scholarly journals Responsiveness of Volatility Analysis of the Jakarta Islamic Index on Macroeconomic Variables

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 32-48
Author(s):  
Eni Susanti ◽  
Ratno Agriyanto ◽  
Musahadi Musahadi ◽  
Saifudin Zuhri
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Changes ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Response Data ◽  
Volatility Analysis ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This study aims to analyze the influence and response of the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) volatility to changes in macroeconomic variables. VECM was used to examine the long-and short-term effects, while IRF was used to analyze the JII response. Data were obtained from BPS, BI, and Yahoo Finance monthly from 2015-2020 using global macroeconomic fiscal variables, including inflation, BI and Exchange Rates, Industrial Production Index, World Oil Price, Malaysia Hijrah Shariah Index, and DJIM Malaysia Titan 25 Index. The results show that JII is influenced by inflation variables, BI rate, IPI, OP, MHS, and DJIM in the long term but not the exchange rate. Furthermore, it is influenced by BI rate, IPI, OP, MHS, and DJIM in the short term, while the exchange rate and inflation have no significant effect. Macroeconomic variable shock influence JII by 52,27% while the rest is influenced by other variables outside the model. This research implies that the JII index is very sensit ive to economic changes.

scholarly journals THE ISLAMIC CAPITAL MARKET VOLATILITY: A COMPARATIVE STUDY BETWEEN IN INDONESIA AND MALAYSIA

2013 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 391-415
Author(s):  
Muhammad Syafii Antonio ◽  
Hafidhoh Hafidhoh ◽  
Hilman Fauzi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Jones Index

This study attempts to examine the short-term and long-term relationship among selected global anddomestic macroeconomic variables fromeach country (Fed rate, crude oil price, Dow Jones Index, interest rate, exchange rate and inflation) for Indonesia and Malaysia Islamic capital market (Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) and FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Shariah Index (FHSI). The methodology used in this study is vector error correction model (VECM) for the monthly data starting from January 2006 to December 2010. The result shows that in the long-term, all selectedmacroeconomic variables except Dow Jones Index variable have significantly affect in both Islamic stock market FHSI and JII, while in the short-term there is no any selected macroeconomic variables that significantly affect FHSI and only inflation, exchange rate and crude oil price variables seem to significantly affect JII. Keywords : Islamic Stock Market, Jakarta Islamic Index, FTSE Hijrah Shariah Index, VAR/VECMJEL Classification: E52, E44

scholarly journals THE ISLAMIC CAPITAL MARKET VOLATILITY: A COMPARATIVE STUDY BETWEEN IN INDONESIA AND MALAYSIA

2013 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 377-400
Author(s):  
Muhammad Syafii Antonio ◽  
Hafidhoh Hafidhoh ◽  
Hilman Fauzi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Jones Index

This study attempts to examine the short-term and long-term relationship among selected global and domestic macroeconomic variables from each country (Fed rate, crude oil price, Dow Jones Index, interest rate, exchange rate and inflation) for Indonesia and Malaysia Islamic capital market (Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) and FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Shariah Index (FHSI). The methodology used in this study is vector error correction model (VECM) for the monthly data starting from January 2006 to December 2010. The result shows that in the long-term, all selected macroeconomic variables except Dow Jones Index variable have significantly affect in both Islamic stock market FHSI and JII, while in the short-term there is no any selected macroeconomic variables that significantly affect FHSI and only inflation, exchange rate and crude oil price variables seem to significantly affect JII. Keywords : Islamic Stock Market, Jakarta Islamic Index, FTSE Hijrah Shariah Index, VAR/VECMJEL Classification: E52, E44

العلاقة التبادلية بين سعر الصرف وأسعار الأسهم دراسة تطبيقية في سوق اسطنبول للأوراق المالية للمدة 2005-2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
سعدالله ألنعيمي
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Reciprocal Relationship ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Theoretical Interpretation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The study aims to analyzing the reciprocal relationship between the nominal exchange rate of the Turkish lira versus the U.S. dollar and the stock prices of the companies listed on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) expressed in the general market index for the period from 2005 to 2020 with 192 monthly observations, based on the traditional theory and the theory of portfolio balance model in theoretical interpretation for that relationship, aiming to identify the effect of the exchange rate on stock prices, as well as to analyze the causal relationship between those variables and to identify which of them is the cause or which is the result, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The research found that the exchange rate has a positive effect on stock prices in the long term, despite the emergence of the negative impact in the short term, but the long-term relationship has corrected the course of the short-term relationship with a time period not exceeding one month, in addition to proving that this relationship takes one direction. From the exchange rate towards stock prices, that is, the exchange rate is the reason and stock prices are the result, therefore the results of this research helps investors to predict future trends of stock prices depending on the exchange rate changes, and it also enables the companies, especially those with foreign transactions, to manage price risks the exchange rate in order to avoid its negative impact on its share price, as it represents an obstacle to achieving its main goal of maximizing the share price

