Cointegration between stock market indices: the case of the slovak and czech stock price indices

1999 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dawit Alemu Bemerew
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Slovak Republic ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Policy Coordination ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Cointegration Test

This paper provides an empirical investigation of long-term relationship between the stock market indices of the Czech and Slovak Republic. The empirical work applies log of weekly average data on the Czech PX - 50 and the Slovak SAX from September 1995 to December 1997. Empirical investigation is conducted by means of unit root tests and the EngleGranger methodology of cointegration test. The result from the unit root tests shows that individual stock indices are nonstationary - I(1). The result from the cointegration test shows that there is no long-term relationship between the two indices, even though, the strong economic ties and policy coordination between the two republics seem to be in favor of some cointegration.

scholarly journals Detecting and Date-Stamping Rational Bubbles in Asset Price: An Empirical Investigation in the Tunisian Stock Market

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 91
Author(s):  
Siwar Mehri Helali
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Empirical Application ◽  
Speculative Bubbles ◽  
Rational Bubbles

This study tests the existence of periodically collapsing speculative bubbles in the Tunisian stock market. We use the Phillips, Wu, and Yu (2011) and Phillips, Shi, and Yu (2015) approaches, based on right-tailed unit root tests, in order to explore the existence and to date-stamp the origination and termination of bubbles. An empirical application was conducted in the Tunisian stock market, using monthly data on stock price-dividend ratio, for the period running from January 2004 to December 2014. The empirical findings provide evidence for the existence of exuberance in the Tunisian stock market over the period and date-stamp its origination and collapse.

Macroeconomic Factors and Pakistani Equity Market”

2004 ◽  
Vol 43 (4II) ◽  
pp. 619-637 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Nishat ◽  
Rozina Shaheen
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Reverse Causality ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Equilibrium Relationships

This paper analyzes long-term equilibrium relationships between a group of macroeconomic variables and the Karachi Stock Exchange Index. The macroeconomic variables are represented by the industrial production index, the consumer price index, M1, and the value of an investment earning the money market rate. We employ a vector error correction model to explore such relationships during 1973:1 to 2004:4. We found that these five variables are cointegrated and two long-term equilibrium relationships exist among these variables. Our results indicated a "causal" relationship between the stock market and the economy. Analysis of our results indicates that industrial production is the largest positive determinant of Pakistani stock prices, while inflation is the largest negative determinant of stock prices in Pakistan. We found that while macroeconomic variables Granger-caused stock price movements, the reverse causality was observed in case of industrial production and stock prices. Furthermore, we found that statistically significant lag lengths between fluctuations in the stock market and changes in the real economy are relatively short.

ARE SHOCKS TO TOURIST ARRIVALS IN MOROCCO PERMANENT OR TEMPORARY?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Younesse El Menyari
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Source Countries ◽  
Linearity Test ◽  
Tourism Arrivals

The main goal of this paper is to examine whether shocks had a permanent or temporary effect on international tourist arrivals in Morocco for its top 8 source countries. For this purpose, we apply the Harvey, Leybourne and Xiao (2008) linearity test and the linear tests and non-linear unit root (Elliott, Rothenberg, & Stock, 1996; Hepsag, 2019; Kruse, 2011; Lee & Strazicich, 2004). The results show that the series with linear characteristics are tourist arrivals from UK and USA and those with non-linear characteristics are tourist arrivals from Belgium, France, Spain, Italy, Netherlands and Germany. The unit root tests reject the null hypothesis of a non-stationarity in tourist arrivals from all countries except the Germany. The implication of these findings is that the shocks had a temporary effect on tourism arrivals from 7 markets to Morocco. Therefore, Morocco's tourism sector is a sustainable industry as external shocks have not had long term disruption in the flow of tourist arrivals.

scholarly journals The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables On the Saudi Stock Market

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (12) ◽  
pp. 126-152
Author(s):  
Amani Mohammed Aldukhail
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Performance Indicators ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Time Deposits

This study aimed at exploring the effect of macroeconomic variables on the activity of the Saudi stock market for the period 1997-2017. Macroeconomic variables were: GDP, interest rate on time deposits, inflation rate. The variables of the Saudi stock market activity were: stock price index, market value of shares, value of traded shares. To achieve this objective, the researcher used the ARDL model for the self-regression of the lagged distributed time gaps. The most important results of the research are: The effect of macroeconomic variables on the performance indicators in the Saudi stock market is not important in the short term and is statistically significant in the long term according to the proposed models, so investors in this market can rely on macroeconomic variables in Predict the movement of the stock market and predict long-term profits and losses.

