scholarly journals Decision process and preferences over risk under the “endogenous decision rule”: results from a group experiment

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 107-115
Author(s):  
Andrea Morone ◽  
Simone Nuzzo ◽  
Tiziana Temerario

Recent literature on individual vs. group decision-making, in risky contexts, has brought about divergent results, mainly depending on the institutional rules through which groups take decisions. Some studies where group decisions relied on majority rule showed no appreciable difference between individuals and groups’ preferences, others where unanimity among group members was required found collective decisions to be less risk-averse than individual ones. We elicited groups’ preferences over risk using what we defined “endogenous-decision-rule”, i.e. leaving groups free to endogenously solve the potential disagreement among their members. Our results unambiguously show that individuals are more risk seeker than groups when facing gambles with positive expected payoff difference and more risk-averse in the opposite case.

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 150518 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isobel Watts ◽  
Benjamin Pettit ◽  
Máté Nagy ◽  
Theresa Burt de Perera ◽  
Dora Biro

In societies that make collective decisions through leadership, a fundamental question concerns the individual attributes that allow certain group members to assume leadership roles over others. Homing pigeons form transitive leadership hierarchies during flock flights, where flock members are ranked according to the average time differences with which they lead or follow others' movement. Here, we test systematically whether leadership ranks in navigational hierarchies are correlated with prior experience of a homing task. We constructed experimental flocks of pigeons with mixed navigational experience: half of the birds within each flock had been familiarized with a specific release site through multiple previous releases, while the other half had never been released from the same site. We measured the birds' hierarchical leadership ranks, then switched the same birds' roles at a second site to test whether the relative hierarchical positions of the birds in the two subsets would reverse in response to the reversal in levels of experience. We found that while across all releases the top hierarchical positions were occupied by experienced birds significantly more often than by inexperienced ones, the remaining experienced birds were not consistently clustered in the top half—in other words, the network did not become stratified. We discuss our results in light of the adaptive value of structuring leadership hierarchies according to ‘merit’ (here, navigational experience).


2013 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 20130029 ◽  
Author(s):  
Larissa Conradt

Social animals frequently share decisions that involve uncertainty and conflict. It has been suggested that conflict can enhance decision accuracy. In order to judge the practical relevance of such a suggestion, it is necessary to explore how general such findings are. Using a model, I examine whether conflicts between animals in a group with respect to preferences for avoiding false positives versus avoiding false negatives could, in principle, enhance the accuracy of collective decisions. I found that decision accuracy nearly always peaked when there was maximum conflict in groups in which individuals had different preferences. However, groups with no preferences were usually even more accurate. Furthermore, a relatively slight skew towards more animals with a preference for avoiding false negatives decreased the rate of expected false negatives versus false positives considerably (and vice versa), while resulting in only a small loss of decision accuracy. I conclude that in ecological situations in which decision accuracy is crucial for fitness and survival, animals cannot ‘afford’ preferences with respect to avoiding false positives versus false negatives. When decision accuracy is less crucial, animals might have such preferences. A slight skew in the number of animals with different preferences will result in the group avoiding that type of error more that the majority of group members prefers to avoid. The model also indicated that knowing the average success rate (‘base rate’) of a decision option can be very misleading, and that animals should ignore such base rates unless further information is available.


Author(s):  
Cédric Sueur

Every day, millions of humans make decisions about issues of interest for the group they represent. Equivalent processes have already been well described for animal societies. Many animal species live in groups and have to take collective decisions to synchronize their activities. However, group members not only have to take decisions satisfying the majority of individuals (i.e. decision accuracy) but also have a relatively short period to do so (i.e. decision speed). In decision-making, speed and accuracy are often opposed. The decision efficiency will vary according to the way individuals are inter-connected, namely according to the social network. However, the traditional approach used in management and decision sciences has been revealed to be insufficient to fully explain decision-making efficiency. This chapter addresses the question of how social network may enhance collective decision-making by increasing both the accuracy and the speed of decisions. Studies within different animal species are discussed. These studies include human beings, and combine field experiments, social network analysis, and modelling to illustrate how the study of animals may contribute to our understanding of decision-making in humans.


