scholarly journals Pseudoprospective Evaluation of the Foreshock Traffic-Light System in Ridgecrest and Implications for Aftershock Hazard Assessment

2020 ◽  
Vol 91 (5) ◽  
pp. 2828-2842 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Gulia ◽  
Stefan Wiemer ◽  
Gianfranco Vannucci
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Monitoring Network ◽  
B Value ◽  
Traffic Light ◽  
B Values ◽  
Background Value ◽  
Light System ◽  
Aftershock Sequences ◽  
Aftershock Hazard

Abstract The Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence in California in July 2019 offered an opportunity to evaluate in near-real time the temporal and spatial variations in the average earthquake size distribution (the b-value) and the performance of the newly introduced foreshock traffic-light system. In normally decaying aftershock sequences, in the past studies, the b-value of the aftershocks was found, on average, to be 10%–30% higher than the background b-value. A drop of 10% or more in “aftershock” b-values was postulated to indicate that the region is still highly stressed and that a subsequent larger event is likely. In this Ridgecrest case study, after analyzing the magnitude of completeness of the sequences, we find that the quality of the monitoring network is excellent, which allows us to determine reliable b-values over a large range of magnitudes within hours of the two mainshocks. We then find that in the hours after the first Mw 6.4 Ridgecrest event, the b-value drops by 23% on average, compared to the background value, triggering a red foreshock traffic light. Spatially mapping the changes in b values, we identify an area to the north of the rupture plane as the most likely location of a subsequent event. After the second, magnitude 7.1 mainshock, which did occur in that location as anticipated, the b-value increased by 26% over the background value, triggering a green traffic light. Finally, comparing the 2019 sequence with the Mw 5.8 sequence in 1995, in which no mainshock followed, we find a b-value increase of 29% after the mainshock. Our results suggest that the real-time monitoring of b-values is feasible in California and may add important information for aftershock hazard assessment.

Two Foreshock Sequences Post Gulia and Wiemer (2019)

2020 ◽  
Vol 91 (5) ◽  
pp. 2843-2850 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelian Dascher-Cousineau ◽  
Thorne Lay ◽  
Emily E. Brodsky
Keyword(s):  
Puerto Rico ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Exact Result ◽  
Monte Carlo Sampling ◽  
B Value ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Traffic Light ◽  
B Values ◽  
Aftershock Sequences ◽  
Abrupt Changes

Abstract Recognizing earthquakes as foreshocks in real time would provide a valuable forecasting capability. In a recent study, Gulia and Wiemer (2019) proposed a traffic-light system that relies on abrupt changes in b-values relative to background values. The approach utilizes high-resolution earthquake catalogs to monitor localized regions around the largest events and distinguish foreshock sequences (reduced b-values) from aftershock sequences (increased b-values). The recent well-recorded earthquake foreshock sequences in Ridgecrest, California, and Maria Antonia, Puerto Rico, provide an opportunity to test the procedure. For Ridgecrest, our b-value time series indicates an elevated risk of a larger impending earthquake during the Mw 6.4 foreshock sequence and provides an ambiguous identification of the onset of the Mw 7.1 aftershock sequence. However, the exact result depends strongly on expert judgment. Monte Carlo sampling across a range of reasonable decisions most often results in ambiguous warning levels. In the case of the Puerto Rico sequence, we record significant drops in b-value prior to and following the largest event (Mw 6.4) in the sequence. The b-value has still not returned to background levels (12 February 2020). The Ridgecrest sequence roughly conforms to expectations; the Puerto Rico sequence will only do so if a larger event occurs in the future with an ensuing b-value increase. Any real-time implementation of this approach will require dense instrumentation, consistent (versioned) low completeness catalogs, well-calibrated maps of regionalized background b-values, systematic real-time catalog production, and robust decision making about the event source volumes to analyze.

