scholarly journals Factors Affecting COVID-19 Transmission and Modelling of Close Contact Tracing Strategies

Author(s):  
Shahram Yazdani ◽  
Majid Heydari ◽  
Zeynab Foroughi ◽  
Hadi Jabali

Background: Close contact tracing is an essential measure that countries are applying to combat the epidemic of COVID-19. The purpose of contact tracing is to rapidly identify potentially infected individuals and prevent further spread of the disease. In this study, based on the factors affecting the COVID-19 transmission, a scoring protocol is provided for close contact tracing. Methods: First, the factors affecting the COVID-19 transmission in close contacts were identified by a rapid review of the literature. Data were gathered by searching the Embase, PubMed, Google Scholar, and Scopus databases. Then, by formulating and scoring the identified factors with two sessions of the expert panel, close contact transmission risk score determined, and a protocol for contacts tracing was designed. Results: Close contact transmission risk depends on the contact environment characteristics, the infectivity (virus shedding) of the sentinel case, and contact characteristics. Based on these factors, the close contact transmission risk score and contact tracing protocol were prepared.   Conclusion: The close contact transmission risk scores will provide the ability to contact classifications and developing specific tracing strategies for them. Given that there are not any specific treatments for COVID-19 and lack of universal vaccination, applying nonpharmaceutical measures such as contact tracing along with physical distancing is very crucial. Therefore, we recommended this model to the evaluation of exposure risk and contact tracing.

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Garcia Filho

We sought to evaluate contact rate reduction goals for household and close contacts and to provide preventive recommendations during the coronavirus pandemic. We applied an agent-based model to simulate the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 within household or close contacts through a social network of 150 nodes. there is no great difference in total infected people within modifications in number of links per node for networks with average number of links per node greater than three. For six nodes, total infected people are 149.85; for five nodes, 148.97; and for four nodes, 141.57. On the other hand, for three nodes, total infected are 82.39, for two nodes, 13.95; and for one node, 2.96. This model indicates a possible pitfall if social distancing measures are not stepwise suspended and close surveillance of cases are not provided, since the relationship between average links per node and number of infected people seems to be s-shaped, and not linear.


2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 404
Author(s):  
Desi Rofita ◽  
Evi Diliana Rospia ◽  
Dwi Kartika Cahyaningtyas ◽  
Catur Esty Pamungkas ◽  
Aulia Amini ◽  
...  

ABSTRAKWHO (World  Health  Organization) secara  resmi  mendeklarasikan  virus  corona (Covid-19)  sebagai  pandemi. Virus Covid-19 menyebabkan gejala seperti demam dan batuk, dan kebanyakan bisa sembuh dalam beberapa minggu. Tapi bagi sebagian orang yang berisiko tinggi (kelompok lanjut  usia  dan  orang  dengan masalah  kesehatan  menahun, seperti  penyakit  jantung,  tekanan darah  tinggi,  atau diabetes), virus corona dapat menyebabkan masalah kesehatan yang serius. Ada dua  jalur  utama  penularan COVID-19, yakni penularan droplet pernapasan dan penularan kontak dekat. Dalam rangka penanggulangan pandemi COVID-19 tidak hanya dilaksanakan dari sisi penerapan protokol kesehatan, namun juga intervensi dengan vaksinasi sebagai bagian dari upaya pencegahan dan Pengendalian COVID-19. Kegiatan vaksinasi masal ini bertujuan agar dapat terbentuk herd immunity (kekebalan kelompok) dan berkurangnya angka kematian akibat COVID-19 pada masyarakat.Jenis vaksin yang digunakan pada kegiatan vaksinasi masal ini adalah Moderna. Jumlah responden yang mengikuti kegiatan ini sebanyak 1.581 orang. Hasil pengabdian didapatkan bahwa jumlah yang melakukan vaksinasi sebanyak 1.581 orang yang terdiri remaja sebanyak 60 orang dewasa sebanyak 1497 orang dan lansia sebanyak 24 orang, diberikan vaksin sebanyak 1.536 orang, ditunda sebanyak 45 orang. Kata kunci: vaksinasi; covid-19; komunitas. ABSTRACTWHO (World Health Organization) has officially declared the coronavirus (Covid-19) as a pandemic. The Covid-19 virus causes symptoms such as fever and cough, and most recover within a few weeks. But for some people who are at high risk (the elderly and people with chronic health problems, such as heart disease, high blood pressure, or diabetes), the coronavirus can cause serious health problems. There are two main routes of transmission of COVID-19, namely respiratory droplet transmission and close contact transmission. In the context of dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic, it is not only implemented in terms of implementing health protocols but also interventions with vaccinations as part of efforts to prevent and control COVID-19. This mass vaccination activity aims to form herd immunity and reduce the mortality rate due to COVID-19 in the community. The type of vaccine used in this mass vaccination activity is Moderna. The number of respondents who participated in this activity was 1,581 people. The results of the service found that the number of people who registered for Pcare was 1,581 people, consisting of 60 teenagers, 1497 adults, and 24 elderly people, 1,536 people were given the vaccine, 45 people were delayed. Keywords: vaccination; covid-19; community. 


