scholarly journals The effect of oil prices on the economic diversification process: evidence from the GCC countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 334-341
Author(s):  
Osama D. Sweidan
Keyword(s):  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Strategic Plan ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Gcc Countries ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
A Priority

We investigate the Granger non-causality relationship between oil prices and the economic diversification process in the GCC countries during the period 1989-2017. This paper uses Pedroni's (2004) panel cointegration tests and the panel non-causality test of Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) to achieve its goals. We find that oil price changes Granger cause the movements in the diversification progression. It indicates that economic diversification of the GCC countries is not a priority to the GCC governments because their role is changing. As a result, the GCC countries should give priority to the economic diversification if it is a strategic plan for their economies.

Africa's 'oil price winners' face mixed prospects

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Africa ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Political Space ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Civil Unrest ◽  
Sub Saharan

Subject Africa's oil price winners. Significance Despite traditionally being winners during periods of oil price decline, the medium-term outlook is mixed for sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) oil importing countries -- reflected in the IMF's recent downgrade of its SSA outlook from 5.75% to 4.9%. Short-term gains reduce the fuel import bill, but uncertainty looms over energy investments in eastern African, while idiosyncratic risks cloud the outlook for southern Africa. While oil exporters may also reap some benefits, much will depend on the degree of oil dependency, political space to make the necessary policy retrenchments, and the extent of government financial buffers. Impacts If sustained, low oil prices could provoke civil unrest, rather than reforms, in oil exporting countries. Most oil exporters will struggle to maintain macroeconomic stability if oil remains low for more than a year. However, economic diversification to some degree helps to shield the region from sharp global slowdowns.

scholarly journals How does gold and oil price volatility affect Turkish financial markets?

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 262-270
Author(s):  
Hakan Öner ◽  
Hande Kılıç Satıcı
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Turkish Lira

Gold and oil price volatilities are thought to have an impact on financial markets. The main aim of this study is to examine the effects of changes in gold and oil prices on Turkish financial markets. For this purpose, the effects of gold and oil price volatilities on nominal US dollar/Turkish lira exchange rate, Borsa Istanbul 100 Index and Turkey 10-year bond interest rates are used to represent Turkish financial markets are analysed by Granger Casuality Test. The study comprises daily data over the period of June 1, 2010 - April 30, 2017. According to the results of the analysis, there is no causality relationship from gold and oil prices to Turkish financial markets. On the other hand, it is concluded that there is a one-way causality relationship from BIST100 index to Turkey 10-year bond interest rate and two-way causality relationship between BIST 100 index and nominal US dollar/Turkish lira exchange rate.

scholarly journals Industrial production index - crude oil price nexus: Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan

2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (227) ◽  
pp. 119-141
Author(s):  
Fatih Kaplan ◽  
Ayşe Ünal
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Frequency Domain ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Industrial Production Index

The study aims to examine the causality between industrial production index and crude oil price for Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan by using Frequency Domain Causality Analysis. For this purpose, the monthly data of the industrial production index and Brent oil price data over the period 1993-2019 are used. The Frequency Domain Causality Analysis suggests that the uni-directional causality relationship runs from oil prices to industrial production index is valid in the medium run for Russia and Azerbaijan and in the short run for Kazakhstan. However, there is no uni-directional causality linkage between oil prices and industrial production index in the long run for any of the countries. We hope to contribute to the literature by using frequency-domain causality test which examines the interrelation of crude oil prices on industrial production with the periodicity in these countries. The finding of this study is expected to serve as a tool for industrial production policy.

THE NEXUS AMONG TOURISM, URBANISATION AND CO2 EMISSIONS IN SOUTH ASIA: A PANEL ANALYSIS

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-82
Author(s):  
Sakib Bin Amin ◽  
Mahnaz Aftabi Atique
Keyword(s):  
South Asia ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Environmentally Sustainable ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Determinants Of Economic Growth

