scholarly journals The COVID-19 Process and the Exchange Rate Relation: An Application on Turkey

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eda Dineri ◽  
İbrahim Çütçü
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Health Problems ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Economic Changes ◽  
The World ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The recent shocks in supply and demand in the world are not due to unexpected economic reasons; in fact, they are related to Covid-19 that causes rapidly spreading global health problems and life threats around the world. While the global powers are dealing with the social problems created by Covid-19 pandemic, they should not neglect the economic changes created by this pandemic. The most important of these economic changes in developing countries with high fragility is exchange rates, because exchange rates can directly affect many macroeconomic variables, from inflation to foreign trade, from the balance of payments to interests. In countries with high fragility due to the effect of pandemic, economic uncertainty causes fluctuations in the exchange rate. Is the reason for the change in the exchange rate, the number of cases or economic risks that may occur due to possible health problems?In this study, the impact of the number of new cases and the number of new deaths for the process of Covid-19 pandemic on the exchange rate in Turkey is examined. The daily data consider the number of new cases, the number of new deaths and exchange rate for the period of 16.03.2020–06.05.2020. The first step of the analysis, the stationary of the series is tested by Lee and Strazicich (2003) unıt root test which allowed structural break. Hatemi-J (2008) Cointegration Test that allow two structural breaks and Hacker-Hatemi-J Bootstrap causality test are used in the analysis. In the results of the Hatemi- J (2008) cointegration test, there is a medium and long-term relationship, with under structural breaks between the number of new cases and the number of new deaths and the exchange rate. According to the results of the analysis, it can be concluded that the number of new cases and the number of new deaths have a significant effect on the exchange rate, causing uncertainty in the economy.JEL Classification: I19, F31, C22

scholarly journals The Impact of Russia’s Oil-Dominated Energy Economic Changes on the Exchange Rate of Russian Ruble – Chinese Renminbi

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 173
Author(s):  
Maoguo Wu ◽  
Yue Yu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Close Relation ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes ◽  
Pillar Industry ◽  
The Impact

Russia’s economic development has a close relation with China, due to geographical and historical reasons. This paper investigates whether the ruble – renminbi exchange rate changes accordingly when the pillar industry of Russia is drastically changing, and how the exchange rate changes and how it affects Russia’s economic development. In this paper, data of 7 variables spanning 122 months are selected based on related literature and availability of data. Regression analysis and empirical tests are carried out consequently. The results show that the energy price index represented by oil prices is negatively correlated with the exchange rate, and the explanatory power is as high as 41.1%. Following basic arbitrage methods and strategies, this paper verifies the feasibility of using arbitrage by comparing actual exchange rates with forecasted exchange rates. According to empirical results, problems witnessed in the process of ruble internationalization provides policy implications for China. China’s economy is utilized as an example to discuss the shortcomings of Russia’s economy. Related solutions are proposed.

scholarly journals A Study on the Pass-Through Rate of the Exchange Rate on the Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) Import Price in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 70
Author(s):  
Chaofeng Tang ◽  
Kentaka Aruga
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Import Price ◽  
Monetary Reform ◽  
Lag Effect ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Liquid Natural Gas ◽  
The Impact

The Chinese liquid natural gas (LNG) import price has been unstable because the stability of LNG import prices is related to changes in the exchange rates. This paper analyzes the pass-through rate of the Chinese Yuan (CNY) and Japanese Yen (JPY) on the Chinese LNG import price. The Time-Varying Parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model is adopted to verify the pass-through rate of the exchange rates on the LNG import price using the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Since September 2005, the JPY pass-through rate on the Chinese LNG import price has been decreasing while that of the CNY has been increasing. Notably, the pass-through rate of CNY began to exceed that of JPY after 2008. Moreover, since 2005, the lag effect of the CNY on the Chinese LNG import price became longer compared to JPY. If any new currency reform of the CNY is implemented in the future, then the impact of JPY on the Chinese LNG import price could be reduced and the lag effect of the CNY on the Chinese LNG import price could become longer. Therefore, the fluctuation of the CNY is becoming an important factor in understanding the movements of the Chinese LNG import price. This implies the significance of considering the effect of the exchange rate on an energy market when the market is influenced by a monetary reform of the importing country.

scholarly journals Remittances and The Real Effective Exchange Rate: Empirical Evidence from Kyrgyzstan

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Burulcha Sulaimanova ◽  
Daniyar Jasoolov
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Labor Migration ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Labor Migrants ◽  
The World ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