Long-term reactions to large stock price declines and increases in the European stock market: a note on market efficiency

2010 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 400-423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Achim Himmelmann ◽  
Dirk Schiereck ◽  
Marc W. Simpson ◽  
Moritz Zschoche
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Stock Price

REAL EXCHANGE RATE RETURNS AND REAL STOCK PRICE RETURNS IN THE STOCK MARKET OF MALAYSIA

2016 ◽  
Vol 64 (05) ◽  
pp. 1319-1349
Author(s):  
HOCK TSEN WONG
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
The United States ◽  
Test Statistics ◽  
Time Invariant

This study examines the relationships between real exchange rate returns and real stock price returns in the stock market of Malaysia. The Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt and Shin (KPSS) and Dickey and Fuller (DF) unit root test statistics show that all the variables examined are found to be stationary in the first differences. The constant conditional correlation (CCC)-multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) model shows that real exchange rate return of Malaysian ringgit against the United States dollar (RM/USD) and real stock price return of Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) are found to be negative and significantly correlated. However, there is insignificant correlation between real exchange rate return of Malaysian ringgit against Japanese Yen (RM/¥) and real stock price return of KLCI. Moreover, the CCC-MGARCH models show that real exchange rate returns and real stock price returns of some stocks are found to be significantly correlated. The KPSS unit root test statistics show that the time invariant conditional variances of real exchange rate returns and real stock price returns are mostly found to be stationary in the levels. There is no evidence of Granger causality between the time invariant conditional variances of real exchange rate returns and real stock price return of KLCI but some evidence of Granger causality between the time invariant conditional variances of real exchange rate returns and real stock price returns. There is a link between the exchange rate market and the stock market in Malaysia but not every real stock price return is significantly linked with real exchange rate return.

scholarly journals The relationship between macroeconomic factors and stock market volatility: empirical evidence from the Vietnam stock market

2013 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 86-100
Author(s):  
Kieu Minh Nguyen ◽  
Diep Van Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Stock Price Index ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Relationship

The main target of this study is to measure the relationship of macroeconomic factors to the volatility of the stock market in Vietnam (through stock price VN-index). There are four factors including the consumer price index (measure of inflation), the exchange rate of USD/VND and money supply M2. Research shows that the stock price VN-Index has a positive relationship with the money supply M2 and the domestic gold price in long term. On the contrary, it has a negative relationship with the inflation while it does not have any connection to the exchange rate and stock price index. In short term, the current stock price index has proportional to the stock price index last month and inversely proportional to the exchange rate. The estimated speed of adjustment indicates that the Vietnam stock market converges to the equilibrium about 8 months (adjusted approximately 13.04% per month) to reach equilibrium in the long term.

scholarly journals The Economics of the Name Change: Long-term Adjustments towards EU/NATO or Short-term Resolution of Political Uncertainty?

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 86-105
Author(s):  
Bojan Srbinoski ◽  
Klime Poposki ◽  
Ksenija Dencic-Mihajlov ◽  
Milica Pavlovic
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Eu Enlargement ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Market Reactions ◽  
Name Change ◽  
Stock Market Reactions ◽  
The Eu

North Macedonia and Greece resolved the 27-year country name dispute and removed the main hurdle for North Macedonia to start the accession processes towards the EU and NATO. The paper analyzes the stock market movements around several events related to the name issue resolution to uncover whether Macedonian companies experienced stock price adjustments according to the long-term benefits/costs of joining the EU/NATO. The dynamics of the market reactions suggest that the investors reacted systematically to the short-term political uncertainty created around the referendum rather than to the long-term perspectives of the EU/NATO integration. We integrate the knowledge from the literature which explores stock market reactions to EU enlargement/exit and political elections and provide contributions for researchers and policymakers.

scholarly journals Do Higher-Rated or Enhancing ESG of Firms Enhance Their Long–Term Sustainability? Evidence from Market Returns in Korea

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2664 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yeonwoo Do ◽  
Sunghwan Kim
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Firm Value ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Listed Firms ◽  
The Third

In this study, we investigate the effects of the level and changes in environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) rating, an index developed to represent a firm’s long-term sustainability, on the stock market returns of Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) listed firms over the period 2011–2018. We find that the changes in ESG ratings have statistically significant short-term effects on their abnormal returns. However, their impacts on short-term abnormal returns decrease some days after the disclosure and become negative in the third year. The results imply that investors in the Korean stock market do not view corporate social responsibility activities as a means of supporting their long-term sustainability, judging from the firm value for a long period after their rating. Rather, based on the effects of the changes on coefficient signs over the period—positive in the year and the year after, no effects in the following year, and negative in the third year and later—we can infer that the short-term oriented market sentiments of investors might worsen their long-term stock performances, thus deteriorating their sustainability and growth opportunities.

The Issue of Logistics and Its Correlation to Economic Growth in Turkey

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 66-80
Author(s):  
Berrak Erkumru Can ◽  
Dilek Temiz Dinç ◽  
Aytaç Gökmen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Turkish Republic ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller

Logistics is a considerable issue for the development of a state and its economy. Logistics is involved the forward and backward flows of goods and services from the point of production and point of consumption, and it is considerable for the development of the economy of a country. Yet, the aim of this paper is to review the correlation between the logistics sector of the Turkish Republic and its correlation to economic growth by employing Augmented Dickey Fuller-ADF, Phillips-Perron (PP), Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, Shin (KPSS), Elliott, Rothenberg and Stock Point Optimal, and Ng-Perron unit root tests. As a result, there is a bidirectional positive causality between logistics sector and economic growth in the long-term, but there is no causality for short term. Moreover, the novelty of this paper is that it is the most up-to-date study to research logistics and its correlation to economics in Turkey.

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