Purpose – Tourism and urbanisation are two significant determinants of economic growth and have been identified as top contributors to CO2 emissions. We examine the nexus among tourism, urbanisation, and CO2 emissions in South Asia by providing empirical evidence using panel data analysis. Design – Annual data from 1995-2019 is collected from the World Development Indicator 2020 for five South Asian countries: Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Pakistan. Methodology – Durbin-Hausman panel cointegration and LM Bootstrap panel cointegration tests are conducted to check long-run cointegration. Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test is used to detect causal relationship among the variables. Moreover, the PDOLS, PMG ARDL, c-up FMOLS and Generalised Linear Model are used to estimate long-run coefficients of the variables. Findings – We reveal unidirectional causalities running from urbanisation to tourism, urbanisation to CO2 emissions, and tourism to CO2 emissions. Additionally, when heterogeneity of the variables is taken into account, both tourism and urbanisation show positive and significant effect on CO2 emissions in the long-run. Originality of the Research – To our knowledge, no previous study investigates the relationship among tourism, urbanisation and CO2 emissions is South Asia. Our results will guide policy makers to design policies that will promote urbanisation and tourism growth in an environmentally sustainable way.

An empirical study on the dynamic relationship between oil prices and Indian stock market

2014 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 200-215 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tarak Nath Sahu ◽  
Kalpataru Bandopadhyay ◽  
Debasish Mondal
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Indian Stock Market

Purpose – This study aims to investigate the dynamic relationships between oil price shocks and Indian stock market. Design/methodology/approach – The study used daily data for the period starting from January 2001 to March 2013. In this study, Johansen's cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM), Granger causality test, impulse response functions (IRFs) and variance decompositions (VDCs) test have been applied to exhibit the long-run and short-run relationship between them. Findings – The cointegration result indicates the existence of long-term relationship. Further, the error correction term of VECM shows a long-run causality moves from Indian stock market to oil price but not the vice versa. The results of the Granger causality test under the VECM framework confirm that no short-run causality between the variables exists. The VDCs analysis revealed that the Indian stock markets and crude oil prices are strongly exogenous. Finally, from the IRFs, analysis revealed that a positive shock in oil price has a small but persistence and growing positive impact on Indian stock markets in short run. Originality/value – The study would enhance the understandings of the interaction between oil price volatilities and emerging stock market performances. Further, the study would enable foreign investors who are interested in Indian stock market helps in understanding the conditional relationship between the variables.

scholarly journals The nexus between external debt, corruption and economic growth: evidence from five SSA countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 319-334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Waliu Olawale Shittu ◽  
Sallahuddin Hassan ◽  
Muhammad Atif Nawaz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ssa Countries

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of external debt and corruption on economic growth in the selected five Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, from 1990 to 2015. Design/methodology/approach Panel unit root and panel cointegration tests are employed to test for stationarity of the series and the long-run relationship, respectively. Fully modified OLS and dynamic OLS techniques are also employed to examine the long-run coefficients of the variables of the model, as well as panel Granger causality test, in order to examine the direction of causality among the variables. Findings The results indicate that there is a negative relationship between external debt and economic growth, as well as a bi-directional causality between the two variables. The findings also indicate a positive relationship between corruption and economic growth, as well as a uni-directional causality running from economic growth through corruption. Research limitations/implications The study recommends that the governments of the selected countries should address the menace of rising external debt through the adoption of other sources of capital for investment. Such include more openness of the economy for more capital, by easing restrictions on genuine imports and exports of valuable goods and services. It also suggests that the issue of corruption be tackled head-on, by such penalties that tend to make corruption less attractive. Originality/value While the relationship between economic growth and external debt, on the one hand, and corruption and economic growth, on the other hand, have received considerable attentions, the trio of external debt, corruption and economic growth have not been found combined in a model, to the best of the authors’ knowledge. Also, the countries under consideration, who jointly account for about 47 percent of the entire SSA countries’ stock of external debt, have not been jointly found in any recent panel studies involving the selected variables.

scholarly journals The Transmission of Global Commodity Prices to Consumer Prices in a Commodity Import-Dependent Country: Evidence from Morocco

2020 ◽  
Vol 67 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-32
Author(s):  
Mounir El-Karimi ◽  
El-Ghini Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper uses the Breitung and Candelon (2006) causality test to examine the effect of global oil and food price changes on the inflation in Morocco over the period from 1998Q1 to 2018Q1. The results show significant transmission from oil and food prices to domestic inflation. Specifically, the food prices are shown more important than oil prices in explaining inflation in the short-run, which reflects the high weight of food in the consumption basket. However, the effect of oil prices on inflation is much more persistent than the effect of food prices. Furthermore, the impact of commodity price shocks on inflation exhibits asymmetries. The oil price hikes affect more weakly the inflation than oil price decreases, whereas the food price increases are more transmitted to inflation than food price decreases. Our findings may provide useful information to researchers and policymakers in formulating more appropriate monetary policy.