Parasitology ◽  
1995 ◽  
Vol 110 (1) ◽  
pp. 97-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. F. Lindo ◽  
R. D. Robinson ◽  
S. I. Terry ◽  
P. Vogel ◽  
A. A. Gam ◽  
...  

The epidemiology ofStrongyloides stercoraliswas studied in families of clinical (reference) cases and their neighbours at endemic foci in Jamaica. Thirteen foci were studied based on the place of residence of a reference case. For each household of a reference case, the 4 most proximal neighbourhood households (spatial controls) were included in the study. Out of 312 persons contacted 244 were followed up using questionnaires, stool examination and serology. Prevalence of infection based on stool examination was 3·5% and on ELISA 24·2%. Prevalence increased with age but was not related to gender. Reference cases were significantly older than the general study population. The prevalence of infection based on both serology and stool examination was significantly higher in reference than in neighbouring households (the reference cases, themselves, were not included in the analysis). Furthermore, prevalence of infection was highest among persons who shared a bedroom with a reference case and decreased significantly with increasing spatial separation. This is indicative of close contact transmission which has not been previously shown for a geohelminth, but which is common among microparasites.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haimei Jia ◽  
Minhong CHen ◽  
Hanwei Wang ◽  
Chenping Guan ◽  
Yangwei Chen ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: The ongoing outbreak of corona virus Disease-19 (COVID-19) is rapid escalation and global spread.The epidemiological characteristics and particularly its ability to spread in the human population of COVID-19 were uncertainty. We analyzed infection of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) and close contacts in Fuzhou, Fujian Province, and to understand the risk of infection and morbidity in different exposure mode. Methods: We investigated cases and their close contacts by face-to –face or telephone interview and conducted laboratory test on nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal swabs or anal swab for evidence of COVID-19 infection. Information on cases including the epidemiology, expose and laboratory were collected. Results: There were 72 patients of COVID-19 and 1 asymptomatic case were confirmed in Fuzhou. A total of 1159 close contacts were traced, the secondary infection rate (SIR) was 2.07% (24/1159), the median of interval was 12 days (rang 2-21 days). In the relationship between close contact and cases, the SIR of old people under care were the highest (28.57% ) than family members (5.52%), medical staff (3.23%), relatives (2.41%) and colleagues / classmates (1.67%), respectively( 2=534.38, P<0.00 ). Among the contact ways, the SIR of Nursing (nursing home) were the highest (28.57% ) than medical care (3.23%), family gathering (2.82%), same building (1.77%) and short talk or handle affairs (1.55%),respectively. The median of incubation period was 5days (rang1-12days). Conclusions: The COVID-19 has highly contagious. Timely and strict quarantine should be conducted for close contacts to reduce the possibility of community communication.


2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (50) ◽  
pp. 1355-1366 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikolaos I. Stilianakis ◽  
Yannis Drossinos

Transmission of respiratory infectious diseases in humans, for instance influenza, occurs by several modes. Respiratory droplets provide a vector of transmission of an infectious pathogen that may contribute to different transmission modes. An epidemiological model incorporating the dynamics of inhalable respiratory droplets is developed to assess their relevance in the infectious process. Inhalable respiratory droplets are divided into respirable droplets, with droplet diameter less than 10 µm, and inspirable droplets, with diameter in the range 10–100 µm: both droplet classes may be inhaled or settle. Droplet dynamics is determined by their physical properties (size), whereas population dynamics is determined by, among other parameters, the pathogen infectivity and the host contact rates. Three model influenza epidemic scenarios, mediated by different airborne or settled droplet classes, are analysed. The scenarios are distinguished by the characteristic times associated with breathing at contact and with hand-to-face contact. The scenarios suggest that airborne transmission, mediated by respirable droplets, provides the dominant transmission mode in middle and long-term epidemics, whereas inspirable droplets, be they airborne or settled, characterize short-term epidemics with high attack rates. The model neglects close-contact transmission by droplet sprays (direct projection onto facial mucous membranes), retaining close-contact transmission by inspirable droplets.


2018 ◽  
Vol 285 (1874) ◽  
pp. 20172613 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. W. Park ◽  
M. J. Farrell ◽  
J. P. Schmidt ◽  
S. Huang ◽  
T. A. Dallas ◽  
...  

The distribution of parasites across mammalian hosts is complex and represents a differential ability or opportunity to infect different host species. Here, we take a macroecological approach to investigate factors influencing why some parasites show a tendency to infect species widely distributed in the host phylogeny (phylogenetic generalism) while others infect only closely related hosts. Using a database on over 1400 parasite species that have been documented to infect up to 69 terrestrial mammal host species, we characterize the phylogenetic generalism of parasites using standard effect sizes for three metrics: mean pairwise phylogenetic distance (PD), maximum PD and phylogenetic aggregation. We identify a trend towards phylogenetic specialism, though statistically host relatedness is most often equivalent to that expected from a random sample of host species. Bacteria and arthropod parasites are typically the most generalist, viruses and helminths exhibit intermediate generalism, and protozoa are on average the most specialist. While viruses and helminths have similar mean pairwise PD on average, the viruses exhibit higher variation as a group. Close-contact transmission is the transmission mode most associated with specialism. Most parasites exhibiting phylogenetic aggregation (associating with discrete groups of species dispersed across the host phylogeny) are helminths and viruses.


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