scholarly journals Adaptive Modeling for Risk-Aware Decision Making

Author(s):  
Sandhya Saisubramanian

This thesis aims to provide a foundation for risk-aware decision making. Decision making under uncertainty is a core capability of an autonomous agent. A cornerstone for with long-term autonomy and safety is risk-aware decision making. A risk-aware model fully accounts for a known set of risks in the environment, with respect to the problem under consideration, and the process of decision making using such a model is risk-aware decision making. Formulating risk-aware models is critical for robust reasoning under uncertainty, since the impact of using less accurate models may be catastrophic in extreme cases due to overly optimistic view of problems. I propose adaptive modeling, a framework that helps balance the trade-off between model simplicity and risk awareness, for different notions of risks, while remaining computationally tractable.

2016 ◽  
Vol 30 (7) ◽  
pp. 1377-1404 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa Cheong ◽  
Susanne Bleisch ◽  
Allison Kealy ◽  
Kevin Tolhurst ◽  
Tom Wilkening ◽  
...  

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 238-246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joji B Kuramatsu ◽  
Hagen B Huttner

Background The most recent years have significantly expanded knowledge regarding risks and benefits of resuming oral anticoagulation (OAC) after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). No randomized data is yet available, though several large observational studies and meta-analyses have investigated the impact of resuming OAC on thromboembolic versus hemorrhagic complications in these high-risk patients after ICH. Aims The present review will summarize the most important studies conducted over the last years and will focus on relevant factors help guiding on decision-making on whether to start OAC after ICH. Summary of review Several important factors (demographic, co-morbidities, clinical characteristics) need to be considered before individual decision-making for or against OAC is employed. Existing observational data suggest that patients after ICH with indication for long-term oral anticoagulation benefit from OAC given significant reductions of thromboembolic events without significantly increasing bleeding complications. Studies even suggest that thereby also clinical outcomes may be improved. Prospective trials currently recruiting patients will clarify whether OAC after ICH – or left atrial appendage closure as a meaningful alternative – is of clinical net-benefit. Conclusions Large sized and well-executed investigations (moderate quality of evidence) are showing that OAC resumption after ICH decreases thromboembolic complications and long-term mortality without significantly increasing bleeding complications. Further, data suggest that resumption may be safer in non-lobar ICH compared to lobar ICH, but overall, thoughtful selection, strict blood pressure control, and precise communication are paramount before starting a patient on OAC after ICH.


2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Perry John Forsythe

The study investigates housing demolition and timber waste recovery – with the aim to identify ways of improving recovery. Using case studies the research focused on demolisher decision making, their onsite processes and the associated network of participants that influence timber recovery. From the data, a process model was developed that identifies and orders the drivers of demolition decision making. One aspect of the model identified the initiators of demolition and the waste created, including issues revolving around the demolition feedstock. Another aspect covers organisational business drivers and includes site safety, productivity, economies of scale, market value of waste and supply chain entrepreneurship. A third component deals with project specific drivers including the recurring cost versus income equation that impacts on the viability of project level decisions. The model includes a typology of the operational onsite response to the above drivers. Here, the deconstruction approach was found to provide high timber recovery mainly used where high-value timber waste was involved; the miscellaneous salvage approach provided some recovery of high and low-value timber; the crunch and dump approach provided low recovery or dumping at landfill and was used where low and no-value timber was involved. An expected increase in supply of these latter timber categories creates a significant need to increase the market value of currently low value timber groups. Designing for deconstruction is also posed as a long term strategy for this. 


2018 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
pp. 1123-1135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Mariani ◽  
Rabih Chattat ◽  
Giovanni Ottoboni ◽  
Raymond Koopmans ◽  
Myrra Vernooij-Dassen ◽  
...  

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 24
Author(s):  
Robby Hunawa

The long-term goal of this research is the birth of the process of drawing women's involvement in the bureaucratic decision-making process, and the gender reinforcement model in bureaucratic decision making in Bone Bolango District. The target of the research will be done by stages: 1) identify the problem of constraints faced; and 2) to formulate a model of gender reinforcement in bureaucratic decision making. The research method used is qualitative research with data collection techniques through: interview, documentation, and FGD. Further data collected will be analyzed data triangulation. The result of the research is the birth of a model of gender reinforcement in decision making bureaucracy. The impact of the study will provide answers on women's partisifasi in decision making. During this time the existence of women is very much ruled out. The presence of female figures in the public dimension brings new trends in the context of government. Women want to be treated proportionally. This tendency has implications for the inclusion of women to compete with men to become leaders.


1984 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 140-143
Author(s):  
Sarah S. Visser

The application of increasing price-level changes to capital investment decisions Inflation (the decreasing purchasing power of money) has become a reality with which one has to live, and for which one has to plan. As a result of the decrease in the purchasing power of money, the prices of production means are going up considerably, and more so where long-term capital projects are involved. The initial investment in respect of a capital project involves the least risk in accuracy, as it has to be known at the moment of decision-making and cannot be changed significantly until the decision has been realized. The other factors essential for decision-making and which will be realized in the future throughout the lifespan of the asset are subject to change in the value of money and it is important that the influence of this change be taken into account. The impact of price-level changes can be taken into account through the use of general or specific price-level changes. The application of this has led to the fact that only general price-level changes, or only specific price-level changes, or general and specific price-level changes can be used for the adjustment of items. The last includes the advantages of using both price-level changes. In each of these applications different methods have been developed which agree in principle, while there may be differences with regard to details of the applications.


2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Jianheng Zhou ◽  
Rongfei Xu

For the sale of a product with network externalities, a Stackelberg model involving an incumbent and an entrant is developed considering the impact of three strategic decision-making modes of the incumbent and consumers on the pricing, market share, and profit of firms. In addition, the impact of consumers’ strategic behaviours on firms’ pricing decisions and how firms respond to strategic customers is discussed. The results show that, in the SS (strategic firm facing strategic consumers) decision-making mode, the incumbent will implement long-term pricing and finally obtain the maximum profit, while as a follower of the incumbent, the entrant will also obtain the maximum profit in the SS mode. In the NS (nonstrategic firm facing strategic consumers) decision-making mode, the strategy of consumers seriously weakens the decision-making behaviour of the incumbent and causes the incumbent to obtain the lowest profit, but at the same time, the competitiveness of the entrant is enhanced to a certain extent, thereby rendering its profit higher than that in the NN (nonstrategic firm facing nonstrategic consumers) decision-making mode.


2019 ◽  
Vol 133 ◽  
pp. 84-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaileigh A. Byrne ◽  
Astin C. Cornwall ◽  
Darrell A. Worthy

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Pradeep Waychal ◽  
R.P. Mohanty

This paper posits that “innovation as a competence” depends on individuals and consists of appraisable competencies such as: visioning, ability to generate ideas, internal and external networking, ownership to the organization, stretch mindset, focus on tasks and decision making. Further, these competencies are associated with gender, age and reading scores of an individual and have interaction effect on each other. An empirical model to analyze the impact of the determinants on innovation as a competence and their interactions is constructed and the analysis suggests significant differentiating determinants and fair degree of interaction amongst some of them. The empirical study has been carried out in a midsize Indian information technology company. The findings may facilitate human resource development in information technology organizations, where innovations are considered to be the hallmark for long term growth and sustenance.


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