A New Ground-Motion Prediction Equation of Japanese Instrumental Seismic Intensities Reflecting Source Type Characteristics in Japan

ABSTRACT A new equation for predicting Japanese instrumental seismic intensities at arbitrary surface sites in Japan for Mw 5.4–8.7 and distances ranging from 10 to 1000 km was derived from approximately 30,000 observed intensities for various types of earthquakes. The equation incorporates the differences in the subsurface characteristics immediately beneath each site using VS30. The equation can also predict the abnormal intensities (which are indispensable in Japan) due to subducting slabs using the depth of the slab surface beneath each site from the Crustal Activity Modeling Program standard plate model. The prediction equation can be applied to five source types: Pacific Ocean plate (PAC) interplate, PAC intraplate, very shallow crustal, shallow (≤50 km) Philippine Sea plate (PHS) intraplate, and intermediate-depth (>50 km) PHS intraplate earthquakes. Although the equation is applicable at various magnitudes and distances, the standard deviations (σ) are 0.5–0.6, which are smaller than those of other equations with narrower distance ranges. Smaller σ values were achieved by the inversion of 29,837 Japanese instrumental seismic intensities from 68 selected earthquakes of five source types with a common site effect at each station. A deep Mw 7.9 earthquake that occurred at a depth of 680 km in 2015 near the Ogasawara Islands and subjected all of Japan to long-duration shaking due to waves propagating through the mantle was effectively employed to constrain the VS30 term of the equation. The equations for PAC interplate and very shallow earthquakes were validated by seven earthquakes that were not used for the inversion; the standard deviations for these earthquakes fell in the range of 0.41–0.53. The formula for very shallow crustal earthquakes is also able to predict the intensities of PHS interplate earthquakes. Hence, this equation is useful not only for engineering applications but also for historical seismology to distinguish the source types of ancient earthquakes.

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A Comparison of Ground-Motion Parameters for the Vertical Components from the Western and the Southwestern Parts of China with Recent Ground-Motion Prediction Equations

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America ◽

10.1785/0120200003 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Hao Xing ◽

John X. Zhao

Keyword(s):

Ground Motion ◽

Normal Fault ◽

Constant Term ◽

Site Effect ◽

Prediction Equation ◽

Motion Prediction ◽

Ground Motion Prediction ◽

Vertical Ground Motions ◽

Standard Deviations ◽

Suitable Reference

ABSTRACT This study evaluated the source, path, and site effects of the vertical ground motions from the western and the southwestern parts of China (referred to as SWC hereafter) using 2403 records from 449 earthquakes, including the records from the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake and its aftershocks. Only 677 records are from 73 mainshocks, and 259 events do not have a known focal mechanism. There is a large magnitude gap in the dataset, for example, there is only one event between Mw 6.3 and Mw 7.8. The average numbers of records per recording station and per earthquake are small, and many sites do not have a measured shear-wave velocity profile. These shortcomings make it difficult to develop a robust ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) without adding overseas data or using a reference GMPE developed from a large dataset. We compared the SWC dataset with five recent GMPEs, three based on the Next Generation Attenuation-West2 dataset, one based on Europe and the Middle East, and one based on the shallow-crustal and upper-mantle earthquakes in Japan. We decomposed the total residuals for each model into constant term, between-event, and within-event residuals and calculated the corresponding standard deviations. The maximum log likelihood and the standard deviations suggest that, among the five GMPEs, the Zhao et al. (2017) model without the normal-fault term may be the most suitable GMPE for a probabilistic seismic hazard study in the SWC region. Correction functions based on simple magnitude, path, and site effect parameters were used to correct the residuals and to obtain the leftover between- and within-event standard deviations. These standard deviations appear to suggest that the GMPE from Zhao et al. (2017) without a normal-fault term may be the most suitable reference GMPE for developing a new GMPE for the SWC region.