2017 ◽  
Vol 261 (1) ◽  
pp. 317-336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Gauvin ◽  
Erick Delage ◽  
Michel Gendreau

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 45-60
Author(s):  
Irton Irton ◽  
Salihah Khairawati ◽  
Mu’tashim Billah Murtadlo

ABSTRACTThe purpose of this research is to know the behavior of investors towards Islamic capital market. The research was conducted on several Muslim student respondents from several universities in Yogyakarta who invested in sharia capital markets. The type of data in this study is primary data obtained through in-depth interviews. The results showed that there are two investor characters among students namely risk seeker or risk taker and risk-averse. Respondents realized that investing in the capital market has potential benefits as well as potential risks. For investors, risk seeker has high confidence and optimism when making investment decisions, while risk-averse tends to be cautious and a lot of consideration when making investment decisions. In general, sharia capital market investors who are the majority of students have a good belief in the wisdom of stocks traded in sharia capital markets. They believe in the fatwa of scholars, the role of the DSN, and the role of capital market supervisory bodies. They are mostly also looking for information about sharia capital market sharia through books, capital market socialization, IDX web. In terms of transaction mechanisms in the sharia capital market only a small part still doubts its validity due to issue factors, lack of understanding of islamic capital market the correctness factor of the company's financial performance, and the ups and downs of the share price.Keywords: investor behavior, investment decisions, sharia capital market ABSTRAK Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui perilaku investor terhadap pasar modal syariah. Penelitian dilakukan terhadap sejumlah responden mahasiswa muslim dari beberapa perguruan tinggi di Yogyakarta yang melakukan investasi di pasar modal syariah. Jenis data dalam penelitian ini adalah data primer yang diperoleh melalui wawancara Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa terdapat dua karakter investor di kalangan mahasiswa yakni risk seeker atau risk taker dan risk averse. Responden menyadari bahwa investasi di pasar modal memiliki potensi untung dan juga potensi resiko. Bagi investor risk seeker memiliki rasa percaya diri yang tinggi dan optimis ketika mengambil keputusan investasi, sedangkan risk averse cenderung berhati-hati dan banyak pertimbangan ketika mengambil keputusan investasi. Secara umum investor pasar modal syariah yang merupakan mahasiswa mayoritas memiliki keyakinan yang baik mengenai kesyariahan saham-saham yang diperdagangkan di pasar modal syariah. Mereka percaya terhadap fatwa ulama, peranan DSN dan peranan badan pengawas pasar modal. Mereka sebagian besar juga mencari informasi tentang kesyariahan pasar modal syariah melalui buku, sosialisasi pasar modal, web IDX. Pada aspek mekanisme transaski pada pasar modal syariah hanya sebagian kecil yang masih meragukan kesyariahannya, karena faktor isu dan kurangnya pemahaman, faktor adanya unsur ketidakpastian naik turunnya harga saham.Kata kunci : perilaku investor, keputusan investasi, pasar modal syariah


Author(s):  
Dale Carter

Abstract   The rise of the American counterculture between the early- to mid-1960s and early- to mid-1970s was closely associated with the growth of environmentalism. This article explores how both informed popular music, which during these years became not only a prominent form of entertainment but also a forum for cultural and social criticism. In particular, through contextual and lyrical analyses of recordings by The Beach Boys, the article identifies patterns of change and continuity in the articulation of countercultural, ecological, and related sensibilities. During late 1966 and early 1967, the group’s leader Brian Wilson and lyricist Van Dyke Parks collaborated on a collection of songs embodying such progressive thinking, even though the music of The Beach Boys had previously shown no such ambitions. In the short term, their efforts floundered as the risk-averse logic of the commercial music industry prompted group members to resist perceived threats to their established profile. Yet in the long term (and ironically in the name of commercial survival), The Beach Boys began selectively to adopt innovations they had previously shunned. Shorn of its more controversial associations, what had formerly been considered high risk had by 1970 become good business as once-marginal environmentalism gained broader acceptability: thus did ‘America’s band’ articulate the flowering, greening, and fading of the counterculture.     Resumen   El auge de la contracultura americana entre principios y mediados de las décadas de 1960 y 1970 guarda una estrecha relación con la expansión del movimiento ecologista. Este artículo explora el modo en que ambas corrientes dieron forma a la música popular, un medio de expresión que se convirtió en una destacada forma de entretenimiento y un foro de crítica cultural y social durante el período analizado. Más específicamente, se emplea el análisis contextual y lírico de las grabaciones de los Beach Boys para identificar patrones de cambio y continuidad en los movimientos contracultural y ecologista, y otros afines a ellos. Entre finales de 1966 y principios de 1967, Brian Wilson (el líder del grupo) y el letrista Van Dyke Parks colaboraron en un variado conjunto de canciones que encarnaban tales ideas progresistas, aun cuando la música de los Beach Boys nunca había puesto de manifiesto este tipo de ambiciones hasta entonces. A corto plazo, sus esfuerzos fueron en vano, ya que la lógica conservadora de la industria discográfica comercial instó a los miembros del grupo a resistir ante las amenazas que recibía su perfil. Más a largo plazo (e, irónicamente, en nombre de la supervivencia comercial) los Beach Boys comenzaron a adoptar, de un modo más bien escrupuloso, novedades que antes habían evitado debido a las controvertidas asociaciones que permitían establecer. En 1970, lo que antes se consideraba de alto riesgo se había convertido en un gran negocio debido en buena medida a que el ecologismo, otrora marginal, había ganado en aceptación popular; ello llevó a la “Banda de América” a expresar el florecimiento, la madurez y el desvanecimiento de la contracultura.