Since 2000 the volume of economic reasoned migration has been rapidly rising in Kyrgyzstan. The number of labor migrants currently working abroad counts around 600 thousand people or about 10% of the population of Kyrgyzstan. With growing pattern of labor migration, the amount of remittances has grown as well. According to the World Bank, Kyrgyzstan is on the first place in the world in terms of share of remittances in the GDP (34%) in 2016. The main remittance sending countries for 2005-2016 periods are the Russian federation and Kazakhstan. The large scale of migration outflow and remittances, making domestic economy of Kyrgyzstan dependent on external shocks, related with migration. For this reason, the purpose of this study is to examine the impact the high level of remittances inflow from labor migration on the exchange rates, particularly on the reel effective exchange rate of Kyrgyzstan for the period of 2005-2016. The empirical analysis was carried out with Cointegration model, and according to the results obtained, the remittances and real effective exchange rates have long run relationship.

scholarly journals PERANAN KEBIJAKAN MONETER DALAM MENJAGA STABILITAS PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA SEBAGAI RESPON TERHADAP FLUKTUASI PEREKONOMIAN DUNIA

2007 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-177
Author(s):  
M. Maulana Al Arif ◽  
Achmad Tohari
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The World ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

This paper analyzes the impact of the inflation and the world interest rate on the Indonesian economy and the effectiveness of the Indonesian central bank policy to adopt the domestic macroeconomic fluctuation.Assuming Indonesia as a small-open economy, the Stuctural Vector Autoregressive Model is utilized on the monthly data during the periode of 1999: 1 – 2004: 12 covering the main domestic macroeconomic indicator (output, price, money supply, interest rate and the exchange rate) and the world oil price and world interest rate as the disturbance source.The analysis provides 2 main results, first, the international variables do have impacts on the domestic variables fluctuation, implying the fragility of the domestic economy due to the external shock, second, the monetary policy is effective on supporting the economic growth and stabilizing the price level. However, the Bank Indonesia policy to stabilize the international shock via the exchange rate channel, contributes to a higher impact of the international shock on domestic interest rate.Keywords: monetary policy, business cycle, SVARJEL Classification: E52, E32, C32, F41

scholarly journals Methods of assessing the impact of dollarization on economic development

VUZF Review ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 12-25
Author(s):  
Оlena Chukurna
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Machine Building ◽  
Building Industry ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The article considers the transformation of the money function as a consequence of the impact of dollarization on the economic development of countries in the global context. The economic substantiation of the process of dollarization of the economy, which is connected with the function of money, is proved. The influence of dollarization on the macro – and macro levels of the economy is substantiated. Approaches to methods of estimating dollarization on the economic development of the country in the context of globalization are proposed. The article defines the degree of dependence of the machine-building industry of Ukraine on the processes of dollarization of the world economy through the use of the effect of transferring the dynamics of changes in exchange rates to the price dynamics in the machine-building industry. Using the ARIMA model, the effect of transferring the exchange rate to prices for mechanical engineering products is proved. The expediency of using the ARIMA forecasting model to predict the further spread of the effect of the change in exchange rates on prices. An approach is proposed to determine the sensitivity of domestic prices for the products of engineering enterprises to changes in the exchange rate through modified elasticity coefficients. It was determined factors affecting the size of the effect of transfer of the exchange rate on domestic prices for the products of machine-building enterprises.

scholarly journals The relationship between petroleum price and real exchange rate: an example of Iraq

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 12-17
Author(s):  
Dindar Saeed Saeed ◽  
Sadeq Taha Abdulazeez ◽  
Sarbast Kamal Rasheed ◽  
Rogash Younis Masiha ◽  
Diyar Hashim Malo
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Petroleum Price ◽  
Energy Product ◽  
The World ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Relationship

Petroleum is one of the world's most important economic products. It is widely accepted that petroleum is not only an energy product, but also a financial asset. Therefore, it is important to understand the dependence of petroleum prices on economic conditions and financial markets and how they can affect the world economy. The fluctuations in world petroleum prices affect the economies of petroleum importing countries through different channels. One of the most important of these influence channels is the exchange rate. Because changes in exchange rates cause different economic problems in fragile economies. Changes in petroleum prices affect the economic performance of any country through various channels. One of the channels of influence is exchange rates. Petroleum prices affect the transfer of income from petroleum exporting countries to petroleum importing countries through trade and thus determine the exchange rate. In this study, the Relationship between Petroleum Price and Real Exchange Rate in Iraq was examined by ADF unit root test, Johansen-Juselius cointegration test and Granger causality analysis. For the analysis, the Petroleum Price and Real Exchange Rate data of Iraq were taken from the official website of the World Bank and transferred to the Eviews 10 program and necessary analyzes were made. The results of the analysis were analyzed and interpreted in tables.

scholarly journals Web Intelligent for Forecasting Exchange Rate Currency using Clever Extraction Agent Combine with Financial Data Mining

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Khammapun Khantanapoka
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Financial Data ◽  
Exchange Rate Forecasting ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pattern Index