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A Ground-Motion Prediction Equation for the Western and the Southwestern Parts of China Based on Local Strong-Motion Records and an Overseas Reference Model for the Vertical Component

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America ◽

10.1785/0120210032 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Hao Xing ◽

John X. Zhao

Keyword(s):

Ground Motion ◽

Earthquake Engineering ◽

Reference Model ◽

Prediction Equation ◽

Motion Prediction ◽

Ground Motion Prediction Equation ◽

Ground Motion Prediction ◽

Magnitude Scaling ◽

The Absolute ◽

Standard Deviations

ABSTRACT A ground-motion prediction equation for the vertical ground motions from the western and the southwestern parts of China (referred to as SWC) is presented in this study. Based on the Xing and Zhao (2021) study, the Zhao et al. (2017) model (referred to as ZHAO2017) for the shallow crustal earthquakes in Japan was used as the reference model. We used a bilinear magnitude-scaling function hinged at a moment magnitude (Mw) of 7.1. The magnitude-scaling rate for events with Mw>7.1 was determined by records from the SWC dataset and the large events in the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center Next Generation Attenuation-West2 dataset. Site classes (SCs) were used as the site response proxy. All other parameters were derived from the SWC dataset only. The magnitude-scaling rates for events with Mw≤7.1 in this study are larger than in the ZHAO2017 model at most periods. The absolute values of the geometric attenuation rates are larger, and the absolute values of the anelastic attenuation rates are smaller than in the ZHAO2017 model. The between-event standard deviations are smaller than in the ZHAO2017 model at short periods, and the within-event standard deviations are larger than in the ZHAO2017 model at all periods. The differences in the between-site standard deviations vary significantly from one SC to another. We also find that the between-event and within-event residuals are almost independent of magnitude and source distance. The response spectrum attenuates less rapidly than in the ZHAO2017 model at distances less than 30 km.

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A Generalized Equation for Prediction of VO2peak from a Step Test

International Journal of Sports Medicine ◽

10.1055/a-1310-3900 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Corey A. Selland ◽

Joshua Kelly ◽

Kathleen Gums ◽

Jessica R. Meendering ◽

Matt Vukovich

Keyword(s):

Cross Validation ◽

Prediction Equation ◽

Step Test ◽

Abdominal Circumference ◽

Stepwise Multiple Regression ◽

Forward Stepwise ◽

Test Equation ◽

New Equation ◽

Pearson Correlations ◽

Development Group

AbstractThis study aimed to develop an equation to reduce variability of VO2peak prediction from a step test and compare VO2peak prediction from the new equation to the Queen’s College Step Test (QCST). The development group (n=86; 21.7±2 years) was utilized to develop the SDState step test equation to predict relative VO2peak. The cross-validation group (n=99; 21.6±2 years) was used to determine the validity of the SDState step test VO2peak prediction equation. A regression analysis was used to identify the best model to predict VO2peak. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was further used to determine differences among predicted and measured VO2peak values. Forward stepwise multiple regression identified age, sex, abdominal circumference, and active heart rate at the 3-min mark of the step test to be significant predictors of VO2peak (mL·kg−1·min−1). No differences among measured VO2peak (47.3±7.1 mL·kg−1·min−1) and predicted VO2peak (QCST, 46.9±9.3 mL·kg−1·min−1; SDState 48.3±5.7 mL·kg−1·min−1) were found. Pearson correlations, ICC, SEE, TEE, Bland-Altman plots, and Mountain plots indicate the SDState step test equation provides less variation in the prediction of VO2peak compared to the QCST. The SDState step test equation is effective for predicting VO2peak from the YMCA step test in young, healthy adults.