On the asymmetric response of the exchange rate to shocks in the crude oil market

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 839-852 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huthaifa Alqaralleh
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Asymmetric Cointegration

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the nonlinear dynamics in the effects of oil price shocks on the exchange rate for a sample from the Group of Twenty (G20) over the period 1994:1-2019:1. Design/methodology/approach Using monthly time series data covering the period1994:1-2019:1, the author first use the non-parametric triples test of Randles et al. (1980) to ascertain the existence of asymmetric properties in the sample of exchange rates. Then the author used the nonlinear ARDL cointegration approach developed by Shin et al. (2014) to examine the reaction of these exchange rates to the oil price shocks. Findings This study has identified significant evidence that the exchange rate is asymmetrically distributed, with the effect that high appreciation of the exchange rate is followed by slower depreciation. The NARDL results support such asymmetry even more strongly because in the test the exchange rate is shown to react differently in the long term to positive and negative shocks in oil prices. Another major finding was that the speed of adjustment differed over the sample, as the cumulative dynamic multipliers effect highlighted. Research limitations/implications This change in direction and the employment of non-linear technique can be to obtain better insight into the model specification, which the author believes, will not only enhance the findings in the literature but also enhance forecasting and decision-making. Practical implications A practical implication of this change is the possibility that policymakers and participants concerned with exchange rate stability should intervene in the market to alleviate the unfavourable impact of oil price shocks on the exchange rate. Originality/value Addressing this nonlinear dynamic in the effects of oil price shocks on the exchange rate have at least the following two important reasons: asymmetry and regime change are types of nonlinearities that affect the market dynamics, especially, over marked sample period with such financial crises as the global financial crises of 2007, thereby violating the linear models. Adopting an asymmetric cointegration technique permits to incorporate cointegrated positive and negative components of the considered series.

scholarly journals PENGARUH VARIABEL MAKRO EKONOMI TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA TAHUN 2015-2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 88-99
Author(s):  
Feby Kinanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aims to analyze the effect of macroeconomic variables including the open unemployment rate, trade balance, inflation rate and the rupiah exchange rate against the dollar on Indonesian economic growth by using the ECM error correction model approach to see the long-term and short-term relationships that influence macro variables on economic growth. , in the long term the open unemployment rate variable, the trade balance, the inflation rate have a negative effect while the exchange rate has a positive effect, while in the short term the open unemployment rate, the inflation rate and the exchange rate have a negative effect while the trade balance has a positive effect.   Keywords: Economic Growth, Open Unemployment Rate, Trade Balance, Inflation, Exchange Rate

scholarly journals Analysis of The Effect of Gross Domestic Product, Exchange Rate, and Inflation on Balance of Payments in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (10) ◽  
pp. 361-374
Author(s):  
Muammar Rinaldi ◽  
Shinta Arida Hutagalung ◽  
Muhammad Fitri Rahmadana
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This study aims to analyze the effect of the short and long term gross domestic product, exchange rate, and inflation on Indonesia's balance of payments. The data used in this study are secondary data which is obtained indirectly with the period of 1995 to 2015. Data sources were obtained from Bank Indonesia and the Central Bureau of Statistics. The data collection method used in this study with the indirect method is documentation through recording or copying data from Bank Indonesia and the Central Bureau of Statistics. The analysis model used is Error Correction Mechanism (ECM). The results of this study indicate that the regression model of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) for the long term and Error Correction Model (ECM) regarding the effect of independent variables such as Interest Rates, Gross Domestic Product and Inflation Against the Dependent dependent variable in Indonesia, then it can some conclusions are presented, namely from several independent variables that are tried and included in the savings equation in Indonesia using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) for the long term and Error Correction Model (ECM) for the short term, namely the gross domestic product variable, the inflation rate, and exchange rate. In the long run there are 2 (two) significant variables, namely gross domestic product and the exchange rate. While inflation is not significant. For the short term, there is 1 (one) significant variable, namely the exchange rate. Thus, only exchange rate variables are significant in both the short and long term. With only 1 (one) significant independent variable both in the long term and short term, it can be concluded that the exchange rate in the long term and short term is the main determining factor that affects the Balance of Payments in Indonesia. In the long run, Independent variables such as Gross Domestic Product and the exchange rate on the dependent variable Balance of Payments in Indonesia have a significant effect on the dependent variable Balance of Payments. Whereas in the short run, the exchange rate variable has a significant effect, and for other independent variables such as the GDP variable and the inflation rate does not have a significant effect.