Financial Fragility and Its Impacts on International Trade and Economic Growth

2021 ◽  
pp. 158-173
Author(s):  
Ayberk Şeker
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Financial Fragility ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Fragility Index ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Cointegration Tests

International trade cannot be considered separate from the current financial system in the context of imports and exports. In this context, the impact on international trade should be analyzed under the financial fragility hypothesis. This chapter aims to analyze the effects of financial fragility on Fragile Five and Troubled Ten countries' economic growth and trade strategies. In this direction, long-term relationships between variables are analyzed by Westerlund panel cointegration tests. According to the result of the panel cointegration tests, there are long-term relationships between exports, imports, gross domestic product, and financial fragility index. After determining the long-term relationships between variables, causality analyses have been carried out to reveal the direction of these relationships. According to Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test results, there are bidirectional causality relationships between financial fragility index and export, import, and gross domestic product.

Prospects of open government data (OGD) in facilitating the economic diversification of GCC region

2017 ◽  
Vol 118 (5/6) ◽  
pp. 214-234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stuti Saxena
Keyword(s):  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Open Government ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gcc Countries ◽  
Open Government Data ◽  
Government Data ◽  
Immense Potential

Purpose As the ongoing oil prices’ crisis is emerging as a major cause of concern for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, the constituent governments are attempting at undertaking measures of economic diversification to attain long-term sustainability. The author posits that open government data (OGD) has a significant role to play in facilitating the economic turnaround of the GCC region, given that OGD promotes innovation and economic growth besides providing avenues for collaboration and participation among different stakeholders. Design/methodology/approach Following a structured literature review, the paper scans literature on OGD followed by providing a typology of countries on the basis of their OGD-adherence (“laggard”, “caged”, “forerunner” and “champ”). This is followed by a discussion on the ongoing oil prices’ crisis, and evidentiary support is lent by examples from the OGD portals of each of the six GCC countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates) to provide indicators as to how a robust OGD implementation may support their economic diversification objectives. Findings Although the present OGD framework of the GCC is relatively weak, it is asserted that OGD has immense potential in facilitating the economic diversification initiatives of the GCC countries. Therefore, the GCC needs to strategize upon institutionalization of their OGD initiatives for realizing their “vision” and goals of economic diversification to result in an economic turnaround effectively. Originality/value Besides providing a typology of countries as OGD-adherents and categorizing GCC as “forerunner(s)” on the basis of the typology, the originality of the study lies in its attempt to answer the research question: “what is the role of the OGD in facilitating the economic diversification of the GCC?” Conceding that the research on OGD in the GCC context is few and far between, the present study is a significant contribution to the extant literature pertaining to the roll-out of OGD in developing countries.

scholarly journals Energy and Bank Equity Interactions

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Sharaf Shaiban ◽  
Di Li ◽  
Akram S. Hasanov
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Price Impact ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
The Impact

Oil price shocks harm real output and bank and industrial profit in most oil-importing countries, which has motivated us to investigate the impact of these shocks on the equity performance of banking industries. To fulfill the research objectives, we involve a sample of developed and emerging economies for comparison purposes. The objective of employing the Toda and Yamamoto (Journal of econometrics, 1995, 66 (1), 225–250) causality test is to explore the time-variant relationship between oil prices and banking indices to investigate how oil price shocks affect the performance of country-specific banking industries. In addition, an impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis are utilized to, respectively, examine the time-variant relationship between oil price shocks and macroeconomic factors and the performance of the banking sector. Results vary across different economies in our sample, but the magnitude of oil price impact is relatively significant in the US, the UK, Canada, Japan, Mexico, and Brazil. The findings indicate that oil price rises adversely affect equity bank indices in developed and emerging economics except for Mexico. Notably, our findings show that oil prices and interest rates jointly have significant power in explaining the banking equity variation and suggest that international bank portfolio investors should consider hedging oil price risk.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document