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A Practical Method for Estimating Percent Body Fat of Adult Mentally Retarded Males

Adapted Physical Activity Quarterly ◽

10.1123/apaq.4.2.117 ◽

1987 ◽

Vol 4 (2) ◽

pp. 117-125 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Luke E. Kelly ◽

James H. Rimmer

Keyword(s):

Body Fat ◽

Standard Error ◽

Mentally Retarded ◽

Practical Method ◽

Prediction Equation ◽

Stepwise Multiple Regression ◽

Percent Body Fat ◽

Criterion Measure ◽

The Stability ◽

New Equation

The subjects were 170 moderately and severely mentally retarded men who were divided into two groups. The first group was used to formulate a new prediction equation and the second group was used to cross-validate and ascertain the stability of the derived equation. The prediction equation, employing waist and forearm circumferences, height and weight as predictors, and estimated percent body fat calculated by the generalized regression equation of Jackson and Pollock (1978) as the criterion measure, was formulated using a stepwise multiple regression analysis. A multiple R value of .86 was obtained for the derived equation with a standard error of estimate value of 3.35. The equation was cross-validated on the second sample to ascertain its stability. An r of .81 and a standard error of estimate of 4.41 was obtained between the subjects’ estimated percent body fat, using the new equation, and the criterion measure. This simplified equation provides practitioners with an accurate, reliable, and inexpensive method of estimating percent body fat for adult mentally retarded males.

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Comparisons of the NGA Ground-Motion Relations

Earthquake Spectra ◽

10.1193/1.2924363 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 24 (1) ◽

pp. 45-66 ◽

Cited By ~ 164

Author(s):

Norman Abrahamson ◽

Gail Atkinson ◽

David Boore ◽

Yousef Bozorgnia ◽

Kenneth Campbell ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Site Response ◽

Strike Slip ◽

Data Sets ◽

Sediment Depth ◽

Long Period ◽

Crustal Earthquakes ◽

Nonlinear Site Response ◽

Soil Sediment ◽

Active Tectonic ◽

Standard Deviations

The data sets, model parameterizations, and results from the five NGA models for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions are compared. A key difference in the data sets is the inclusion or exclusion of aftershocks. A comparison of the median spectral values for strike-slip earthquakes shows that they are within a factor of 1.5 for magnitudes between 6.0 and 7.0 for distances less than 100 km. The differences increase to a factor of 2 for M5 and M8 earthquakes, for buried ruptures, and for distances greater than 100 km. For soil sites, the differences in the modeling of soil/sediment depth effects increase the range in the median long-period spectral values for M7 strike-slip earthquakes to a factor of 3. The five models have similar standard deviations for M6.5-M7.5 earthquakes for rock sites and for soil sites at distances greater than 50 km. Differences in the standard deviations of up to 0.2 natural log units for moderate magnitudes at all distances and for large magnitudes at short distances result from the treatment of the magnitude dependence and the effects of nonlinear site response on the standard deviation.

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A Damping Modification Factor for Horizontal Acceleration Spectrum from Subduction Slab Earthquakes in Japan Accounting for Site Conditions

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America ◽

10.1785/0120190242 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 110 (4) ◽

pp. 1942-1959

Author(s):

John X. Zhao ◽

Mingxiu Jiang ◽

Xiaonan Zhang ◽

Lili Kang

Keyword(s):

Damping Ratio ◽

Site Effect ◽

Site Conditions ◽

Design Spectrum ◽

Horizontal Acceleration ◽

Displacement Spectra ◽

Modification Factor ◽

Standard Deviations ◽

Source And Path Effects ◽

Site Classes

ABSTRACT We present a damping modification factor (DMF) model for the total acceleration spectrum from subduction slab earthquakes. The model can be used for scaling a 5% damped design spectrum not associated with a particular earthquake that occurred in a subduction slab. The DMF model uses site-period-based site classes as the site-effect proxy. DMF models were constructed based on the spectrum for 13 damping ratios and 34 spectral periods; the DMF values can be calculated for any damping ratio between 1% and 30% and at any spectral period between 0.03 and 5.0 s. At moderately long and long spectral periods, the DMF values for acceleration spectrum are similar to or less than those for the displacement spectrum for a damping ratio of less than 5%, whereas the DMF values for the acceleration spectrum are similar to or larger than those for the displacement spectrum when the damping ratio is more than 5%. The standard deviations for acceleration and displacement spectra are similar at short or moderately short spectral periods, but those for the acceleration spectrum are about twice those for the displacement spectrum at long spectral periods. All standard deviations decrease linearly with increasing damping ratios in the logarithm scale when the damping ratio is less than 5% and increase linearly with increasing damping ratios in a logarithm scale for the other damping ratios. A set of simple functions for calculating various standard deviations is presented. The spectra from the Zhao, Jiang, et al. (2016) study for slab events scaled by the DMF values for other damping ratios vary smoothly with spectral period and have a trough at short spectral periods for a large event, a short distance, and high damping ratios. The relatively large between-event and within-site standard deviations are from the source and path effects.