scholarly journals PENGARUH INFLASI, JUB, SBI, SERTA CADANGAN DEVISA TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH TAHUN 2017-2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 60-72
Author(s):  
Duwik Tri Utami ◽  
Fitrah Sari Islami
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Indonesia's economy refers to an open economy. In conducting international trade, countries must compare their currencies with currencies belonging to other countries. Where, the United States currency, namely the dollar, is still the standard of world exchange rates and is used in international transactions. The effect of fluctuations in the exchange rate of the rupiah with the dollar is the occurrence of depreciation or appreciation which will affect Indonesia's economic activities. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of inflation, the money supply (M2), the SBI interest rate, and foreign exchange reserves on the rupiah exchange rate in the short and long term. The variables that are thought to be able to influence changes in the rupiah exchange rate are the inflation rate, the money supply (M2), the SBI interest rate, and foreign exchange reserves. This research was conducted during January 2017 to December 2020, using the Error Correction Model (ECM). The result is a long-term and short-term relationship. In the short term, foreign exchange reserves and the money supply (M2) significantly affect the exchange rate. Meanwhile, in the long term, the SBI interest rate, money supply (M2), and foreign exchange reserves significantly affect the exchange rate.

scholarly journals The COVID-19 Process and the Exchange Rate Relation: An Application on Turkey

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eda Dineri ◽  
İbrahim Çütçü
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Health Problems ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Economic Changes ◽  
The World ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The recent shocks in supply and demand in the world are not due to unexpected economic reasons; in fact, they are related to Covid-19 that causes rapidly spreading global health problems and life threats around the world. While the global powers are dealing with the social problems created by Covid-19 pandemic, they should not neglect the economic changes created by this pandemic. The most important of these economic changes in developing countries with high fragility is exchange rates, because exchange rates can directly affect many macroeconomic variables, from inflation to foreign trade, from the balance of payments to interests. In countries with high fragility due to the effect of pandemic, economic uncertainty causes fluctuations in the exchange rate. Is the reason for the change in the exchange rate, the number of cases or economic risks that may occur due to possible health problems?In this study, the impact of the number of new cases and the number of new deaths for the process of Covid-19 pandemic on the exchange rate in Turkey is examined. The daily data consider the number of new cases, the number of new deaths and exchange rate for the period of 16.03.2020–06.05.2020. The first step of the analysis, the stationary of the series is tested by Lee and Strazicich (2003) unıt root test which allowed structural break. Hatemi-J (2008) Cointegration Test that allow two structural breaks and Hacker-Hatemi-J Bootstrap causality test are used in the analysis. In the results of the Hatemi- J (2008) cointegration test, there is a medium and long-term relationship, with under structural breaks between the number of new cases and the number of new deaths and the exchange rate. According to the results of the analysis, it can be concluded that the number of new cases and the number of new deaths have a significant effect on the exchange rate, causing uncertainty in the economy.JEL Classification: I19, F31, C22

HOW THE EXCHANGE RATE REGIME AFFECTS ADJUSTMENT TO LARGE OIL PRICE SWINGS IN OIL EXPORTING COUNTRIES

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
MAJED S. ALMOZAINI
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Exchange Rate Regimes ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Fixed Exchange Rate ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The aim of this study is to analyze how oil price shocks affect the economic growth of floating exchange rate regimes and fixed exchange rate regimes in oil-exporting countries with a ratio of oil exports to total exports exceeding 70%. Also, this study seeks to determine what monetary and fiscal policies both regimes apply in order to curb business cycles and reduce inflationary and recessionary gaps. The analytical study uses panel data for the period from 1991 to 2019, covering 24 oil-exporting countries, from the World Economic Outlook (WEO) database and World Bank. The econometric model is estimated by applying a panel VECM to examine the short- and long-term interdependencies in the macroeconomic variables. The results demonstrate that when there is a negative shock to the oil price, the exchange rate of the floating exchange rate regimes depreciates, money supply increases, and government spending decreases. In contrast, the exchange rate of the fixed exchange rate regimes fluctuates slightly; the money supply slightly decreases in the near, medium, and long term; and government spending decreases.

scholarly journals Determining a Dynamic Relationship Between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Study on Eurasia

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bekir Elmas ◽  
Ömer Esen
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Relationship

The stock price has a close relationship with some macroeconomic variables. As examples of the main macroeconomic variables can be shown that exchange rates, inflation, interest rate, growth rates. This paper empirically examined the relationship between the local stock market indexes and exchange rate (USD) in six Eurasian countries namely Turkey, Germany, France, Netherlands, Russia, France and India. The paper set out by testing existence of a long-term relationship between considered two variables using the Engle-Granger (1987), Johansen (1988, 1995) and Johansen-Juselius (1990) cointegration methods. Results of Engle- Granger cointegration test showed that there is no cointegration linkage between two variables under consideration. Furthermore, The Johansen cointegration test found that there is a long-term relationship between two variables (variables in the two countries). Under the VAR (Vector Autoregressive) and VEC (Vector Error Correction) models appllied the Granger causality test, revealed an unidirectional casual relationship between two variables in each of the six countries. In addition as regards the relationship While there is a unidirectional causal relationship running from exchange rate to stock market for four countries. However this relation is casual running from stock market to exchange rate for other two countries. According to the direction of the relationship these results that relationship between stock prices and exchange rate in four countries supports for the “Traditional Approach”. Furthermore, this relation also supports for the “Portfolio Approach” for other two countries.

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