2008 ◽  
Vol 364 (1518) ◽  
pp. 807-819 ◽  
Author(s):  
Larissa Conradt ◽  
Timothy J Roper

Social animals regularly face consensus decisions whereby they choose, collectively, between mutually exclusive actions. Such decisions often involve conflicts of interest between group members with respect to preferred action. Conflicts could, in principle, be resolved, either by sharing decisions between members (‘shared decisions’) or by one ‘dominant’ member making decisions on behalf of the whole group (‘unshared decisions’). Both, shared and unshared decisions, have been observed. However, it is unclear as to what favours the evolution of either decision type. Here, after a brief literature review, we present a novel method, involving a combination of self-organizing system and game theory modelling, of investigating the evolution of shared and unshared decisions. We apply the method to decisions on movement direction. We find that both, shared and unshared, decisions can evolve without individuals having a global overview of the group's behaviour or any knowledge about other members' preferences or intentions. Selection favours unshared over shared decisions when conflicts are high relative to grouping benefits, and vice versa. These results differ from those of group decision models relating to activity timings. We attribute this to fundamental differences between collective decisions about modalities that are disjunct (here, space) or continuous (here, time) with respect to costs/benefits.


2010 ◽  
Vol 62 (3) ◽  
pp. 381-421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melani Cammett ◽  
Sukriti Issar

In plural societies, social welfare can be a terrain of political contestation, particularly when public welfare functions are underdeveloped and ethnic or religious groups provide basic social services. It is well established that such organizations favor in-group members, but under what conditions do they serve out-group communities? To address this question, the authors compare the welfare programs of the predominantly Sunni Muslim Future Movement and the Shiite Muslim Hezbollah in Lebanon. Although they operate under the same institutional rules and economic contexts and boast the largest welfare programs in their respective communities, the Future Movement aims to serve a broader array of beneficiaries, including non-Sunnis, whereas Hezbollah focuses more exclusively on Shiite communities. Based on analyses of an original data set of the spatial locations of welfare agencies, qualitative data from interviews with providers and beneficiaries, and case studies of areas where the two parties established and did not establish welfare agencies, the authors argue that distinct political mobilization strategies—whether electoral or nonelectoral—explain different patterns of service delivery across the two organizations.


1997 ◽  
Vol 75 (5) ◽  
pp. 661-669 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eva Brännäs ◽  
Anders Alanärä

The feeding activity of eight groups of 15 rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) each was recorded using self-feeders combined with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag registrations. The diel pattern for all individuals was established by analysing the PIT-tag registrations. Most trout released the self-feeders during daylight, but in all groups some individuals (1–5) were active mainly during the night. The hypothesis that dualism in diel feeding activity is influenced by competition for food resources between individuals was then tested. In the first round, the diurnally active group members were removed, leaving groups with only 5 mainly nocturnally active individuals. After 3 weeks, the nocturnal individuals still released the self-feeders mainly in darkness. In a second round, the nocturnal individuals were removed, leaving the diurnal ones to self-feed in smaller groups. Again, no switch in activity occurred, but the diurnal trout continued to release the triggers in daylight. When food was available at all hours, individual fish seemed to gain little by releasing the demand feeders during a specific part of the light–dark cycle. The diurnal individuals were significantly (p < 0.05) larger than the nocturnal ones in the first round, but there were no significant (p > 0.05) differences in specific growth rate between the two categories. During the second round, there was no difference in mass between nocturnal and diurnal individuals, whereas the former had a significantly (p < 0.05) higher growth rate. The ecological benefits of dualism in feeding activity within groups of fish are discussed.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document