Real-time discrimination of earthquake foreshocks and aftershocks

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Gulia ◽  
Stefan Wiemer
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Large Earthquake ◽  
B Value ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Main Question ◽  
Traffic Light ◽  
Background Value ◽  
The North ◽  
The Hours ◽  
Average Size

<p>Immediately after a large earthquake, the main question asked by the public and decision-makers is whether it was the mainshock or a foreshock to an even stronger event yet to come. So far, scientists can only offer empirical evidence from statistical compilations of past sequences, arguing that normally the aftershock sequence will decay gradually whereas the occurrence of a forthcoming larger event has a probability of a few per cent.</p><p>We analyse the average size distribution of aftershocks of the 2016 Amatrice–Norcia (Italy) and Kumamoto (Japan) earthquake sequences and we suggest that in many cases it may be possible to discriminate whether an ongoing sequence represents a decaying aftershock sequence or foreshocks to an upcoming large event.</p><p>We propose a simple traffic light classification (FTLS, Foreshock Traffic Light System) to assess in real time the level of concern about a subsequent larger event and test it against 58 sequences, achieving a classification accuracy of 95 per cent.</p><p>We finally test, in near-real-time, the performance of the FTLS to the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence, California: a Mw6.4 followed, about 2 days later, by a Mw7.1. We find that in the hours after the first Ridgecrest event (Mw 6.4, the b-value drops by 23% on average, when compared to the background value, resulting in a ‘red’ foreshock traffic light.</p><p>Mapping in space the changes in b, we identify an area to the north of the rupture plane as the most likely location of a subsequent event. The second mainshock of magnitude 7.1 then indeed occurred in this location and after this event, the b-value increased by 26 percent over the background value, resulting in a green traffic light state.</p>

Application of the Foreshock Traffic Light System to the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Gulia ◽  
Stefan Wiemer ◽  
Gianfranco Vannucci
Keyword(s):  
Size Distribution ◽  
Reference Value ◽  
B Value ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Traffic Light ◽  
Natural Systems ◽  
Background Value ◽  
Light System ◽  
The North ◽  
Average Size

<p>The relative earthquake size distribution, or b-value of the Gutenberg and Richter relationship, can act as an indirect stress meter in the earth crust, a finding confirmed in numerous laboratory studies but also in diverse natural systems.  In 2018, we analysed the average size-distribution of about 60 well-monitored earthquakes sequences showing that, after a mainshock with M>=6, the b-value increases by about 20% respect to the background reference value.</p><p>In 2019, based on such result, we hypothesized and demonstrated that it may be possible, under specific circumstances, to discriminate if an ongoing sequence is representing a typically decaying aftershock sequence or rather foreshocks to an upcoming larger event.  We proposed a simple traffic light classification to assess in near real-time the level of concern for subsequent larger event, and tested it against 58 sequences, reaching a classification accuracy of 95%.</p><p>The Foreshock Traffic Light System (FTLS) has been implemented in a pseudo-prospective test to the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence. Results are fully in line with the hypothesis: in this Ridgecrest case study, after analyzing carefully the magnitude of completeness of the sequences, we find that in the hours after the first Mw6.4 Ridgecrest event, the b-value drops by 23% on average, when compared to the background value, resulting in a red foreshock traffic light. Spatially mapping the changes in b, we identify an area to the north of the rupture plane as the most likely location of a subsequent event. After the second, magnitude-7.1 mainshock, which did occur in the low b-value region, the b-value subsequently increased by 26% over the background value, triggering a green traffic light setting. Here we will report on these findings, discuss additional case studies, criticisms raised and discuss physics-based mechanics that may allow us to understand and model the observations.</p>

Comment on “Two Foreshock Sequences Post Gulia and Wiemer (2019)” by Kelian Dascher-Cousineau, Thorne Lay, and Emily E. Brodsky

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Gulia ◽  
Stefan Wiemer
Keyword(s):  
Puerto Rico ◽  
Magnitude Scale ◽  
Traffic Light ◽  
B Values ◽  
Light System ◽  
Meaningful Analysis ◽  
Earthquake Sequences

Abstract Dascher-Cousineau et al. (2020) apply the so-called foreshock traffic-light system (FTLS) model proposed by Gulia and Wiemer (2019) to two earthquake sequences that occurred after the submission of the model: the 2019 Ridgecrest (Mw 7.1) and the 2020 Mw 6.4 Puerto Rico earthquakes. We show in this comment that the method applied by Kelian Dascher-Cousineau et al. (2020) deviates in at least six substantial and not well-documented aspects from the original FTLS method. As a consequence, they used for example in the Ridgecrest case only 1% of the data available to estimate b-values and from a small subvolume of the relevant mainshock fault. In the Puerto Rico case, we document here substantial issues with the homogeneity of the magnitude scale that in our assessment make a meaningful analysis of b-values impossible. We conclude that the evaluation by Dascher-Cousineau et al. (2020) is misrepresentative and a not a fair test of the FTLS hypothesis.