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Ground-motion prediction equation and site effect characterization for the central area of the Main Syncline, Upper Silesia Coal Basin, Poland

Open Geosciences ◽

10.1515/geo-2018-0037 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 474-483 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Maciej Jan Mendecki ◽

Angelika Duda ◽

Adam Idziak

Keyword(s):

Ground Motion ◽

Central Area ◽

Site Effect ◽

Prediction Equation ◽

Motion Prediction ◽

Ground Motion Prediction Equation ◽

Ground Motion Prediction ◽

Coal Basin ◽

Ground Acceleration ◽

Upper Silesia

Abstract The aim of the study was to find the best model of ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) forecasting peak ground acceleration (PGA) caused by induced seismicity. The maximum values of PGA on the surface are a major seismic threat for the infrastructure, especially in the highly urbanized areas, such is the Upper Silesian Metropolitan Area. The forecasting equations were estimated based on the values of PGA, epicenter distances and mining tremor energy registered by 14 surface seismometer stations located in the central area of the Main Syncline of the Upper Silesia Coal Basin. Data were collected within the period from January 2010 to December 2016, and the total number of seismic events used in the calculations was 15 541. The final model predicted the PGA values and amplification coefficients representing the characteristics of the site effects under seismometer stations.

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Site effect assessment using KiK-net data: part 2—site amplification prediction equation based on f0 and Vsz

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering ◽

10.1007/s10518-011-9298-7 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 451-489 ◽

Cited By ~ 27

Author(s):

Cadet Héloïse ◽

Pierre-Yves Bard ◽

Anne-Marie Duval ◽

Etienne Bertrand

Keyword(s):

Site Effect ◽

Site Amplification ◽

Prediction Equation ◽

Effect Assessment

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Relationships between the lean content of joints and overall lean content in steer carcasses of different breeds and crosses

The Journal of Agricultural Science ◽

10.1017/s0021859600033943 ◽

1977 ◽

Vol 88 (1) ◽

pp. 193-201 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

A. J. Kempster ◽

D. W. Jones

Keyword(s):

Regression Line ◽

Prediction Equation ◽

Feeding System ◽

Prediction Equations ◽

Relative Precision ◽

Breed Type ◽

The Common ◽

Standard Deviations ◽

The Stability

SUMMARYDissection data for 753 steer carcasses from 17 breed-type x feeding system groups were used to examine the prediction of lean content in the side (half carcass) from the lean content of standardized wholesale joints. Different prediction equations were examined and the joints compared both in terms of predictive precision and the stability of their prediction equations between groups.The relative precision of the joints for predicting weight of lean in the side depended on whether or not the prediction equation included joint weight. With side weight and weight of lean in joint as independent variates, there was little difference between most joints in precision, and the smaller joints, shin and leg (hind shin) appeared to be best because they are convenient and easy to dissect. The addition of joint weight to the equation improved considerably the precision of all the joints except the shin and leg. The coast and top piece gave the most precise predictions with the trivariate equation (residual standard deviations about the common regression line computed ignoring groups, RSD overall, were 1·44 and 1·48 kg respectively) and the fore rib probably offered the best compromise between cost and precision (RSD overall = 1·82 kg).The stability of prediction equations between groups was influenced in a similar way by the inclusion of joint weight as an independent variate. The joints which gave the most precise predictions tended to have the most stable equations. The average biases between the actual group means and the means predicted using the trivariate equation computed ignoring groups were ± 0·46, ± 0·49 and ± 0·76 kg for the top piece, coast and fore rib respectively.

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