shocks by imposing various sets of sign restrictions on the behavior of endogenous variables. We restricted first the monetary aggregate M2 only (a decrease in response to an increase of the Key rate), and then—simultaneously—M2, real effective exchange rate (an increase), and GDP (a decrease). We estimated the DFM using a large dataset of 58 macroeconomic and financial variables. The estimation results suggest that there is no decreasing response of consumer prices to an exogenous tightening of the interest rate policy of the Central Bank of Russia. This empirical evidence is supported implicitly by DFM-based predictions that under the imposition of such a decreasing response as an identifying restriction to the model, a positive interest rate shock is not transmitted through the interest rate channel of monetary policy to expected increases of the interest rates on commercial loans and private deposits. However, existing empirical evidence refutes this model-based result. Therefore, this study supports the view according to which a tightening of monetary policy in Russia is inefficient in terms of restraining inflation. In addition, monetary policy shocks negatively affect investments, retail sales, export and import, real wages, and employment. Different economic activities react differently to monetary policy shocks: export-oriented activities are not sensitive to these shocks, whereas domestic pro-cyclical activities (e.g. construction) can be substantially depressed in response to unexpected increases of interest rates. Finally, the expectations of economic agents are also significantly affected by shocks in the interest rate policy of the Bank of Russia.

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