From the current economic climate results in fluctuations of currency exchange rates in all countries. Since the most countries use USD as the reference exchange rate. The exchange rate will change from day to day so variety of factors which affect the exchange rate forecasting in the exchange rates in advance are critical to evaluate for the impact of the economic system of each country. It is important for investment decisions, exports, and profitability in the money market. It was reported on website (www) in the daily exchange rate changes. We use clever search agent (CSA) gather information from financial website generate to financial data mining. Kohonen Neural Networks is the method to determine similarity of internet documents using pattern index of financial document. And Ontology Structure of Sentence is the method to determine keyword using pattern index of financial content. Both are important components of Financial Data Mining. It is analyzed for exchange rate forecasting about USD/ Pounds. Our experimental forecast exchange rates for currency's USD / Great Britain Pounds by compare three algorithms as fallows GA, Meiosis Genetic Algorithms (MGA). This research propose new algorithm is called Dash Predator Swarm Optimization (DP2SO) which are accurate in prediction than other methods in generation of Genetic algorithm (GA) 35.83-41.52% which it depend on the accuracy of the information in each factor which are important finance dataset. It will present the future trends of exchange rate to the individual website.

scholarly journals External Debt and its Impact on Exchange Rates in the Philippines

2022 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-103
Author(s):  
Mikayla Mendoza ◽  
Andrew Gonzalez
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The exchange rate is a crucial macroeconomic factor within emerging and transition economies. External debt is a driving force for the growth of an economy. This study then aims to determine the impact of external debt on the exchange rate of the Philippines by examining the impact of external debt accumulation on the Philippines' exchange rates. The researcher applies a correlational time series analysis in order to capture the impact of external debt, debt services on external debt, and foreign reserves on the exchange rate of the Philippines within the period from 1980 to 2019. The relationships between variables based on the developed theoretical framework are analyzed through multiple regression analysis. Empirical results show that external debt and debt services positively impact the exchange rate, while foreign reserves exhibit a negative relationship. The corresponding coefficients indicate that a change in any of the independent variables will cause significant but marginal fluctuations in the exchange rate in the case of the Philippines. The author concludes that external debt encourages the growth of exchange rates in the long run in the case of the Philippines due to its positive relationship. This implies that the Philippine government should aim to focus on more efficient external debt management strategies to enhance the value of the exchange rate of the Philippine Peso relative to other countries. Accordingly, the researcher recommends that the government take the necessary means to reduce the country's external debt to better the economy.

scholarly journals The Impact of Australian Consumer Price Index on the Exchange Rate of Australian Dollar - Chinese Renminbi

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 12
Author(s):  
Maoguo Wu ◽  
Yue Yu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Steady Increase ◽  
Australian Dollar ◽  
Chinese Investment ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the impact of Australian consumer price index on Australian dollar - Chinese renminbi exchange rate. As two major economies in Asia Pacific, China and Australia are conducting ever-increasing volume of economic transactions. Massive Chinese investment, particularly in properties, has caused steady increase in Australian consumer price index and the exchange rate of Australian dollar - Chinese renminbi. Recent slowdown of Chinese economic growth and Chinese investment in Australia caused both Australian consumer price index and the exchange rate of Australian dollar - Chinese renminbi to fall significantly. This paper utilizes data from May 2005 to January 2016 and empirically tests the relation between Australian consumer price index and the exchange rate of Australian dollar - Chinese renminbi. In compliance with classical theories of exchange rates, empirical results find that a negative relation exists between Australian consumer price index and the exchange rate of Australian dollar - Chinese renminbi.

scholarly journals Impact of FDI as Macroeconomic Variable on the Exchange Rates with Special Reference to the Selected Asian Countries’ Currencies

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2S10) ◽  
pp. 122-125
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Human Race ◽  
Macroeconomic Variable ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
The World ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Globalized World

Globalization has brought immense benefit for the welfare of the human race. For a globalized world, the economic integration of nations around the world is a prerequisite. This integration of economies has brought in the concept of international trade wherein the countries trade with each other. For a trade to be carried out the buyer has to pay the seller in currency that is accepted by the seller. As of now one of the widely accepted currencies is USD and the exchange rates of most of the currencies are determined in terms of USD. The exchange rate of a country is affected by many macroeconomic variables and one among them is the FDI. This paper has tried to analyse whether FDI as a macroeconomic variable affects the exchange rate of selected Asian countries' currencies. With the integration of economies around the world, it is important to know the factor responsible for the variation in the exchange rates. With this knowledge, the Governments and the Central Banks can plan their policies accordingly that are attractive to the investors. The study has considered countries such as China, India, Phillipines, Qatar and Singapore. The study has used regression to find out the influence of FDI inflows on the exchange rates of respective currencies and correlation has been used to find the extent of relationship between the variables considered. The results show that the FDI inflows affect the exchange rates of all the countries considered except Phillipines. Also correlation shows that FDI inflows and Exchange rates of Qatar are not related since Qatar follow fixed exchange rate regime.

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