The foreshock-aftershock sequence of the March 20 1966 earthquake in the Republic of Congo

1970 ◽  
Vol 60 (4) ◽  
pp. 1245-1258 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Lahr ◽  
Paul W. Pomeroy
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Range ◽  
B Value ◽  
High Gain ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Confidence Limits ◽  
B Values ◽  
Aftershock Sequences ◽  
Successful Prediction ◽  
Seismograph Station ◽  
The Republic

abstract The activity associated with the Congo earthquake of March 20 1966 (mb = 6.5 to 7) was studied with emphasis on the time and magnitude distributions. The data were recorded at the Abéché, Chad, seismograph station operated by Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory. Over a period of about 70 days, 815 earthquakes with magnitude (mb) greater than or equal to 3.3 were recorded, and they form the basis for this study. The aftershocks are distributed with magnitude (mb) according to the formula long n = a - bm with b = 1.05 ± 0.07 at the 95 per cent confidence limits. The foreshocks have b = 1.06 ± 0.35 at the 95 per cent confidence limits. These b values are in general agreement with b values derived from other aftershock sequences throughout the world. Some authors have suggested that foreshocks may have a lower b value than background activity and that this difference might be used in earthquake prediction. In this paper, an evaluation is made of the limitations of this method of prediction. Assuming that such a difference in b values does exist, it is found that a closely spaced network of high-gain seismographs with wide dynamic range would be required to assure successful prediction.

Reply to “Comment on ‘Two Foreshock Sequences Post Gulia and Wiemer (2019)’ by Kelian Dascher-Cousineau, Thorne Lay, and Emily E. Brodsky” by Laura Gulia and Stefan Wiemer

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelian Dascher-Cousineau ◽  
Thorne Lay ◽  
Emily E. Brodsky
Keyword(s):  
Puerto Rico ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Monitoring System ◽  
Expert Judgment ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Real Time Monitoring ◽  
Traffic Light ◽  
Light System ◽  
System Output ◽  
Earthquake Sequences

Abstract Gulia and Wiemer (2019; hereafter, GW2019) proposed a near-real-time monitoring system to discriminate between foreshocks and aftershocks. Our analysis (Dascher-Cousineau et al., 2020; hereinater, DC2020) tested the sensitivity of the proposed Foreshock Traffic-Light System output to parameter choices left to expert judgment for the 2019 Ridgecrest Mw 7.1 and 2020 Puerto Rico Mw 6.4 earthquake sequences. In the accompanying comment, Gulia and Wiemer (2021) suggest that at least six different methodological deviations lead to different pseudoprospective warning levels, particularly for the Ridgecrest aftershock sequence which they had separately evaluated. Here, we show that for four of the six claimed deviations, we conformed to the criteria outlined in GW2019. Two true deviations from the defined procedure are clarified and justified here. We conclude as we did originally, by emphasizing the influence of expert judgment on the outcome in the analysis.

Contribution of continuous waveform processing to induced seismicity realtime monitoring during geothermal stimulation at Geldinganes, Iceland.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Grigoli ◽  
Sebastian Heimann ◽  
Claus Milkereit ◽  
Stefan Mikulla ◽  
Nima Nooshiri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Human Error ◽  
Moment Tensor ◽  
Monitoring Network ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Traffic Light ◽  
Real Time Processing ◽  
Time Processing ◽  
Advanced Analysis

<p>At Geldinganes Island, Reykjavik, Iceland a hydraulic stimulation was recently conducted to enhance the productivity of an existing hydrothermal well. An experimental cyclic soft stimulation concept was applied. Seismic risk was assessed with an appropriate monitoring network which was set up and operated before, during, and for some time after the stimulation activities. An advanced traffic light system was developed and operated for the first time in this setup.</p><p>A crucial element in such traffic light systems is the real-time monitoring of background and induced seismicity. During the experiment, real-time seismograms from the monitoring network were streamed over the internet to three different institutions (ISOR, ETHZ and GFZ), where they were analysed independently, with different combinations and setups of automatic, semi-automatic and manual methods. Both, classic pick based approaches and modern full-waveform methods were applied. Locations, magnitudes, and centroid moment tensor solutions were determined.</p><p>Many things can go wrong in real-time or near-real-time processing of seismic data. Sensor failures, transmission failures, timing issues, processing hardware failures, computational limitations, software bugs and human error, just to name a few. In a temporary network the challenges are additionally salted by the need to validate sensor responses, orientations, gain factors and site conditions in a short time frame between station setup and beginning of the experiment. Furthermore, tuning of advanced analysis methods can be difficult without example events at hand.</p><p>In this contribution, we would like to share our lessons learned in near-real-time processing of data from a heterogeneous temporary seismic network. </p>

Regionally Optimized Background Earthquake Rates from ETAS (ROBERE) for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (3) ◽  
pp. 1172-1190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea L. Llenos ◽  
Andrew J. Michael
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
San Francisco ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
B Value ◽  
Tectonic Activity ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Background Rate ◽  
Aftershock Sequences

ABSTRACT We use an epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) based approach to develop a regionally optimized background earthquake rates from ETAS (ROBERE) method for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. ROBERE fits parameters to the full seismicity catalog for a region with maximum-likelihood estimation, including uncertainty. It then averages the earthquake rates over a suite of catalogs from which foreshocks and aftershocks have been removed using stochastic declustering while maintaining the same Gaussian smoothing currently used for the U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM). The NSHM currently determines these rates by smoothing a single catalog from which foreshocks and aftershocks have been removed using the method of Gardner and Knopoff (1974; hereafter, GK74). The parameters used in GK74 were determined from subjectively identified aftershock sequences, unlike ROBERE, in which both background rate and aftershock triggering parameters are objectively fitted. A major difference between the impacts of the two methods is GK74 significantly reduces the b-value, a critical value for seismic hazard analysis, whereas ROBERE maintains the original b-value from the full catalog. We apply these methods to the induced seismicity in Oklahoma and Kansas and tectonic activity in the San Francisco Bay Region. Using GK74 gives lower overall earthquake rates but estimates higher hazard due to the reduction in the b-value. ROBERE provides higher earthquake rates, at the magnitude of completeness, but lower hazard because it does not alter the b-value. We test two other declustering methods that produce results closer to ROBERE but do not use objectively fit parameters, include uncertainty, and may not work as well in other areas. We suggest adopting ROBERE for the NSHM so that our hazard estimates are based on an objective analysis, including uncertainty, and do not depend strongly on potentially biased b-values, which was never the goal of the existing methodology.

scholarly journals Statistical analysis of aftershock sequences related with two major Nepal earthquakes: April 25, 2015, MW 7.8, and May 12, 2015, MW 7.2

2016 ◽  
Vol 59 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Prasanta Chingtham ◽  
Babita Sharma ◽  
Sumer Chopra ◽  
Pareshnath SinghaRoy
Keyword(s):  
Scaling Laws ◽  
Main Shock ◽  
B Value ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Nepal Himalaya ◽  
B Values ◽  
Aftershock Sequences

Present study describes the statistical properties of aftershock sequences related with two major Nepal earthquakes (April 25, 2015, MW 7.8, and May 12, 2015, MW 7.2) and their correlations with the tectonics of Nepal Himalaya. The established empirical scaling laws such as the Gutenberg–Richter (GR) relation, the modified Omori law, and the fractal dimension for both the aftershock sequences of Nepal earthquakes have been investigated to assess the spatio-temporal characteristics of these sequences. For this purpose, the homogenized earthquake catalog in moment magnitude, MW is compiled from International Seismological Center (ISC) and Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) databases during the period from April 25 to October 31, 2015. The magnitude of completeness, MC, a and b-values of Gutenberg–Richter relationship for the first aftershock sequence are found to be 3.0, 4.74, 0.75 (±0.03) respectively whereas the MC, a and b-values of the same relationship for the second aftershock sequence are calculated to be 3.3, 5.46, 0.90 (±0.04) respectively. The observed low b-values for both the sequences, as compared to the global mean of 1.0 indicate the presence of high differential stress accumulations within the fractured rock mass of Nepal Himalaya. The calculated p-values of 1.01 ± 0.05 and 0.95 ± 0.04 respectively for both the aftershock sequences also imply that the aftershock sequence of first main-shock exhibits relatively faster temporal decay pattern than the aftershock sequence of second main-shock. The fractal dimensions, DC values of 1.84 ± 0.05 and 1.91 ± 0.05 respectively for both the aftershock sequences of Nepal earthquakes also reveal the clustering pattern of earthquakes and signifies that the aftershocks are scattered all around the two dimensional space of fractured fault systems of the Nepal region. The low b-value and low DC observed in the temporal variations of b-value and DC before the investigated earthquake (MW 7.2) suggest the presence of high-stress concentrations in the thrusting regimes of the Nepal region before the failure of faults. Moreover, the decrease of b-value with the corresponding decrease of DC observed in their temporal variations can primarily act as an indicator for possible prediction of major earthquakes in the study region.

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